Salary Cap: ExpendaNikita Zaitsev (UFA 2024) - $4.50Mble Players

[Leafsman]

Kadri is a huge part of the core.

He's a part of why we can even bring Tavares in. You have a 30-goal scoring 3C making $4.5M - he's as cap friendly as you get.

Zaitsev will prove to everyone that he's not only worth his very-friendly contract but will be worth quite a bit more. He is a great dman and a solid 2nd pairing guy.

 

[Mugzy97]

Current AAV:

Zach Hyman - $2.35M
Connor Brown - $2.10M
Kasperi Kapanen - $860,000
Travis Dermott - $860,000

Total: ~ $6.1M

Projected AAV:

Zach Hyman - $3.5M
Connor Brown - $3.5M
Kasperi Kapanen - $3M
Travis Dermott - $3M

Total: ~ $13M

That's an additional $7M in raises, by 2021.

That's all speculated raises, if you believe Brown or Hyman will get 3.5M or not. I know this is a hockey board and it's fun to speculate, but they'll deal with this stuff when the time comes. Lots can change between now and then.

 

[Boutette]

Current AAV:

Zach Hyman - $2.35M
Connor Brown - $2.10M
Kasperi Kapanen - $860,000
Travis Dermott - $860,000

Total: ~ $6.1M

Projected AAV:

Zach Hyman - $3.5M
Connor Brown - $3.5M
Kasperi Kapanen - $3M
Travis Dermott - $3M

Total: ~ $13M

That's an additional $7M in raises, by 2021.

Well, at current rates, the cap will increase by $7 million by 2021, plus either Brown or Kapanen or even Hyman may be playing in Seattle by then. And there will likely be replacements for each of them on cheaper ELC contracts as well likely up the pipe.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Middle 6 wingers will be the first guys shipped out to create room. JVR was only the first to let walk. Especially with Marner and possibly Nylander (if he's not traded for a D having a significant salary).

Marleau, Brown and Hyman will be replaced by guys such as Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom, free agents or recent draft picks. After them we'll recycle to the next group. There will be a lot of turnover at the wing position.

Look how many middle 6 wingers the Hawks have gone through over the years.

If there is any position we should be okay carrying a guy not on a great deal or even being overpaid it's on D and specifically at Right D so Zaitsev is likely fine.

As much as I like Kadri towards the end of his current deal I could see him being either traded similar to how the Hawks dealt Dave Bolland or let walk as a free agent.

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Well, at current rates, the cap will increase by $7 million by 2021, plus either Brown or Kapanen or even Hyman may be playing in Seattle by then. And there will likely be replacements for each of them on cheaper ELC contracts as well likely up the pipe.

This.

As much as I like hometown players, I can't see Brown and/or Hyman being on this team in 3 or 4 years.

They'll be role players getting $3.5M+.

 

[Boutette]

Middle 6 wingers will be the first guys shipped out to create room. JVR was only the first to let walk. Especially with Marner and possibly Nylander (if he's not traded for a D having a significant salary).

Marleau, Brown and Hyman will be replaced by guys such as Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom, free agents or recent draft picks. After them we'll recycle to the next group. There will be a lot of turnover at the wing position.

Look how many middle 6 wingers the Hawks have gone through over the years.

If there is any position we should be okay carrying a guy not on a great deal or even being overpaid it's on D and specifically at Right D so Zaitsev is likely fine.

As much as I like Kadri towards the end of his current deal I could see him being either traded similar to how the Hawks dealt Dave Bolland or let walk as a free agent.

If Bracco has the progression arc he looks like he's 50/50 heading towards, we might also be able to let go of Nylander or Marner for that #2 RD defenceman holy grail sooner rather than later.

 

[rumman]

If Bracco has the progression arc he looks like he's 50/50 heading towards, we might also be able to let go of Nylander or Marner for that #2 RD defenceman holy grail sooner rather than later.

imo, Marner's untouchable, Willie, not so much.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I wouldn't worry about his Zaitsev's contract. He. has to play well and then the Leafs happy with him and his contract. If he doesn't play well, the Leafs have options, all them not too pleasant. Leafs just have wait and see how he performs this year.

 

[Menzinger]

If Bracco has the progression arc he looks like he's 50/50 heading towards, we might also be able to let go of Nylander or Marner for that #2 RD defenceman holy grail sooner rather than later.

I like Bracco, but he’s the kind of guy who will be able to replace depth scoring like Brown when they start to ask for a raise. He’s not going to replace guys who had 60 point rookie seasons

 

[Ricky Bobby]

If Bracco has the progression arc he looks like he's 50/50 heading towards, we might also be able to let go of Nylander or Marner for that #2 RD defenceman holy grail sooner rather than later.

Bracco won't come close to replacing Nylander or Marner.

