Proposal: Flames trade predictions

[ShaneinTpa]

First of all, you are allowed to exceed the cap by the amount of the LTIR pool. You would have to subtract any amount that they are under the cap without it. Next year when they do not have the LTR in Seabrook, they can’texceed the cap like they did this year. It should not be lost on any of us that Hagel‘s new contract also kicks in next season. that takes out about another $5 million. Unless they could be guaranteed to sign Hanifin, giving up a first round draft pick to get him would be idiotic whether or not, they move the other two players, you mentioned.

 

[JTBF81]

First of all, you are allowed to exceed the cap by the amount of the LTIR pool. You would have to subtract any amount that they are under the cap without it. Next year when they do not have the LTR in Seabrook, they can’texceed the cap like they did this year. It should not be lost on any of us that Hagel‘s new contract also kicks in next season. that takes out about another $5 million. Unless they could be guaranteed to sign Hanifin, giving up a first round draft pick to get him would be idiotic whether or not, they move the other two players, you mentioned.

No, they could not exceed the cap by Seabrook's cap hit this year. He started the year on ltir, but Tampa had to stay at the 83.5 number. They are currently exceeding it by 514k because of Sergachev's ltir. Even with Hagel's increase, they will have either 17 roster players signed and have approximately 11.65 available, or 18 players signed and 10.8 available with a cap of 87.7 million. Seabrook's cap hit ending has no effect on what they can spend either this or next year. The only way Tampa would pay the high price to get Hanifin would be if Brisebois was certain he could re-sign him as well. I doubt Tampa is going to pay premium assets this year for any pure rentals, only players that could help both this year and beyond.

 

[Lunatik]

Then explain the purpose of the lightning, taking on Seabrooks contract to begin with

If you have a player on offseason LTIR, you can only use the amount you are over by for the rest of the season, so teams will sometimes manipulate that to maximize the value. Tammpa took teh dead cap in exchange for dumping Tyler Johnson's contract

The simplest way to explain how things work is teams can't exceed the cap with healthy bodies, all LTIR does is allow teams to replace the salaries of injured players. So it doesn't matter if you have 100m on LTIR or 1m, you cannot exceed 83.5m in healthy bodies (this year).

 

[McJedi]

these are my predictions based on where I think the best fit is and deal

Hanifin - think either Bos or TB
I’ll give the edge to Boston and think it will be mason lohrei and a first round pick

Tanev - I think tor wants him and dal could really use him. I’ll say tor gives in and moves their first

Markstrom- I really think this is a one horse race with nj and if the don’t offer up a good deal the flames keep him and move in the offseason. I think it takes Mercer and a second round.

I think Conroy panics and takes smaller returns for everyone he’s got on the market.

Markstrom isn’t moved. Flames don’t sniff the playoffs and pick around 9th overall in 2024. Have a late first from Vancouver and a late first and low level prospect for Hanifin.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

No, they could not exceed the cap by Seabrook's cap hit this year. He started the year on ltir, but Tampa had to stay at the 83.5 number. They are currently exceeding it by 514k because of Sergachev's ltir. Even with Hagel's increase, they will have either 17 roster players signed and have approximately 11.65 available, or 18 players signed and 10.8 available with a cap of 87.7 million. Seabrook's cap hit ending has no effect on what they can spend either this or next year. The only way Tampa would pay the high price to get Hanifin would be if Brisebois was certain he could re-sign him as well. I doubt Tampa is going to pay premium assets this year for any pure rentals, only players that could help both this year and beyond.

I am by no means trying to be argumentative here. Perhaps you can explain to me why cap friendly has their projected cap hit at present sitting at over $92.2 million with the use of long-term injured reserve money of $8600,000+.. Everything that I have read about the NHL salary recap points towards GM’s getting to the maximum cap prior to opening day so anything that they have in the LTIR pool can be used to 100% of that value. It only becomes less by whatever the team may be under the salary cap without the use of that LTIR money. I just reread this yesterday. The bottom line is the salary cap next year is going up more, but not by as much as Hagel’s increase. so essentially all this added cap room for next season to which you reference must be coming at the expense resigning Stamkos

 

[ShaneinTpa]

If you have a player on offseason LTIR, you can only use the amount you are over by for the rest of the season, so teams will sometimes manipulate that to maximize the value. Tammpa took teh dead cap in exchange for dumping Tyler Johnson's contract

The simplest way to explain how things work is teams can't exceed the cap with healthy bodies, all LTIR does is allow teams to replace the salaries of injured players. So it doesn't matter if you have 100m on LTIR or 1m, you cannot exceed 83.5m in healthy bodies (this year).

