Flyers Playoff Chances

Larry44

#FireTortsNOW
Mar 1, 2002
11,956
7,288
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Philadelphia.html

Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances
Lost to Carolina 1-2, playoff odds down 3 to 4.4%

38GP - 35 points 14 17-7


To get over 90% chance (94.5% in this example), they'd need 99 pts.

To do that, need to go:
30W 10L 4OTL

This isn't happening.

Last year they made it with 94 pts

94 pts this year means going:
27-12 -5 but that only give a 34.5% chance acc. to this site's methodology.

It's almost over.
 

Vikke

ViktorAllvin twitter
Feb 22, 2004
16,334
3,461
Västervik, Sweden
twitter.com
I mean, obviously I want to see this team win, but let's face it, we won't anytime soon. So, ship out whatever we can at the deadline, try to get rid of the deadweight and speed up the "re-tool".
 

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
78,832
86,182
Nova Scotia
Time to start cheering for Ottawa, Colorado and Columbus wins so we at least pick bottom 6.

Just watch....we will start selling guys off...and start winning.

6-4-2 without Coburn

8-13-5 with him
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
49,215
21,617
Yep, time for Hextall's fire sale, used defensemen, buy one, get one free.
We'll even throw in an aging forward.
 

Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
55,735
42,730
Time to start cheering for Ottawa, Colorado and Columbus wins so we at least pick bottom 6.

Just watch....we will start selling guys off...and start winning.

6-4-2 without Coburn

8-13-5 with him

Guess the player:

8-5-1 without him.

6-12-6 with him.
 

Striiker

Earthquake Survivor
Jun 2, 2013
89,661
155,744
Pennsylvania
Time to start cheering for Ottawa, Colorado and Columbus wins so we at least pick bottom 6.

Just watch....we will start selling guys off...and start winning.

6-4-2 without Coburn

8-13-5 with him

Heh time to start? I've been cheering for everyone in the bottom 10 for a while now. We didn't have a chance since very early on and I've accepted that fate.
 

StandingCow

Registered User
May 15, 2010
3,813
6
Yea, I am not at all shocked... the most we were ever gonna be this year was a fringe playoff team that would probably get knocked out early.

At least this gives us a high draft pick and maybe an excuse for hexy to begin moving some of our bad contracts... if at all possible.
 

dats81

Registered User
Jan 22, 2011
5,670
1,597
Carinthia, AUT
The fact that the players themselves don't talk about it and even G has not taken position like last season already tells us that it is over.
 

Appleyard

Registered User
Mar 5, 2010
31,769
41,188
Copenhagen
twitter.com
These last few games have been frustrating. Easy points that we failed to capitalize on.

Since Vinny came back:

Lecavalier: 63.2% OZ starts

Laughton: 48.1% OZ starts
Schenn: 48.1% OZ starts
Simmonds: 43.9% OZ starts
Read: 39.7% OZ starts
Umberger: 39.4% OZ starts
Couturier: 37.3% OZ starts

He has 36 offensive zone starts in that time, 4th only to Voracek, Giroux and Raffl.

Schenn, Simmonds and Laughton have 25 each, Couturier, Read and Umberger all below 30.

Compare that to when all the lines were rolling (December 3rd to 23rd)

Laughton: 50.8% OZ starts
Schenn: 50% OZ starts
Simmonds: 47.1% OZ starts
Umberger: 46.2% OZ starts
Couturier: 45.2% OZ starts
Read: 45.1% OZ starts

What is really apparent when you delve into it is how much Simmonds has suffered since Vinny cam back... he has lost a minute of ice time and got far less favourable zone starts.

The funny thing is the Laughton line has been matching the Vinny line in Corsi since Vinny got back even with awful starts vs tougher opponents than they usually did:

Laughton: 47.8% CF
Simmonds: 60.3% CF
Schenn: 62.2% CF

Vinny: 54.9% CF
Bellemare: 53.2% CF
VandeVelde: 54.8% CF

Also Giroux has had his TOI cut by a minute since Vinny got back... yet has over 60% CF in that time.

Vinnys is only +0 since he came back despite getting the easiest minutes on the team by far vs favourable opposition.

