Face offs

[BobRouse]

Was thinking of something....I know the evidence out there doesn't really tell if face offs are important or not but it seems intuitive that they certainly are.

Now....

Last year we were 23rd in the league as a team 48.8%. This with all time face off great Adam Oates as our coach (if he knew D and Goalies you'd think he'd know face offs huh?). Here is the player breakdown of the key face off takers:

Grabovski 54%
Beagle 51.7%
Backstrom 50.5%
Brouwer 51.2%
Fehr 46%

Now ...fast forward to this year. We lose Grabovski and Kuznetsov takes more draws. We are 15th at 50.8%

Kuznetsov 44.1%
Beagle 55.2%
Backstrom 54.8%
Brouwer 60.9%
Fehr 48.3%

You'd think we'd be worse off without Grabo but there has been a dramatic across the board improvement!

What do you guys attribute this to? How we position in the dot? The new face off rules? Oates being a complete moron?

How does every single key faceoff taker (leave out Kuz due to sample size last year) improve so dramatically?

Click to read more...

 

[g00n]

I think I posted some links in the past about how faceoffs (particularly o-zone) were among the only stats that seemed to correlate directly to winning or goals or something. Maybe someone can dig it up because meh.

As for the improvement, I don't think there's been much talk about it in the press so nothing you can pin it on as far as "coach X has been working with players on faceoffs" stories.

Personally, I think it's just buy-in. Desire.

With Oates there was a seeming tolerance for lack of possession (not shot possession, REAL possession meaning puck control) since his entire gameplan was geared around passivity and counterpunching. Trotz is the opposite. The team "dogs the puck" and WANTS it. So the guys going to the dot WANT to win more.

I think most experienced centers get to the NHL level with some idea how to win faceoffs. Aside from some pro-level tricks and situational awareness unique to the NHL, they probably just want it more now.

 

[BobRouse]

I'd be interested if we could find that old post of yours. I recall asking before and someone basically showing stats that showed little correlation to anything.

Now...I know Oates preached a more passive game in retrospect. But on face offs I didn't see players bail out to set up in their position.

The mentality I totally get. To a man there seems to be more hunger.

I think it was Oates being a total idiot too as you sorta suggest.

I bet in our last 14 games (10-1-3 stretch) our face off numbers are much better than they were in the first 24 games. Just a hunch but it SEEMS like we're winning far more faceoffs. Backstrom especially.

Check this:


06-07 49.8% 17th (Hanlon cap trap for most of year)
07-08 51.2% 9th (BB took over at Thanksgiving)
08-09 51.8% 5th
09-10 51.5% 6th
10-11 51.6% 6th
11-12 50% 17th
12-13 50.8% 12th (shortened year - unbalanced schedule..played less West teams and more SE teams)
13-14 48.8% 23rd

Now...we were a top 6 team with Boudreau at the helm. He was a very aggressive coach for the most part.

Hunter and Oates come in and instantly we become a passive team with middling to poor possession and our face offs drastically decline.

There has to be some correlation I'd think.

I'd wager in 07-08 we were a poor faceoff team before BB took over.

I'd wager in 11-12 our face off % went down after Hunter took over.

 

[g00n]

I'd be interested if we could find that old post of yours. I recall asking before and someone basically showing stats that showed little correlation to anything.

Now...I know Oates preached a more passive game in retrospect. But on face offs I didn't see players bail out to set up in their position.

The mentality I totally get. To a man there seems to be more hunger.

I think it was Oates being a total idiot too as you sorta suggest.

I bet in our last 14 games (10-1-3 stretch) our face off numbers are much better than they were in the first 24 games. Just a hunch but it SEEMS like we're winning far more faceoffs. Backstrom especially.

Check this:


06-07 49.8% 17th (Hanlon cap trap for most of year)
07-08 51.2% 9th (BB took over at Thanksgiving)
08-09 51.8% 5th
09-10 51.5% 6th
10-11 51.6% 6th
11-12 50% 17th
12-13 50.8% 12th (shortened year - unbalanced schedule..played less West teams and more SE teams)
13-14 48.8% 23rd

Now...we were a top 6 team with Boudreau at the helm. He was a very aggressive coach for the most part.

Hunter and Oates come in and instantly we become a passive team with middling to poor possession and our face offs drastically decline.

