Examining Vincent Lecavalier's potential/career and the Art Williams projections regarding him

[Crosby2010]

So in 1998 new Tampa Bay Lightning owner Art Williams was over the moon with their 1st overall selection in Vincent Lecavalier. The quotes he made have long been well known but here they are:

"He is the future Michael Jordan of hockey"
"In 3, 4, 5 years he is going to be the best player in the game"
"He's a Hall of Famer for sure"

Okay, so let's take it in context. Lecavalier was hugely hyped up. The best prospect since Lindros in 1991 for sure. Comparisons to Mario were premature, but this kid could play. Big at 6'4" could stick handle and he had a nasty streak at the time too. In all honesty there is a bit of defense I have with Williams on this one. Now look, Williams was not a hockey man. Great businessman for sure, but not a hockey man. So I think this so-called country bumpkin coming out and making these projections sort of made him the butt of the joke. However, he really only said one thing that was borderline crazy and it was the Michael Jordan comment.

Go back to 1998. Jordan just won his 6th championship with the Bulls. There was strong rumours he would retire but if people remember he didn't officially do it until early 1999. He actually was still an active player during the 1998-'99 players strike in the NBA and he was siding with the players. Once a deal was set and the NBA came back then he officially retired. So to say a player is going to have Jordan's impact was far off. Because that is lofty. But the rest wasn't wrong at all I don't think.

I think most of us figured he was a Hall of Famer someday, even at his peak he was certainly playing like one. So spot on there. Could he have been the best player in the game within 5 years? Why not? Three might be a stretch, that means he's the best player in the NHL by 2001. But by 2003 that is not a stretch. There was no reason he couldn't have been. The best player in the NHL in 2003 was Forsberg. Lecavalier could have eclipsed that by then, in fact he certainly had the potential to do so.

The problem with his career wasn't the Matt Cooke hit on him like many have mentioned. I think that is pointed as the reason for why he wasn't elite after 2008 since that was right at the end of the season, but I honestly don't think it was a dirty hit. Hard shoulder hit and Cooke was anticipating Lecavalier would get the puck, but that's it. I never thought it looked career altering. For me the issue was that he took so darn long to bust out. Rookie year, whatever. But 2nd year in 2000 he had 67 points and the idea was he was only getting better. 2001 a bit of a setback, and then a foolish holdout to start the 2001-'02 season. He's a longshot to be on the Canadian Olympic team but that and the lazy start he got off to sealed it. Plus a 37 point season in his 4th year isn't cutting it. Then 78 points in 2003 which made you think he was arriving. Dropped to 66 in 2004 but had a nice hand in the Cup win that spring. Got invited to Team Canada's World Cup team after Yzerman had to drop out and ends up being the MVP of the tournament, and scored the biggest goal, the overtime winner against the Czechs.

At this point I am thinking Lecavalier is going to start taking over the NHL after this. With the "New NHL" coming out I thought he'd be right at the top. But 2006 wasn't that kind of year, he had 75 points, less than even Vaclav Prospal on his own team. 2007 and 2008 were the years we finally expected out of him. And I know he never had those years after that as 2009 is how he basically played his way off of the 2010 Olympic team. But it took him 9 years to hit the potential we thought he would have, and by then Crosby and Ovechkin were running the NHL.

So I am not sure Williams' sentiments at the time were that far off as to what people were thinking about him. He was definitely expected to do a lot more and do it more often and a lot sooner. Maybe we are spoiled with the likes of Crosby, McDavid, Bedard, Ovechkin and even Malkin stepping in and dominating right away, but Lecavalier certainly did have that sort of ceiling. The sky was the limit.

Why do you think he didn't translate into greatness in the NHL? Was it just not being able to stick handle against the pros the same way he did against the juniors? Because he had so many tools in his arsenal, it wasn't just that.

Click to read more...

 

[Gorskyontario]

I would take Lecavalier over Joe Thornton easily.

 

[Brodeur]

Art Williams is the first to admit his limitations, one of which isn’t money.

When he said Vincent Lecavalier was going to be “the Michael Jordan of hockey,” he wasn’t slighting Wayne Gretzky or Maurice Richard or Gordie Howe or anyone else in the Hall of Fame.

