Evaluating Poile and his draft history

[FEARoN]

The sting of losing is still upon us all, but the excitment for next year has already started for me as I missed the entire season minus the playoffs. I've had lots of discussions with friends on where we should go from here and how to better the team for next season. The draft is right around the corner, but instead of dreaming about Poile getting us a first back, I decided to look into what he has done with our previous FR picks. Our philosophy has nearly always been BPA, but has he always picked the BPA? At one time, it seemed we were really focused on building from the net out. This plan has made us competive, but many would argue not very exciting. Trotz was very much defense first. We all complain about needing/ wanting the ever elusive 1C or superstar forward. I was curious to see if there have ever been any available for us at the draft. It seems so easy to blame Poile for not getting us either of those, but what I found is, it is easier said than done.

I went back from the 2005 NHL Entry Draft listed our first round pick and any other FORWARDS of note after our pick. I listed stats on some players and why they stood out to me. Not saying they should have been who we selected, but merely stating they were still on the board at the time we picked. Some of you will know a lot more about why we picked this guy over that guy or who has done better then the names I mentioned as note worthy. I would love to hear any additional analysis or who you would rather have chosen. So here we go.

2005
D) Ryan Parent- Picked 18th (Has played a total of 106 NHL games between PHI and VAN and has been in the AHL the past four seasons) Was traded with Scotty Upshall and 2006 1st Round pick for Peter Forsberg

Left on the board
RW) Niklas Bergfors picked 23rd by New Jersey
C) T.J. Oshie picked 24th by St. Louis
LW) James Neal picked 33 by Dallas
C) Paul Statsny picked 44th by Colorado

I'd take any of those four over the Forsberg rental

2006
No 1st Round pick (Don't remember why)

2007
D) Jonathan Blum picked 23rd (Only played 15 NHL games since leaving Nashville)

Left on the board
C) Mikael Backlund picked 24th by Calgary
LW) David Perron picked 26th by St. Louis

2008
C) Colin Wilson picked 7th

LW) Mikkel Boedker picked 8th by PHX

I'm satisfied with our pick, but then this happens.

G) Chet Pickard picked 18th

RW) Jordan Eberle picked 22nd by EDM (120 G, 164 A, 284 Pts in 356 Games in the NHL)
C) Tyler Ennis picked 26th (Has had three 20 goal seasons and two seasons he was on pace for 20 if he played the whole year)

Why in the world did JE14 not get the call by us? Huge miss by Poile.

2009
D) Ryan Ellis picked 11th

I'm for the most part pleased with the pick. ROR went early in the second, but I don't know why we would gamble on him at #11.

C) Ryan O’Reilly picked 33rd by COL


2010
RW) Austin Watson picked 18th (Three 20 goal seasons in AHL)

C) Nick Bjugstad picked 19th by FLA (16 goals in first full season and 24 goals/ 19 assists this year)

Not sure on this one yet, but Bjugstad appears to be doing well, while Watson is still playing in the minors.

2011
No First Round Pick (Pick was traded to Ottawa for Mike Fisher. 21st Overall pick)

2012
No First Round Pick (Pick used to acquire Paul Gaustad)

2013
D) Seth Jones picked 4th

C) Elias Lindholm picked 5th by Carolina (17 Goals/ 22 A this season)
C) Sean Monohan picked 6th by Calgary (22 Goals in first NHL season)

Most controvesey here. I'd stick with the Jones pick, but either of the other two could arguably be the Center we've been hoping for.

2014
LW) Kevin Fiala picked 11th overall

Too soon to tell, but most seem to like the pick. I don't know any of the other players selected last year.

The biggest eye opener for me was how few names stood out after our picks. And again, I was only looking for fowards we missed out on in which to bash Poile about. Really only two drafts that I felt he dropped the ball. What I now believe is, unless your picking top 5 or get extremely lucky, good luck finding any franchise forwards. Doesn't feel like Poile's drafting is necessarily the problem to me anymore. Sure you may miss a guy here and there, but with the gift of hindsight, he's done a failry decent job, IMO. Thoughts?