You cant really have a go at Vinny himself... he has played well in that time in the minutes he has been given... but those extra minutes for the 4th vs easy competition in the OZone mean that the rest of the team, especially the 2nd and 3rd lines, are being put in positions that make it far harder for them to produce.
 

Larry44

#FireTortsNOW
Mar 1, 2002
11,956
7,288
They had around a 20% chance before contriving to lose to three teams they should and could have beaten.

That's why I posted this. It was never going to be easy, but there was a glimmer of hope before this winnable roadtrip. They needed everything to click on this trip and the homestand to follow like last year.
 

BillDineen

Former Flyer / Extinct Dinosaur Advisor
Aug 9, 2009
9,375
8,101
The fact that the players themselves don't talk about it and even G has not taken position like last season already tells us that it is over.

Last year this team was great at comebacks and believe in themselves. This year I think they realize Berube will continue with horrible decisions and they have almost given up.

Regardless, this team has 0% chance of a cup this year or next. I hope Hextall sticks with Berube until the summer and Berube overplays Vinny into a position where he can actually be traded.

By the end of the summer if we have a top pick, Vinny and Berube gone as well as one or more of Coburn, L.Schenn and Grossmann traded, I will be happy. (With 2 of 3 to be traded a next year's deadline).
 

flyershockey

Registered User
Oct 10, 2006
13,463
6,561
Since Vinny came back:

Lecavalier: 63.2% OZ starts

Laughton: 48.1% OZ starts
Schenn: 48.1% OZ starts
Simmonds: 43.9% OZ starts
Read: 39.7% OZ starts
Umberger: 39.4% OZ starts
Couturier: 37.3% OZ starts

He has 36 offensive zone starts in that time, 4th only to Voracek, Giroux and Raffl.

Schenn, Simmonds and Laughton have 25 each, Couturier, Read and Umberger all below 30.

Compare that to when all the lines were rolling (December 3rd to 23rd)

Laughton: 50.8% OZ starts
Schenn: 50% OZ starts
Simmonds: 47.1% OZ starts
Umberger: 46.2% OZ starts
Couturier: 45.2% OZ starts
Read: 45.1% OZ starts

What is really apparent when you delve into it is how much Simmonds has suffered since Vinny cam back... he has lost a minute of ice time and got far less favourable zone starts.

The funny thing is the Laughton line has been matching the Vinny line in Corsi since Vinny got back even with awful starts vs tougher opponents than they usually did:

Laughton: 47.8% CF
Simmonds: 60.3% CF
Schenn: 62.2% CF

Vinny: 54.9% CF
Bellemare: 53.2% CF
VandeVelde: 54.8% CF

Also Giroux has had his TOI cut by a minute since Vinny got back... yet has over 60% CF in that time.

Vinnys is only +0 since he came back despite getting the easiest minutes on the team by far vs favourable opposition.

You cant really have a go at Vinny himself... he has played well in that time in the minutes he has been given... but those extra minutes for the 4th vs easy competition in the OZone mean that the rest of the team, especially the 2nd and 3rd lines, are being put in positions that make it far harder for them to produce.

It's pretty sickening to think about, unless they're force feeding him offensive chances in the hopes that someone will bite at the trade deadline.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
187,080
39,111
It's also who they have to pass. Boston and Columbus are two teams not in the playoffs today that almost assuredly will be at the end of the season. Who else does this team pass that is currently in and the teams that aren't in otherwise will not be? Columbus has 3 games in hand.
 

ericWONT

Ron Hakstol
Feb 7, 2014
291
0
Delaware/Philly
does this really need to be a thread?

Actually, you know what, with the bipolar fans that we have here in Philadelphia, I think it is necessary.

We win 2 in a row = "We can really turn this year around! Remember 2010?! We just need to get in, we really have a good shot at the Cup!"

We lose 2 in a row = "We're tanking, let's go get McDavid. Fire Berube. Trade Coburn. Trade Giroux. Trade Snider. Trade the Wells Fargo. I hate this team. I'm jumping off a cliff."

It's necessary to tell people that our playoff hopes are past bleak and are basically 0 now. Everyone just needs to relax and realize it's a blown year. Get a good pick and come back next year ready to rock and roll. Every year that passes just gives our prospects more time to warm up to the big leagues. If/when our guys down in the AHL develop like they're supposed to, the biggest glaring fault of this team can be fixed and games will then be winnable.
 

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