I suggest you Google why Tampa Bay traded for Brent Seabrook. You see, he was not officially retired, which allows them to exceed the salary cap by his full contract value assuming that without it, they were already at the cap limit. They did it again this year because they are currently sitting at over $92.2 million projected cap hit and they have almost $7.9 million available cap space on top of that because of Sergachev’s recent injury

 

[madmike77]

I think Conroy panics and takes smaller returns for everyone he’s got on the market.

Markstrom isn’t moved. Flames don’t sniff the playoffs and pick around 9th overall in 2024. Have a late first from Vancouver and a late first and low level prospect for Hanifin.

The only player he has left on the market is Hanifin. And if he gets a low return it’s not due to panic. It’s due to Hanifin only being willing to re-sign in 3-4 markets, which are all in the U.S.

 

[JTBF81]

I am by no means trying to be argumentative here. Perhaps you can explain to me why cap friendly has their projected cap hit at present sitting at over $92.2 million with the use of long-term injured reserve money of $8600,000+.. Everything that I have read about the NHL salary recap points towards GM’s getting to the maximum cap prior to opening day so anything that they have in the LTIR pool can be used to 100% of that value. It only becomes less by whatever the team may be under the salary cap without the use of that LTIR money. I just reread this yesterday. The bottom line is the salary cap next year is going up more, but not by as much as Hagel’s increase. so essentially all this added cap room for next season to which you reference must be coming at the expense resigning Stamkos

Because, as the other poster said, the ltir can only be used and the cap exceeded for that season in which you acquire the player. After that, the player may be on ltir, but the team doesn't get to exceed the cap by their hit. Tampa us still unable to accrue cap space however while any player is on ltir. It was a good trade in the short term for Tampa, because by moving Johnson's 5 million and adding Seabrook's.6.875 they gained that difference over the cap for that year only. The reason that capfriendly has Tampa at a 92.2 cap usage is because Sergachev's ltir of 8.5 is being counted, as well as the small ltir hit of Logan Brown of 775k. Their current non ltir roster has a cap hit of 84, 014,165, so when you add the 9.275 to 83.5 and then subtract what Tampa is currently over 83.5 by(514,165), you end up with the 92, 144, 169 number from CF.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

Makes sense but it’s deceiving because they say their present cap is just over$92M PLUS have about $7.8M space available. But beyond the math, with Hagel’s new contract set to kick in he will use more than the amount the cap is going up. Hanifin is going to be looking for a payday (he has never really had one) and that will be somewhere around $6M-$7M. Even if JBB doesn’t sign Stamkos it would be tight. Moving Sheary is unlikely with 2years left even a $2M. At best he would enhance a trade with someone better. The bottom line is Hanifin would more likely than not be a rental which would make giving up the only first round draft choice TB has for the next 3 years for a team already in decline.

 

[JTBF81]

Makes sense but it’s deceiving because they say their present cap is just over$92M PLUS have about $7.8M space available. But beyond the math, with Hagel’s new contract set to kick in he will use more than the amount the cap is going up. Hanifin is going to be looking for a payday (he has never really had one) and that will be somewhere around $6M-$7M. Even if JBB doesn’t sign Stamkos it would be tight. Moving Sheary is unlikely with 2years left even a $2M. At best he would enhance a trade with someone better. The bottom line is Hanifin would more likely than not be a rental which would make giving up the only first round draft choice TB has for the next 3 years for a team already in decline.

