Fancy stats say...

[Loki]

Oilers aren't the worst team in the league.

According to this the Oilers are due a few points.. Have they been as bad as it seems? or do the Corsi numbers lie to us? Don't get me wrong, I think the Oilers stink bad, but maybe they haven't been getting any breaks so far this year either.

Oilers are ranked 11th in the league whereas those Calgary "Almost done the rebuild" Flames are 29th and everybody is dancing in the streets.

Are the Oilers bad, or do they just look bad?

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php

Click to read more...

 

[McAsuno]

Yeahyeahyeah, corsi's good for the oilers. I want wins nonetheless. Yawn..

 

[dem]

Corsi Cup Champions 2015

 

[doulos]

What is their Corsi when within a goal compared to their Corsi when down by 2+?

 

[Jumptheshark]

Oilers aren't the worst team in the league.

According to this the Oilers are due a few points.. Have they been as bad as it seems? or do the Corsi numbers lie to us? Don't get me wrong, I think the Oilers stink bad, but maybe they haven't been getting any breaks so far this year either.

Oilers are ranked 11th in the league whereas those Calgary "Almost done the rebuild" Flames are 29th and everybody is dancing in the streets.

Are the Oilers bad, or do they just look bad?

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php

oilers are proof that fancy or advance stats are not where they should be in the nhl yet

 

[dustrock]

Few points:

(1) What is their Corsi Close (or Fenwick Close)? I.e., how much of that is score effects. "Wow we played great against the Kings once it was 6-0."

(2) How much of Eakins' systems do we blame for their league-low 89 PDO (terrible shooting %age and goalie save %age)?

 

[OiledUp]

But what does the fox say?

 

[doulos]

Few points:

(1) What is their Corsi Close (or Fenwick Close)? I.e., how much of that is score effects. "Wow we played great against the Kings once it was 6-0."

(2) How much of Eakins' systems do we blame for their league-low 89 PDO (terrible shooting %age and goalie save %age)?

Thanks, that's the term I was digging for in my previous query.

 

[harpoon]

Its an interesting point. Personally I've never had a lick of use for the so called advanced stats for the simple reason that not all shots are equal. I thought that one comment from the Ferraro article in another thread was worth posting up in this thread for anyone who may not have seen it.

Keri Kettle · Top commenter · Assistant Professor at University of Miami

So, the Oilers have out-chanced two opponents (Calgary and Arizona) and been out-chanced by two opponents (LA and Vancouver), with the problems vs. the Canucks largely attributable to being shorthanded a ton. Yet, the team has been outscored by a 2-1 margin.
According to you (and other knowledgeable posters) scoring chances are the key metric of performance, with goals being a poorer measure (due to the high degree of variability). Yet, here we are, debating whether the team's performance is horrendous despite the better metric (scoring chances) indicating that it's not.
I like Ferraro as an analyst, but I also question whether he's watched entire games or just the highlights (which, admittedly, make the Oilers look like the keystone cops). Consider, for instance, the 1st period, in which the Oilers out-chanced the Coyotes 8-4. If you watch the whole period (as I did) you come away with the impression that the Oilers should be leading. If you watch the highlights - whether it's the breakaway behind Petry or Scrivens' puckhandling - you are left with a completely different impression.
Here's the thing: you either believe in the underlying metrics, and accept the fact that the Oilers are an improved team with bad goaltending, or you turn your back on those metrics (which you have argued in support of) and conclude the Oilers are worse than last year. I choose the former, not the latter.

 

[Insta]

We skew the numbers because the gaffes we have are so outrageous and plentiful that a shot against the Oilers is much more likely to be a goal.

 

[dustrock]

Here's the thing: you either believe in the underlying metrics, and accept the fact that the Oilers are an improved team with bad goaltending, or you turn your back on those metrics (which you have argued in support of) and conclude the Oilers are worse than last year. I choose the former, not the latter.[/I]

Wow, love these absolute statements. What if we want to ask more questions?

What if Scrivens is actually having to make a much higher number of 5-alarm-bell saves for the Oilers to have a chance to win, because our defensive coverage leads to wide-open opportunities in the slot for the opposing team?

What if our possession numbers have improved, but our team shooting percentage stays around 5% all year because Eakins doesn't have a great 5v5 offensive system?

Don't just rely on Corsi/Fenwick, for the love of Pocklington.

 

[ManofSteel55]

We should have 2 wins out of the first four. Hit a hot goalie in Calgary and an unlucky bounce that cost the game in Vancouver. Our advanced stats were probably really good those games. But the last two have been among the worst this team has ever...eeeeeeeever played since I started watching in the mid 80's. If this was a video game, they would get an achievement for sucking as bad as they did in those two games.

 

[harpoon]

What if Scrivens is actually having to make a much higher number of 5-alarm-bell saves for the Oilers to have a chance to win,

I'm OK with it if he lets those "5-alarm" chances get by him once in awhile.
I'm not going to jump all over the man until he gets at least as many chances in this town as Dubnyk got, but the simple truth is that Scrivens (and Fasth) has been giving up goals on routine shots, and very stoppable shots. Please don't try to pretend that isn't the case.

