Foster Hewitt Play-in Round: Halifax Citadels vs Hartford Whalers

[Rob Scuderi]

Halifax Citadels

GMs: Stoneberg & bluesfan94
Coaches: Anatoli Tarasov & Arkady Chernyshev
Captain: Keon
Alternate Captains: Flaman, Sutter

Roster
Bun Cook - Max Bentley - Sergei Makarov
Aurele Joliat - Milan Nový - Vic Stasiuk
Brian Sutter (A) - Dave Keon (C) - Bobby Rousseau
Igor Liba - Butch Goring - Ron Ellis

Paul Coffey - Fern Flaman (A)
Vitaly Davydov - Ken Reardon
Mike Ramsey - Ron Stackhouse

Terry Sawchuk
Evgeni Nabokov

Spares:
Lynn Patrick, LW
Robert Svehla, D
Brent Sutter, C

1st PP Unit
Joliat - Nový - Makarov
Coffey - Bentley

2nd PP Unit
Cook - Keon - Rousseau
Coffey - Reardon

PK Forwards
Keon - Rousseau
Goring - Joliat

Spares: Liba, Ellis, Cook

PK Defensemen
Ramsey - Flaman
Davydov - Reardon

vs

Hartford Whalers

Coach: Al Arbour

John Leclair - Peter Forsberg - Patrick Kane
Keith Tkachuk - Ron Francis (A) - Dino Ciccarelli
Charlie Simmer - Ryan Getzlaf - Corey Perry
Kirk Muller (A) - Derek Sanderson - Eric Nesterenko
Keith Primeau, John Tavares, Milan Hejduk

Chris Pronger - Ray Bourque (C)
Pat Stapleton - Vladimir Lutchenko
Taffy Abel - Brent Seabrook
James Patrick

Georges Vezina
Jonathan Quick

PP1: Pronger - Bourque - Tkachuk - Forsberg - Kane
PP2: Stapleton - Getzlaf - Perry - Francis - Ciccarelli

PK1: Pronger - Bourque - Sanderson - Nesterenko
PK2: Abel - Lutchenko - Muller - Francis
​

Click to read more...

 

[Johnny Engine]

Stoneberg: Flaman, Davydov and Ramsey look to be your stay-at-home guys on each pairing. Who gets matched up, respectively, with Leclair, Tkachuk, Ciccarelli, Simmer and Perry in front of the net? Are they up to the task? Why? Also, is Sawchuk more or less susceptible to a team that's going to attack him down low?

MadArcand: Stoneberg has an incredible amount of team speed, and your forward group, for the most part, does not. What does Arbour have planned to mitigate that possible issue?

 

[Stoneberg]

Stoneberg: Flaman, Davydov and Ramsey look to be your stay-at-home guys on each pairing. Who gets matched up, respectively, with Leclair, Tkachuk, Ciccarelli, Simmer and Perry in front of the net? Are they up to the task? Why? Also, is Sawchuk more or less susceptible to a team that's going to attack him down low?

As of now my plan is to go power on power with top units, which of course means I want Coffey out with Makarov and Bentley. I think Flaman is well equipped to deal with Leclair in front of the net (and whoever else on the powerplay) given his reputation as a tough, physical, stay at home type defenseman. Some quotes on Flaman:

Basing his game on discipline and a strong physical presence, Ferdinand Charles Flaman was one of the game's top stay-at-home defensemen in the 1950s. Although he contributed to his team's transitional game when needed, it was as an open-ice bodychecker and for his ability to clear opponents from around his goal that Flaman acquired his reputation.

The 5-foot-10, 190-pounder joined a team that featured the kraut Line of Schmidt, Dumart and Bauer up front and was backstopped by Frank Brimsek in nets. Flaman’s role was a simple one. As a stay-at-home defenceman he was charged with defending his territory against invaders by whatever means necessary.

With both the physique and the attitude needed, he did the job for the next three complete seasons. Flaman flattened forwards coming too close to the Bruins net and laid others out in open ice with body checks that made many opponents reluctant to return to his side of the ice. When it was bare-knuckle time, Flaman administered more than a few thrashings to pugilistic foes, carving out a reputation as one of the NHL’s top brawlers that would follow him for the rest of his career.

