HF Habs: Flames or Panthers 1st Round Pick 2025

[RealityHurts]

It will likely be Panther's (hereafter known as Prancers) pick since the bastards keep playing over their heads this year. Hopefully next year is the year they fade.

Gimme like a bullet point summary please !

 

[habamillions]

Basically we dont want this year. Then scoreboard watch next year

 

[DAChampion]

Gimme like a bullet point summary please !

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fi-turned-the-monahan-trade-into-a-slightly-easier-to-follow-v0-u8rgj8k5zji91.png%3Fauto%3Dwebp%26s%3Dc27509b92c79271af171df75561bb386e36e3db7

Most likely is that the Habs get Florida's 2025 pick and it's somewhere around 24th overall.

 

[vokiel]

The conditions have been drawn to make sure we get the worst pick possible between 2024 and 2025. That is all you need to know.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I believe with Florida's pick they needed to finnih bottom 10 and then they keep this years pick. The pick was traded and would move to 2025 and Calgary would get their 2026 pick. Then Calgary would only have their own pick to lose in 2025. Since it looks like they will have 2 picks Habs would get the worst of the 2 picks I believe,

 

[HomaridII]

Not sure if a thread already exists for this, but I was wondering if someone could summarize in simple terms, as of today, what we are looking at.

They owe habs a 1st round pick, what will it be ?

First step is to understand the conditions of the Florida pick to Calgary:

If this year Florida's pick is top 10, then the 2025 Florida 1st goes to Philly and 2026 Florida first to Calgary. This is unlikely, so:

Lets assume the 2025 Florida 1st goes to Calgary (also lottery protected)

Now its up to the Habs to decide:

1) If Calgary's own pick is 20-32, Habs can opt to take it. This is very unlikely and even if it happens, the Habs would be dumb to take it, so forget this one too

2) Assuming Calgary gets Florida's first in 2025 and assuming the habs do not opt for the 2024 pick (20-32) then Montreal gets the better pick between Florida and Calgary 2025 first, unless Calgary's is top 10, in which case they get Florida's.

Above point no.2 is the most likely at the moment, that is Habs get the better of Calgary and Florida's 2025 unless Calgary's is top 10 then Florida. However:

Worst Case scenerio for the Flames:

Florida misses the postseason in 2024, Calgary gets Florida's 2026 pick, Montreal gets Calgary's 2025 pick unless it is 1st overall.

Florida misses the postseason in 2025, Montreal gets the better of Florida or Calgary, guaranteeing a lottery pick.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

It will be Florida's 32nd overall pick in 2025, anything better is gravy

 

[Runner77]

Gotta give props to those who attempt to explain it in plain words -- I could do it but couldn't be bothered. I've seen @MarkovsKnee render it quite clearly but you'd have to dig up his posts.

In the meantime, let's just take it for what it is.

 

[HomaridII]

Basically cheer for Florida to miss the postseason either this year or next year. To help out sign Sam Reinhart this offseason.

 

[Leto]

First step is to understand the conditions of the Florida pick to Calgary:

If this year Florida's pick is top 10, then the 2025 Florida 1st goes to Philly and 2026 Florida first to Calgary. This is unlikely, so:

Lets assume the 2025 Florida 1st goes to Calgary (also lottery protected)

Now its up to the Habs to decide:

1) If Calgary's own pick is 20-32, Habs can opt to take it. This is very unlikely and even if it happens, the Habs would be dumb to take it, so forget this one too

2) Assuming Calgary gets Florida's first in 2025 and assuming the habs do not opt for the 2024 pick (20-32) then Montreal gets the better pick between Florida and Calgary 2025 first, unless Calgary's is top 10, in which case they get Florida's.

Above point no.2 is the most likely at the moment, that is Habs get the better of Calgary and Florida's 2025 unless Calgary's is top 10 then Florida. However:

Worst Case scenerio for the Flames:

Florida misses the postseason in 2024, Calgary gets Florida's 2026 pick, Montreal gets Calgary's 2025 pick unless it is 1st overall.

Florida misses the postseason in 2025, Montreal gets the better of Florida or Calgary, guaranteeing a lottery pick.

Even though the worst-case scenario is highly unlikely, it's worth noting that Florida has a big summer coming up. Reinhart, Montour, Forsling and many others are all UFAs. Should Reinhart and Montour leave, things might get dicey for the cats.

 

[Riggins]

Florida will not finish bottom 10 this year or next, so we can get that out of our heads.

We will be cheering for Calgary to finish out of the playoffs but not bottom 10 next year (between #11-16), so we get that pick. If Calgary finishes bottom 10, we will get Florida's pick - likely in the 20s.

This is what it boils down to, forget all the other conditions.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Florida will not finish bottom 10 this year or next, so we can get that out of our heads.

We will be cheering for Calgary to finish out of the playoffs but not bottom 10 next year (between #11-16), so we get that pick. If Calgary finishes bottom 10, we will get Florida's pick - likely in the 20s.

This is what it boils down to, forget all the other conditions.

Yup, this. We need Calgary to finish 11-16 next year. They're going to finish in that range this year; hopefully they do the same next year.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Better question is what 2019 drafted player will we trade it for

 

[HomaridII]

Better question is what 2019 drafted player will we trade it for

My money is on Alex Turcotte at the deadline.

 

[CharleyHorse]

It will be Florida's 32nd overall pick in 2025, anything better is gravy

Can the FL mfers screw us over twice with their first round pick?? Does a bear shit in the woods?

 

[Habs]

The Theory of relativity is easier to understand than this deal Baldy put together.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Can the FL mfers screw us over twice with their first round pick?? Does a bear shit in the woods?

At this point I just want Calgary to limp into the playoffs so we can take the 20-22nd overall pick this year

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

At this point I just want Calgary to limp into the playoffs so we can take the 20-22nd overall pick this year

Nope.

Next year is a deeper draft it seems, so getting 32nd is better than 22nd.

Then again we're Hab fans, so they'll screw up either way.

 

[RealityHurts]

It will be Florida's 32nd overall pick in 2025, anything better is gravy

Stop. The fact Florida made playoffs last year already stings.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It’s the most convoluted trade I’ve ever seen.

 

[GrandBison]

If it's pick 20+, I don't know when they have to make the call. If there a player high on their list or a trading possibility, they maybe take the 2024 one.

 

[Habs]

It’s the most convoluted trade I’ve ever seen.

I think Kent has Aspergers or has a bit of Rain Man in him. I know people with this and they over-complicate moves in life, decisions, for reasons known only to them. have you ever seen so many moving parts in a trade, that wasn't over a generational player? I haven't.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It was complicated by the fact that Calgary had already given away a first. Plus these days nobody wants to give up a lotto pick…

 

[LaP]

The Theory of relativity is easier to understand than this deal Baldy put together.

I understood Tenet on the first viewing. I'm still trying to figure out this trade.

 

[Scintillating10]

Florida could fade next year. They may lose Reinhart. Also several key UFAs on defense. Ekblad is injury prone.