They have 7.8 available this year only because of the ltir of Sergachev. Even with Hagel's.increase, they will still have 11.65 available to use with 17 players signed. Replacing Sheary with a cheaper option saves another million.or so, and they can save another million or so by replacing Jeannot if needed. Stamkos may or may not re-sign, but there is a path to having both Stamkos and Hanifin. It would require less spending on anyone else for the F group with close to league min contracts for the extra 4th line spots/13th F. The team is having a down regular season compared to what they have been accustomed to, but with the right adds, and with the core they have(still with an average age under 30), I wouldn't say they are in decline overall. The '26 1st also doesn't help this core much, if at all, during this contention window, so if moving it to acquire a proven and needed player at one of a couple positions, especially if that player will be with the team for years to come, then JBB probably moves it.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

They have 7.8 available this year only because of the ltir of Sergachev. Even with Hagel's.increase, they will still have 11.65 available to use with 17 players signed. Replacing Sheary with a cheaper option saves another million.or so, and they can save another million or so by replacing Jeannot if needed. Stamkos may or may not re-sign, but there is a path to having both Stamkos and Hanifin. It would require less spending on anyone else for the F group with close to league min contracts for the extra 4th line spots/13th F. The team is having a down regular season compared to what they have been accustomed to, but with the right adds, and with the core they have(still with an average age under 30), I wouldn't say they are in decline overall. The '26 1st also doesn't help this core much, if at all, during this contention window, so if moving it to acquire a proven and needed player at one of a couple positions, especially if that player will be with the team for years to come, then JBB probably moves it.

There is definitely more than one way to view this. As a 27 year season ticket member who has attended more than 1000 Lightning games I see the regression. I believe Hanifin is the best solution but I only see that if a hockey trade is the solution. I would absolutely not be inspired by paying $40k to watch what Chicago is seeing for the next 4 years. The sooner you stop mortgaging the future the faster you recover from going all in

 

[The don godfather]

Bruins wont give up lohrei . Move along.

 

[JTBF81]

There is definitely more than one way to view this. As a 27 year season ticket member who has attended more than 1000 Lightning games I see the regression. I believe Hanifin is the best solution but I only see that if a hockey trade is the solution. I would absolutely not be inspired by paying $40k to watch what Chicago is seeing for the next 4 years. The sooner you stop mortgaging the future the faster you recover from going all in

There is no realistic hockey trade to be made though, as Tampa really has no one to move. None of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak are likely to be available, and there's no one else really. It's been one tougher than usual season for a myriad of reasons, but it doesn't mean the team is in decline or needing a rebuild. I wouldn't deplete all of the higher end prospects they have, but if one or two need to go in addition to picks 2 or 3 drafts away in order to improve the team both now and in for some seasons to come, I'd rather see JBB make those moves rather than hoping a 2nd next year or a 1st in '26 actually helps the team(which is historically one of the absolute slowest in developing players) before the 2029 season when the team may actually be terrible. If Tampa could trade a player in a trade to help the blueline, great, but moving either Serg or Cernak seems to be a lateral move in bringing in Hanifin in exchange, and moving Cirelli weakens the offense further. If Stamkos doesn't re-sign(and even if he does, his game has regressed the most this year outside of the powerplay imo), then Tampa has a hole at C as well as depth issues at RW. They definitely need some of the better and close to ready prospects to have a more impactful role next season to help with some of these issues.

 

[Lunatik]

There is no realistic hockey trade to be made though, as Tampa really has no one to move. None of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak are likely to be available, and there's no one else really.

If another forward was going to Tampa in addition to Hanifin, could Cirelli possibly be available? For instance, Sharangovich or Mangiapane?

 

[JTBF81]

If another forward was going to Tampa in addition to Hanifin, could Cirelli possibly be available? For instance, Sharangovich or Mangiapane?

Despite imo the poor optics of moving a player so soon into an 8 year deal, yes, I think Tampa would consider it depending on how much they'd need to add to Cirelli.

 

[JTBF81]

If another forward was going to Tampa in addition to Hanifin, could Cirelli possibly be available? For instance, Sharangovich or Mangiapane?

I'm just guessing that Tampa would try for Sharangovich because of his 3.1 cap hit rather than Mangiapane's 5.8, but alot would depend on the adds needed from Tampa, and what JBB is thinking in regards to whether he tries to keep Stamkos.

