Evaluating the Post-Deadline "Reset"

[oljimmy]

We've all heard the "reset" idea from the Oilers' coach: they're hoping to look at how the team does after the trade pressure was taken off and the new acquisitions have been able to chip in. I checked the stats and while not much has changed since Mar 1, I noticed something interesting. There have been two notable changes.

From the start of the season until Feb 29, the Oilers:

- Were 23rd overall in ES scoring chance differential (-72, or 47.2%)
- Were 28th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (-96 or 45.9%)

In the 12 games since the deadline, the Oilers are:

- 8th overall in ES scoring chance differential (+28, 52.3%)
- 6th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (+20, 53.8%)

12 games is a decent sample size, and basically the story is that in those games the Oilers have morphed from a terrible into a very good (almost elite) chance-generating team.

The problem? They've gone from decent to horrific in all the shooting metrics. Since the deadline, their ES shooting percentage is 5.4 (29th) , before the deadline it was 7.4 (16th). The inability to finish plays since the deadline has ensured that their newly generated chances aren't winning them games.

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[McDeathbyCheerios*]

We've all heard the "reset" idea from the Oilers' coach: they're hoping to look at how the team does after the trade pressure was taken off and the new acquisitions have been able to chip in. I checked the stats and while not much has changed since Mar 1, I noticed something interesting. There have been two notable changes.

From the start of the season until Feb 29, the Oilers:

- Were 23rd overall in ES scoring chance differential (-72, or 47.2%)
- Were 28th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (-96 or 45.9%)

In the 12 games since the deadline, the Oilers are:

- 8th overall in ES scoring chance differential (+28, 52.3%)
- 6th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (+20, 53.8%)

12 games is a decent sample size, and basically the story is that in those games the Oilers have morphed from a terrible into a very good (almost elite) chance-generating team.

The problem? They've gone from decent to horrific in all the shooting metrics. Since the deadline, their ES shooting percentage is 5.4 (29th) , before the deadline it was 7.4 (16th). The inability to finish plays since the deadline has ensured that their newly generated chances aren't winning them games.

Them getting a lot of chances that just go wide and stuff to me shows they have a low confidence levek. However getting that many chances is always a great sign.

 

[Arpeggio]

I think they've actually played very well over the last stretch of games, they just can't score.

Last night's game was one of the more frustrating games I've ever watched, they should've destroyed Arizona. Hall must have had 4-5 five star chances that he either shot into Smith's chest or wide of the net. McDavid should've had at least one as well. So frustrating.

 

[oljimmy]

I think they've actually played very well over the last stretch of games, they just can't score.

Last night's game was one of the more frustrating games I've ever watched, they should've destroyed Arizona. Hall must have had 4-5 five star chances that he either shot into Smith's chest or wide of the net. McDavid should've had at least one as well. So frustrating.

Exactly. Two goalpoasts, no puck luck, bad shooting. As soon as they make progress on one problem another one cripples them.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

Exactly. Two goalpoasts, no puck luck, bad shooting. As soon as they make progress on one problem another one cripples them.

Honestly i rather the team be doing what they are and create a lot of chances and chaos but be snake bitten goal wise then play like crap but score on all their chances

 

[Beerfish]

After 10 years of being not only put of the playoffs but dead last or near dead last the one and only metric that means a thing is wins, losses and points in relation to the rest of the league.

One year the oilers have a good pp and pk but are a disaster 5 on 5

The next year they are good 5 on 5 but are terrible in specials.

The next year they are unlucky becasue they generate chances but have a poor shooting %

The next year their shooting % is fine but they can't generate chances.

There is no meaningful reset when shuffling around bottom pair Dmen and 3rd and 4th line forwards. The Oilers have lived of this change for years.

The only true 'reset' will come after the draft and FA if the oilers have made a few MAJOR changes to the team dynamic.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

After 10 years of being not only put of the playoffs but dead last or near dead last the one and only metric that means a thing is wins, losses and points in relation to the rest of the league.

One year the oilers have a good pp and pk but are a disaster 5 on 5

The next year they are good 5 on 5 but are terrible in specials.

The next year they are unlucky becasue they generate chances but have a poor shooting %

The next year their shooting % is fine but they can't generate chances.

There is no meaningful reset when shuffling around bottom pair Dmen and 3rd and 4th line forwards. The Oilers have lived of this change for years.

The only true 'reset' will come after the draft and FA if the oilers have made a few MAJOR changes to the team dynamic.

Can we stop with this kind of stuff in every thread?

This thread is about their play since the "reset".

