Fantasy Mock Draft Discussion

[Panda Bear]

Current to the Jake DeBrusk pick, this is what I have:

Top Three Teams (except Ottawa):
1. Calgary
2. Buffalo
3. Dallas

Anaheim	182.5
Arizona	184.6
Boston	181.3
Buffalo	201.9
Calgary	205.8
Carolina	193.4
Chicago	182
Colorado	189.7
Colombus	183.7
Dallas	201.6
Detroit	188
Edmonton	186.1
Florida	194.5
New Jersey	170
Los Angeles	196.6
Minnesota	190.7
Montreal	189.3
Nashville	188.4
NYI	187.1
NYR	189.8
Ottawa	211.7
Philadelphia	191
Pittsburgh	186.8
San Jose	195.5
St. Louis	183.9
Tampa	192.9
Toronto	181.9
Vancouver	188.6
Vegas	172.6
Washington	193.3
Winnipeg	176.2
Average	189.1
Std Dev	8.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Based on:

• Skaters: points prorated to an 82 game season, GF% share, DFF%*0.462, DFF% rel*0.462, CF%*0.345, CF% rel*0.345, and %TOI vs Elites.
• Goalies: save percentage, goals saved above average based on league average, quality start percentage, point share per game, and (number of starts - league average # of starts)
• Quarantine: what is life

All data is taken from this season and this season only.

Note: Teams with a goalie picked will be averaged higher at current point in draft.

 

[Ainec]

the Canucks fans in this have drafted the best teams so far

they say competition makes you strong; bonus for living under the shadows of the GOAT drafter

 

[Paralyzer008]

^ see for example, and great work there Panda - for my team, it'll look worse on there than how I perceive it because I have two guys who I think giving them a fresh start could boost them massively considering I got them a bit later. I can't imagine how much my numbers would drop based on the seasons Bobrovsky + Subban had, but the value for rounds I got them in was worth it because both are award-winning players. Bobrovsky actually comes out good in some stats this year that suggest his .900 isn't all his fault (3rd in high-danger saves, 3rd in high-danger shots against)

Joey said something like that earlier with his Kessel pick - who will likely get dinged on that list too but is likely better than a 38 point player in a defensive system. Kessel could easily rebound and thrive in his new system.

Those numbers would vary with bigger samples over a two-year stretch - for example, Calgary is extremely high in part maybe because Matthews has a 61% DFF this year vs grit lines and a 54% vs elite. Last year? Matthews was only at a 48% vs elite. 6 percent of a difference. He's probably somewhere in the middle, and there's a lot of other guys who more fairly would reflect there (I'd think?)

I use similar analytics to you to grade teams, but my list will look vastly different than yours - but that's the cool part of the draft! Everyone has a different opinion.

 

[Joey Moss]

I have Kessel on a line with Crosby and Guentzel why couldn’t he put up 80 points again on that line?

These are the things that make it interesting. Fancy stats are worthless to me.

 

[Panda Bear]

I'm not quite bored enough to scrape data from the previous two seasons--playoffs included--and weight them accordingly.

The list places a huge penalty on players having uncharacteristically bad seasons (like Kessel and Subban) and screws me for passing on higher reputation players as voters will respond more positively to names they know better.

 

[Panda Bear]

^ see for example, and great work there Panda - for my team, it'll look worse on there than how I perceive it because I have two guys who I think giving them a fresh start could boost them massively considering I got them a bit later. I can't imagine how much my numbers would drop based on the seasons Bobrovsky + Subban had, but the value for rounds I got them in was worth it because both are award-winning players. Bobrovsky actually comes out good in some stats this year that suggest his .900 isn't all his fault (3rd in high-danger saves, 3rd in high-danger shots against)

Joey said something like that earlier with his Kessel pick - who will likely get dinged on that list too but is likely better than a 38 point player in a defensive system. Kessel could easily rebound and thrive in his new system.

Those numbers would vary with bigger samples over a two-year stretch - for example, Calgary is extremely high in part maybe because Matthews has a 61% DFF this year vs grit lines and a 54% vs elite. Last year? Matthews was only at a 48% vs elite. 6 percent of a difference. He's probably somewhere in the middle, and there's a lot of other guys who more fairly would reflect there (I'd think?)

I use similar analytics to you to grade teams, but my list will look vastly different than yours - but that's the cool part of the draft! Everyone has a different opinion.

Obviously I would be curious to see your list either now or after the draft.

 

[Nucker101]

the Canucks fans in this have drafted the best teams so far

they say competition makes you strong; bonus for living under the shadows of the GOAT drafter

 

[Paralyzer008]

Obviously I would be curious to see your list either now or after the draft.

Problem with my list is I calculated numbers over THREE years - needless to say, some guys are WAY too high - so I have a list as a basis, but really I'm picking off of who is the best player in a range of guys, not necessarily just the top name on my list.

If I made my list 2 years, then I'd really like what I could work with.

 

[Panda Bear]

Did you average or weight them like 60/30/10?