 

[Lunatik]

Despite imo the poor optics of moving a player so soon into an 8 year deal, yes, I think Tampa would consider it depending on how much they'd need to add to Cirelli.

I'm just guessing that Tampa would try for Sharangovich because of his 3.1 cap hit rather than Mangiapane's 5.8, but alot would depend on the adds needed from Tampa, and what JBB is thinking in regards to whether he tries to keep Stamkos.

That's why I mentioned both, they both have their advantages. Rango has the better cap hit, but he hasn't been as consistent through his career, and then Bread make more, but you know he's good for at least 15 goals and 40 points over a full season.

But Maybe Cirelli, Jeannot, Perbix, Finley & 2nd in 2025 for Hanifin (extended), Sharangovich & Duehr?

 

[ShaneinTpa]

There is no realistic hockey trade to be made though, as Tampa really has no one to move. None of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak are likely to be available, and there's no one else really. It's been one tougher than usual season for a myriad of reasons, but it doesn't mean the team is in decline or needing a rebuild. I wouldn't deplete all of the higher end prospects they have, but if one or two need to go in addition to picks 2 or 3 drafts away in order to improve the team both now and in for some seasons to come, I'd rather see JBB make those moves rather than hoping a 2nd next year or a 1st in '26 actually helps the team(which is historically one of the absolute slowest in developing players) before the 2029 season when the team may actually be terrible. If Tampa could trade a player in a trade to help the blueline, great, but moving either Serg or Cernak seems to be a lateral move in bringing in Hanifin in exchange, and moving Cirelli weakens the offense further. If Stamkos doesn't re-sign(and even if he does, his game has regressed the most this year outside of the powerplay imo), then Tampa has a hole at C as well as depth issues at RW. They definitely need some of the better and close to ready prospects to have a more impactful role next season to help with some of these issues.

See Lunatik’s response

 

[ShaneinTpa]

That's why I mentioned both, they both have their advantages. Rango has the better cap hit, but he hasn't been as consistent through his career, and then Bread make more, but you know he's good for at least 15 goals and 40 points over a full season.

But Maybe Cirelli, Jeannot, Perbix, Finley & 2nd in 2025 for Hanifin (extended), Sharangovich & Duehr?

This kind of banter is a little bit more consistent with my thinking for whatever that’s worth. My thought was regardless of the optics of trading Cirelli in the first year of an eight year contract, he’s the only one that doesn’t have the stumbling block of a no trade or no movement clause. I love the player, but his numbers are not justifying what he’s getting here and I think he would fit Calgary‘s mold well. That said my thought was to trade him with possibly our second next year and another player either of the Sheary mold plus a decent minor league prospect for the rigjts to Hanifin and the first they got from Vancouver in the Lindholm deal. Then, you flip the first to a team to replace Cirelli. If I had my pic a player that isn’t being discussed at the TDL Shane Pinto in Ottawa. Since he has returned his plus minus numbers are outstanding, he’s putting up points and he’s 23 years old with a very reasonable contract. That would allow them to go after someone else, perhaps even Tarasenko for that matter. He does not replace Cirelli, but you could move Stamkos back to center and have Tarasenko play right wing on a second line that wouldn’t suck.

 

[JTBF81]

That's why I mentioned both, they both have their advantages. Rango has the better cap hit, but he hasn't been as consistent through his career, and then Bread make more, but you know he's good for at least 15 goals and 40 points over a full season.

But Maybe Cirelli, Jeannot, Perbix, Finley & 2nd in 2025 for Hanifin (extended), Sharangovich & Duehr?

I think Tampa would consider that trade. It likely gives them enough flexibility in terms of next yeat(after moving Sheary in the summer as well I'd guess), to likely re-sign Stamkos or another F in the 5-6 range, as well as having some additional space to add 1 or 2 more ufa's to help where needed.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

I think Tampa would consider that trade. It likely gives them enough flexibility in terms of next yeat(after moving Sheary in the summer as well I'd guess), to likely re-sign Stamkos or another F in the 5-6 range, as well as having some additional space to add 1 or 2 more ufa's to help where needed.