 

[Cawz]

We've all heard the "reset" idea from the Oilers' coach: they're hoping to look at how the team does after the trade pressure was taken off and the new acquisitions have been able to chip in. I checked the stats and while not much has changed since Mar 1, I noticed something interesting. There have been two notable changes.

From the start of the season until Feb 29, the Oilers:

- Were 23rd overall in ES scoring chance differential (-72, or 47.2%)
- Were 28th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (-96 or 45.9%)

In the 12 games since the deadline, the Oilers are:

- 8th overall in ES scoring chance differential (+28, 52.3%)
- 6th overall in ES high-danger scoring chance differential (+20, 53.8%)

12 games is a decent sample size, and basically the story is that in those games the Oilers have morphed from a terrible into a very good (almost elite) chance-generating team.

The problem? They've gone from decent to horrific in all the shooting metrics. Since the deadline, their ES shooting percentage is 5.4 (29th) , before the deadline it was 7.4 (16th). The inability to finish plays since the deadline has ensured that their newly generated chances aren't winning them games.

Interesting analysis. Hopefully something to build on for next year.

 

[Beerfish]

Can we stop with this kind of stuff in every thread?

This thread is about their play since the "reset".

What reset? Getting rid of Schultz and purcell and getting maroon and pardy is a reset? The oilers and some fans toss that word around like it is going out of style. It's used pretty well every year around here.

New coach? Reset. New GM? reset? Get rid of a few lower end guys and get new lower end guys? reset.

 

[oljimmy]

Honestly i rather the team be doing what they are and create a lot of chances and chaos but be snake bitten goal wise then play like crap but score on all their chances

I agree. The stats show that this is exactly what was happening during the winning streak in December. We were getting massively out-chanced but coming away with tight victories because we capitalized on the few chances we got.

Dec 2-14th, 6 straight wins, 26th in danger chances, 29th in regular chances. 3rd in shooting percentage (11.1%). Crazy.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

What reset? Getting rid of Schultz and purcell and getting maroon and pardy is a reset? The oilers and some fans toss that word around like it is going out of style. It's used pretty well every year around here.

New coach? Reset. New GM? reset? Get rid of a few lower end guys and get new lower end guys? reset.

Theyre referring to Mclellan addressing the team at the deadline and telling them to reset. All their stats, and team record from the past are gone. "Focus on today to the end" kind of thing.

 

[Cawz]

What reset? Getting rid of Schultz and purcell and getting maroon and pardy is a reset?

Getting rid of Schultz is pretty big re-set. He was 2nd in ice time as a rookie and led in ice time the following seasons. They finally admitted that the cornerstone of the defence isnt a very good cornerstone.

 

[Willis]

Getting rid of Schultz is pretty big re-set. He was 2nd in ice time as a rookie and led in ice time the following seasons. They finally admitted that the cornerstone of the defence isnt a very good cornerstone.

I am still mad that all we got for a "Norris Caliber" defenseman was a lowly draft pick.

 

[Beerfish]

Getting rid of Schultz is pretty big re-set. He was 2nd in ice time as a rookie and led in ice time the following seasons. They finally admitted that the cornerstone of the defence isnt a very good cornerstone.

As I said, everything is a 'reset' around here. Schultz leaving has done little to this team results wise, other than show, as usual there was a player there that this team, coaches, front office could't get anything out of.

 

[Cawz]

As I said, everything is a 'reset' around here.

And? They got a new coach, new GM, new goalie and new franchise forward, all this year. They just got rid of their corner-stone on d and we'll see what happens this summer to change the back end. So I'm not sure what youre point is...?

 

[Cawz]

I am still mad that all we got for a "Norris Caliber" defenseman was a lowly draft pick.

At least we got him for nothing. All we spent was lost seasons trying to build around him on d.

 

[McShiva]

The team is playing better. You could see the improvement as time goes on, and despite the fact they are very inconsistent, when they do play the way the coach wants them too, it's a pretty decent team even with all the injuries.

The biggest thing is it shows in the point totals. All those injuries, substandard play by certain players, some questionable line combos by the coach sometimes, bad reffing, and the lack of discipline and game readiness add up. Still not close to a playoff team, but you can see the step forward, and some players have really stepped up.

A big hand to Chia for finally doing what we as fans have been screaming this team needed for years, and that's add some size and "heaviness" to the team. If the team continues to play more like this, actually show up for 60 minutes (* cough The Sharks game*) or at least when they bounce back after a bad period (* cough The Sharks game*) I can't help but think this team has a great shot at 40 wins next year at least.