There has to be some correlation I'd think.

I'd wager in 07-08 we were a poor faceoff team before BB took over.

I'd wager in 11-12 our face off % went down after Hunter took over.

I think I linked the articles in the analytics thread if you want to pop over and look. It was more of a comment by the author of one of the articles regarding the results of his study than some massive stat tables or graphics.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Guesses based on little intuition:
1. Regression to the mean has not happened completely yet.
2. Offensive zone faceoffs are easier than defensive ones, and they are spending more time in the offensive zone.
3. As you have hypothesized, aggressive teams are more aggressive on faceoffs (I like this one).
4. Lane Lambert Tips
5. Oates out of their heads.
6. Fehr, Backstrom, and Beagle all getting better on their own.

 

[FloridaCap]

IIRC, Backstrom has always been streaky in the dot. I fully expect him to drop down to 50-52% by the end of the year. If not, good for him.

Kuznetsov is actually better than I thought. I was expecting 35% or so out of him. Instead he's Ribeiro-status.

 

[searle]

Guesses based on little intuition:
1. Regression to the mean has not happened completely yet.
2. Offensive zone faceoffs are easier than defensive ones, and they are spending more time in the offensive zone.
3. As you have hypothesized, aggressive teams are more aggressive on faceoffs (I like this one).
4. Lane Lambert Tips
5. Oates out of their heads.
6. Fehr, Backstrom, and Beagle all getting better on their own.

Out of interest why do you say this? I would have thought that people would put out their more defensive players and perhaps their better faceoff men in their own zone to get control in a crucial area - what makes you say offensive faceoffs are easier?

 

[Hivemind]

I'm curious if/how winger deployment has impacted this. I don't think our centers, as a whole, have magically become a lot better at the dot. Before he was hired by Edmonton and his blog taken down, Tyler Dellow had an interesting article regarding the Oiler's faceoff percentages last year, and how it all changed at a particular date. The Oilers made some systems change that raise their faceoff winning percentage, but also limited their positive corsi-events after a faceoff win in the process. Somehow the changed their system to win the draw, but as a result they were less ideally suited to use the puck after winning the draw.

It was a really good article, pity it's gone now.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Out of interest why do you say this? I would have thought that people would put out their more defensive players and perhaps their better faceoff men in their own zone to get control in a crucial area - what makes you say offensive faceoffs are easier?

I don't know that they are, but if they are, it could be a reason.

Possible answers:
In the defensive zone, teams don't want their centers winning it to the net, so they only have left take it in left dot, and right in right, or have the added pressure and the offensive team knows their tactics because of it (winning faceoffs is as much about knowing what the other guy is doing as doing anything yourself).
Defensive teams may be more likely to cover a man instead of helping out their center on a draw. (Do they want to get out and cover OV's one-timer or help the center out?) This may depend on the team, but it only takes a few to move the percentages enough.
In summation, generally there are more options in the offensive zone faceoff as how to win it, who to win it to, who can help, and even who can take it.

edit: I found this that does not seem to back it up.

 

[BobRouse]

Either way the drastic (over 2% per player) increase across the board suggests its more than just each player suddenly getting better.

Under BB how many times did we see a goal from Ovie or Semin directly off a FO win by Backstrom? I remember quite a few. We saw one the other night vs the Islanders.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Either way the drastic (over 2% per player) increase across the board suggests its more than just each player suddenly getting better.

Under BB how many times did we see a goal from Ovie or Semin directly off a FO win by Backstrom? I remember quite a few. We saw one the other night vs the Islanders.

FWIW Beagle was a guy that averaged over 55% each year except last year.

 

[HunterSThompson]

I'm curious if/how winger deployment has impacted this. I don't think our centers, as a whole, have magically become a lot better at the dot. Before he was hired by Edmonton and his blog taken down, Tyler Dellow had an interesting article regarding the Oiler's faceoff percentages last year, and how it all changed at a particular date. The Oilers made some systems change that raise their faceoff winning percentage, but also limited their positive corsi-events after a faceoff win in the process. Somehow the changed their system to win the draw, but as a result they were less ideally suited to use the puck after winning the draw.

It was a really good article, pity it's gone now.

Did you see that Dellow was fired? Hopefully he didn't burn the drive with all that material on it.

 

[artilector]

It's uncanny.