A trade that involves that many players would never happen. The chemistry changes alone would make it more of a short term detriment. That’s more the type of thing you see in the off-season and even then it’s not very often you see seven or eight bodies move in one deal. Also, where I see Connor Sherry is someone the lightning would like to move I can’t see anybody getting real enthusiastic about somebody on the wrong side of 31 with his one goal this season even at his $2M cap hit. He’s a throw in with a prospect and either a first or Cirelli to get Hanifin and anything else back from Calgary. I am personally dead set against giving up more draft capital to get Hanifin. For people who think this team has not regressed, I can promise you watching them every night as I do that without Kucherov’s heroics this season they would be looking up at more than Detroit. For God sake, he’s 40 points ahead of Brayden Point who plays with the guy on the same line! This team couldn’t even beat Buffalo at home the other night in a game both of those teams needed to have. Do you think acquiring Hanafin would be enough to get Tampa Bay past either Boston or Florida in the first round? I sure as hell don’t.

 

[CheerstoBeers]

Which forward could be available on the Flames? Bruins I'm sure would love to one stop shop and grab Hanafin plus a forward in a package. They'll sometimes pull off trades for available players that'll have someone thrown in that may not have been knowingly available ... Hathaway with Orlov, Lazar with Hall... If they go after Hanafin I could see them trying to pry away a forward as well.

 

[JTBF81]

A trade that involves that many players would never happen. The chemistry changes alone would make it more of a short term detriment. That’s more the type of thing you see in the off-season and even then it’s not very often you see seven or eight bodies move in one deal. Also, where I see Connor Sherry is someone the lightning would like to move I can’t see anybody getting real enthusiastic about somebody on the wrong side of 31 with his one goal this season even at his $2M cap hit. He’s a throw in with a prospect and either a first or Cirelli to get Hanifin and anything else back from Calgary. I am personally dead set against giving up more draft capital to get Hanifin. For people who think this team has not regressed, I can promise you watching them every night as I do that without Kucherov’s heroics this season they would be looking up at more than Detroit. For God sake, he’s 40 points ahead of Brayden Point who plays with the guy on the same line! This team couldn’t even beat Buffalo at home the other night in a game both of those teams needed to have. Do you think acquiring Hanafin would be enough to get Tampa Bay past either Boston or Florida in the first round? I sure as hell don’t.

While it would be a larger than usual trade, if it works for both sides, great
They can add a sweetener if needed to move Sheary, and worst case, they waive him and at least save a few hundred k if he's not claimed. They aren't packaging him with Cirelli to get Hanifin more than likely. Moving a 2nd next year is not a big deal, as even if that pick pans out(big if), the player might help Tampa in 2028 or 2029. There are other players in addition to Hanifin that can help as well, and I'd much rather get Hanifin now then watch him go to Florida or Boston and then have to face him in division for the bext 8 years if he extends with one of them.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

While it would be a larger than usual trade, if it works for both sides, great
They can add a sweetener if needed to move Sheary, and worst case, they waive him and at least save a few hundred k if he's not claimed. They aren't packaging him with Cirelli to get Hanifin more than likely. Moving a 2nd next year is not a big deal, as even if that pick pans out(big if), the player might help Tampa in 2028 or 2029. There are other players in addition to Hanifin that can help as well, and I'd much rather get Hanifin now then watch him go to Florida or Boston and then have to face him in division for the bext 8 years if he extends with one of them.

I agree. It sure would be interesting to be a fly on the wall about right now. Maybe JBB realizes this team even with Noah isn’t going to get out of the first round if they continue to play the way they have been and relying as much on Kucherov as they do. For that reason, since Hanafin expressed interest in signing in Tampa, it could be that he just takes a pass on him until the summer. I would rather he do that and keep our first round pick.

 

[Petes2424]

I'm just guessing that Tampa would try for Sharangovich because of his 3.1 cap hit rather than Mangiapane's 5.8, but alot would depend on the adds needed from Tampa, and what JBB is thinking in regards to whether he tries to keep Stamkos.

Think it’s a good bet Sharangovich might be a player included with Hanifin, to help increase Hanifin’s return.