Foster Hewitt Division 1st Round - Modo Hockey vs Montreal Shamrocks

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Modo Hockey
General Manager: King Forsberg
Coach: Glen Sather
Assistant Coach: Larry Robinson

Captain: Darryl Sittler
Alternate Captain: Chris Pronger
Alternate Captain: Danny Gare

Steve Shutt --- Sidney Crosby --- Jaromir Jagr
Anatoli Firsov --- Darryl Sittler (C) --- Danny Gare (A)
Gilles Tremblay --- Jacques Lemaire --- Bobby Rousseau
Fleming MacKell --- Keith Primeau --- Kevin Dineen
Alexei Yashin, Anze Kopitar

Chris Pronger (A) --- Jan Suchy
Shea Weber --- Eric Desjardins
Frantisek Tikal --- Al Iafrate
Glen Wesley


Bill Durnan
Chris Osgood

PP1: Firsov - Crosby - Jagr - Weber - Pronger
PP2: Shutt - Lemaire - Sittler - Desjardins - Suchy
PK1: MacKell - Rousseau - Pronger - Tikal
PK2: Primeau - Tremblay - Desjardins - Weber
PK3: Lemaire - Suchy


VS.

MONTREAL SHAMROCKS

Lester Patrick
Frank Patrick

Frank Mahovlich – Hooley Smith "A" – Frank Foyston "A"
Dean Prentice - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate
Herbie Lewis – Ken Mosdell – Jack Darragh
Vic Hadfield - Red Sullivan – John McKenzie

Ray Bourque "C" – Lionel Hitchman
Jacques Laperriere – Reed Larson
Jean-Guy Talbot – Yuri Liapkin

Bernie Parent
Mike Liut

Goldie Prodger
Jimmy Roberts
Corb Denneny


Power Play #1
Frank Mahovlich - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate - Ray Bourque - Reed Larson

Power Play #2
XXXX - Hooley Smith - Frank Foyston - Jean-Guy Talbit - Yuri Liapkin

XXXX will be filled with any of Jack Darragh, Vic Hadfield, or John McKenzie, depending on the situation.

Also, Andy Bathgate will take some time on the point on the second unit, depending on the situation.


Penalty Kill #1
Red Sullivan - Ken Mosdell - Ray Bourque - Jacques Laperriere

Penalty Kill #2
Hooley Smith - Herbie Lewis - Lionel Hitchman - Jean-Guy Talbot​

Click to read more...

 

[King Forsberg]

Will post some preliminary thoughts later/tomorrow morning. Good luck fellas.

 

[Dreakmur]

MONTREAL SHAMROCKS


Lester Patrick
Frank Patrick

Frank Mahovlich – Hooley Smith "A" – Frank Foyston "A"
Dean Prentice - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate
Herbie Lewis – Ken Mosdell – Jack Darragh
Vic Hadfield - Red Sullivan – John McKenzie

Ray Bourque "C" – Lionel Hitchman
Jacques Laperriere – Reed Larson
Jean-Guy Talbot – Yuri Liapkin

Bernie Parent
Mike Liut

Goldie Prodger
Jimmy Roberts
Corb Denneny


Power Play #1
Frank Mahovlich - Marty Barry - Andy Bathgate - Ray Bourque - Reed Larson

Power Play #2
XXXX - Hooley Smith - Frank Foyston - Jean-Guy Talbit - Yuri Liapkin

XXXX will be filled with any of Jack Darragh, Vic Hadfield, or John McKenzie, depending on the situation.

Also, Andy Bathgate will take some time on the point on the second unit, depending on the situation.


Penalty Kill #1
Red Sullivan - Ken Mosdell - Ray Bourque - Jacques Laperriere

Penalty Kill #2
Hooley Smith - Herbie Lewis - Lionel Hitchman - Jean-Guy Talbot


Forward Minutes

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
Hooley Smith | 14 | 3 | 3 | 20
Frank Mahovlivh | 15 | 4 | 0 | 19
Frank Foyston | 13 | 3 | 0 | 16
Marty Barry | 14 | 4 | 0 | 18
Dean Prentice | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13
Andy Bathgate | 15 | 5 | 0 | 20
Ken Mosdell | 10 | 0 | 4 | 15
Herbie Lewis | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13
Jack Darragh | 10 | 1 | 1 | 12
Red Sullivan | 8 | 0 | 4 | 13
Vic Hadfield | 8 | 1 | 0 | 10
John McKenzie | 8 | 1 | 0 | 10
TOTAL | 138 | 22 | 14 | 174