This past season at 21, Bracco scored at a .64 pace in the AHL. Nylander was close to a PPG at 18 in the AHL. Marner is from the same draft and already has 2 seasons scoring over 60 points under his belt.

Bracco will be lucky to become a Brown or Hyman level impact player (different style though).

Personally, I think Bracco won't amount to much of anything just like Leivo. Both are skill guys who are skilled and neither really bring another element that makes them tough to play against like being good PKers, forecheckers, tenacious, great speed, etc.

Look at Kapanen, Brown, Hyman, Johnsson or even the recently departed Komarov. They all bring elements that make them hard to play against.

 

[Boutette]

Bracco won't come close to replacing Nylander or Marner.

This past season at 21, Bracco scored at a .64 pace in the AHL. Nylander was close to a PPG at 18 in the AHL. Marner is from the same draft and already has 2 seasons scoring over 60 points under his belt.

Bracco will be lucky to become a Brown or Hyman level impact player (different style though).

Personally, I think Bracco won't amount to much of anything just like Leivo. Both are skill guys who are skilled and neither really bring another element that makes them tough to play against like being good PKers, forecheckers, tenacious, great speed, etc.

Look at Kapanen, Brown, Hyman, Johnsson or even the recently departed Komarov. They all bring elements that make them hard to play against.

Bracco was put on 4th line duty to develop his 2-way skills for most of the season as anyone who gives a damn would know. Whenever he was promoted above the 4th line he was a PPG+ player. The Marlies of this past year was a full team, unlike when Nylander was a member. Keefe has repeatedly calls his playmaking skills 'elite', something he has never ascribed to any of the players under his tutelage. Bracco doesn't even need to be a Nylander or Marner. IMHO, he's capable of being 75% either. And that's a win at his likely Cap cost in a couple years, because in the Cap world, saving $6-7 mil which can be moved from an area of vast strength (the wings) to turn an area of weakness (defence) into a strength is what wins you cups and keeps you a contender.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Bracco was put on 4th line duty to develop his 2-way skills for most of the season as anyone who gives a damn would know. Whenever he was promoted above the 4th line he was a PPG+ player. The Marlies of this past year was a full team, unlike when Nylander was a member. Keefe has repeatedly calls his playmaking skills 'elite', something he has never ascribed to any of the players under his tutelage. Bracco doesn't even need to be a Nylander or Marner. IMHO, he's capable of being 75% either. And that's a win at his likely Cap cost in a couple years, because in the Cap world, saving $6-7 mil which can be moved from an area of vast strength (the wings) to turn an area of weakness (defence) into a strength is what wins you cups and keeps you a contender.

He might but the fact that he's undersized and not a great 200ft. player proves my point that the odds are just so-so that he'll amount to anything.

Once again Nylander was doing that at 18 in his post draft year. Bracco was in his +3 draft year. Completely different.

Leivo, Brown and Leipsic all had just as good if not better 1st AHL seasons at almost the exact same age as Bracco. Only 1 of them has really amount to much and that's Brown because besides skill he brings other elements such as PK, is a good 200ft. player, has a good motor, etc.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Brown and Hyman could realistically get $3.5M+ on their next contracts. That's $3M+ in raises, between the two.

Dermott and Kapanen are also up for relatively significant raises on their second NHL contracts.

Between the four players, the team likely has to dish out $6M to $8M in raises, depending on player performance over the next year or two.

So what? Then you move them if you have to.

 

[Boutette]

He might but the fact that he's undersized and not a great 200ft. player proves my point that the odds are just so-so that he'll amount to anything.

Once again Nylander was doing that at 18 in his post draft year. Bracco was in his +3 draft year. Completely different.

Leivo, Brown and Leipsic all had just as good if not better 1st AHL seasons at almost the exact same age as Bracco. Only 1 of them has really amount to much and that's Brown because besides skill he brings other elements such as PK, is a good 200ft. player, has a good motor, etc.

It doesn't matter one lick what they were like when they were 18. What matters is context and now and in the future and what it is for teams to operate in a Cap world, which you are completely and deliberately ignoring to support your weak and context-free argument. You are like the people who, up until mid-march who said that Johnsson's progress meant nothing. Context is reality. The cap is reality. That's why Marchessault and Gourde are on NHL teams today in important roles, even though they weren't putting up NHL points at age 18, they are putting up points better than Nylander right now! Pretend none of this exist, and your team is crap and always will be. Oh, and by the way, undersized? Bracco comes in at the same weight as Wee Willie Nylander and 10+ pounds more than Marner.

 

[Growler]

Zaitsev will prove to everyone that he's not only worth his very-friendly contract but will be worth quite a bit more. He is a great dman and a solid 2nd pairing guy.

Better hope so because his not trade clauses kick in next Summer. It's a gamble.

