I think you're right on the mark.
Though they may finish better than 8th.
Depends on how well they adapt to Hakstol's system, and how the 3rd line and the defensive pairings jell.
One thing that may help this year is that the team will probably be set coming out of camp, and with Read and Umberger healthy, the 13th forward will be solid, Cousins is your 14th and they have some solid AHL+ types who can fill in for short periods. Last year they had to play hobbled players in Read and Umberger, marginal players like Akeson and a waste of roster space in Vinnie because they simply lacked depth in the organization (players like Cousins and Leier weren't ready).
Same on defense, even if they move Schenn, they'll have 7 D-men plus 5 talented prospects in the AHL. Compare to last year, Kimmo out, Coburn dinged, MDZ up and down, Alt hurt when he was the first call up, and so on.
Better PK, better backup goalie and better depth, all else held equal (not to mention Gagner on shootouts instead of Rinaldo), should add 10-12 points to last year's finish.