Prospect Info: FLYguy3911's 2021 NHL Draft Board (The 2nd Most Anticipated Draft List)

[FLYguy3911]

Happy Draft Eve! Since @Magua is slacking, I will get this out there before Chuck trades #13 at 1 PM.



Skaters only. 88 in honor of my favorite player.

Five tiers doesn't seem like enough separation in a draft, but this is a weird year and everyone after 20 or so started to feel the same.

General feel on the tiers is as follows:

	F	D
Tier 1	Low-End 1st Liner/High-End 2nd Liner	#2
Tier 2	Solid 2nd Liners	#3
Tier 3	Low-End 2nd Liner/High-End 3rd Liner	Low-End #3/High-End #4
Tier 4	Solid 3rd Liners	Low-End #4/High-End #5
Tier 5	Likely Bottom 6/Outside Chance at Top 6	Low-End Bottom Pair/Extra

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

WL = Watch List of First Year Eligible Skaters, mostly Defensemen. Intriguing for one reason or another, but not enough to feel confident drafting them. Would make for good camp invites and general follows into future drafts and UFA periods. Didn't include anyone ranked by Bob McKenzie.

WL - RE = Watch List of Re-Entry Skaters. Same rules apply. Mostly guys I liked last year that went undrafted, but would still have interest in potentially signing. Many did not play this year or played sparingly so there is a decent chance they go undrafted again.

Column Headers:
Age = as of 9/15/20.
Consensus = Weighted Ranks of 20+ outlets.
Model = This is my amateur attempt at a Projection Model. It's weighted based on a few statistical models, EP Tool Grades, and Consensus Ranks to supplement the scouting portion.
NHLe = League Adjusted Production (per 82 games) Based on Patrick Bacon's Model
Ovr INV% = Estimated involvement in team offense in all situations (Player PPG/Team goals per game)
ES Inv% = Actual involvement in team ES offense (ES PPG/Team ES goals per game)

Hopefully my Google Sheet embeds.

Click to read more...

 

[Magua]

Wow. No patience, huh? Making me look bad. My shit ain't color coded either.

My ranking is similar but different enough where I don't mind some of the contrast. A few guys I was wondering if I was too aggressive on (Stankoven, for example, who doesn't fit the usual archetype), but I guess maybe not. I know we're in agreement that by ~15 shit hits the fan.

A guy I was just rewatching trying to figure out was Pastujov. You buck the statistics with that one because numbers-wise he's a top 20 prospect. I'm moving him all around. He's very skilled, maybe a little low % sometimes; his skating isn't good, but it's probably better than Lucius'. You ranked him about as low as you could for his tier. Just wondering how confident you are with that one.

 

[freakydallas13]

Are you worried about Lysell's lack of production? He's my guy, and hoping that he drops to us at 13.

 

[Magua]

Are you worried about Lysell's lack of production? He's my guy, and hoping that he drops to us at 13.

Yeah, it's hard to not see him top of my board, if he's there. He looked like a one-man army for Sweden with the puck at the u18s against his peers. He was pretty much the offensive engine of the team, although Rosen carried his own line too, albeit less dynamically. That assuaged some of my concerns with how tangibly productive he might be. You wanted him to have the puck, whatever strength.

It's pretty hard to not come away from his SHL games impressed by his tenacity and speed. The scoring is not where you'd hope it would be for his talent. But Scouching said it (and he likely saw more than me): it just felt like he wasn't really being rewarded for his energy and efforts in terms of teammates actually utilizing him. Lot of second and third fiddling going on. He's more than the off-puck forechecker/trigger man those games showed.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I want The Chaz

 

[VladDrag]

Happy Draft Eve! Since @Magua is slacking, I will get this out there before Chuck trades #13 at 1 PM.



Skaters only. 88 in honor of my favorite player.

Five tiers doesn't seem like enough separation in a draft, but this is a weird year and everyone after 20 or so started to feel the same.

