Speculation: expansion and this off-season

[BigFatCat999]

The media rumblings says Seattle will get approved for expansion this summer. Based on the last draft's rules it's either going to be;

* 8 skaters and a goalie

* 7 forwards, 3 defennsemen,, and a goalie

I will assume the following:

* Seattle's expansion draft will be in 2021 before the CBA expires in 2022.

* All RFA's are signed, If Rinne is re-signed no NTC/NMC.

Tolvanen will be exempt, he only played 3 games last year. (1st and 2nd year players are protected.)

Josi will become a UFA in 2020. So will Weber and Irwin. Subban, (Ellis maybe), Ekholm will be under contract.

Depending on how the Preds re-sign Josi, The 7-3-1 option will be on the table. If the Preds sign Fabbro this summer he is exempt.

The difficulty will be at forward always:

UFA's to consider in the 2021: Smith (2021), Watson (2021), that's it.

Eeli will be exempt so: Johansen, Forsberg, Turris, Arvidsson, Fiala, Jarnkrok, Sissons, Hartman. Salomaki, Bonino,

Pick your 7 from that group: Johansen, Forsberg, Fiala, Arvidsson, Turris, Jarnkrok, So I have Sissons and Hartman fighting for the last protection spot. Turris I have as a maybe. He will be 30 at the draft but his 6 million dollar ticket will not be much with salary cap inflation. Bonino will be on the last year of his contract. (Part of me thinks he's gone this summer, just an inkling). Hartman will be 2 years younger and the Preds would be protecting 3 centers. If Hartman pans out, protect him.

How does this relate to this offseason? If the Preds were to trade one of their big 4; Ellis 1 yr left but Subban has the most value, it might behoove the Preds to trade one of their big 4 to upgrade at forward, get picks or both. (A trade that keeps coming to mind is Subban to Toronto.) When I got to Jarnkrok I looked at the forwards and said 'I would miss either Sissons or Hartman but would I cry about it?' The two players who scream 'spare parts' to me are Smith and Bonino. (Pittsburgh could use an upgrade at 3rd line center and if they trade Kessel they will need a RW...) If one of Ellis or Subban is traded, the Preds can extend Josi and keep the 7-3-1 option.

I think the Preds will try and consolidate their depth to the top 3 lines. When the playoffs come, minutes are condensed. Having depth is great in the 1st round but after that?

Click to read more...

 

[GoldOnGold]

Long shot could be leaving Josi unprotected with the understanding that he resigns with the Preds, giving us a clean 7/3/1. It seems unlikely, especially since Seattle would probably drive a dump truck full of money to his house.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Long shot could be leaving Josi unprotected with the understanding that he resigns with the Preds, giving us a clean 7/3/1. It seems unlikely, especially since Seattle would probably drive a dump truck full of money to his house.

Or, Poile and co. trades one of the Big 4, re-signs Josi, and then protects 7-3-1

 

[GoldOnGold]

Or, Poile and co. trades one of the Big 4, re-signs Josi, and then protects 7-3-1

That is the other, less palatable possibility.

 

[BigFatCat999]

That is the other, less palatable possibility.

Note: let's say Subban is traded, that is Tavares' money AND Tavares can be protected, extending the cup window.

 

[Drake744]

No offense but after last summer I'm not even going to start to speculate about what might happen in 3 years. 3 years before the Vegas draft Arvidsson wasn't drafted yet.

 

[BigFatCat999]

It's a consideration.

 

[Armourboy]

Considering Poile didnt make trades to clean up anything before this last one, I would be surprised he does for this one. If he moves a Dman it will be because it makes the team better now, not 3 years down the road.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't see it as a situation where we need to lose much sleep over things. Just keep all the D for now and see how they play. I would imagine that with Josi's reputation he could get extended making the UFA angle moot. See what Ellis signs for and how well he plays relative to that. I wouldn't fear having to expose Ellis if he's at his current level and making $7M. Expose or trade when the time comes, whichever, but nothing to lose sleep over in the meantime. Ditto on contracts like Turris and Bonino. It'll always be an option to let one of those go. And who knows, maybe the Fleury blueprint makes Pekka look like an interesting take if he hangs in there over the next couple seasons.