“I didn’t know hockey,” says Williams, who was completing a $118-million deal to buy the Ice Palace and its chief tenant, the Lightning, when it made Lecavalier [luh-KAV-uhl-YAY] the No. 1 pick in the NHL entry draft in June.

“I’m a football coach and I knew a little bit about basketball, so I didn’t know who Gretzky was,” Williams says. “The press has a good time with me. I talk about the field and teeing it up and quarters. I haven’t gotten the terminology yet.”

Unfortunately for Williams that quote is probably the only thing anybody remembers him by. He admittedly didn't know much of anything about hockey and was unfairly hyping up his new toy. If anything, I think he was channeling his inner used car salesman and made the Jordan comparison to drum up ticket sales.

Edit: I'll use this an excuse to that the closest I ever got in a bar fight was over Lecavalier in 2007. Ran into a friend at a bar who was having post-game drinks with his beer league teammates. One guy had been overserved. At some point, we were all discussing the NHL playoffs and who we thought were going to win.

The drunk guy got in my face when I didn't have Tampa coming out of the East. He scoffed when I said Ottawa and that I was crazy for not picking Tampa because they had "veteran grit." I was taken aback and then informed the guy that Tampa had already been eliminated. He countered with "ARE YOU TELLING ME VINNY LECAVALIER ISN'T THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NHL?" to which I responded "I'm not entirely sure he's the best player on his own team." Guy turned beet red and got in my face, his teammates had to step in.

 

[Ishdul]

5 years isn't a crazy timeline for forwards. Plenty of superstar players are as good as they're ever going to be in their early 20's. Recently we've had Crosby and McDavid won MVPs in their 2nd season, Ovechkin and Lindros in their 3rd (or 4th year after being drafted).

It's questionable for Lecavalier who didn't quite dominate Juniors the way a few others have but that early 2000's seemed pretty open so who knows. His development was all over the place; he had a nightmarish 2002 (at age 21) followed by a really strong 2003. He looked like he was going to be a dominant player in 06/07 and was high up in the scoring race early in 07/08 with a dysfunctional team before falling off and never really recovering. Given his tools you'd probably expect a high end Hall of Famer. Michael Jordan of hockey was always a stretch and probably a line to sell tickets.

 

[MadLuke]

But in themselves they are not even that coherent, if he is the future Micheal Jordan of hockey you do not have to say he is a future HOF (would you have been serious and believed it, that was already more than included).

 

[Crosby2010]

Unfortunately for Williams that quote is probably the only thing anybody remembers him by. He admittedly didn't know much of anything about hockey and was unfairly hyping up his new toy. If anything, I think he was channeling his inner used car salesman and made the Jordan comparison to drum up ticket sales.

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Edit: I'll use this an excuse to that the closest I ever got in a bar fight was over Lecavalier in 2007. Ran into a friend at a bar who was having post-game drinks with his beer league teammates. One guy had been overserved. At some point, we were all discussing the NHL playoffs and who we thought were going to win.

The drunk guy got in my face when I didn't have Tampa coming out of the East. He scoffed when I said Ottawa and that I was crazy for not picking Tampa because they had "veteran grit." I was taken aback and then informed the guy that Tampa had already been eliminated. He countered with "ARE YOU TELLING ME VINNY LECAVALIER ISN'T THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NHL?" to which I responded "I'm not entirely sure he's the best player on his own team." Guy turned beet red and got in my face, his teammates had to step in.

I do remember that Draft Preview just like others with The Hockey News at that time. This is 1998, so you relied a lot more on the magazines and such for this stuff. So I read them a lot and I can remember the idea that Legwand was close to Lecavalier. Maybe I was biased and it was a Canadian vs. American thing, but I always thought it was crazy that Legwand was flirting being the #1 overall pick. Lecavalier had been trending this way a while, but Legwand sort of just bursted out that year. Here is another thing, look at those penalty minutes for Lecavalier - 117! It shows he got involved. It is funny how they said he is closer to Turgeon than Lemieux. Well, doesn't that apply to almost everyone? How many are close to Lemieux as a prospect? I can also remember as always with Canada at that time they underused him at the WJC. They always did this with draft eligible guys. Even Nathan MacKinnon was used treated like an orphaned child the year he was draft eligible. I can remember wanting them to use him more.