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[PredsV82]

according to accepted Preds message board dogma, it wouldnt have mattered if Poile had drafted Eberle or any other offensivelyskilled forward, Trotz would have squashed the scoring right out of them and made them a grinder...

 

[Dave is a killer]

according to accepted Preds message board dogma, it wouldnt have mattered if Poile had drafted Eberle or any other offensivelyskilled forward, Trotz would have squashed the scoring right out of them and made them a grinder...

I couldn't care less what he does at the draft ... his 8-24 playoff record (when his teams make the playoffs) & lets not kid ourselves, this is his team after all should be enough to have him out of a job, imho

 

[kakemono]

Hindsight at its finest.

You can't just pick a team made up of players drafted lower that your draft picks. Why the break at 2005? Because we had good picks in 2003 and 2004? Take ANY team's 1st round picks for the last 10 years and then look at the next 10 picks and you can make an all-star from it.


I agree with Joe T Choker's sentiment though.

 

[FEARoN]

according to accepted Preds message board dogma, it wouldnt have mattered if Poile had drafted Eberle or any other offensivelyskilled forward, Trotz would have squashed the scoring right out of them and made them a grinder...

I remeber the feeling that it didn't matter who we brought in, Trotz would have benched them or buried them on the 4th until they forgot how to score. I get what you are saying, looking back at who we picked for the team then versus now is pointless in a way. Who knows how they would have developed under our staff. For me though, it was interesting to see that even though he picked some that busted, there haven't been too many obviosuly more successful players that came after our picks.

Having a coach who diminishes offensive potential doesn't excuse the couple bad misses Poile made for scoring talent though. Those have been my two biggest beefs with this organization. Keeping Trotz around too long and never finding/ developing any top end forward talent.

 

[FEARoN]

I couldn't care less what he does at the draft ... his 8-24 playoff record (when his teams make the playoffs) & lets not kid ourselves, this is his team after all should be enough to have him out of a job, imho

Who would you bring in as his replacement? I'm not arguing, just wondering who you want over him.

In my other response to V82, I mentioned keeping Trotz around too long. I never felt like he would get us to the next level, in part because of his defense only mentallity. I think that was the first of correct steps to have taken. Maybe it is time for DP to go, but who will come and who can arguably do better?

 

[Armourboy]

2006 that we didn't have a pick was a glaring year, so many of those players are now playing in the NHL.

2010 you also have Kevin Hayes ( now with the Rangers) who had a heck of a season, and Kuznetsov with Washington, both who have been better than Watson.

2011 we definitely got the better end of that deal with Fisher.

2012 the Gaustad year we give Poile heck about, but when you look at the list the only decent forward out of the bunch so far where that pick was made is Tomas Hertl.


There haven't been any huge misses per say, but you could just as easily make the argument that some of those trades kept us from making better deals elsewhere.

Really is interesting though when you go back and look. As much as we give him crap about not drafting a 1C, just how few you had a realistic chance to get in the first place.

 

[Dave is a killer]

Who would you bring in as his replacement? I'm not arguing, just wondering who you want over him.

In my other response to V82, I mentioned keeping Trotz around too long. I never felt like he would get us to the next level, in part because of his defense only mentallity. I think that was the first of correct steps to have taken. Maybe it is time for DP to go, but who will come and who can arguably do better?

It doesn't matter, my guy is off the board in Edmonton & they will more than likely go internally.

 

[PredsV82]

It doesn't matter, my guy is off the board in Edmonton & they will more than likely go internally.

if you think Poile gets fired this summer youre delusional.

 

[Soundgarden]

Look back at 2008 draft, at the time Wilson was rated 10 by the NHL central scouting bureau, Pickard was ranked 2nd for NA goalies and Josi was ranked 6th for Europeans. That's excellent drafting for any team even if one of the three doesn't turn out well you can't really blame that on our choices.