It's never too early for vague speculation, but until we see how some players play and what their contracts are going to be, it would be premature to come to any conclusions or to make any moves directly related to expansion planning yet.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

if ellis gets 7 million a year on his next contract, we are gonna need the human rocket ship to be shipped to an island.

 

[Drake744]

if ellis gets 7 million a year on his next contract, we are gonna need the human rocket ship to be shipped to an island.

I think he gets about 5.5

 

[PredsV82]

I think he gets about 5.5

That should be about right if hed rather stay here than test the market. But I'm certain some desperate GM would pay him top pair money of he gets to July 1, which Poile clearly wont be able to do

 

[King Weber]

Question is, which defensemen in the league who have signed deals in recent years, production, role and age wise, are comparable to him?

I'd say Tyson Barrie (5.5), Kevin Shattenkirk (6.650), Torey Krug (5.25), Nick Leddy (5.5) and Justin Schultz (5.5) are pretty fair comparisons. Now add a million or so cause of the rising cap and it's pretty close to what he's gonna get. If he's serious about taking a discount then maybe something like 6.5, but I doubt it's gonna happen since NHLPA is not a big fan of players taking discounts.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nice thing is Ellis is only 27. If you could sign him for 8 years and $5.5M, I'd say go for it. He seems to love it in Nashville, maybe he'll trade that nice term and security for getting something a little less than he might on the open market.

No NMCs though or anything like that. Poile seems to do pretty well getting guys to sign at reasonable rates and forego the clauses.

I'm pretty optimistic on them getting Ellis locked in reasonably. But you just never really know - maybe he's got a more difficult agent or is more of a PA hardliner who knows it's not totally impossible he could command more. But to me, the more cap-inefficient a player is, the more likely I'm dangling him to Seattle when the time comes.

 

[LCPreds]

I really don't want to invest 8 years in Ellis. The guy is good now but can't imagine him being all that great into his mid-30s, especially considering the beating he has already taken. Definitely not getting any faster as he ages either.

 

[Drake744]

I really don't want to invest 8 years in Ellis. The guy is good now but can't imagine him being all that great into his mid-30s, especially considering the beating he has already taken. Definitely not getting any faster as he ages either.

Well, this is where the dilemma always seems to come in for teams. You could offer fewer years but you'll have to probably overpay him, or you could get good value but probably give him too many years. So it's one of those 2, or cut ties and trade him. Sacrifices have to be made one way or another

 

[GeauxPreds1]

That should be about right if hed rather stay here than test the market. But I'm certain some desperate GM would pay him top pair money of he gets to July 1, which Poile clearly wont be able to do

I don't think poile will let him get to free agency. I think if he doesn't have a contract that works for both sides poile will be forced to ship him off. I think poile learned to not have another suter incident where he walks for nothing after poile trusted that suter would sign after the season. 5 million is the most I would pay Ellis. If he wants more you trade him

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well, this is where the dilemma always seems to come in for teams. You could offer fewer years but you'll have to probably overpay him, or you could get good value but probably give him too many years. So it's one of those 2, or cut ties and trade him. Sacrifices have to be made one way or another

And in this case I would gamble that the term is relatively low-risk for the Preds. They don't hand out NTC/NMCs like candy, the way some other teams do. (Actually after Rinne's deal ends, nobody has one? Is that possible?) And there's an expansion draft coming up in which we already pretty much know we're only going to be able to protect 3 defensemen. If the term scares Seattle, so much the better. If not, the world does not end by losing our #4 d-man whose only real drawback is the length of his contract.

 

[token grinder]

Ellis will get a contract taking him through his age 32 season and then see if there is much dropoff. He isn't fast to begin with and the game keeps getting faster. He won't. I'd be leery of signing anyone past their age 32 or 33 season on a long term deal.

That is how you end up with the Seabrooks and Franzens of the world.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Ellis will get a contract taking him through his age 32 season and then see if there is much dropoff. He isn't fast to begin with and the game keeps getting faster. He won't. I'd be leery of signing anyone past their age 32 or 33 season on a long term deal.

That is how you end up with the Seabrooks and Franzens of the world.

ellis to age 32 isn't smart. he was abysmal these past playoffs. ship him out.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Ellis was abysmal these past playoffs. But... that's only one small sample. I thought he was really good after he came back in the regular season. Also really good last year in the playoffs and the whole season before. The bottom line is that he's a good player. Even good players get in a rut for a dozen games, though. We shouldn't overreact to one little blip on the radar, that would be counterproductive.