As for that drunk friend of yours, why on earth did he think Tampa was the beast of the east? They barely got into the playoffs in 2007 and it was a downhill battle for them after that.

 

[LightningStorm]

The start of his career was a brutal situation with how terrible the Bolts were and it being the dead puck era. But fortunately he had a breakthrough season along with the rest of the Bolts top players in 2003, leading up to their 2004 cup win.

There actually was a period in the 2007 calendar year where Lecavalier was considered by some to be the best in the world. In addition to his career year in 06/07, he also had a hot start to 07/08, but then around February that season a wrist injury slowed him down, which he was originally gonna have surgery on that offseason before the Cooke hit forced him to delay it so he could have his shoulder surgery first. After that he was never the same.

In some ways Lecavalier resembles what the career of Stamkos would've been without his 2018 resurgence. Both had a great peak season, Vinny in 2007 and Stammer in 2012, but injuries really derailed them. Through 2017 it was close for who's career was better, but Stamkos has pulled well ahead with his revival after that.

 

[GlitchMarner]

It took him a long time to hit his peak, but he was outstanding when he did finally hit it. Based on his talent level, maybe he should have had more of a MacKinnon-esque prime. He was kind of all over the place in his earlier years. He definitely displayed flashes or brilliance but wasn't a steady superstar level player.

Did he have a better NHL career than Brad Richards? I don't think it's clear-cut that he did despite the obviously superior peak.

 

[Terry Yake]

feels like he finally reached his peak in 06 only to fall victim to matt cooke a few years later

 

[Stephen]

Relative to the 1st overall pick in 1997, Joe Thornton, Lecavalier really underachieved relative to potential and expectations.

He kind of had an early sophomore breakout with 67 points in 1999-00 and looked like a flashier franchise center, but had a couple of step back seasons and a rough introduction to John Tortorella, then kind of won that 2004 Cup where the Lecavalier, Richards, Boyle, Kubina, Khabibulin team looked like it might be a team of the decade. Lockout and a salary cap later, Tampa was in the basement again but Lecavalier was having his mid career breakout. But just seemed like he had a 2 year peak between 2006 and 2008, then it was Matt Cooke and a lengthy decline.

Overall, the resume looks pretty solid, almost got to 1000 points, won a Stanley Cup. But seems like he should have had a career closer to a Thornton and Marleau. Should have been at the top longer, should have compiled more points. Should have had bigger impact years and made more of an impact on the game.

 

[CaptBrannigan]

There’s a little more to the post Matt Cooke hit than is listed here. Before that hit Vinny was going to have off-season surgery for a wrist issue, but that injury went unrepaired until the following offseason (and had some lasting negative effects the rest of the career), because the shoulder needed treatment instead. Why both couldn't be done at the same time I don't fully know, but the word we got at the time was that you couldn't properly rehab either one if the other was post-op as well.

As an aside, if this site randomly reloads on mobile and loses another comment mid-typing I'm going to Brashear the hell out of something.

edit: I see it's been mentioned

 

[MadLuke]

Relative to the 1st overall pick in 1997, Joe Thornton, Lecavalier really underachieved relative to potential and expectations.

A rare example of that era that make Lecalavier look like an underachiever.

From Sundin to Ovechkin, either low potential or underachieving in some ways (Fleury aged so well that he end making up for it too).

Did he have a better NHL career than Brad Richards?

It is close, 105m (Richards) vs 116m (Lecavalier in earning), 932 vs 949 pts, 105 vs 56 in the playoff is a big difference.

Both had that nice W-cup and bad Olympics tourney, both won the same cups, Richards has the 2015 and obviously the Smythe, while Lecavalier was for a flash moment in the conversation among the best player in the league in way Richards probably never was

Top 10:
Richards: 7-9-10
Lecavalier: 3-6

Richards could have had the better junior career (he was on the east of quebec phone book that year), memorial cup MVP as well:

1999-00

Rimouski Oceanic

QMJHL

63

71

115

186

69

80

12

13

24

37

16

 

[Hobnobs]

I think the biggest problem for Lecavalier was that he was jerked around a lot early in his career. Playing with different linemates week to week but still looking like a 1st line center. Then comes Torts, they strip him off the captaincy he responds poorly. Him and St Louis had good chemistry in 02 but Torts decided to punish him althroughout that season. I remember Tampa playing back to back vs Panthers. Lecavalier scored a goal in a loss and played very well. Next game he was benched vs Caps.

