OvermanKingGainer
#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
In the last two seasons the Flames' defensive depth has had five players mostly playing in an undesirable scenario:
#8/#7 Defenseman Chris Butler playing a #4/#5 Role
#7/#6 Defenseman Deryk Engelland playing a #5/#4 Role
#5/#6 Defenseman Ladislav Smid playing a a #5/#4 Role
#5/#4 Defenseman Russell playing a #3/#4 role
#4/#5 Defenseman Wideman playing a #4/#3 role
As a result, the Flames have not been a very strong possession team over that span. The Brodie/Giordano pairing as a result has had to face levels of competition and deployment that are not comparable to any other #1 pairing in the league - they're taking on much harder minutes than they should have to (and, in fairness, the same is true of Mikael Backlund, who has been our de-facto #1 centre the last two seasons in terms of deployment, albeit of course Monahan has risen to the de-jure "#1C" role.
Next season, all of these defensemen will be pushed into their natural role for the most part (well, Butler's not a Flame anymore) thanks to the addition of Dougie Hamilton.
What will that mean for our forwards? Using SuperWOWY I compiled a list of the team's forwards' CF% without these five defensemen. Now, playing without these five defensemen means that they're more than likely playing with Giordano or Brodie - but not necessarily. We've had a few other decent possession defensemen here and there - Raphael Diaz, David Schlemko, and Derek Smith for instance. Additionally, playing with Giordano/Brodie isn't a Get-Out-Of-Jail free card, as that pairing is usually facing high-level competition - which means these players are likely facing higher-levels of competition than they normally do.
I just thought it would be interesting look at these players with the "shackle" of defensemen playing outside of their natural role removed. No doubt, these statistics are skewed by limitations on icetime as well as deployment. I tried to include those factors as best as I could in the chart, but it's never going to be perfect:
The TOI column refers to time spent without the the five players named above. All statistics are regular season and go from Sept 2013 to April 2015 for players who were here in 2013-14, and from Sept 2014-April 2015 for players who were added later.
The OZS% column refers to offensive zone start percentage. It's not a perfect stat, as it does incorporate a weighting for neutral zone starts, but it should illuminate whether a player is being used mostly offensively by Hartley, or defensively depending on whether it's above or below or right about at 50%.
And yes, Corsi For Percentage is not a perfect stat to measure possession. But it's what we have right now so without further adieau, let's take a look at how, give-or-take, we might be able to expect players to perform next season with a strong possession player in Dougie Hamilton or TJ Brodie able to bolster the middle pairing:
Lastly, I used 5 vs 5 situationsas it maximized the sample size, but ideally 5vs5 Close would better account for score effects (i.e. leading vs trailing).
Player | TOI | OZS% | CF%
Bollig | 137:56 | 36.4 | 46.0
Jones | 478:21 | 38.8 | 49.0
Bouma | 542:12 | 39.5| 50.0
Stajan | 420:19 | 41.0 | 53.4
Byron |370:33 | 42.1 | 55.9
Monahan | 639:28 | 43.3 | 49.4
Backlund |542:12 | 43.6 | 59.7
Shore | 043:26 | 45.8 | 50.6
Colborne | 482:52 | 48.7 | 51.4
Raymond | 228:57 |48.9 | 50.7
Hudler | 594:59 | 50.4 | 51.7
Jooris | 260:28 | 53.5 | 52.1
Gaudreau |295:38 | 57.9 | 50.2
Granlund |188:53 | 59.5 | 50.2
Ferland | 071:14 | 63.6 | 63.1
All SuperWOWY statistics provided by Puckalytics.com
You can see that Byron and Backlund are clearly on another level from the rest of the group, and I hope Frolik is too, though we'll have to see. You can also see that Jones, Stajan, and Bouma, despite being buried in the D-zone, are getting the puck forward.
What these stats probably tell us the most, is how good Giordano and Brodie probably are. But what I take out of them, is that next season, the additions of Hamilton and Frolik could see the Flames become a top 15 or better possession team. A few things Hartley could stand to do are not use Bollig so often in the D-zone, and maybe use Byron & Backlund together. On that note, one last stat:
Backlund/Byron Minus Wideman/Russell/Smid/Engelland:
TOI (@ 5vs5) | 140:17
OZS% | 45.1
PDO | 100.1
Goals For | 8
Goals For/60 |3.42
Goals Against | 5
Goals Against/60 | 2.14
Goals For % | 61.5
Corsi For | 159
Corsi Against | 85
CF% | 65.2
TOI @ 5vs5 Close | 88:05
CF% @ 5vs5 Close | 68.3
GF% @ 5vs5 Close | 55.6
Please? | Yes
The sample size is too small to make any definitive conclusions, but a duo like Byron-Backlund isn't just strong both ways, but at 5vs5 comparable to the incredible Bergeron-Marchand shutdown duo:
In the last two seasons The Backlund-Byron-Brodie-Giordano unit has seen some time together, but not nearly enough. In the last two seasons the Bruins had something like this in Bergeron-Marchand-Hamilton-Chara that they could and did rely upon.
4-man-Unit | TOI | OZS% | CorsiFor% | PDO | GoalsFor%
BBBG (Flames) | 105:11 | 40.0 | 63.4 |102.8 | 66.7
BMHC (Bruins) | 429:52 | 49.8 | 62.3 | 100.5 | 63.9
The big difference, is time on ice distribution. The Flames have used their best 4-man unit only 25% as often as the Bruins have.