General feel on the tiers is as follows:

	F	D
Tier 1	Low-End 1st Liner/High-End 2nd	#2
Tier 2	Solid 2nd Liners	#3
Tier 3	Low-End 2nd Liner/High-End 3rd	Low-End #3/High-End #4
Tier 4	Solid 3rd Liners	Low-End #4/High-End #5
Tier 5	Likely Bottom 6/Outside Chance at Top 6	Low-End Bottom Pair/Extra

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

WL = Watch List of First Year Eligible Skaters, mostly Defensemen. Intriguing for one reason or another, but not enough to feel confident drafting them. Would make for good camp invites and general follows into future drafts and UFA periods. Didn't include anyone ranked by Bob McKenzie.

WL - RE = Watch List of Re-Entry Skaters. Same rules apply. Mostly guys I liked last year that went undrafted, but would still have interest in potentially signing. Many did not play this year or played sparingly so there is a decent chance they go undrafted again.

Column Headers:
Age = as of 9/15/20.
Consensus = Weighted Ranks of 20+ outlets.
Model = This is my amateur attempt at a Projection Model. It's weighted based on a few statistical models, EP Tool Grades, and Consensus Ranks to supplement the scouting portion.
NHLe = League Adjusted Production (per 82 games) Based on Patrick Bacon's Model
Ovr INV% = Estimated involvement in team offense in all situations (Player PPG/Team goals per game)
ES Inv% = Actual involvement in team ES offense (ES PP/Team ES goals per game)

Hopefully my Google Sheet embeds.

Nice work Fly! I look forward to heavily critiquing this in 3 years time!

Seriously, I only did it one year, but I understand how much work this takes. Good stuff!

 

[Stizzle]

Incredible work as always. I haven't mustered the motivation to spend one second scouting this class. I'm officially on the @Captain Dave Poulin apathy team for the time being.

You are a legend.

 

[ted2019]

Where do you have Cossa going?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

@FLYguy3911 you rule, plain and simple. I have to get some videogaming out of my system today, and then I'll read this tonight and let you know how it compares to my own Draft List Hologram.

 

[DancingPanther]

Meh

 

[FLYguy3911]

Wow. No patience, huh? Making me look bad. My shit ain't color coded either.

I have things to do and people to meet today. It was coming out after midnight or not at all.

The colors are there to distract from the actual rankings.

A guy I was just rewatching trying to figure out was Pastujov. You buck the statistics with that one because numbers-wise he's a top 20 prospect. I'm moving him all around. He's very skilled, maybe a little low % sometimes; his skating isn't good, but it's probably better than Lucius'. You ranked him about as low as you could for his tier. Just wondering how confident you are with that one.

Not confident. I'm not very confident with any of my USA evaluations other than Hughes which is why I left guys like Boucher and Duke out all together. It was mostly a hedge against the skating and how it would play as a transition guy. The skill level is top notch though and at worst he's probably a really good triggerman on the PP. Tbh it kinda feels like my Foerster placement all over again which was probably light in hindsight.

Thinking out loud, I'd probably take him over two post-hype guys like Bolduc (another stat hedge) and Raty if I were the Flyers so there goes my list...

Are you worried about Lysell's lack of production? He's my guy, and hoping that he drops to us at 13.

It was enough to keep me from putting him in the top tier where his raw talent probably belongs. As Magua said, it's hard to believe he wouldn't be BPA at 13.

I want The Chaz

I don't have a good feeling. I wanted to bump him down a tier but it didn't feel right. I'm hoping someone else takes the chance before 13.

Where do you have Cossa going?

Not a goalie guy so I'll trust the experts. Button said he could go top 10 though, which would be a great outcome for the Flyers unless he was their target.

 

[wankstifier]

The scouting report on Zellweger on EP reads like fanfiction:

His posture is nearly perfect, with his hips tilted back, his chest over his knees...

 

[landsbergfan]

Skaters only. 88 in honor of my favorite player.

Nylander or Kane?