And just to reiterate that the post above is not my words. They are the words of Mr Kettle.

 

[Mr Positive]

well, we will know if corsi is BS if the Oilers continue to lose, but imo this season is still too short to really make that conclusion yet. Corsi only claims to work as a general tend.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Regular stats say we're DFL.

 

[McGoMcD]

I am going to back away from the ledge, the oilers have had horrible goaltending, but Scrivy will come around. As long as Nuge isn't hurt bad, this team will gets some wins.

 

[GMofOilers]

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20142015&game=20049

http://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20142015&game=20046

Only when we are behind in the last 2 games have we lead in the corsi.

 

[EnthusiasticYak]

So basically now would be the time to sell the first rounder

 

[oobga]

The small sample size allows them to still live off that good run they had against the flames in game 1. No worries though, when he play more good teams all will be right in the world.

 

[Oi'll say!]

Its an interesting point. Personally I've never had a lick of use for the so called advanced stats for the simple reason that not all shots are equal. I thought that one comment from the Ferraro article in another thread was worth posting up in this thread for anyone who may not have seen it.

Keri Kettle · Top commenter · Assistant Professor at University of Miami

So, the Oilers have out-chanced two opponents (Calgary and Arizona) and been out-chanced by two opponents (LA and Vancouver), with the problems vs. the Canucks largely attributable to being shorthanded a ton. Yet, the team has been outscored by a 2-1 margin.
According to you (and other knowledgeable posters) scoring chances are the key metric of performance, with goals being a poorer measure (due to the high degree of variability). Yet, here we are, debating whether the team's performance is horrendous despite the better metric (scoring chances) indicating that it's not.
I like Ferraro as an analyst, but I also question whether he's watched entire games or just the highlights (which, admittedly, make the Oilers look like the keystone cops). Consider, for instance, the 1st period, in which the Oilers out-chanced the Coyotes 8-4. If you watch the whole period (as I did) you come away with the impression that the Oilers should be leading. If you watch the highlights - whether it's the breakaway behind Petry or Scrivens' puckhandling - you are left with a completely different impression.
Here's the thing: you either believe in the underlying metrics, and accept the fact that the Oilers are an improved team with bad goaltending, or you turn your back on those metrics (which you have argued in support of) and conclude the Oilers are worse than last year. I choose the former, not the latter.

why are there only two choices: "improved or worse than last year"?

They were so gut-wrenchingly bad last year that a small improvement still makes them horrible but that's still missing the point entirely.

The main thing is that the oilers could get worse this year and that would be ok as long as Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov, Schultz, Petry, Nurse and LD are on the road to reaching their max potential. Propping th e team up with MacTs mastermind acquisitions doesn't do us any good if our high draft picks don't develop. And they are not by any accounts developing. Hall was very good before Eakins got here and he's still a stallion but he can't find his own barn. Eberle is worse, yak is worse, Petry is overwhelmed, the goalies are following the DD developmental path....
I started a thread last year about how well players played in their first twenty games as Oulers vs the rest of their short careers here up to this point. I don't have time to cover that whole topic again but the Coles notes version says that it's disappointing that players come here ready to compete in the NHL and become unable to compete in the NHL.
The oilers as a team have given up on using the body effectively. If there was a stat called bodycheck corsi the oilers would be 40th in the NHL.

I'm so sick of this team I can't even finish a post. I'm done lol

 

[voxel]

In terms of even strength puck possession, you can tell this team on ice is vastly better than last year... maybe only the Kings game and short handed against Canucks were the Oilers hemmed in their own zone for long periods. I really like what I saw in the preseason with the forwards winning board puck battles.

Bad goaltending and giving up too many grade A scoring chances are the big problems right now. Neither are easy to fix

 

[PinSeeker]

In terms of even strength puck possession, you can tell this team on ice is vastly better than last year... maybe only the Kings game and short handed against Canucks were the Oilers hemmed in their own zone for long periods. I really like what I saw in the preseason with the forwards winning board puck battles.

Bad goaltending and giving up too many grade A scoring chances are the big problems right now. Neither are easy to fix

No need for me to add anything, agree with every word.

 

[5 14 6 1]

In terms of even strength puck possession, you can tell this team on ice is vastly better than last year... maybe only the Kings game and short handed against Canucks were the Oilers hemmed in their own zone for long periods. I really like what I saw in the preseason with the forwards winning board puck battles.

Bad goaltending and giving up too many grade A scoring chances are the big problems right now. Neither are easy to fix

Pretty much

 

[oobga]

In terms of even strength puck possession, you can tell this team on ice is vastly better than last year... maybe only the Kings game and short handed against Canucks were the Oilers hemmed in their own zone for long periods. I really like what I saw in the preseason with the forwards winning board puck battles.

Bad goaltending and giving up too many grade A scoring chances are the big problems right now. Neither are easy to fix

Isn't this just like the start of last year? All the analytics guys were praising Eakins for the good corsi numbers and all the blame was going to Dubs (and eventually the swarm) for why we weren't actually winning. Then the wheels eventually fell off, especially when we had to go on long runs of playing good teams.

 

[Mcnofool6110]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

These fancy stats say we're sitting at the worst chance of making the playoffs in the whole damn league.