Flyers Goalie Prospects: A Position of Strength

[LastWordArmy]

A look at what the Flyers have in the goalie pipeline.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/08/18/flyers-surprisingly-deep-goalie-system/

Click to read more...

 

[PEI Flyers Fan]

A small correction - Stolarz was drafted out of Corpus Christi, not London. He was already their property during the OHL playoff run.

 

[Hockeypete49]

Thank you for the report.

 

[Curufinwe]

Good article.

One other small correction - Hart was measured at 6'1", 180 at the combine.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...results-measurements-highlights-top-prospects

 

[NYCFlyer]

Who is our resident goalie guru? Is there a metric besides save percentage and gaa that experts use to evaluate goalies? My issue is that some teams play a stifling defense that doesn't yield many good scoring chances and teams get frustrated and throw a lot of easy shots at a goalie that inflate their save percentage. Other teams play run and gun and leave the goalie high and dry trying to make tough saves all game. Also and probably more importantly a great goalie is tough under the mental pressure of tight games and important games giving confidence to the rest of the team that he has their mistakes covered.
Given our plethora of goalie prospects i could use a little insight.

 

[Ernest95]

Nice article, thanks for posting!

 

[FLYguy3911]

Who is our resident goalie guru? Is there a metric besides save percentage and gaa that experts use to evaluate goalies? My issue is that some teams play a stifling defense that doesn't yield many good scoring chances and teams get frustrated and throw a lot of easy shots at a goalie that inflate their save percentage. Other teams play run and gun and leave the goalie high and dry trying to make tough saves all game. Also and probably more importantly a great goalie is tough under the mental pressure of tight games and important games giving confidence to the rest of the team that he has their mistakes covered.
Given our plethora of goalie prospects i could use a little insight.

The best way to evaluate goalies is with your eyes. The numbers can tell you a small piece, but as you said they are greatly influenced by a team's system. Everett is like the NJ Devils of the WHL under Kevin Constantine so Hart's numbers are going to benefit from that.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The parity in the CHL between the few top teams & everybody else can be so massive. Another thing is that these buildings don't have the resources like an NHL team has in regards to tracking stats. So the harder things to track like shots & hits for example are likely not close to being as accurate.

 

[Flyotes]

Who is our resident goalie guru?

Not I. Never prevents me from yapping though.

Goalies can be a touch problematic to peg because of the synergy with the rest of the skaters and how well they are playing defensively. Even a defenseman with underwhelming stats could be liked by a netminder because they are always clearing the porch, clogging up standard high % lanes, or the reverse-- opening the lane vision so the netminder can read the shot.

A few stats:

GAA - more about the team's play than the netminders. Letting up 40 shots will yield whatever the goaltender's SV% tends to be.
SV% - better indicator of the goaltender's ability. How the team performs has something to do with this, but stats get stronger over time-- most shots are reasonably contested and all netminders will face poor and high quality shots over the season. Ceteris paribus (which hockey isn't!), if the netminder can gauge the shot off the body language/stick positioning, and so forth the better netminders should have the higher SV%.
GSAA - Goals saved above average. This helps a little by evening out the shots faced variable. It can be a problem because bad teams surrender a lot of shots and probably more HQ shots. So what this stat does is: Even if one goaltender faces 1000 shots and another faces 1200 shots -- let's ignore that and pretend IF they both faced the exact same number of shots, given their respective save percentages, which goaltender does better if all goaltenders faced say, 1000 shots? And how high are they above that average re: compared to their goaltender colleagues if they all faced the exact same amount of shots over the course of the season. Problem is: It still doesn't necessarily even out the LQ vs HQ shots totals.

Unfortunately, I've never found a smoking gun stat.

 

[CSKA1974]

Is this guy off the radar?

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/ivan-fedotov/

 

[Governator46]

Is this guy off the radar?

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/ivan-fedotov/

He's not off the radar at all, but he's a long-term project. He came to dev camp in July after the draft for the first. As a KHL-drafted prospect, the Flyers hold his rights indefinitely. He was a starter in the MHL last year, but he was traded in the summer and looks like he'll be the backup with Ufa (same team as Vorobyov).

If he looks good, and he wants to come over, he can come over.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Matej Tomek was hurt pretty much most of the year in North Dakota. There was no way he was going to get in any time. Now that the groin is fully healed, he should challenge for the starter's position.

As for the goaltending prospects, it's become an embarrassment of riches. I don't think I've ever seen the pipeline this deep. I know not everyone will make the NHL, but it's great to have a lot of good players in the pipeline to force others to up their game. Should be an interesting year for the goalies, no doubt.

 

[NYCFlyer]

The best way to evaluate goalies is with your eyes. The numbers can tell you a small piece, but as you said they are greatly influenced by a team's system. Everett is like the NJ Devils of the WHL under Kevin Constantine so Hart's numbers are going to benefit from that.

I think that's true with all positions but unfortunately I watch and go to lots of games but exclusively nhl. I'd like to think this is one area that Hextall really knows but from the outside it seems like a shotgun approach rather than a sniper approach to our goaltending.

 

[Tripod]

I think that's true with all positions but unfortunately I watch and go to lots of games but exclusively nhl. I'd like to think this is one area that Hextall really knows but from the outside it seems like a shotgun approach rather than a sniper approach to our goaltending.

How is it a shotgun approach when we picked the CHL goalie of the year in Hart who was also the 1st goalie drafted in the draft?

Then Sandstrom was the 3rd goalie picked the year before. That's pretty "sniper" is it not?

Hextall has decided to build prospect depth everywhere. The D is set. The goalies are set. The F are almost set....just need a few more blue chippers.

 

[NYCFlyer]

We never had so many goaltending prospects in the system. My definition of the shotgun approach is to get as many young successful goaltenders as possible regardless of style, size, strengths(i.e. good gloves vs great in close) , etc. Let them grow and mature and cull them in a few years rather than target a specific type of goalie they prefer and focus on coaching up that type of goalie and cull the best of the specific type they prefer. Its certainly possible that i can't see the common thread (competitiveness or HIQ maybe).

Its a little different with skaters because although you may have some preferences of type of player you like you need different skill sets and types of defensemen or forwards in each game.

 

[LastWordArmy]

The best way to evaluate goalies is with your eyes. The numbers can tell you a small piece, but as you said they are greatly influenced by a team's system. Everett is like the NJ Devils of the WHL under Kevin Constantine so Hart's numbers are going to benefit from that.

Not only that, but certain leagues are better at tracking shots than others, and some leagues seem to inflate shot counts (OHL I'm sure inflates the shot counts, i've been to numerous games where teams get credited 45+ shots and I know its not that high)... QMJHL on the other hand seems to have lower shot totals.

So best to look in comparison to other goalies in that league.

Tough to compare league to league for that reason.

then there is the team to team comparisons that you bring up that you still have to adjust for even in the same league.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Not only that, but certain leagues are better at tracking shots than others, and some leagues seem to inflate shot counts (OHL I'm sure inflates the shot counts, i've been to numerous games where teams get credited 45+ shots and I know its not that high)... QMJHL on the other hand seems to have lower shot totals.

Yup. I have noticed that as well the last few years. The cross league save percentage debates usually roll around during the WJCs and I shake my head.