I'd be happy to trade term for $$$ with him, I can see him being a "crafty" veteran even at 35, guys like Enstrom or Daley hang in there without becoming liabilites, Ellis can too. But as long as the $$$ isn't too extravagant and you don't have the NTC/NMCs in there, your risk is minimized because you'll have the best optics of anybody on whether a decline is imminent. Teams are always looking for D. Even "experienced" D. I wouldn't be afraid to stretch a deal for Ellis out to 34, 35 years old at an attractive cap hit. He's good now, and if he starts to fall off I think we're in a good position to be able to move him without it hampering our team too much.

 

[Armourboy]

Eh I'm not willing to say one bad playoffs is a reason to just completely drop Ellis, especially when his partner didnt do him any favors. The year before he had a pretty solid playoffs until the injury.

That said, based on his injury history and this past playoffs, if he is unwilling to sign to a team friendly contract then you ship him out. I like him, but he isnt so good you are willing to risk a bad contract on to keep. Ryan Suter he ain't.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Eh I'm not willing to say one bad playoffs is a reason to just completely drop Ellis, especially when his partner didnt do him any favors. The year before he had a pretty solid playoffs until the injury.

That said, based on his injury history and this past playoffs, if he is unwilling to sign to a team friendly contract then you ship him out. I like him, but he isnt so good you are willing to risk a bad contract on to keep. Ryan Suter he ain't.

I guess it comes down to the thresholds.

I don't want ANYBODY on a "bad contract".

I would like to see Ellis at $5M per, that would be pretty nice... but I suspect that number is a little low-ish unless it is traded off against a 6+ year term. So 6, even 7-years at $5M, it's "team friendly", but hopefully the term is also "Ellis friendly". If you could slide it down just a notch to $4.5M, then the full 8 years would also be acceptable for me.

Now, anything more than $6M per I just don't like at all. Turris at $6Mx6 is pretty top end for what I'd consider our second-tier players. Ellis is around the same age and impact as Turris I'd say. If $6Mx6 was the ONLY way... I'd be reluctant. It would feel a little steep. I'd have to go away and think about it.

Anything getting higher than $6M in salary, at just about any term really, that's into "bad contract" territory and I'd accept actively looking to move him.

And I would be hardline across the board on no NTC or NMC, regardless. Nobody else on the team needed one, Ellis can't hold out for one either, that's also a deal-breaker.

 

[Armourboy]

I guess it comes down to the thresholds.

I don't want ANYBODY on a "bad contract".

I would like to see Ellis at $5M per, that would be pretty nice... but I suspect that number is a little low-ish unless it is traded off against a 6+ year term. So 6, even 7-years at $5M, it's "team friendly", but hopefully the term is also "Ellis friendly". If you could slide it down just a notch to $4.5M, then the full 8 years would also be acceptable for me.

Now, anything more than $6M per I just don't like at all. Turris at $6Mx6 is pretty top end for what I'd consider our second-tier players. Ellis is around the same age and impact as Turris I'd say. If $6Mx6 was the ONLY way... I'd be reluctant. It would feel a little steep. I'd have to go away and think about it.

Anything getting higher than $6M in salary, at just about any term really, that's into "bad contract" territory and I'd accept actively looking to move him.

And I would be hardline across the board on no NTC or NMC, regardless. Nobody else on the team needed one, Ellis can't hold out for one either, that's also a deal-breaker.

Yeah I'd say we are about in the same line of thinking as far as numbers and term go.

As far as the NTC/NMC, the only way he or anyone else would get one of those out of me is if they are willing to sign for a deal that I could care less if they stink or not. We are talking 3 million a year or less territory on that deal which won't happen.

The last thing you can do in my mind is give him 5-6 million for 8 years and give him a NMC/NTC. I think the odds Poile would do that are very very low though.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Eh I'm not willing to say one bad playoffs is a reason to just completely drop Ellis, especially when his partner didnt do him any favors. The year before he had a pretty solid playoffs until the injury.

That said, based on his injury history and this past playoffs, if he is unwilling to sign to a team friendly contract then you ship him out. I like him, but he isnt so good you are willing to risk a bad contract on to keep. Ryan Suter he ain't.

It's better to ship out Ellis than to ship out Subban that's for sure.