Defense Minutes

Player | ES | PP | PK | Total
Ray Bourque | 20 | 4 | 3.5 | 27.5
Lionel Hitchman | 16 | 0 | 3.5 | 19.5
Jacques Laperriere | 20 | 0 | 4 | 24
Reed Larson | 11 | 3 | 0 | 14
Jean-Guy Talbot | 14 | 3 | 3 | 20
Yuri Liapkin | 11 | 3 | 0 | 14
TOTAL | 92 | 13 | 14 | 119

 

[Dreakmur]

I guess I'll throw out the first comparison here... and we may as well start with the top-6 forwards.

Since it's the best non-biased system we have in place, I think a good place to start is Sturm's "weighted top-7 vs. X percentage" method of measuring offense. Sidney Corsby's column was not up to date, so I updated it using his formula (including this season as is stands now). For Frank Foyston, I used my consolidation study to create his percentages and plugged them into the Sturm's formula. Anatoli Firsov is impossible to rank in this.

Jaromir Jagr - 114.6
Andy Bathgate - 104
Sidney Crosby - 97.9
Marty Barry - 89.9
Frank Mahovlich - 85.5
Darryl Sittler - 84.1
Frank Foyston - 78.9
Hooley Smith - 78.8
Steve Shutt - 70.8
Dean Prentice - 68
Danny Gare - 61.1

Total Scores
Modo - 428.5 (+Firsov)
Shamrocks - 505.1

Would it be unreasonable to arbitrarily give Firsov a score of 80? If so, that would give Modo a score of 508.5 to the Shamrocks' 505.1, which is essentially a wash.

Since this is only a look at peak seasons, I think it should be noted that Jaromir Jagr has some very impressive seasons outside his top 7. Same could be said for Frank Mahovlich. Everyone else on the above list had peaks that lasted approximately 7 years.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Sturminator never updated his VsX table after tweaking the formula after complaints that 2 seasons from the late 50s had inflated scores under his old formula.

Hockey Outsider's table has the updated values, but isn't sorted by position: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=62891837&postcount=84

Anyway, Bathgate's VsX-7 score under the improved formula is 101.2

Your score for Foyston seems reasonable.

 

[Dreakmur]

Sturminator never updated his VsX table after tweaking the formula after complaints that 2 seasons from the late 50s had inflated scores under his old formula.

Hockey Outsider's table has the updated values, but isn't sorted by position: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=62891837&postcount=84

Anyway, Bathgate's VsX-7 score under the improved formula is 101.2

Your score for Foyston seems reasonable.

Thanks. That would slightly increase Modo's offensive edge in te top 6.

Modo has the edge on the top line and Shamrocks have he edge on the second. All things considered, including defensive play and physical play, I would think it is reasonable to call our units of top 6 forward approximately even.

 

[King Forsberg]

Coaching

This is one of the better coaching match ups of this ATD. Both grams have a fantastic set of coaches. I picked Sather to run my team because he is one of the most brilliant offensive minds hockey has ever seen. He will he able to get the most out Crosby, Jagr, and Suchy. Robinson has proven he can make defenseman play above their level with him behind the bench. He made Bryce Salvador look great in 2012 and has done the same for Marc Eduard Vlasic in San Jose. Not to mention how much he helped Stevens. The Patricks are a great set of coaches too. They should be able to run a good cop/bad cop duo and get the most out of your roster. I'd call coaching about even.

Top 6

I echo the sentiment that the top 6s are equal. Jagr is the best forward in the group and will have the puck a LOT. Crosby is extremely close to Bathgate after this current season he is having. My team doesn't have the defensive value that your top 6 has so I do think overall they are equal.

Bottom 6

I think I have a slight advantage here. Lemaire is certainly the best player either team has in the bottom six. Lemaire will he able to match up defensively and force your scoring lines to defend and play in the defensive zone. I like your third line as a pure checking unit more but I like the offense on my third line. Fourth lines I don't see anything that gives a big advantage to either side.