Once those two buried the hatchet and Lecavalier consistently was getting top-6 minutes with Fedotenko and MSL/Prospal he was playing up to his potential again.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Relative to the 1st overall pick in 1997, Joe Thornton, Lecavalier really underachieved relative to potential and expectations.

He kind of had an early sophomore breakout with 67 points in 1999-00 and looked like a flashier franchise center, but had a couple of step back seasons and a rough introduction to John Tortorella, then kind of won that 2004 Cup where the Lecavalier, Richards, Boyle, Kubina, Khabibulin team looked like it might be a team of the decade. Lockout and a salary cap later, Tampa was in the basement again but Lecavalier was having his mid career breakout. But just seemed like he had a 2 year peak between 2006 and 2008, then it was Matt Cooke and a lengthy decline.

Overall, the resume looks pretty solid, almost got to 1000 points, won a Stanley Cup. But seems like he should have had a career closer to a Thornton and Marleau. Should have been at the top longer, should have compiled more points. Should have had bigger impact years and made more of an impact on the game.

Lecavalier was much better then Thornton when it counted(playoffs).

 

[Brodeur]

As for that drunk friend of yours, why on earth did he think Tampa was the beast of the east? They barely got into the playoffs in 2007 and it was a downhill battle for them after that.

Yeah, that was the bizarre thing (aside from them already having been eliminated). He seemed to stress that Tampa had "veteran grit" which he seemed to insinuate that I couldn't understand. For years after that, I would name my Yahoo fantasy team "Veteran Grit" in that guy's honor.

But sometimes I have to remind myself that some folks like to talk (irrationally confidently) about sports but maybe are a few years behind the curve. I still give my cousin grief when he was outraged that the Chargers didn't bring back (a 39 year old) Antonio Gates in 2019. I think my cousin was still trapped in Madden 2009 and hadn't actually watched any games.

 

[MS]

The owner's comments really had nothing to do with anything and immediately were the butt of jokes the second they came out of his mouth.

Lecavalier was a #1 overall on the Taylor Hall/John Tavares tier - which is still well above the median - and his career was disappointing, but nobody took those comments remotely seriously.

 

[MadLuke]

but nobody took those comments remotely seriously.

I know young kids from Rimouski that did (and the local media)

 

[Stephen]

Lecavalier was much better then Thornton when it counted(playoffs).

Not really. Lecavalier had 2 playoff runs and won a cup on a Brad Richards Conn Smythe effort and was probably third fiddle behind him and Hart Trophy caliber Marty St. Louis. Thornton was a massive playoff underachiever but definitely had more reps as the San Jose Sharks go to guy than Vinny.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Lecavalier got out of the first round, what, three times in 17 years? Twice past the second round? It's always tough to defend Thornton's playoff resume...but Thornton's rate of production - particularly if you remove teenage and 40+ year old seasons - rivals or surpasses VL4's...and Thornton had more long runs and therefore likely faced tougher competition...

 

[Crosby2010]

The start of his career was a brutal situation with how terrible the Bolts were and it being the dead puck era. But fortunately he had a breakthrough season along with the rest of the Bolts top players in 2003, leading up to their 2004 cup win.

There actually was a period in the 2007 calendar year where Lecavalier was considered by some to be the best in the world. In addition to his career year in 06/07, he also had a hot start to 07/08, but then around February that season a wrist injury slowed him down, which he was originally gonna have surgery on that offseason before the Cooke hit forced him to delay it so he could have his shoulder surgery first. After that he was never the same.

In some ways Lecavalier resembles what the career of Stamkos would've been without his 2018 resurgence. Both had a great peak season, Vinny in 2007 and Stammer in 2012, but injuries really derailed them. Through 2017 it was close for who's career was better, but Stamkos has pulled well ahead with his revival after that.

