First 15 Games - What We Know

[The Macho King]

So we have a few days before our California trip starts, so a look back at our first fifteen games seems timely. We're roughly 20% through the season.

Here are the rough and dirty numbers from the first 15 games this season versus last season.

Standings
11-2-2 (24 points) (1st in League) / 8-6-1 (17 points) (8th in Conference)

Top Points
Steven Stamkos: 7g, 18a, 25p / 8g, 9a, 17p

Top Goals
Nikita Kucherov: 14g / Steven Stamkos: 8g

Points from Defense (Despite everything I think this is our most significant change):
39 points / 27 points [very top heavy on Hedman here]

So that's just some broad strokes.

Some of the observations looking season over season.

Last year we were platooning Bish and Vasi. Now we have a #1 (who is leading the league with 11 wins - 3 more than second place).

Another thing to note - we're getting good depth scoring right now. Point has 16 points in 15 games as our third leading scorer, and we have 7 players with 10 or more points right now (Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Namestnikov, Sergachev, Hedman, Killorn). Last season we had 3 (Stamkos, Kucherov, and Hedman).

Looking at this team year over year, it's hard to not be excited. We've had a bit more roster turnover than normal, and I think that's been to the benefit. (IN: Sergachev, Kunitz, Girardi, Gourde, Dotchin, OUT: Garrison, Nesterov, Filppula, Drouin, Boyle - with a significantly reduced role for Sustr/Koekkoek).

Big California trip coming up, but (roughly) 20% into the season, I think we're looking good.

Click to read more...

 

[Rschmitz]

What do our special teams and puck possession #'s look like compared to last year? Our second liners tilting the ice, and Sergachev supplementing offense generation from the back end, I think are the biggest difference makers compared to last years pre-injured Stamkos team.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

5v5. We had a very slow start and the numbers didn't look good, but things are getting better. Team Corsi has improved nicely and we're mid-pack now, that's where we belong IMO, maybe 2nd-tier top 10 if things keep going smoothly.

It's even slightly better in the scoring chances department, we're one of the only 13 teams (currently 12th) that out-chance the opposition (by a very small margin), so it's good relative to the league.

The PDO is pretty high, particularly the on-ice Sh%, but that's what you gonna get with Kuch and Stammer. Might see a slight regression tho, but nothing dramatic IMO, because this team just never needed a huge amount of scoring chances.


On the downside, we're giving up way too many High-danger scoring chances at even strength, we're bottom 10 in that department. One can be hopeful this is a fixable weakness, but giving up a lot HDSC has been a team signature for a long time now.

Overall 5v5 : Good but still room for improvement, particularly on the defensive awareness.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

On Sergachev. Same as the team, he started slow, the kid was Corsi worst on the team in the first 5 games iirc. He's now top 3 (didn't count KK, not enough minutes) and climbing. His High-Danger Corsi % is the best on the team alongside Stralman. Both get a lot offensive zone starts tho, particularly Sergachev (73% Ozone) but in theory, that defensive pairing should see more ice-time : It's the only one with a positive High-danger scoring chance % (+5%). All the other dmen have a negative High-danger scoring chance differential. Hedman himself sits last with a -9% differential. In short Sergachev is adapting nicely and the numbers don't disprove him.

And yes, now we can say it, playing with Anton makes a ton of difference for Sergachev. As a side note, Stralman is playing as well as he ever was, he's been our most reliable dman so far, hands down.

 

[Sky04]

Stamkos now casually on pace for 40 goals, like I've said the guy can pot 40 in his sleep.

Stralsy been excellent, Hedman is having a ton of brain farts - he has 6 points in his last 5 games but also coming with 5 of his worst defensive games as well. I'll take 0.6PPG Hedman with excellent defense (2015 playoff Hedman) over .9PPG Hedman with awful coverage and a ton of brain farts.

 

[These Are The Days]

There's been a lot of promising balance in the lineup and Vasy has been great. The only prediction I'm really comfortable making is that if both continues then there's nothing really stopping us from making the playoffs. Except ourselves at least. But still a lot of hockey left. I'm just glad to see us starting to live up to our potential for even 15 games. And the crazy thing is we haven't been our best every night.