I think my second pairing is best suited to match up against Hartford's second line. While Reardon isn't a stay at home guy by any means, he is very physical and certainly capable of laying down some punishment in front of the net. Davydov, while not as imposing physically, is the far superior defensive player, and extremely tough as well. He's not afraid to engage opposing forwards, but will do so in a more cerebral way than Reardon.

Reardon:

He knew that the shortest distance from one point to another is a straight line. Able to anticipate the play, he usually managed to be at the right place at the right time, often making a significant impact in the process.

A devastating body-checker and one of the strongest men in the game, he carved out a reputation as someone to be avoided. There was a price to pay for intruding on his territory and very few trespassers got away without paying the consequences.

Davydov:

"For all his skill and meticulous execution, Davydov went unnoticed in comparison to power-looking defencemen like Nikolai Sologubov. But the future three-time Olympic champion was always quick to defend himself physically, and through a courageous struggle eventually took his rightful place on the USSR team."

"It was (undrafted coach) who re-made Davydov from a winger into a defender, a star of world hockey. He saw that the young player would not mind playing tough, often engaging opponents, and most importantly - was a fast skater, which is very important for a defender."

"Vitaly Davydov was the living embodiment of Dynamo Moscow. Fast, maneuverable, willing to sacrifice himself for his team, extraordinary will and dedication, with an inspiration not only to play but also to train, Davydov always served as an example for his teammates. He was a giant in spirit - nothing and nobody could stop Vitali."

The third line is the least menacing offensively, so I'm confident that Ramsey and Stackhouse can contain them with the help of our defensively capable forwards. Ramsey was an excellent defensive defenseman so he will obviously be the one patrolling the front of the net for this unit.

Ramsey was a very intelligent defenseman with a great understanding of the game. He was always in great position and always made a solid play and clearing the zone dependably. He also was an honest physical player - very tough in front of his net and a good open ice hitter. He was also recognized as one of the game's best shot blockers. His work ethic, dependability, and importance to the team made him a natural choice to serve as the Sabres captain after Mike Foligno's departure in 1990.

I'd also like to note that our defense is littered with quality shot blockers, which I think can also go a long way towards helping out against Hartford's strong net presence forwards. Ideally our speedy back-checking forwards and strong transition game will consistently limit Hartford's efforts to get the cycle game going.

I think Sawchuk's style matches up very well with a cycle and net front presence based attack. He has good size and excellent reflexes. Sawchuk himself believed his crouching style gave him a better chance against screened shots, and I believe based on quotes that it would also work well for scrambles in front of the net. A few quotes from EB's bio.

Sawchuk was a big man with exceptional reflexes. He chose to work from a bizarre ''gorilla-crouch'' style, with his head hung low and his arms sweeping the ice. This style allowed him to defend his goal against goal-mouth scrambles and screened shots. He was a fierce competitor.

Terry Sawchuk, one of the greatest goalkeepers the game has known. Sawchuk was a fairly big man, who had very sharp reflexes and his arms and legs moved like lightning in defence of his goal. He was a crouching type of goalkeeper and he thought this technique gave him a better chance against screened shots.

- '' Sawchuk was an angles goalie who wanted you to shoot. But, if you preferred to put a move on him, he was happy to oblige.'' - Jean Béliveau
- "You could throw a handful of corn at him and he'd catch every kernel" - Ted Lindsay
- "One of the fine things about Terry, is he's a stand-up goalie. He doesn't fall all over the ice. He stands there and waits and usually takes the shot with his glove or brushes it away with his stick. You'll notice that not many people get rebounds off Sawchuk on long shots. When the puck comes in he stops it and clears it quickly away from the cage." - Sid Abel
- ''Terry acted like he was triplets. He swooped from side to side, jumped up and down as if on a pogo stick and fielded shots like a Phil Rizzuto (New York Yankees all-star infielder).'' - A Detroit Sportwritter, resuming Sawchuk performance in the 1952 playoffs
- "Sawchuk was the greatest goalie I’ve ever seen, no doubt about it. He was the quickest I’ve ever seen." - Bob Pulford
- "The Uke (Sawchuk) was the best goalie I ever saw. Everything that a goalie should be!" - Gordie Howe
- ''(Sawchuk) is the best that ever played'' - Dave Keon
- ''He played so well. I can still see him standing on his head I can still see him challenging Hull shots after shot after night, I think Hull had 14 shots on him and it was such a courageous event he put on that night, just the way he came out, cut the angles. He knew he was going to get hit by that puck, but he just went out and did it anyway. He was black and blue all over his body after that night - Ron Ellis, talking about one of Sawchuk performance in the 1967 playoffs

