Evaluating Poile and his draft history

[FEARoN]

Sure you can. He mostly knows how to draft safe, two-way players. He still struggles to draft the offensive talent we need to win in the playoffs.

People can throw out the normal things (draft position, number of offensive players in a draft) but for whatever reason, Poile struggles to land them. How many good centers (what you need in the playoffs) have we drafted? Top line center? We've had the same needs for years and we keep coming back to them.

He's no doubt landed some solid defensemen and some pretty serviceable forwards but has yet to draft that talent we need on the offensive side, specifically centers.

That has been how I felt about draft day for years. I see other teams picking guys year after year that appear to have more offensive potential, then we select a "safe", two-way type. Felt like every year, the commentators even made comments about our picks being defensively responsible and how that player will fit in well with our system. Part of that problem was coaching and developing offensive talent.

But after looking at his first round history (only because that's typically where the best talent is), I can't really bash him for never landing the 1C or superstar forward. He doesn't know who will pan out and who won't when he walks to the stage and even with hindsight there aren't many sure fire forwards he's missed on. I don't like the safe picks. Give me a guy with world beating skills and no defense. We can't teach defensive responsibility and at least we could complain about no defense instead of no scoring for a change.

 

[Drake744]

That has been how I felt about draft day for years. I see other teams picking guys year after year that appear to have more offensive potential, then we select a "safe", two-way type. Felt like every year, the commentators even made comments about our picks being defensively responsible and how that player will fit in well with our system. Part of that problem was coaching and developing offensive talent.

Some of that may have had to do with him trying to get guys who fit Trotz's system. It'll be interesting what kind of guy we draft in the first round to fit Lavy's.

Oh wait.

But in all seriousness our first pick under Lavy's leadership was Fiala and that might be because of coaching.

 

[FEARoN]

Some of that may have had to do with him trying to get guys who fit Trotz's system. It'll be interesting what kind of guy we draft in the first round to fit Lavy's.

Oh wait.

But in all seriousness our first pick under Lavy's leadership was Fiala and that might be because of coaching.

Good point. Wonder if we're not going to make a splash for offense this off season if Poile will attempt to get a first back.

 

[braindead]

Let's not forget this was during the brief period between Vokoun and Rinne as starter, drafting Pickard with a second of two first rounders was a no brainer at the time.

I disagree and the Pickard pick is probably the only one that I really, really knew I hated at the time. I was obsessed with the draft at that point and couldn't believe the pick. We should have learned our lesson from Brian Finley (as compared to how we have found every other goalie)... drafting goalies in the 1st round has not proven to be a generally good bet.

Eberle was the obvious choice, expected to go earlier but fell (I think) because he was small.

 

[Filip Forceberg]

Good point. Wonder if we're not going to make a splash for offense this off season if Poile will attempt to get a first back.

I can't see us getting back into the first round, as that would require trading a roster player and a good one at that.

 

[Dave is a killer]

I can't see us getting back into the first round, as that would require trading a roster player and a good one at that.

Do you think Smith could get us into the 1st ?

 

[Armourboy]

Do you think Smith could get us into the 1st ?

Poile isn't going to trade Smith, at least not for a draft pick. He knows what he has with Smith, and while he's not the second coming of The Great One, he has had back to back seasons in the mid 20's in goals.

Trading a solid good commodity to chase an unproven one will get you in trouble quick, unless you can just get that guy you know is going to be good ( in which case Smith won't get him anyways).

 

[Filip Forceberg]

Do you think Smith could get us into the 1st ?

I don't know how that would help us.

 

[codeman00]

I don't know how that would help us.

Plus, I don't think Smith has come close to hitting his ceiling yet.

 

[Dave is a killer]

Plus, I don't think Smith has come close to hitting his ceiling yet.

He actually has plateaued...

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

I'm going to be doing a deep statistical analysis of the draft for about six weeks this summer, so I'll bump this when I can answer the question using data and such.