 

[GagneHanson12]

Klimovich isn't tier 1 I am literally shaking rn

 

[GKJ]

You allude that this list may be useless to the Flyers because they may trade the pick but also exclude the goalies which is what the Flyers would do if they’re there and we still have the pick anyways.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

This list f***s hard and efficiently.

 

[Flyerfan13]

Happy Draft Eve! Since @Magua is slacking, I will get this out there before Chuck trades #13 at 1 PM.



Skaters only. 88 in honor of my favorite player.

Five tiers doesn't seem like enough separation in a draft, but this is a weird year and everyone after 20 or so started to feel the same.

General feel on the tiers is as follows:

	F	D
Tier 1	Low-End 1st Liner/High-End 2nd	#2
Tier 2	Solid 2nd Liners	#3
Tier 3	Low-End 2nd Liner/High-End 3rd	Low-End #3/High-End #4
Tier 4	Solid 3rd Liners	Low-End #4/High-End #5
Tier 5	Likely Bottom 6/Outside Chance at Top 6	Low-End Bottom Pair/Extra

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

WL = Watch List of First Year Eligible Skaters, mostly Defensemen. Intriguing for one reason or another, but not enough to feel confident drafting them. Would make for good camp invites and general follows into future drafts and UFA periods. Didn't include anyone ranked by Bob McKenzie.

WL - RE = Watch List of Re-Entry Skaters. Same rules apply. Mostly guys I liked last year that went undrafted, but would still have interest in potentially signing. Many did not play this year or played sparingly so there is a decent chance they go undrafted again.

Column Headers:
Age = as of 9/15/20.
Consensus = Weighted Ranks of 20+ outlets.
Model = This is my amateur attempt at a Projection Model. It's weighted based on a few statistical models, EP Tool Grades, and Consensus Ranks to supplement the scouting portion.
NHLe = League Adjusted Production (per 82 games) Based on Patrick Bacon's Model
Ovr INV% = Estimated involvement in team offense in all situations (Player PPG/Team goals per game)
ES Inv% = Actual involvement in team ES offense (ES PP/Team ES goals per game)

Hopefully my Google Sheet embeds.

Thanks for taking the time to make and post this greatly appreciated

 

[macleish1974]

Tremendous thought put into this! Thanks a million!!!

Still going with Othmann. Unwaver-able. This kid wants to be a play driver on a line, he fits perfectly with Foerster. In fact at the World Juniors Try-outs they might be line-mates. He is as intense as Farabee. I am as high on this prospect as I was for Josh Morrissey, when we chose Morin. Though if the Flyers choose a center that would be understandable.

The Chaz still looks like a kid that got beat up every day in high school by a snarky kid named Cole

The only question is where is Winterton? Not top 88?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Nylander or Kane?

Nathan Beaulieu

You allude that this list may be useless to the Flyers because they may trade the pick but also exclude the goalies which is what the Flyers would do if they’re there and we still have the pick anyways.

I guess this is the year to do it if you have doubts about Hart.

The only question is where is Winterton? Not top 88?

Didn't play this year and didn't jump out at the u18s. Don't really have an opinion on him. He's really young so he may be worth a pick for that alone. Aside from the top guys, I'm just not ready to bet on OHL guys that didn't play this year. Could look stupid in hindsight, but I'm playing the odds here. I think Voit and Stillman are the only two non-consensus first rounders I ranked from the OHL who didn't play this year (Stillman played in the u20 Danish League ) but they are mostly profile bets.

 

[GKJ]

That was mostly in jest.

But I do think that’s what they do.

 

[DancingPanther]

Pretty lame that this list is the top 88. Whatever happened to the top 3911?

 

[Chinatown88]

Pretty lame that this list is the top 88. Whatever happened to the top 3911?

OnlyFans chick is the cost for his top 3911.

 

[DancingPanther]

OnlyFans chick is the cost for his top 3911.

That just might be worth it, tbh

 

[landsbergfan]

Hreschuk?

 

[DancingPanther]

Hreschuk?

God bless you