 

[Stoneberg]

A few comments. Good Luck to MadA, I know neither of us expected to be here.

Goaltending:
Clear advantage for Halifax, not much to debate here.

First lines:
I think Makarov is the best offensive weapon in the series while Forsberg brings a more complete game. Forsberg's offense by vsX metrics are comparable to Max Bentley's, which put's Max significantly ahead of Leclair and Kane. Given this I'll compare Leclair to Cook, where Leclair certainly has the offensive edge by a little as well as a size/physicality advantage and Cook has more speed and is more of a factor defensively.

vsX - 10yr / 7yr
Forsberg - 82.1 / 90.3
Bentley - 80 / 90.4
Leclair - 71.2 / 81.7
Cook - 68.7 / 76.3
Kane - 60.4 / 77.2

In terms of speed, skill and offensive ability, Halifax has the clear edge in top units. Hartford has an edge in grit/physicality. Advantage Halifax based on the offensive gap.

Second lines:
I'd say Joliat is the best overall player on either second unit, while Francis has the edge offensively. Tkakchuk vs Novy is a difficult comparison and both fit in well with how their respective teams were built - I'm leaning towards calling this a wash but may be higher Novy than most. Ciccarelli certainly has a slight edge on Stasiuk offensively but I think Stasiuk's a better defensive player.

Halifax's line brings much more speed/skill as well as likely being better defensively thanks to Joliat, while Hartford's is much more physical and gritty. I'd call these units a wash.

Third Lines
Again Halifax has the best player on either unit in Keon, this time by a significant margin. Even before considering Keon's offensive ability is likely better than the numbers suggest as a result of the situation he played in, his 10yr vsX (70.7) matches up well with Getzlaf's (71.4), while Getz has a better 7yr peak by the numbers. Keon is world's better defensively and in the skating department, of course, while Getzlaf has the size and physicality.

Rousseau is at least on par with Perry offensively if we go by vsX numbers (Rousseau's are actually better for both 10 and 7 year), while being a much better defensive player as well. Rousseau has better wheels while Perry brings physicality.

Simmer certainly has a better offensive resume than Sutter and brings more hardware to the table but I think Sutter was tougher and likely brings a bit more of a defensive game and more toughness, certainly advantage Simmer here.

Advantage Halifax as an overall unit - both have different purposes though.

Fourth Lines:
I'd be surprised if either were a difference maker outside of special teams, but think Halifax's unit is more likely to chip in offensively at even strength and both are fairly strong defensively.

First Parings:
Clearly Hartford's biggest advantage of the series, however I do still love the fit Halifax has with Coffey in the transition game in this matchup, to take advantage of the clear speed/skill advantage Halifax has up front.

Second Pairings:
I believe Reardon is better than Stapleton by a more significant margin than Lutchenko over Davydov, despite what draft positions suggest. I'm sure I'll have to get more in to it but for now the advantage in a #3 defenseman outweighs that in a #4 defenseman - slight advantage Halifax.

Third Pairings:
I don't think there's a distinct advantage for either team here, certainly not enough to change the outcome of the series. One thing I'll note is that Halifax is pleased to have our best PK defenseman (Ramsey) playing limited minutes at even strength to conserve energy for the PK.

Coaching:
I'd call it a wash personally but I know others aren't as high on the legendary Russian tandem. Both fit well with their teams so I think any advantage Arbour may have here is negligible.

Special teams:
PP - Halifax has the more skilled and lethal top unit, but Hartford has better personnel up front on the second unit. Hopefully having Coffey play most of the PP can offset that for Halifax. Regardless, the first unit is more important and I think Halifax has the advantage.