Stamkos in his 2nd season won the Richard trophy. Then did it again in 2012. I think he hit the ground running a lot quicker than Lecavalier. Had a 60 goal season and finished 2nd in Hart voting. I think even before 2018 it was well established Stamkos is heading to the Hall of Fame. At around the same age is when we finally saw a brief clip of the best we would see of Lecavalier.

I honestly don't know why he didn't translated into a superstar. I am not sure anyone else knows either as I haven't read it on this thread. We can look at the Cooke hit, but that was 2008. Vinny had 10 seasons to show how good he was and he really only lived up to expectations twice.

 

[Gorskyontario]

Lecavalier got out of the first round, what, three times in 17 years? Twice past the second round? It's always tough to defend Thornton's playoff resume...but Thornton's rate of production - particularly if you remove teenage and 40+ year old seasons - rivals or surpasses VL4's...and Thornton had more long runs and therefore likely faced tougher competition...

I would take Lecavalier in 2011 over Thornton's entire career. Joe Thornton was pathetic in the playoffs.

 

[LightningStorm]

Stamkos in his 2nd season won the Richard trophy. Then did it again in 2012. I think he hit the ground running a lot quicker than Lecavalier. Had a 60 goal season and finished 2nd in Hart voting. I think even before 2018 it was well established Stamkos is heading to the Hall of Fame. At around the same age is when we finally saw a brief clip of the best we would see of Lecavalier.

I honestly don't know why he didn't translated into a superstar. I am not sure anyone else knows either as I haven't read it on this thread. We can look at the Cooke hit, but that was 2008. Vinny had 10 seasons to show how good he was and he really only lived up to expectations twice.

Funny, I recall this thread a month before the 17/18 began, and Stamkos was who I chose, for similar reasons that you listed, such as hitting his stride much sooner, though Stammer did have MSL earlier in his career than Vinny. Here's how I thought they compared at the time, and what I thought of the comparison in terms of Stammer's trajectory:

I'd give the edge to Stammer. His early career blows Vinny's outta the water, though you do have to factor in Stammer having Marty. Though by now, Stammer is the age Vinny was after his peak season, so even if his 36 goal season in 2016 (worst full season of his outside his rookie year) is a standard season for him, it will still be better than Vinny from his late 20's on. I do agree with others that say that Vinny's 2007 season was better than Stammer's 2012 season though. While Stammer scored 8 more goals due to his superior sniping arsenal, Vinny brought more to the table with his greater puckhandling, playmaking, and physicality.

As a lightning fan its unfortunate what injuries have done to them. One thing that made me angry about Vinny's shoulder injury suffered from Matt Cooke was he shouldn't have even been playing in that game. He had a bad wrist that would require surgery, and we should've shut him down since this was the last week of the season and we were towards the bottom of the rankings (we'd win the lottery this year and draft Stammer). But despite all this, we keep him in the lineup, then he suffers his shoulder injury, which also required surgery. As a result he ended up not having the wrist surgery he needed that offseason so he wouldn't have to rehab both at once, and ended up playing the 2009 season with a bad wrist. After all this he was never the same player. With basically this whole season of rest I'm hoping Stammer can avoid Vinny's fate after his string of injuries.

Looking back, even though Stamkos was about to have a revival starting in 17/18 beyond my most optimistic hope, I still thought he'd be good enough to pass Lecavalier career wise, more or less for the same reasons you mentioned. The HHOF was still within reach for Stamkos then, while Lecavalier still had a bit of an uphill climb even after his peak.

 

[Hobnobs]

Not really. Lecavalier had 2 playoff runs and won a cup on a Brad Richards Conn Smythe effort and was probably third fiddle behind him and Hart Trophy caliber Marty St. Louis. Thornton was a massive playoff underachiever but definitely had more reps as the San Jose Sharks go to guy than Vinny.

Not sure why two players being better than him makes him less of a go to guy or a worse playoff performer? Not even sure why more failed reps makes Thornton better than Vinny?

 

[sr edler]

I wouldn't classify an owner pumping his own young star player's tires as a projection, more like an attempt at a hype job or just excitement.

 

[Gorskyontario]

@Stephen

I would also take MSL and Brad Richards over Joe Thornton in the playoffs.

@Crosby2010 If you got a notification for this post, I quoted you by mistake when I meant to quote Stephen. Sorry about that .