They all went pretty much where they were expected to go and Pickard was rated a lot higher than Josi at the time, I gaurentee that if we switched Josi and Pickard at the draft everybody here would call for Poile's head the second he said Roman's name.

Let's not forget this was during the brief period between Vokoun and Rinne as starter, drafting Pickard with a second of two first rounders was a no brainer at the time.

 

[FEARoN]

Look back at 2008 draft, at the time Wilson was rated 10 by the NHL central scouting bureau, Pickard was ranked 2nd for NA goalies and Josi was ranked 6th for Europeans. That's excellent drafting for any team even if one of the three doesn't turn out well you can't really blame that on our choices.

Let's not forget this was during the brief period between Vokoun and Rinne as starter, drafting Pickard with a second of two first rounders was a no brainer at the time.

Excellent point. Forgot where we were on goaltenders during that draft.

 

[gopreds19]

But hornqvist, rinne, and erat say the sunshine pumpers.

Edit: isn't the reason why we didn't have a 2006 1st because of Brendan Whitt?

So Brendan effing Whitt, Paul Gaustad, and Santo-Franson. Those losers are worth 1st rounders?


Don't get me started on Pickard.

And if you really want to see an embarrassment, check out Poile's record with 2nd picks. Weber, Klein, and a pile of hot garbage.

 

[Armourboy]

But hornqvist, rinne, and erat say the sunshine pumpers.

Edit: isn't the reason why we didn't have a 2006 1st because of Brendan Whitt?

So Brendan effing Whitt, Paul Gaustad, and Santo-Franson. Those losers are worth 1st rounders?


Don't get me started on Pickard.

And if you really want to see an embarrassment, check out Poile's record with 2nd picks. Weber, Klein, and a pile of hot garbage.

See Gaustad I don't mind, especially when you actually look at the draft class and what they have done so far. At least he plays hard and provides something ( faceoffs, PK, and a bit of toughness, all 3 things this team needs). His contract on the other hand is a different matter entirely.

 

[101st_fan]

Drafts are a crapshoot that tend to hold close to the central scouting rankings.

There are Preds fans still griping about the Legwand pick in 98 ... never mind that the next six forwards selected did not perform as well ... all of whom were the logical succession (at the time) to Legwand in the draft order. Hindsight allows people to try to use picks made 10, 20, or more selections later as shown in this thread using ROR as a comparative to the Ryan Ellis pick ... the real options then were De Haan or Kulikov if the Preds picked a defender and Kassian or Peter Holland if the team went for a forward.

 

[jwhouk]

And yet, everyone conveniently forgets that GMDP pulled off arguably two of the biggest late-round steals of the draft in Hornqvist and some guy named Karlis.

Look: I keep track of stuff like this. I have that whole thread over in the analysis subforum about Draft Value. Here's the lowdown: in only 17 drafts, the Preds are averaging 1.0146 ADV per draft. That might not sound like much, until you realize that only four other teams have a better per-draft ADV (Buffalo, Ottawa, San Jose and Colorado).

And the draft year that everyone and their brother raves about, about how much sheer talent there was in the 2003 draft? Nashville got a pretty darn good 2.3767 ADV. That was the 13th best single team draft in the last 25 years.

You can question his trading ability. You can question his over-reliance on loyalty.

You can NOT question that the man knows how to draft players.

 

[Dave is a killer]

And yet, everyone conveniently forgets that GMDP pulled off arguably two of the biggest late-round steals of the draft in Hornqvist and some guy named Karlis.

Look: I keep track of stuff like this. I have that whole thread over in the analysis subforum about Draft Value. Here's the lowdown: in only 17 drafts, the Preds are averaging 1.0146 ADV per draft. That might not sound like much, until you realize that only four other teams have a better per-draft ADV (Buffalo, Ottawa, San Jose and Colorado).

