Fenwick Strength of Schedule

[SaskRinkRat]

I did a quick little analysis this morning of the remaining schedule for each team, and the average strength of their remaining opponents using Fenwick as the measure of team strength. I got the Fenwick numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com, so I'm not sure how up-to-date they are. I'm just getting used to using all of the available databases, so I thought might be somewhat interesting to others:

Team - Games Remaining - Avg Opp Fenwick

Montreal - 10 - 47.81
Winnipeg - 8 - 48.3
Anaheim - 9 - 48.71
Edmonton - 10 - 48.97
Los Angeles - 9 - 48.98
Ottawa - 10 - 49.39
NY Rangers - 10 - 49.45
NY Islanders - 9 - 49.47
Calgary - 11 - 49.51
Vancouver - 10 - 49.51
Boston - 11 - 49.53
St. Louis - 11 - 49.65
Tampa Bay - 10 - 49.78
Chicago - 10 - 49.92
Minnesota - 10 - 50.01
Colorado - 10 - 50.15
San Jose - 10 - 50.35
Carolina - 11 - 50.46
Columbus - 9 - 50.47
Washington - 9 - 50.58
Pittsburgh - 9 - 50.63
Buffalo - 9 - 50.67
Phoenix - 10 - 50.77
Florida - 9 - 50.81
Nashville - 8 - 51.04
New Jersey - 9 - 51.06
Toronto - 10 - 51.23
Philadelphia - 10 - 51.31
Detroit - 9 - 51.4
Dallas - 10 - 52.82

Click to read more...

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Updated:

Team - Games Remaining - Avg Opp FenwickClose
Montreal - 8 - 48.27
Boston - 8 - 48.54
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.63
Minnesota - 8 - 48.8
NY Islanders - 7 - 49.19
Anaheim - 7 - 49.2
Vancouver - 8 - 49.3
Calgary - 9 - 49.43
Edmonton - 8 - 49.44
Colorado - 7 - 49.5
Los Angeles - 7 - 49.5
Tampa Bay - 8 - 49.53
Washington - 7 - 49.81
Ottawa - 8 - 49.88
Chicago - 9 - 49.95
St. Louis - 9 - 50.13
Columbus - 8 - 50.19
Buffalo - 7 - 50.37
Carolina - 8 - 50.4
NY Rangers - 8 - 50.51
Toronto - 8 - 50.54
Nashville - 7 - 50.72
New Jersey - 8 - 50.85
San Jose - 8 - 50.85
Florida - 8 - 50.86
Detroit - 8 - 50.99
Pittsburgh - 7 - 51.17
Phoenix - 8 - 51.19
Philadelphia - 8 - 51.52
Dallas - 9 - 52.11

Here it is by conference, and without the teams that have very little chance to make the playoffs:

East:
Montreal - 8 - 48.27
Boston - 8 - 48.54
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.63
NY Islanders - 7 - 49.19
Washington - 7 - 49.81
Ottawa - 8 - 49.88
NY Rangers - 8 - 50.51
Toronto - 8 - 50.54
New Jersey - 8 - 50.85
Pittsburgh - 7 - 51.17

West:
Minnesota - 8 - 48.8
Anaheim - 7 - 49.2
Vancouver - 8 - 49.3
Los Angeles - 7 - 49.5
Chicago - 9 - 49.95
St. Louis - 9 - 50.13
Columbus - 8 - 50.19
San Jose - 8 - 50.85
Detroit - 8 - 50.99
Phoenix - 8 - 51.19
Dallas - 9 - 52.11

 

[doubledown99]

So the higher the Fenwick easier the schedule or tougher?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

It should be that the tougher schedule corresponds with higher Fenwick.

Here's a good primer on Fenwick:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/7/25/3184137/intro-to-advanced-hockey-statistics-fenwick

 

[Pi]

So the higher the Fenwick easier the schedule or tougher?

The higher the Fenwick, the harder the competition.

 

[Rorschach]

Los Angeles Fenwick for this measurement has an advantage because they don't have to play themselves nor Boston.