 

[RCola88]

He actually has plateaued...

and what evidence do you have to support that? Players can improve at any part of their career.

 

[thecloser]

Craig Smith is an RFA this summer

No team will trade their 1st for his rights i don't think. I don't see us getting back into the 1st.

Silly trade in hindsight and now we have to live with being out of the playoffs after the 1st round AGAIN and try to make a move during free agency (i.e trade)

 

[apadilla]

Hi all. Would anyone be interested in a Mock draft that is being formed? The Predators are one team that still needs a GM. The Mock draft is 7 rounds, like the upcoming 2015 draft. If you can be interested, visit link:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1888197

 

[deanwormer]

Some of that may have had to do with him trying to get guys who fit Trotz's system. It'll be interesting what kind of guy we draft in the first round to fit Lavy's.
.

This is, at best, a mis-characterization; personally, I say it's a load of crap. Everyone (ok, almost everyone) said Ovie would suck under Trotz, and he bounced back to a 50 goal scorer after a couple seasons in the 30s , as just one example. There are several of guys on that roster that don't fit the "trotz system" (the safe 2way players). He's a defensive minded coach, but he adjusts just fine when he is given offensive talent - See PK, or JP, or Arnie, or Sully - and tell me when they had their best years? Tell me how the Preds compared to the league when we had them?

It was Poile, plain and simple - he drafted the players, he made the trades. Not saying he didn't consult Trotz or whatever, but if you have watched this team for just the last 10 years you'd see the adjustments Trotz makes given the players he has. Poile does a great job squeezing a nickle's worth of talent outta' 2 cents, but we don't have the kinda' players you think we're gonna' get for "Lavy's system" because GMDP drafted them. Maybe he'll draft differently, maybe not - we'll see - but if there was a "system" in Nashville it was, and still is, David Poile's approach to building from the net out, relying on 2way dmen to ignite the O.

 

[Lateralous]

I don't follow the Predators as close as all of you as they are a distant second favorite to the Devils for me but after reading through this, I really think you guys have nothing to complain about. Obviously you can nitpick specific picks but taking the body of work as a whole from 2003 on, you guys are pulling impact players ranging from superstars to solid role players from all rounds of the draft. I mean really, has anyone else in the league come close to drafting 4 players the quality of Weber, Rinne, Josi and Suter without the benefit of a top 5 pick during the same timespan? Off the top of my head, maybe the Flyers and Ducks who also both hit big on two players in 2003 and have landed Giroux and Fowler respectively since then but there's not many. Never mind all the other good players you've drafted and developed. Sure a few of Poiles deadline deals have been head scratchers but he more than made up for it with the Forsberg deal.

I look at NJ as a good comparable to Nashville because we've dealt with a lot of the same BS from typical "small" market issues, losing players to free agency, ownership issues causing us to lose players and even to Russian forwards defecting, but in the Devils case it's been spread out over a longer period of time. I would say Poile grades out a lot closer to the 90s version of Lou Lams than the 2004 onward version. Basically, you guys need to get lucky with one pick like the Devils did with Elias after having Stevens, Brodeur and Nijedermayer and a good group of forwards in place and you're right there. Before anyone points out that the Devils HOF back end is better, the current salary capped league also doesn't have any 90s versions of the Avalanche and Red Wings to compete with either.

Edit: just so we're clear, I'm not saying Poile is anywhere near the GM that LL was earlier in his career, which would be unfair, but there are a lot of similarities in the way the team has been built from the back out with good drafting and shrewd trades. People forget that the devils didn't make it out of the 2nd round from '96 to '99 mostly due to a lack of offense in the postseason led by Bobby Holik. There was constantly *****ing in NJ that Lou wasn't able to build a proper offense to compliment the back line and we had some failed deadline deals like Gilmour too. It wasn't until the emergence of the A-line and Gomez that NJ really turned into a juggernaut.