And the draft year that everyone and their brother raves about, about how much sheer talent there was in the 2003 draft? Nashville got a pretty darn good 2.3767 ADV. That was the 13th best single team draft in the last 25 years.

You can question his trading ability. You can question his over-reliance on loyalty.

You can NOT question that the man knows how to draft players.

I think you can also question whether he can put together a Stanley Cup winning team

 

[herzausstein]

You shouldn't of limited it only to first round picks as poile has struck some gold in the other rounds.

1999- round 7 - erat
2003- round 2 - klein
2003- round 2 - weber
2004- round 8 - rinne
2005- round 3 - franson
2005- round 7 - hornqvist
2008- round 2 - josi
2009- round 4 - smith
2009- round 4 - ekholm
other notable non first rounders
hellberg (2), salomaki (2), aberg (2), vesey (3), saros (4)

 

[Byrddog]

You shouldn't of limited it only to first round picks as poile has struck some gold in the other rounds.

1999- round 7 - erat
2003- round 2 - klein
2003- round 2 - weber
2004- round 8 - rinne
2005- round 3 - franson
2005- round 7 - hornqvist
2008- round 2 - josi
2009- round 4 - smith
2009- round 4 - ekholm
other notable non first rounders
hellberg (2), salomaki (2), aberg (2), vesey (3), saros (4)

This is where Poile has exceled or more than that his scouting. The 1st round picks are gambles for upper echelon players. A couple days ago I brought up that Poile needs to draft to need and still think that's critical. It was argued that you must take the BPA. Well that has not worked out too well either for the 1st rounders. This would be a better team if Poile had traded down giving up Jones for Monahan or Lindholm but that's just one year.

 

[Filip Forceberg]

This would be a better team if Poile had traded down giving up Jones for Monahan or Lindholm but that's just one year.

I disagree. You don't pass on a talent like Seth Jones if he falls into your lap, even if you're already stacked with defensemen.

 

[deanwormer]

In any given year some guy gets missed not only by GMDP but everyone else in the league, too. It's one thing to note I can't believe he took whomever with the 11th pick and COL took whoever at 13, quite another to circle back a couple years later and go we took this stinker at 11 and look at this guy who went at 40 - that means that he got passe on 39 times, not just by DP.

In total, we get pretty good value in the draft - we got an upper-echelon goalie - aren't many of those. We got a true #1Dman (really, 2 of them in the same draft) - there aren't many of those, either. (and I'm betting we got a 3rd before Mr. Jones is done developing) We've not gotten the 1C, but we sure got a lot of rosterable players. In the end, it's difficult to complain about the overall effectiveness of our drafts.

Now, wanna' complain about other aspects of DP doing the GM job, I'm with ya' 150%, but I don't really see it in the draft.

 

[Soundgarden]

Now let's look at the '09 draft. We drafted Ellis, beck, Bourque, Latta, Eckholm and Smith. That's six roster players of varying quality, that is astounding drafting. I'm sure if you looked at the average number of players picked by any team in a given year the amount of actual NHL players would be around two or three.

Complaining about not picking a forward at 11 is fine I guess, but you should also have to acknowledge that we picked a solid too 6'er in Smith at 99 or wherever. Not to mention Ellis has made fantastic strides and probably had the highest potential and mystery about him coming into the draft. Again, I think we did fine.

 

[Jarnberg]

You can NOT question that the man knows how to draft players.

Sure you can. He mostly knows how to draft safe, two-way players. He still struggles to draft the offensive talent we need to win in the playoffs.

People can throw out the normal things (draft position, number of offensive players in a draft) but for whatever reason, Poile struggles to land them. How many good centers (what you need in the playoffs) have we drafted? Top line center? We've had the same needs for years and we keep coming back to them.

He's no doubt landed some solid defensemen and some pretty serviceable forwards but has yet to draft that talent we need on the offensive side, specifically centers.

