I've said I don't think his stats are that bad considering he likely doesn't (didn't he's on the 2nd unit now) get powerplay time and he's so young for the NCAA. On top of that I intend to watch him play for Russia so I can get a better look at how he plays. The reason I see it as a Longshot is because almost all of the defensemen at the NHL level were good offensive d men in junior. There are exceptions but that's what they're exceptions (Tanev, Hjarmalson, Pence and Paryko kind of...) are a few of the massive amounts of low scoring d men picked every year. They worked out, most don't.
How to Evaluate Defensive Play
This is a quick read about why a lot of these big, good defensive players don't end up being NHLers. If you aren't good at one facet of the game at a lower level that difference only gets bigger the higher up you go.
I have some hope for Kuznetsov but part of what makes me not like this pick was reading his prospect thread, it sounds like he's a good defensive player but with almost zero offense and that worries me because again, most "stay at home" dmen at the NHL level were once very good offensive players at the lower levels, their point production didn't translate because of how big the gap is from junior vs NHL competition (again I know not everyone was a big producer).
Now on the positive side, Kuznetsov's situation is unique. I remember a post about how only 4 U18 d-men have played in the NCAA, so not many comparables for how he "should" be producing. On top of that I like some of the twitter clips I've seen of him, gap looks good, smart in transition, he's a good skater and capable of landing big hits without throwing himself out of position. On top of that Kuznetsov is young, I'm still semi-optimistic about him improving to a point where he is a dominant college player and he's probably got 3 years (this one included) to do that. I'm not even that low on him, I like this pick waaaaaaay more than the Boltman pick (not trying to shit on Boltman), I just worry that he'll hit the wall of not good enough to play his way at a higher level.
