Evaluate Chevy - Part III (mod warning post #104, #122)

[tbcwpg]

I feel like people are fixating on the Montoya thing. That really wasn't my point. My point was that the Pavelec contract and subsequent handling of his performance is what pushed me to give Cheveldayoff to a failing grade.

Contrary to some assumptions, I don't think that Chevy is a monster or some terrible GM. He's done some good things, and some bad things.

The Montoya thing was because you have brought him up a lot. I admit to skipping some pages so if it was more an example than anything, then ignore most of what I've said. Some still appplies.

In fairness (also wisdom I think) it is better to compare the 2 on career numbers. Pavelec .906, Monty .910. Monty is CLEARLY better but not miles ahead. If we had kept Monty as backup the best forecast would probably be that each plays his career avg. The sum would be about the same as last year.

If Pavs does .906 this year and Hutch manages an unspectacular .912 we might be slightly better than last year. Just guessing at those combined numbers. I haven't done the math. I don't think those numbers lead to Hutch taking over as the starter though.

I agree that Pavelec will be still be the starter if Hutch marginally outplays him this season, but getting Hutch some more experience will be worth it in my eyes.

I think Chevy has set up the team to be competitive for spots down the road, including in goal. It will take some Pavelec time to really groom them up I think.

 

[Hollywood3]

The Montoya thing was because you have brought him up a lot. I admit to skipping some pages so if it was more an example than anything, then ignore most of what I've said. Some still appplies.



I agree that Pavelec will be still be the starter if Hutch marginally outplays him this season, but getting Hutch some more experience will be worth it in my eyes.

I think Chevy has set up the team to be competitive for spots down the road, including in goal. It will take some Pavelec time to really groom them up I think.

My fear is that by the time Hutch is made the starter the season will be over. Montoya outperformed Pavelec by 19 points but, due to Chevy's insane contract, performance did not matter and Pavelec remained the starter. If Montoya could not become the starter despite being 19 points better, then how could Hutch become the starter if is "only" 5-10 points better?

I have no problem with Chevy's other decisions but this Pavelec contract is bound to kill us. (Unless we get really lucky and Maurice sets him down by October, or we get lucky and Hellebuyck/Hutchison are ready to be a tandem.)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Somebody made a post pointing to the CBC story about bad contracts on the Canadian NHL teams. I can't find the post now but he pointed out that Bogo's contract made the list. It was a very poor story. Clarkson didn't make the list but it raises a question.

Chevy's contract signings have been held up as one of his shining accomplishments and there certainly have been some good signings. But is it such a plus overall? Little, Ladd, Wheeler are all pluses. Pavelec, Thorburn, Stuart are all minuses. IMO, of course. What about some of the others? Are the rest all just 50/50 or are there more that belong on either the plus or minus sides of the ledger? In all honesty, leaving out issues like a CBO for Pavs what grade does Chevy deserve for his contract negotiation record?

 

[Whileee]

Somebody made a post pointing to the CBC story about bad contracts on the Canadian NHL teams. I can't find the post now but he pointed out that Bogo's contract made the list. It was a very poor story. Clarkson didn't make the list but it raises a question.

Chevy's contract signings have been held up as one of his shining accomplishments and there certainly have been some good signings. But is it such a plus overall? Little, Ladd, Wheeler are all pluses. Pavelec, Thorburn, Stuart are all minuses. IMO, of course. What about some of the others? Are the rest all just 50/50 or are there more that belong on either the plus or minus sides of the ledger? In all honesty, leaving out issues like a CBO for Pavs what grade does Chevy deserve for his contract negotiation record?

Pavelec was a terrible contract, especially in retrospect.

Thorburn's contract is probably fine in the marketplace. I still don't know why so many people are so upset about it. The Jets like him in the room as a solid guy and 4th liner.

Stuart's contract seems a bit rich, but it really is a matter of how you view his play.

Jokinen's contract was too much, in retrospect, but not many thought so at the time.

I think that Perreault's contract might turn out to look pretty good.

I think that the rest of his signings have actually been very good when you look at the marketplace. He has a big "incomplete" next to the Frolik deal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pavelec was a terrible contract, especially in retrospect.

Thorburn's contract is probably fine in the marketplace. I still don't know why so many people are so upset about it. The Jets like him in the room as a solid guy and 4th liner.

Thorburn is keeping some better player in the AHL. Right now I think it looks like that player will be Klingberg. He will not only be kept out of the line up but lost for nothing like Redmond. Klingberg is never going to be a top 6 player but he is probably a better player than Thorburn.

Stuart's contract seems a bit rich, but it really is a matter of how you view his play.

A bit rich and a bit long. He is probably keeping a better player down. If not yet then he will before his contract expires.

Jokinen's contract was too much, in retrospect, but not many thought so at the time.

Yeah, I give Chevy a freebie on Olli.

