Podcast (Audio) Former NHL Exec: Draft Lottery 'Tragic' For Detroit, 'Disgrace' For League

[Steve Yzerlland]

Jamie & Stoney - Brian Burke - Jamie and Stoney - Omny.fm

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[SuperScript29]

We already knew the odds going into this, and we're not the only tankers to deal with this. The only major issue I have with this is some high end team could potentially get the top pick, that's the BS part about this draft.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

They just need to admit to themselves what they want out of the lottery. They play this game where they wax generous about how it helps the worst-off teams, then turn around and hand high picks to better teams.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The are way too cute with the lottery. Odds the way they are only somewhat make sense in situations where you have a huge number of drawings. They are absolute terrible when it's a once-a-year lottery that can completely change the course of franchises for the next ~20 years. The added stupidity is that there's no actual weight put on either winning previous lotteries or losing them. Meaning, they're not actually stopping situations where one team happens to win several years in a row, or another like Detroit keeps losing. The chances are low for one team to win a lot, but again when there's so few drawings it's something that can happen and takes a 100 or so years to 'even out'.

 

[simonedvinsson]

The are way too cute with the lottery. Odds the way they are only somewhat make sense in situations where you have a huge number of drawings. They are absolute terrible when it's a once-a-year lottery that can completely change the course of franchises for the next ~20 years. The added stupidity is that there's no actual weight put on either winning previous lotteries or losing them. Meaning, they're not actually stopping situations where one team happens to win several years in a row, or another like Detroit keeps losing. The chances are low for one team to win a lot, but again when there's so few drawings it's something that can happen and takes a 100 or so years to 'even out'.

I agree with this. I have no quarrel with Detroit losing the lottery, but I'd like to see a lottery system that limits previous winners.

 

[Marky9er]

I agree with this. I have no quarrel with Detroit losing the lottery, but I'd like to see a lottery system that limits previous winners.

The fact we're out, but Edmonton still has a chance is kind of mind blowing, right?

 

[jprenkert]

I have no issue with the lottery besides a team that is borderline playoff contender, should not be eligible. Make it the bottom 7 teams or bottom 8. Do i dislike that the wings dropped to 4th after being historically bad. Absolutely hate it. Understanding if any of the other 3-4 teams bumped us. Absolutely. Having a playoff contention type team win the draft lottery over others. FRIGGIN PISSED. Make it always bottom 6-8 teams in the lottery, then go reverse order after that. Worst team should really always get a top 3 pick.

 

[MBH]

Just go back to a one-team lottery.
The NHL wanted a TV event on the calendar. It's a shitshow anyway.

I don't care about Buffalo tanking for Eichel or McDavid. I don't. Why shouldn't they if they think that's what's best?
Look how shitty it's been for them when they try to compete. What's worse? Trying to lose for a season and losing? Or trying to improve for 3 seasons and losing?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I said this the night before the lottery, The results are inconsequential, the lottery is a total joke. And naturally, the stupidest outcome came to fruition, because the lottery is a joke.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

I agree with this. I have no quarrel with Detroit losing the lottery, but I'd like to see a lottery system that limits previous winners.

Limiting previous winners is just as bad. You can't consider all drafts equal, especially the top available player(s). A really bad team (wings for instance) could end up being punished by winning the lottery in a weaker draft year (pick isn't an immediate game changing impact player) even though they're still terrible and need help.

If a team can't turn it around after winning the lottery, it's that they need more help. I don't get what's hard to understand about it. The goal of the draft is to help teams get back to contention, hereby creating a cycle of good teams falling and bad teams climbing.

There are local cycles too (some teams stay stuck in mediocrity), and giving those teams a chance to push it around isn't necessarily bad. (although I do not necessarily think this deserves a chance at the first overall pick)

The only issue with this year is how teams that were otherwise playoffs teams (Toronto, Edmonton, Pittsburgh seem to be the most problematic ones) may end up having a chance simply based on a 5 games sample size.

That said, I do agree with the odds being dumb for a single annual event like this.

Imo, the lottery should be a combination of the old system (jumping X places) and the current (3 draws). So, for example, 3 draws to jump +8 spots (so half the non playoffs teams have a chance at 1st overall only) in the draft, with the first winner having priority over the 2nd winner if they end up on the same pick.

 

[Winger98]

Get rid of the lotto entirely. Never liked it, and I don't see a point to it. Some team wants to sell off and make a joke of themselves for a year? Okay, go for it. Have a crap team, and likely set yourself back five years with the hope you draft the type of guy who can make it worth it. Unless the team has a level of competence that goes beyond the ability to make the easiest selection in the draft, they are going to be a lousy team for awhile and that's the punishment for it. Yeah, Buffalo got Eichel, he's a great player. And? They are still a lotto team. Edmonton has been awful for years. Arizona? Same.

If you really want to dissuade tanking then just raise the cap floor a bit and force teams to spend.

 

[izlez]

The fact we're out, but Edmonton still has a chance is kind of mind blowing, right?

Alternatively, doesn't the fact that we're out of it and Edmonton still has a chance kind of shows that tanking doesn't work and having the top pick doesn't really help you out?

 

[Retire91]

I undertstand the concept of the lottery but add some rules to mitigate teams being over rewarded like Edm and teams being over punished like Detroit. Teams shouldn't be able to get multiple first over all in such a narrow time frame and teams shouldn't loose 9 spots over 4 years. And how on earth can a playoff team be elidgible for number 1 or 2. Its just insane if you are not going to address teams being to lucky or unlucky for half a decade in a row and you are going to give top 3 picks to playoff teams then the lottery is a joke and just need to go back to the way it was. Unfortunately no matter what they do we are still screwed because the time when it mattered is the time when it was F@#$% up. If I was the owner I would be making some phone calls and noise about this. This could have a lasting impact the team for two decades.