PK - I'd give Halifax the advantage in top forward units here as well thanks in large part to Keon. Joliat is also the best player on either second unit in terms of forwards as well. Hartford's top pairing is certainly better, but Ramsey is a strong PK specialist and will be well rested at even strength. Slight advantage to Halifax for personnel up front providing opportunity for shorthanded counter-punches.

Overall
-Halifax has more speed, skill, and offensive punch. Hopefully the Citadels can take advantage of Hartford's slower personnel off the rush and in the transition game, through both producing and drawing penalties to get our lethal top PP unit out there.
-Halifax has a distinct advantage between the pipes - and Sawchuk's style matches up well with traffic and scrambles in front of the net.
-Halifax has the best on each forward unit 1-3.

-Hartford has a better top pairing, and better defensive group as a result.
-Hartford is a more physical team up front, albeit slower. As discussed in reply to Johnny yesterday, I think Halifax has the personnel to bust the cycle game frequently enough, as well as the back checking forwards and transition game to limit cycle opportunities as much as possible.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Does Kane's vs.X score include this year? At this point I think it's fair to say he will at minimum get a score of 100 (likely it will be higher).

 

[Stoneberg]

Does Kane's vs.X score include this year? At this point I think it's fair to say he will at minimum get a score of 100 (likely it will be higher).

Good point, no it doesn't. Only through 2015 so he will of course be due quite a jump. I'm not as familiar as many are with vsX so I'm not sure exactly where this year will put Kane's numbers. Either way I can't imagine him being anywhere near on par with Bentley offensively, but I could be mistaken.

Having taken a grand total of zero active players, the thought slipped my mind to account for the current season.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Good point, no it doesn't. Only through 2015 so he will of course be due quite a jump. I'm not as familiar as many are with vsX so I'm not sure exactly where this year will put Kane's numbers. Either way I can't imagine him being anywhere near on par with Bentley offensively, but I could be mistaken.

Having taken a grand total of zero active players, the thought slipped my mind to account for the current season.

I don't have the spreadsheet handy, we need to know his scores in his 10th and 7th best seasons to calculate

 

[markrander87]

I must say, having Dave Keon as your 3rd line C is quite a luxury. I wish I would have got my votes in, I have Halifax a lot higher then what they finished.

 

[overpass]

What a contrast in styles. Halifax's speed against Hartford's size.

It's interesting that Halifax has at least two forwards who struggled with the physical game - Max Bentley and Bobby Rousseau.

Hartford has four big, strong, physical centres to go against Bentley, and Bentley doesn't have a lot of muscle on his line. How will Max hold up?

Dink Carroll in the March 22, 1946 Montreal Gazette

Rousseau was notoriously soft as well - he was basically a special teams specialist after he left Montreal because he wasn't up for the physical play of the early 1970s NHL. He was good defensively against speedy wingers, but Hartford has tons of size on their left side.

 

[rmartin65]

This is an incredibly interesting match-up, and I am very interested to read the GMs' arguments, if they have the time.

They seem pretty even to me, talent-wise, but with drastically different styles.

 

[seventieslord]

Why is Halifax ranked so low? I don't see a real big weakness here, or any player that's really out of place except Vic Stasiuk, who's probably a guy that should have been squeezed out of a 2nd line glue guy role in a smaller draft. I think ideally you also hope to do better than Bun Cook on a 1st line for support, but it's not really that bad.

- Sawchuk is a top-6 goalie
- both scoring line centers are a little weak but they're not the catalysts for their line, not by a long shot. Makarov is a top-5 RW and Joliat is slumming it on a 2nd line
- KEON ON A THIRD LINE! And his wingers are just fine. This line has everything. I love Sutter with the softie Rousseau.
- ES specialist Ellis is a great 4th liner even in a draft this small, and no problem with his linemates either.
- Coffey's an average #1, Reardon is a low end but legit #2, and that's made up for by Flaman, an excellent #3.

how'd they end up in a play-in round? I'm not saying this is an outstanding team, but it's difficult to identify an area in which they're well below par.