#8/#7 Defenseman Chris Butler playing a #4/#5 Role
#7/#6 Defenseman Deryk Engelland playing a #5/#4 Role
#5/#6 Defenseman Ladislav Smid playing a a #5/#4 Role
#5/#4 Defenseman Russell playing a #3/#4 role
#4/#5 Defenseman Wideman playing a #4/#3 role
As a result, the Flames have not been a very strong possession team over that span. The Brodie/Giordano pairing as a result has had to face levels of competition and deployment that are not comparable to any other #1 pairing in the league - they're taking on much harder minutes than they should have to (and, in fairness, the same is true of Mikael Backlund, who has been our de-facto #1 centre the last two seasons in terms of deployment, albeit of course Monahan has risen to the de-jure "#1C" role.
Next season, all of these defensemen will be pushed into their natural role for the most part (well, Butler's not a Flame anymore) thanks to the addition of Dougie Hamilton.
What will that mean for our forwards? Using SuperWOWY I compiled a list of the team's forwards' CF% without these five defensemen. Now, playing without these five defensemen means that they're more than likely playing with Giordano or Brodie - but not necessarily. We've had a few other decent possession defensemen here and there - Raphael Diaz, David Schlemko, and Derek Smith for instance. Additionally, playing with Giordano/Brodie isn't a Get-Out-Of-Jail free card, as that pairing is usually facing high-level competition - which means these players are likely facing higher-levels of competition than they normally do.
I just thought it would be interesting look at these players with the "shackle" of defensemen playing outside of their natural role removed. No doubt, these statistics are skewed by limitations on icetime as well as deployment. I tried to include those factors as best as I could in the chart, but it's never going to be perfect:
The TOI column refers to time spent without the the five players named above. All statistics are regular season and go from Sept 2013 to April 2015 for players who were here in 2013-14, and from Sept 2014-April 2015 for players who were added later.
The OZS% column refers to offensive zone start percentage. It's not a perfect stat, as it does incorporate a weighting for neutral zone starts, but it should illuminate whether a player is being used mostly offensively by Hartley, or defensively depending on whether it's above or below or right about at 50%.
And yes, Corsi For Percentage is not a perfect stat to measure possession. But it's what we have right now so without further adieau, let's take a look at how, give-or-take, we might be able to expect players to perform next season with a strong possession player in Dougie Hamilton or TJ Brodie able to bolster the middle pairing:
Lastly, I used 5 vs 5 situationsas it maximized the sample size, but ideally 5vs5 Close would better account for score effects (i.e. leading vs trailing).
Bollig | 137:56 | 36.4 | 46.0
Jones | 478:21 | 38.8 | 49.0
Bouma | 542:12 | 39.5| 50.0
Stajan | 420:19 | 41.0 | 53.4
Byron |370:33 | 42.1 | 55.9
Monahan | 639:28 | 43.3 | 49.4
Backlund |542:12 | 43.6 | 59.7
Shore | 043:26 | 45.8 | 50.6
Colborne | 482:52 | 48.7 | 51.4
Raymond | 228:57 |48.9 | 50.7
Hudler | 594:59 | 50.4 | 51.7
Jooris | 260:28 | 53.5 | 52.1
Gaudreau |295:38 | 57.9 | 50.2
Granlund |188:53 | 59.5 | 50.2
Ferland | 071:14 | 63.6 | 63.1
All SuperWOWY statistics provided by Puckalytics.com
You can see that Byron and Backlund are clearly on another level from the rest of the group, and I hope Frolik is too, though we'll have to see. You can also see that Jones, Stajan, and Bouma, despite being buried in the D-zone, are getting the puck forward.
What these stats probably tell us the most, is how good Giordano and Brodie probably are. But what I take out of them, is that next season, the additions of Hamilton and Frolik could see the Flames become a top 15 or better possession team. A few things Hartley could stand to do are not use Bollig so often in the D-zone, and maybe use Byron & Backlund together. On that note, one last stat:
Backlund/Byron Minus Wideman/Russell/Smid/Engelland:
OZS% | 45.1
PDO | 100.1
Goals For | 8
Goals For/60 |3.42
Goals Against | 5
Goals Against/60 | 2.14
Goals For % | 61.5
Corsi For | 159
Corsi Against | 85
CF% | 65.2
TOI @ 5vs5 Close | 88:05
CF% @ 5vs5 Close | 68.3
GF% @ 5vs5 Close | 55.6
Please? | Yes
The sample size is too small to make any definitive conclusions, but a duo like Byron-Backlund isn't just strong both ways, but at 5vs5 comparable to the incredible Bergeron-Marchand shutdown duo:
In the last two seasons The Backlund-Byron-Brodie-Giordano unit has seen some time together, but not nearly enough. In the last two seasons the Bruins had something like this in Bergeron-Marchand-Hamilton-Chara that they could and did rely upon.
BBBG (Flames) | 105:11 | 40.0 | 63.4 |102.8 | 66.7
BMHC (Bruins) | 429:52 | 49.8 | 62.3 | 100.5 | 63.9
The big difference, is time on ice distribution. The Flames have used their best 4-man unit only 25% as often as the Bruins have.
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