 

[-DeMo-]

Kadri is a huge part of the core.

He's a part of why we can even bring Tavares in. You have a 30-goal scoring 3C making $4.5M - he's as cap friendly as you get.

Zaitsev will prove to everyone that he's not only worth his very-friendly contract but will be worth quite a bit more. He is a great dman and a solid 2nd pairing guy.

I dont think anyone is talking about moving Kadri while he's under his current contract but I would hope in the next 3 or 4 years we could develop at least 1 good 3c. that we could move on from Kadri at the end of his current deal instead of re-upping him for 6-7 million depending on how much the cap goes up.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think Kadri is here until his current contract is up, then goes elsewhere, and maybe he's someone that we can develop a system replacement for to make him redundant by then so we can deal him for futures to restock. Good asset management could keep this contender going for a while if we draft & develop well

Brown and Hyman I have a hard time seeing here beyond their next raise, unless Brown really breaks out. But I think with all the NHL ready forward prospects that we have, these guys could both be dealt for futures without hurting the on ice product to help sustain the contender - or maybe one is used as the core piece of a trade that brings back an NHL ready RHD with a decent upside, like a Rasmus Andersson kind of thing. The needs are really isolated on the big club, and we have a good stock of non-roster assets and/or surplus roster assets so our buying position is really good if the right guy becomes available

on the Zaitsev contract, I think we could get whiplash with how fast the perception of that contract will change if he has a good year. If he's a #3, that contract is a steal next year let alone after 5 more years of inflation. I don't think he's a core player, but could become a value contract quickly that we want to keep because of the cap. If Liljegren becomes a top pairing RD, Rielly-Liljegren/Dermott-Zaitsev looks like a pretty good top 4 and more than passable on a team with this offense

I see the core in generations coinciding with contract term completions:
1st generation (3-4 years) - Kadri and maybe Andersen depending on what we have to replace him & his health/performance
2nd generation (7 years) - Tavares
3rd Generation (probably 2 contracts, 10-15 years) - Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly

 

[DarkKnight]

Bracco is still a BIG maybe to play at all, that's just reality.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I like to think of roster building as having an inner core, an outer core and expendables. The inner core being players that you should not under any circumstances ever relinquish (Matthews), the outer core players that you should keep for their prime and let go when they price themselves out (Kadri) and the expendables are your cheap foot soldiers that you want a steady stream of (Hyman).

Going into 2018-19 I'd say our inner core is Matthews/Marner/Rielly and arguably Nylander & Dermott depending on what I see from them this season.

The outer core is Tavares/Kadri/Andersen/Gardiner/Zaitsev and arguably Nylander/Dermott.

The rest are infantry and should be entirely comprised of RFA's preferably on ELC and 35+ contracts. These players should always be fighting for their lives on performance-based bonus contracts.

Zaitsev is only in tier two because of his contract. Otherwise he would be tier three.

 

[Nylander88]

I am not on the "Gardiner is garbage" team...but unless he is signing again for the 4 mil cap hit he has now...i think we will have to move on from him and use his 4 million elsewhere and take the savings. Bringing up a guy like Liljegren, Rosen, Borgman etc after this year. He will command 6ish easily if he has another 50 point year, and we cant afford to spend that on him.

 

[A1LeafNation]

What's the plan to replace Zaitsev...

The only reason we found out we are deep at LD (Rielly Gardiner Dermott Rosen Borgman Sandin) was because we took a step back a gave Rielly tough minutes and played some kids last year.

Why aren't we doing the same on RD. Play Zaitsev in tough minutes and let a couple kids play the right side this year (Holl Carrick Ozhiganov Liljegren). It's the only way to get a cheap good d-core.

 

[Menzinger]

Better hope so because his not trade clauses kick in next Summer. It's a gamble.

It’s a gamble at this moment I’m not sure Dubas will take.

There’s just so much risk given the term remaining. But that will depend on if he can get a replacement on the trade market

 

[kfox]

Flat or lower, of course. Because math, and stuff.

Somebody on the radio said it will rise 2 million next year solely because of JT jersey sales lol

 

[kfox]

I am not on the "Gardiner is garbage" team...but unless he is signing again for the 4 mil cap hit he has now...i think we will have to move on from him and use his 4 million elsewhere and take the savings. Bringing up a guy like Liljegren, Rosen, Borgman etc after this year. He will command 6ish easily if he has another 50 point year, and we cant afford to spend that on him.

If the fans don't back off from their playoff anger against him he won't sign again no matter what's offered

 

[Nithoniniel]

One objection I would immediately raise is that regarding Kadri as a third liner is to misrepresent his value to the team. I'd much rather look at ice time distribution and usage to ascertain his value to the team, and that puts him in a much more important light.