 

[Llamamoto]

I have Kessel on a line with Crosby and Guentzel why couldn’t he put up 80 points again on that line?

These are the things that make it interesting. Fancy stats are worthless to me.

I agree that Kessel would return to his previous form on a line with Crosby.

I also hope voters take into account that Teravainen playing with McDavid would probably boost him 20 points or so, making him a 90 point player.

 

[donut]

I really dislike page 5 of the draft thread.... GG my list...

 

[belair]

I have Kessel on a line with Crosby and Guentzel why couldn’t he put up 80 points again on that line?

These are the things that make it interesting. Fancy stats are worthless to me.

I agree with your argument here. Advanced statistics would be relatively useless here considering a lot of that data is based on these players' current situations. Change the locale, who they're playing with, behind or in front of and it's a whole different ball game.

That being said, I'm not convinced Kessel reverts to anything close to his former self regardless of who's supporting him. He looked awful this season in Arizona. And he's been sheltered for several years now. Assuming Sid's line is seeing the big boy match-ups, I think Kessel hurts that line more than helps it.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Winnipeg	176.2
Average	189.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Teams with a goalie picked will be averaged higher at current point in draft.

I beg to differ

 

[OB5]

Goes young, cheap and hella productive by selecting Kailer Yamamoto! Should be a nice compliment to Ovechkin/Huberdeau.
@DanCloutiers5hole up

 

[Llamamoto]

Goes young, cheap and hella productive by selecting Kailer Yamamoto! Should be a nice compliment to Ovechkin/Huberdeau.
@DanCloutiers5hole up

 

[OB5]

Goes young, cheap and hella productive by selecting Kailer Yamamoto! Should be a nice compliment to Ovechkin/Huberdeau.
@DanCloutiers5hole up

Wait wrong thread sorry it’s early

 

[OB5]

I also am not sure how to react to this reaction

 

[Llamamoto]

I also am not sure how to react to this reaction

You can trade him to me.

 

[m0pe]

selects Patric Hornqvist

@AveryStar4Eva up next

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I tried to trade with @McMozesmadness but i got into some lettuce and forgot about it

I think my guy is still there....but i thought of another guy that was even better but now i forgot that too.

#yolo

 

[Makaveli]

Current to the Jake DeBrusk pick, this is what I have:

Top Three Teams (except Ottawa):
1. Calgary
2. Buffalo
3. Dallas

Anaheim	182.5
Arizona	184.6
Boston	181.3
Buffalo	201.9
Calgary	205.8
Carolina	193.4
Chicago	182
Colorado	189.7
Colombus	183.7
Dallas	201.6
Detroit	188
Edmonton	186.1
Florida	194.5
New Jersey	170
Los Angeles	196.6
Minnesota	190.7
Montreal	189.3
Nashville	188.4
NYI	187.1
NYR	189.8
Ottawa	211.7
Philadelphia	191
Pittsburgh	186.8
San Jose	195.5
St. Louis	183.9
Tampa	192.9
Toronto	181.9
Vancouver	188.6
Vegas	172.6
Washington	193.3
Winnipeg	176.2
Average	189.1
Std Dev	8.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Based on:

• Skaters: points prorated to an 82 game season, GF% share, DFF%*0.462, DFF% rel*0.462, CF%*0.345, CF% rel*0.345, and %TOI vs Elites.
• Goalies: save percentage, goals saved above average based on league average, quality start percentage, point share per game, and (number of starts - league average # of starts)
• Quarantine: what is life

All data is taken from this season and this season only.

Note: Teams with a goalie picked will be averaged higher at current point in draft.

So basically you’re saying my team sucks, thanks.

 

[hi]

After doing a bunch of these, drafting to appeal to the voters in the polls section isn't enjoyable. Your sanity and overall happiness will improve if you just draft players that you like around where you think they should be drafted.

That's just me though. I'm going to go hug a tree and drop acid with Jared Leto at burning man

 

[Llamamoto]

For the last mock draft, we tried to do voting in the polls section, but the votes were awful. People voted as if the teams were IRL and we had to redo the votes in-house.

I say we just do voting amongst the GMs, playoffs and regular season.

 

[m0pe]

For the last mock draft, we tried to do voting in the polls section, but the votes were awful. People voted as if the teams were IRL and we had to redo the votes in-house.

I say we just do voting amongst the GMs, playoffs and regular season.

Yeah I had the misfortune of having 2 crappy IRL teams for my name and that was my death sentence in my bid for playoffs. Polls for final 4 maybe could work with Team A,B,C,D...but for anymore the voting should just be done in here.

 

[Llamamoto]

Yeah I had the misfortune of having 2 crappy IRL teams for my name and that was my death sentence in my bid for playoffs. Polls for final 4 maybe could work with Team A,B,C,D...but for anymore the voting should just be done in here.

A DominicBoltsFan drafted Tampa team with Anisimov as their top line center managed to make the playoffs. (@LatvianTwist t0ok over as GM and managed to improve the team, but still...)