Defense

Ray Bourque is obviously the best of the bunch, no arguments here. Pronger's peak was comparable to Bourque in a sense but Ray had crazy longevity. Both units have good balance of stay at home guys and puck movers. Overall I think the group are fairly even. Your bottom paring is better and So is Bourque but I like my guys other than that.

Goaltending

I don't think back ups really matter in the playoffs. You have a clear advantage in Liut there. In terms of Parent vs Durnan you got the slight edge. Durnan had a little bit more in terms of non peak seasons but as a Flyers fan I know how good Parent was at his best, especially in the playoffs.

I'll go more into match ups and how I plan to win tomorrow.

 

[chaosrevolver]

Good luck to King in the matchup.

I hope to provide some thoughts now that my school year is done.

 

[Dreakmur]

In terms I coaching, Lester Patrick should be considered significantly better than Glenn Sather. Patrick is a top-5 coach here, while Sather is a middle-of-the-pack guy.

 

[VanIslander]

This is a good match-up for the Shamrocks. Here are ten edges that might win them the series:

1. Bourque-Hitchman is about as close to Kryptonite that a surging Jagr could experience;
2. Red and Pie are muck rakers (Hooley to some degree too) with no real equivalents on the other side so a guy like Pronger may blow his cool and sit a few times;
3. Bathgate vs. Firsov ought to net Andy some slappers;
4. The depth of playoff scoring with Lewis and Darragh on the third line is staggering;
5. Primeau at center and Dineen as a starter are simply out of their depth in an all-time playoff context, and will be lucky to just finish their shifts without being a liability here;
6. If injuries or suspensions become a problem, dressing any of Prodger, Roberts or Denneny will bring more than Yashin or Wesley (with one possible exception in Kopitar who has one huge postseason and probably should be starting with Primeau on his wing and Dineen in the skybox);
7. Facing two pre-1972 Euro stars in Firsov and Suchy means two question marks. Any team can handle one, but two in such key positions could very well benefit the opposition in an all-time best-on-best playoff context;
8. Mahovlich is arguably the greatest playoff performer in this series having five times been top-3 in playoff goals, assists and/or points and the big guy ought to be able to screen Dr. Strange-Glove at times, unless Pronger or Weber comes across from the other side of the ice, which'll open opportunities for linemates;
9. The coaching advantage with the Patricks against a player-friendly coach who engineered 4-man rush offensive plays to win by outscoring the opposition and, with the cast he has here, his top-6 has to do it most nights against a Shamrocks team with a great blueline and defensively-skilled centers;
10. More Stanley Cup championship experience.

 

[King Forsberg]

The blueprint for winning this series for my club will be a daunting offensive attack. Crosby and Jagr should play very well together. Crosby isn't the kind of guy that needs to constantly have the puck. That's the perfect kind of guy for Jagr. Shutt should be able to roam free and get in prime scoring position. Bourque may be kryptonite for Jagr but Jagr might be the kryptonite for Bourque. He and Crosby should be able to get a good cycling game going and wear Bourque down.

Firsov will carry the puck a majority of the time on the second line. Despite his amazing goalscoring he also could set his teammates up well. Sittler and Gare, mainly Sittler, should be able to check and chip in some goals along the way. My checking line adds some scoring punch with Lemaire but is also solid defensively. Three solid scoring lines with defense sprinkled in there.

My defense has more than enough offensive skill to compliment my offense. Suchy will help the transition game much like Coffey did for Sather in EDM. Pronger should compliment Suchy very well and handle bigger forwards. Weber has really solidified himself this season as a great second pairing d man. He may have yet another Norris Finalist season. He's proven once again to be able to put up points and play well with little support in Nashville. Leading the team in goals assists as well as being the best special teams player is quite a feat. His physical play should be a perfect fit with Desjardins.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

MONTREAL WINS in 7 GAMES

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

This one is surprising to me, I really liked the look of Modo Hockey team.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I liked Modo a lot.

Montreal is better than your average #6 team though; I think they were probably hurt in regular season voting by not having a finished roster.

 

[King Forsberg]

Thanks guys. I thought I had this one in the bag. Oh well I guess. Best of luck to Dreak and Chaos, you guys built a great team.