 

[jarek]

Why is Halifax ranked so low? I don't see a real big weakness here, or any player that's really out of place except Vic Stasiuk, who's probably a guy that should have been squeezed out of a 2nd line glue guy role in a smaller draft. I think ideally you also hope to do better than Bun Cook on a 1st line for support, but it's not really that bad.

- Sawchuk is a top-6 goalie
- both scoring line centers are a little weak but they're not the catalysts for their line, not by a long shot. Makarov is a top-5 RW and Joliat is slumming it on a 2nd line
- KEON ON A THIRD LINE! And his wingers are just fine. This line has everything. I love Sutter with the softie Rousseau.
- ES specialist Ellis is a great 4th liner even in a draft this small, and no problem with his linemates either.
- Coffey's an average #1, Reardon is a low end but legit #2, and that's made up for by Flaman, an excellent #3.

how'd they end up in a play-in round? I'm not saying this is an outstanding team, but it's difficult to identify an area in which they're well below par.

Possibly the other teams are just better. I had Halifax 5th.

Pittsburgh, West Island and Colorado were going to be extremely tough to beat for the top-3 - they were my 1-3, in that order. Then I had Miami over Halifax, but ask me today and maybe I vote Halifax over Miami.

Admittedly, perhaps I didn't give enough credit to Halifax for their goaltending. It is the best in the division by a substantial amount, and blows out every other team after you get past Vezina and Gardiner.

It's actually really interesting that the top 2 goalies in the division are in the play in round for this division as well as the Bob Cole. I might need to re-evaluate how I value goaltending.

The difficulty is, where do you draw the line? Great goaltending can beat a better team, but how much does it impact a series? Chicago and LA have traded cups for a while in real life and neither team has anything less than average goaltending. The one shot winners have all had good goaltending as well.

 

[Sturminator]

how'd they end up in a play-in round? I'm not saying this is an outstanding team, but it's difficult to identify an area in which they're well below par.

The top four teams in the Hewitt are quite strong.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Why is Halifax ranked so low? I don't see a real big weakness here, or any player that's really out of place except Vic Stasiuk, who's probably a guy that should have been squeezed out of a 2nd line glue guy role in a smaller draft. I think ideally you also hope to do better than Bun Cook on a 1st line for support, but it's not really that bad.

- Sawchuk is a top-6 goalie
- both scoring line centers are a little weak but they're not the catalysts for their line, not by a long shot. Makarov is a top-5 RW and Joliat is slumming it on a 2nd line
- KEON ON A THIRD LINE! And his wingers are just fine. This line has everything. I love Sutter with the softie Rousseau.
- ES specialist Ellis is a great 4th liner even in a draft this small, and no problem with his linemates either.
- Coffey's an average #1, Reardon is a low end but legit #2, and that's made up for by Flaman, an excellent #3.

how'd they end up in a play-in round? I'm not saying this is an outstanding team, but it's difficult to identify an area in which they're well below par.

Victims of being in the best division, but you already mentioned the holes they have like Bun Cook and Stasiuk. Novy is not a top 50 Centre, and therefore is pretty weak as a #2. Doesn't help that Max Bentley is a weaker #1 at 26 teams. Bentley-Makarov are really skilled but really small.

 

[MadArcand]

Good luck to Stoneberg & bluesfan!

A short assessment:

Coaching:
I think Tarasov & Chernyshev are good (top-10 good), but not Al Arbour-good (I rank Arbour as 3rd-best after Bowman and Blake).
Clear edge Hartford

Goaltending:
Reverse of the coaching situation. Vezina is solid 10th-best goalie, but Sawchuk is around 5th. Quick is much better than Nabokov should it come to that, but I don't think either is likely to be a factor.
Clear edge Halifax

1st pairing:
Coffey - Flaman ain't bad at all, but Pronger - Bourque is in another universe.
Huge edge Hartford

2nd pairing:
Reardon is better than Stapleton, Lutchenko is better than Davydov.
Even

3rd pairing:
Ramsey is a clearly better Abel. I like Seabrook much more than Stackhouse. He's proven elite playoffs D-man.
Even