 

[Drake744]

This is where Poile has exceled or more than that his scouting. The 1st round picks are gambles for upper echelon players. A couple days ago I brought up that Poile needs to draft to need and still think that's critical. It was argued that you must take the BPA. Well that has not worked out too well either for the 1st rounders. This would be a better team if Poile had traded down giving up Jones for Monahan or Lindholm but that's just one year.

While we'd like to have a guy like Monahan right now (I have little interest in Lindholm), you can't possibly think that in the moment Poile would've passed over Jones to draft him. I'm still surprised Florida and Tampa Bay did. That draft was billed as the year of the big 4. All anyone wanted was to have a top 4 pick so they could secure themselves one of MacKinnon, Jones, Barkov or Drouin. Calgary even tried their hardest to make a deal with us involving getting our number 4 pick, so they sort of "settled" for Monahan at the time. It's almost certain that they originally wanted someone else. They wouldn't have traded into the top 4 to draft Monahan because no one thought he'd be picked before 5.

I think if you got a league-wide opinion, people would probably say Colorado and Nashville made the right pick, Florida made a tough call but could go either way, Tampa Bay and Carolina have failed so far. Imagine how Canes fans must feel right now. Not only did Jones not fall to them but they chose Lindholm over Monahan, granted Calgary is a better situation for a player to be in.

 

[Enoch]

David Poile and his scouting team have drafted 4 superstar players here in Nashville. Four - Suter, Weber, Rinne, Josi. Only one of them was a first round pick. That is slam dunk drafting. This guy can draft.

The problem with Poile isn't the draft success or even inability to draft forwards. It has been the inability to draft a game-breaking top line forward.

This has been his achilles heel. Couple the above with his difficulty to find that forward on the free agent or trade market, and you have a larger problem.

 

[Viqsi]

Sure you can. He mostly knows how to draft safe, two-way players. He still struggles to draft the offensive talent we need to win in the playoffs.

People can throw out the normal things (draft position, number of offensive players in a draft) but for whatever reason, Poile struggles to land them. How many good centers (what you need in the playoffs) have we drafted? Top line center? We've had the same needs for years and we keep coming back to them.

He's no doubt landed some solid defensemen and some pretty serviceable forwards but has yet to draft that talent we need on the offensive side, specifically centers.

Here's a few lists that might help illustrate how easy it is to make this happen. Of all the folks drafted within ten picks of any draft pick Nashville has ever held, however briefly...

Guys who folks think of occasionally as #1Cs when they want to make a point, but who generally play wing instead:

• 1999 #210 Henrik Zetterberg; used pick #205 on some unknown goalie.
• 2003 #11 Jeff Carter; used pick #7 on D Ryan Suter.
• 2003 #205 Joe Pavelski; pick #204 was traded to Colorado in some unknown deal.

Guys who have been team #1Cs in the past but are not capable of that anymore (if they ever truly were):

• 1998 #64 Brad Richards; used pick #60 on C Denis Arkhipov.
• 2005 #44 Paul Stastny; pick #43 was traded to Chicago in some unknown deal.

Unproven guys who might have #1C upside but who aren't there yet:

• 2010 #19 Nick Bjugstad; used pick #18 on RW Austin Watson.
• 2013 #5 Elias Lindholm, #6 Sean Monahan; used pick #4 on D Seth Jones.

Current unambiguous #1 centers in the NHL:

• ...

So. Two borderline guys, two Ludicrous Home Runs (one of which is also borderline), one legit missed opportunity that by now is horribly washed up, and three prospects that Ribeiro outperformed. But, yeah, he really should just take the initiative and Just Go Draft One, right?

Also note: when I started gathering this info, I had a category for "Current #2Cs in the NHL", but Stastny was the only one who fit there (Patrick Sharp's a winger, after all) and I had nowhere to put Richards otherwise.