Thanks for the kind words Dwight, though I'm not sure they're deserved haha. Here we go with my initial thoughts on everything:
Goaltending:
Massive advantage for Halifax – Sawchuk will be the key factor in weathering the storm of West Island’s first line. He’s known as a clutch playoff performer, so he can limit their damage then Halifax is looking pretty good throughout the rest of the lineup.
Coaching:
Decisive advantage for Halifax here as well in my eyes. Tarasov is a top 5 coach for me, and should be at least top 10 for anyone. The fact that he's reunited with his long-time partner in crime from the Soviet national team makes for a big gap in coaching between these two teams in my eyes.
First Lines:
No question, advantage West Island here. One saving grace for Halifax is that the top line will still give up chances as it isn’t noteworthy defensively as an overall unit. With Sawchuk holding the fort Halfax’s speed and transition game will be able to offset some of the damage this line will inevitably do. Hopefully the Lion's fantastic top line doesn't completely overshadow the fact that Makarov and Bentley should still be able to do significant damage as well.
I know Tarasov wasn't really in to matching lines, but hopefully Keon finds his way on to the ice against Gretzky frequently.
Second lines:
Joliat is far and away the best player on either unit and of course Oates is the clear cut 2nd best. I think Novy can arguably brings a similar level of offensive output to Martin depending on how folks value his domestic and international accomplishments, but have to give the slight edge to Martin between the 2 secondary weapons on these units. Stasiuk is the weakest offensive player on either line, but the size and physicality he can bring will be valuable in this matchup. I also think Halifax has the edge on the defensive side of things.
I’d call these lines a wash or give Halifax has the slight edge here as an overall unit, thanks to Joliat.
Third lines:
Both lines are certainly strong defensively, with Amonte likely being the weakest link in that regard. Halifax again has the clear cut best player on either line by a mile in Keon, who’s the best offensive and defensive player on either unit. In addition, Halifax also has the second best offensive player on either unit in Rousseau, who’s also very significantly better defensively than Amonte. I think Sutter also brings a bit more offense than Klukay, while Klukay is of course a much, much better defensive player.
Big advantage for Halifax here due to a large advantage offensively and probably at least a slight advantage defensively. Much of the depth scoring to offset the Lions top line will hopefully come from this line.
Fourth Lines:
Patrick has been slotted in for Liba as Halifax will need to squeeze out as much offense as possible from the bottom six and second pp unit. Patrick has good enough vsX numbers to be a top 6 winger in this draft (10 year: 67.9 / 7 year: 79.4), better offensive numbers than both of West Island's second line wingers. Patrick will be skating with a strong ES producer and two way player in Ellis, while both flank Goring who has surprisingly solid vsX scores (10 yr: 61.4 / 7 year: 67.8) in addition to bringing a defensive game and intangibles. I think Patrick is insulated well enough with these two that this line can punish the Lions bottom 6 in this series, especially their fourth line.
Frankly, I think Halifax has the 3 best players on either 4th line, and another big advantage here.
First pairings:
Coffey is the best defenseman on either pairing, while Flaman is the worst (which is to be expected in a paring of #1 & #3 vs a #1 & #2). I'd say Halifax still gets the slight edge here as a result of having a better #1 defenseman who fits perfectly in to the playing style of the team, outweighing the negative having the lesser partner.
AST's // Norris record
PC: 4X 1st team, 4X 2nd team // 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7, 9
ZC: 3X 1st team, 4X 2nd team // 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
RB: 1X 1st team, 3X 2nd team // 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12
FF: No 1st team, 3X 2nd team // 3, 3, 3, 5, 5
Second Pairings:
Again Halifax has the clear cut best player on either pairing in Reardon. I’m not even entirely sold on Patrick being better than Davydov in a vacuum, especially given his short career. Even if there was a gap, it certainly wouldn’t come close to offsetting Reardon (2X 1st team AS, 3X 2nd team AS) over Heller (1X 2nd team AS).
Huge advantage for Halifax here – hopefully the extra minutes the Citadels can give Reardon at even strength after shuffling the lineup can be a difference maker in this series. He’ll generally play with either Davydov or Ramsey, both of who are excellent fits with him.
Third Parings:
Both are solid enough, I can’t see there being a big difference maker here, maybe slight advantage for the Lions. The more Halifax can get Reardon out at even strength instead of Stackhouse, the better.
Powerplay:
The Gretzky Conacher duo remains a lethal force on the PP, but I would contend that Halifax has the remaining 4 of the top 6 weapons on either PP (Makarov, Coffey, Bentley, Joliat), while Novy is a bit of a weak link. Slight advantage to West Island in first units thanks to Gretzky, but I don't think it's a significant gap.
With Patrick injected in to the lineup Halifax has a significantly better second powerplay unit. I think the gap in second units is bigger than the one in first units, which probably makes the PP units close to a wash, all things considered.
Penalty Kill:
Advantage to Halifax on the forward units as they don't give up anything defensively while providing a much bigger shorthanded threat.
Slight advantage to West Island on the back end with Chara being the driving force.
I'd say the huge advantage for Halifax between the pipes with Sawchuk makes their overall PK unit more effective.
Reasons I think Halifax can win:
- Huge advantage between the pipes: Halifax has Terry Sawchuk and it's the playoffs.
- Halifax has the clear cut best player on every unit except for 1st lines and 3rd D pairings.
- Halifax's bottom six is world's better offensively and probably at least slightly better defensively - they should be able to do a lot of damage in this series.
- Halifax has the better coaching staff (who should be able to steer the players away from the distraction of Paulina Gretzky).