1st line:
Makarov is the best player on either line, Kane is just Makarov-wannabe. Though Kane's once again proven dominant playoff performer and winner. Leclair is plainly better than Bun Cook. Which leaves us with Forsberg vs. Bentley. Now, Forsberg's the better, more complete player, but what's more, he's a tough matchup for Bentley. In fact, Bentley has a fairly tough matchup against all my centers - they're all good to excellent defensively and much stronger and physically imposing. With that in mind..
Slight edge Harftrod

2nd line:
Again Halifax has the best player on the line in Joliat. Tkachuk is a good 2nd liner, with ton of size, strength & grit while being a quite good skater, but Joliat is a 1st liner. Dino and Stasiuk are both fairly weak for 2nd line and a wash, even though very different in role and style. Francis is much better than Novy however, and once agian Halifax's center is of the soft, skilled offense-only variety, matching up poorly with Hartford's centers.
Even

3rd line:
Very different roles. Keon is superb as 3rd line center. Getzlaf is good in offensive role, but overall doesn't really compare to Keon. Sutter's good defensively and tough, which he's gonna need against either Perry or Ciccarelli. Is he fast enough to keep up with Kane if dedicated to check 1st line? Simmer is very clearly better offensively. Rousseau is better defensively than Perry, but is poorly matched against my LWs - being notoriously soft and having problems handling physical play is really bad when you have to try to contain Leclair - Tkachuk - Simmer... In spite of Keon's excellence, I think
Slight edge Hartford

4th line:
Specialists and two-way players all around.
Even

PP:
Halifax's 1st unit is marginally better due to personnel up front, but 2nd unit is clearly in Hartford's favor.
Slight edge Halifax

PK:
Hartford's defensemen are much better. Keon's the best PKing forward, but Sanderson & Nesterenko are excellent specialists.
Slight edge Hartford

Overall I think while Halifax's team is indeed faster, it doesn't have a good matchup against my centers, its best checking RW is in for a world of hurt against my LWs and the dominance of Pronger - Bourque should be the decisive factor in this series.

 

[jarek]

Just looking over this, I don't believe the Russian coaching duo will do much line matching, if any. I do not believe they did so in real life so they shouldn't be expected to here. I'm surprised though that you'd want to go power on power when you have a stud defensive center in Keon who is able to punish the other team offensively in transition. Halifax's first line seems like one that would be better suited to let the other team come to them, although I'd understand if you'd want them to avoid more physical units.

Really interesting matchup either way, I'll think on this one more later.

 

[Sturminator]

So, this ended up being an extremely tight series, with the last set of votes (which seventies just forwarded to me) deciding the outcome. The teams were tied 9-9 in terms of winners picked, so the outcome went to the first tiebreaker (number of games), where Halifax prevailed by a narrow margin.

Halifax Citadels win the series in double overtime of game 7.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Not surprised this one was close. A shame one of them had to lose already; these teams would likely have home ice advantage next round if they were in at least one other division.

 

[BenchBrawl]

No three stars?

(not that it really matters now)

 

[MadArcand]

Good luck to Halifax going forward.



I hoped to do better than that, but alas. Still can't wrap my head around the 7th place, especially given that I didn't receive a single negative assassination. Oh well. Might just be the overpowered division as TDMM says.

 

[Iceman]

How close was the voting between the 2 bottom teams in the division?

 

[Sturminator]

How close was the voting between the 2 bottom teams in the division?

I will post full regular season voting results after the conclusion of the draft.

 

[Iceman]

I will post full regular season voting results after the conclusion of the draft.

Thanks!

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

Good luck to Halifax going forward.



I hoped to do better than that, but alas. Still can't wrap my head around the 7th place, especially given that I didn't receive a single negative assassination. Oh well. Might just be the overpowered division as TDMM says.

I had you higher, but your division was extremely tight. Patrick Kane backfired big time is what happenedd I think, despite people knowing he probably had an Art Ross wrapped up.

 

[MadArcand]

I had you higher, but your division was extremely tight. Patrick Kane backfired big time is what happenedd I think, despite people knowing he probably had an Art Ross wrapped up.

The draft just moved too fast, I expected the playoffs to start around the time NHL playoffs start, giving Kane the Ross.