Detroit should not even have been eligible for moving back this year period after moving back 3 drafts in a row when all teams were already moved back due to expansion.

 

[Marky9er]

Alternatively, doesn't the fact that we're out of it and Edmonton still has a chance kind of shows that tanking doesn't work and having the top pick doesn't really help you out?

I think not. They have 2 MVP level players and are just 3 points out of 1st in their division. If Connor McDavid hadn't missed 10٪ of their games they'd likely be a 1st place team?

Vancouver made out pretty good though on that front.

 

[Bench]

Alternatively, doesn't the fact that we're out of it and Edmonton still has a chance kind of shows that tanking doesn't work and having the top pick doesn't really help you out?

Yes, they've successfully stopped full on tanking to target a player. Mission accomplished.

But they've also completely boned teams that are just bad and not trying to tank at all. Which is the vast majority of teams at the bottom.

They've removed the spider problem with a flamethrower and subsequently burned down the whole damn house.

 

[Dotter]

I've come to accept we are picking#4. All the bitching and whining isn't going to change that.

 

[Bench]

I've come to accept we are picking#4. All the bitching and whining isn't going to change that.

Usually that's the case, but this is different.

If fans make enough noise, teams will feel emboldened to speak up, too. And that could be the catalyst for changing the system.

This is a business and if they feel the current system is going to hurt the bottom line of their product, they'll change it.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

Team points % should be factored into how the the lottery odds are weighted. That's my big beef with the lottery. Instead, the NHL trots out the exact same lottery odds regardless of how actually bad and good the non playoff teams are.

OT, but IMO, same should be done with division winners getting knocked out of the PO's. Not every year are division winners the 24-27 worst teams in the league.

 

[Dotter]

Usually that's the case, but this is different.

If fans make enough noise, teams will feel emboldened to speak up, too. And that could be the catalyst for changing the system.

This is a business and if they feel the current system is going to hurt the bottom line of their product, they'll change it.

I think franchise owners and GM's have the voice.

 

[Bench]

I think franchise owners and GM's have the voice.

Exactly. And if the fans of those teams are upset and disgruntled with the product, the owners are going to press the issue with the league.

A struggling team failing to land a star player in the draft is a direct hit to their financial bottom line. This isn't only wins and losses, but millons of dollars at stake in playoff revenue and merchandising.

Owners aren't going to just take it on the chin if their fans lose interest in the product.

 

[Bench]

Oh and finally Brian Burke is a massive tool but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then, eh?

Don't sue me, Brian. You're not an actual tool, ok?

Tools are useful.

 

[ShanahanMan]

Don’t worry, they’ll change the format as soon as we’re no longer in the bottom 3.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I would be fine with limiting the top picks further, but I'm also not really against how it is now.

The rhetoric about how a "top team" or "high end team" is going to get #1 is some bullshit. Sixteen teams make the playoffs. If your team is not one of those sixteen, you're not a good team.

Nobody deserves the top pick. Just lose that mentality. Top picks are not rewards.

The top pick has to go somewhere, and it's the responsibility of the league to send it to a team that could use help. Most of the time, that team is in the bottom quarter. This time, that teams in the bottom half. Whatever.

All of the bottom half teams are getting good picks. On average, bottom quarter teams get better picks than 3rd quarter teams. And I think it's working out fine.

 

[Mlotek]

They just need to admit to themselves what they want out of the lottery. They play this game where they wax generous about how it helps the worst-off teams, then turn around and hand high picks to better teams.

Well here is the way I look at it.

Detroit at 31st had the 4th overall pick. They didn't win the lottery, still have the 4th overall pick, no reason to be upset.

No teams owns picks 1,2,3 until the lottery is done. Hence why I don't agree with the whole "we got screwed" attitude. It just screams of entitlement.

Why be mad over something that never belong to you nor that you can control?




Second, the odds of a team outside the bottom 7 getting the lottery win was the same as the placeholders.

Third, the 'qualifying' round is NOT the playoffs. The season was cut short and teams on the cusp still had a chance to qualify. I bet this board would have been up in arms had Detroit had 79 points but the wildcard was 81 with 13 games left that they got robbed of a chance at the cup.

Top 4 teams in each conference already qualified for playoffs and are only playing for seeding.

5-12 are playing to determine who qualifies for the final 4 spots.



So in summary:
1. Last place team does not own pick #1, they own pick #4 with a chance to win the lottery.
2. The odds of non bottom 7 team getting the win was same as placeholders.
3. Playoff qualifiers are not the playoffs.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

So in summary:
1. Last place team does not own pick #1, they own pick #4 with a chance to win the lottery.
2. The odds of non bottom 7 team getting the win was same as placeholders.
3. Playoff qualifiers are not the playoffs.

1. If the last place team owns pick 4 and so on multiple teams would own the same pick.

2. NIt sure what you’re saying here.

3. Playoffs are a series of games where the winner moves on to continue pursuing the championship and the loser goes home. Having had that opportunity they no longer are eligible for the draft lottery. Playins=playoffs, but with draft lottery eligibility, which is stupid.

4. the Pittsburgh Penguins could have theoretically been a 100+ point team. They are in the running for the best u18 player in the world.

number 4 is all that matters