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Los Angeles Fenwick for this measurement has an advantage because they don't have to play themselves nor Boston.

I agree that it's an advantage, but not just in the measure. The measure reflects reality, which is that LA and Boston are good teams and therefore have have an advantage because they don't have to play themselves.

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Update, by conference, without teams who are 4+ points out of 8th at present:

West:
Anaheim - 6 - 47.66
Chicago - 7 - 49.24
Minnesota - 7 - 49.29
Vancouver - 7 - 49.55
Los Angeles - 6 - 49.94
Columbus - 6 - 49.99
St. Louis - 7 - 50.01
Detroit - 6 - 50.95
San Jose - 7 - 51.37
Phoenix - 7 - 51.44
Dallas - 7 - 52.81


East:
Boston - 7 - 48.06
NY Islanders - 6 - 48.31
Montreal - 7 - 48.64
Winnipeg - 6 - 48.87
Ottawa - 7 - 49.26
Toronto - 7 - 50.36
NY Rangers - 7 - 50.44
Washington - 6 - 50.74
Pittsburgh - 6 - 51.39

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Update April 17 prior to games:

West:
Anaheim - 6 - 47.67
Los Angeles - 5 - 49.27
Chicago - 6 - 49.31
Vancouver - 5 - 49.52
St. Louis - 6 - 49.6
San Jose - 5 - 50.03
Minnesota - 5 - 50.26
Columbus - 5 - 50.46
Detroit - 6 - 50.79
Dallas - 6 - 52.28

East:
NY Islanders - 5 - 47.25
Boston - 6 - 47.59
Ottawa - 5 - 47.86
Montreal - 6 - 48.81
Winnipeg - 5 - 49.17
Toronto - 5 - 50.12
NY Rangers - 6 - 50.42
Pittsburgh - 6 - 50.95
Washington - 5 - 51.87

 

[Teeder9]

Does this take into account road games? 4 of the 5 teams the Isles face have winning records at home. Pretty much the road that killed Philly, and Buffalo. It is what it is I suppose, but it seems odd that playing your last 5 on the road against 4 decent home home teams would yield an easier schedule for you

 

[8inblack]

Nevermind saw it was listed oppositely.

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Does this take into account road games? 4 of the 5 teams the Isles face have winning records at home. Pretty much the road that killed Philly, and Buffalo. It is what it is I suppose, but it seems odd that playing your last 5 on the road against 4 decent home home teams would yield an easier schedule for you

No, it doesn't factor in road / home. It's just a straight up average of the 5v5 Fenwick-Close performance of each team's remaining opponents.

I'm not suggesting this should be taken as the be-all end-all of strength of schedule. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

 

[SaskRinkRat]

Here's the update (even though I admit this gets less and less interesting as GRs decrease). This time I split up GRs by home (first) and road:

West:
Anaheim - 1 - 4 - 48.06
Los Angeles - 3 - 2 - 49.4
St. Louis - 5 - 1 - 49.55
Vancouver - 3 - 2 - 49.7
San Jose - 3 - 2 - 50.03
Minnesota - 3 - 2 - 50.2
Chicago - 3 - 3 - 50.64
Dallas - 3 - 3 - 52.32
Detroit - 3 - 2 - 52.76
Columbus - 1 - 3 - 53.44

East:
Montreal - 2 - 3 - 46.69
NY Islanders - 0 - 5 - 47.27
NY Rangers - 3 - 3 - 47.99
Boston - 3 - 2 - 48.83
Ottawa - 4 - 1 - 48.86
Pittsburgh - 2 - 3 - 49.35
Toronto - 2 - 3 - 50.11
Winnipeg - 3 - 2 - 50.17
Buffalo - 3 - 1 - 50.79
Washington - 3 - 2 - 51.45

 

[Teeder9]

No, it doesn't factor in road / home. It's just a straight up average of the 5v5 Fenwick-Close performance of each team's remaining opponents.

I'm not suggesting this should be taken as the be-all end-all of strength of schedule. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

Thanks. Just wasn't sure