And one last note. Vasy is gonna have to rest up soon.

 

[The Gongshow]

Serg has been great and I'm glad to see Heddy start to pick it up offensively too, despite his slow start.

Coming into the season I thought or D didn't get any better (didn't expect Serg to be a big factor and play more than 10 games) But despite a few bad games defensively they have been pretty good and have been producing offence which was needed. Considering last year the drop off between D points was like 50 or something. It was all Hedman

 

[DFC]

What we know is the team didn't actually slow down--literally, I mean--for two years. For whatever reason, we just played slow. We're still one of the fastest teams, if not the single fastest team, in the NHL.

We also know that what many here, along with Yzerman, on the record, determined to be a big problem turned out to be a BIG problem. We weren't getting nearly enough offense from our D. The D is pushing the puck right now, and we're dangerous all the time again.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

still not happy overall too much as above said grade A scoring chances given up.... Usually imho is pure laziness taking that split second to make a pass along the boards and not miss point or gourde or kucherov and I actually hate to say this but see it often with callahan out there. Our d guys not passing right to him so unsure who is out there with that line but could use some work calm them down make the good safe plays etc..

so am knocking d guys out there with kunitz callahan etc.. so is probably girardi often wrong side of stick passing etc.. slowing us down. Since brownov came back things have looked a bit better

 

[RDTBay4]

Vasilevskiy is a liability.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

Jesus Christ, you won't give it up, will you? How can you troll this much and not be banned? lol

Anyways, It is really Obvious if Stammer and the rest of the team can stay healthy this team can win a cup assuming our D gets shured up and gets a tad better then it has been.

 

[Stammertime91]

What we know: giraffe still has not found the raisin

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This is a really good Lightning team and could make some serious noise in the playoffs.

 

[CupsOverCash]

This is a really good Lightning team and could make some serious noise in the playoffs.

Nah as long as the pens are around.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Nah as long as the pens are around.

I don't think we are better than the Pens but with how we're playing I can't put us far behind. We could force a long series wth them.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Our offense is firing on all cylinders:
58 GF (2nd in the NHL)
3.87 GF/GP (1st)
28.8 PP% (T-2nd)

Our defense and goaltending is solid as well:
2.73 GA/GP (8th)
82.5 PK% (9th)

Interestingly enough we're just in the (lower) middle of the pack in
shots/GP at 31.5 (17th) and
SA/GP at 32.8 (T-20th).

And below average on faceoffs at
48.9% (23th).


Leaves you wondering how sustainable our current S% and rate of denying quality scoring chances actually is.

 

[These Are The Days]

What is our shooting percentage anyway? It's gotta be astronomical

 

[LightningStrikes]

What is our shooting percentage anyway? It's gotta be astronomical

Roughly 12% if the numbers above are right (don't have the time to look up our actual number of shots, just multiplied the SF/GP by 15 GP).

Sidenote: NHL.com's team stat site is crazy slow. Any reliable alternatives?

 

[The Macho King]

What is our shooting percentage anyway? It's gotta be astronomical

Absent looking at stats, I'd guess somewhere around 11% or so?

Edit: Looking at LS' post - 12% isn't insanely high. Top shooting% teams in a full season are generally mid 9s to 10, so while there may be *some* regression, I don't think it will be an insanely significant drop.

For instance - last season Caps were tops at 10.46%, six teams were at 10% or more. With more PPs and (apparently) an increase in scoring chances due to the slashing calls, it may actually be about where we end.

 

[These Are The Days]

12% isn't too high. I know this is going to sound crazy but for some reason I was expecting something like 16% because it seems like there are some nights that every time we shoot the puck it goes in and I must confess I haven't been keeping up on the math of how many goals we are scoring versus how many shots we take. I look more at the shots by opposition and if they had grade A chances all night on 20 shots or 38 shots with most almost all of them perimeter chances that were never going to go in. I agree Macho that we finish somewhere north of 10%