Get to work Chia and fix those holes this summer.

 

[McJadeddog]

Getting rid of Schultz is pretty big re-set. He was 2nd in ice time as a rookie and led in ice time the following seasons. They finally admitted that the cornerstone of the defence isnt a very good cornerstone.

its really shocking how much better our defence has been without schultz gifting the other team *at least* one goal every single freaking game... even i, likely the biggest critic of schultz on these boards, was surprised how much better we looked as soon as he was gone

if we actually had a healthy defence, with klefbom and davidson, we'd look even better.... schultz was a boat-anchor for the entire freaking team... simply ridiculous, almost to level of being unbelievable, how much schultz hurt his team game in and game out

 

[Spawn]

its really shocking how much better our defence has been without schultz gifting the other team *at least* one goal every single freaking game... even i, likely the biggest critic of schultz on these boards, was surprised how much better we looked as soon as he was gone

if we actually had a healthy defence, with klefbom and davidson, we'd look even better.... schultz was a boat-anchor for the entire freaking team... simply ridiculous, almost to level of being unbelievable, how much schultz hurt his team game in and game out

Seems to be doing just fine playing 15 minutes a night on a bottom pairing like he should be in pittsburgh. +5 in 9 games, hasn't been a minus player in any of those games.

For the Oiler's I don't put much stock in what happens to end the year. They've finished seasons strong before. Never matters, they still end up sucking come next season. The scariest thing would be if a good final 18 games tricks chiarelli and McLellan into thinking they don't need 2 top 4 dmen and some changes at forward.

 

[Juxta Position]

Seems to be doing just fine playing 15 minutes a night on a bottom pairing like he should be in pittsburgh. +5 in 9 games, hasn't been a minus player in any of those games.

For the Oiler's I don't put much stock in what happens to end the year. They've finished seasons strong before. Never matters, they still end up sucking come next season. The scariest thing would be if a good final 18 games tricks chiarelli and McLellan into thinking they don't need 2 top 4 dmen and some changes at forward.

i would like to think chiarelli is smart enough to realize that one decent streak of hockey at the end of the year doesn't mean that the team is "fixed". im pretty sure no matter how the oilers finish the year he is very well aware of what needs to be addressed come the offseason. well i would hope anyway.

 

[TheRebuild]

its really shocking how much better our defence has been without schultz gifting the other team *at least* one goal every single freaking game... even i, likely the biggest critic of schultz on these boards, was surprised how much better we looked as soon as he was gone

if we actually had a healthy defence, with klefbom and davidson, we'd look even better.... schultz was a boat-anchor for the entire freaking team... simply ridiculous, almost to level of being unbelievable, how much schultz hurt his team game in and game out

It's funny that he's actually been ok in Pittsburgh. Honestly, I think that puke was purposely playing horribly to force a trade.

 

[yukoner88]

It's funny that he's actually been ok in Pittsburgh. Honestly, I think that puke was purposely playing horribly to force a trade.

it shows that Schultz was simply playing in way over his head. Previous management should've made sure Schultz was on the 3rd pairing with limited minutes and some time on the PP. Instead he was force fed top 4 or top 2 minutes almost instantly.

The Pens are simply playing Schultz to his strength, it is not any more complicated then that.

 

[Spawn]

It's funny that he's actually been ok in Pittsburgh. Honestly, I think that puke was purposely playing horribly to force a trade.

Or, infinitely more likely, he had zero confidence here, and was being played 21 minutes a night here instead of the 15 he's been playing in Pittsburgh, a number he should have been playing from day one in Edmonton, but never did here.

 

[McFlyingV]

Who cares? Schultz is still what he's always been. A good skating, decent passing, poor decision making Dman who is allergic to hard work and physical play. Him fitting into a 3rd pairing role on a playoff team doesn't change that, there are plenty of garbage D who play bottom pair on playoff teams because of the salary cap and fit in fine because they have top pairings eating up almost half the game vs top competition for them.

 

[Fourier]

Or, infinitely more likely, he had zero confidence here, and was being played 21 minutes a night here instead of the 15 he's been playing in Pittsburgh, a number he should have been playing from day one in Edmonton, but never did here.

I think what your saying is right. He had 0 confidence. But it is also true that fro a good part of this year his play was killing the team.

As McJadded dog said he was making critical mistakes that resulted in GA's at quite the rate. For a team that has been in so many one goal games this may well have been fairly significant in terms of wins and losses. Not enough so that we are talking a playoff team. But maybe the difference between finishing with 70-74 points and 80 points.