I think that Perreault's contract might turn out to look pretty good.

Too soon to say but could be very good.

I think that the rest of his signings have actually been very good when you look at the marketplace. He has a big "incomplete" next to the Frolik deal.

Frolik looks bad at the moment but yeah, incomplete.
I wonder a bit about Bogo. It was too much, too long considering that Bogo was (and still is) somewhat unproven. His injury history is the big worry for me right now. He needs to get past that. It is possible that even if Bogo continues to underperform that contract will still look OK as the standard pay rises but it could be a minus deal too. OTOH if Bogo develops into what he was expected to be, or close that contract is a bargain going forward. I think this season may decide where that all falls.

 

[Whileee]

Thorburn is keeping some better player in the AHL. Right now I think it looks like that player will be Klingberg. He will not only be kept out of the line up but lost for nothing like Redmond. Klingberg is never going to be a top 6 player but he is probably a better player than Thorburn.



A bit rich and a bit long. He is probably keeping a better player down. If not yet then he will before his contract expires.



Yeah, I give Chevy a freebie on Olli.



Too soon to say but could be very good.



Frolik looks bad at the moment but yeah, incomplete.
I wonder a bit about Bogo. It was too much, too long considering that Bogo was (and still is) somewhat unproven. His injury history is the big worry for me right now. He needs to get past that. It is possible that even if Bogo continues to underperform that contract will still look OK as the standard pay rises but it could be a minus deal too. OTOH if Bogo develops into what he was expected to be, or close that contract is a bargain going forward. I think this season may decide where that all falls.

Klingberg might make it as a bottom line player, but I just don't see him as being anything more than that. I don't think Thorburn is hindering anyone's career, except maybe Peluso's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Klingberg might make it as a bottom line player, but I just don't see him as being anything more than that. I don't think Thorburn is hindering anyone's career, except maybe Peluso's.

But Klingberg won't be a bottom line player for the Jets because Thor is there. It isn't that he is hindering Klingberg's career it is that he is making him have that career with another team.

 

[KingBogo]

But Klingberg won't be a bottom line player for the Jets because Thor is there. It isn't that he is hindering Klingberg's career it is that he is making him have that career with another team.

IMO no player hinders another's career. There are literally hundreds of players on the bubble of NHL rosters. And the Jets have more then their share of them. Some eke out careers. Others don't. I'm not a big Thor fan but he has had a pretty good career with limited talent. Sometimes being willing to be a punching bag at the right times is enough to make the difference. Klingberg will get his shots, its up to him what he does with them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

IMO no player hinders another's career. There are literally hundreds of players on the bubble of NHL rosters. And the Jets have more then their share of them. Some eke out careers. Others don't. I'm not a big Thor fan but he has had a pretty good career with limited talent. Sometimes being willing to be a punching bag at the right times is enough to make the difference. Klingberg will get his shots, its up to him what he does with them.

Like I said, he will have his career somewhere just like Redmond. Thorburn's value to the Jets is debatable. I know because I see it debated all the time.

 

[KingBogo]

Like I said, he will have his career somewhere just like Redmond. Thorburn's value to the Jets is debatable. I know because I see it debated all the time.

Its debatable still whether Klingberg will have much of an NHL career. He will turn 24 this season and has yet to shown much. And lets not forget the Jets are one of the easiest lineups to crack. My guess he waives through the league and spends most of the season in St. Johns. Not much different than last season or next season for that matter.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Like I said, he will have his career somewhere just like Redmond. Thorburn's value to the Jets is debatable. I know because I see it debated all the time.

Then perhaps Klinger should seize the opportunity, outplay Thorburn, and take that roster position from him, yes?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Then perhaps Klinger should seize the opportunity, outplay Thorburn, and take that roster position from him, yes?

That would be nice. Question is can that happen? Is that roster position up for grabs or has it already been given to Thor for the next 3 seasons?

 

[Hollywood3]

The Klingberg v Thorburn debate illustrates one of the problems with contracts and training camp. There is NO WAY that jobs are won and lost based on performance at camp and exhibition games. This is not unique to the Jets. No coach is going to cut a guy with a 3 year deal in favour of a guy with a 2-way contract. Such a move would make the GM look bad.

So, the decision on which player is being kept was made in June and nothing happening thereafter has any impact.

 

[KingBogo]

The Klingberg v Thorburn debate illustrates one of the problems with contracts and training camp. There is NO WAY that jobs are won and lost based on performance at camp and exhibition games. This is not unique to the Jets. No coach is going to cut a guy with a 3 year deal in favour of a guy with a 2-way contract. Such a move would make the GM look bad.

So, the decision on which player is being kept was made in June and nothing happening thereafter has any impact.

I would say Thors job is safe due to his contract. But the Jets have left themselves lots of wiggle room if some of their prospects are ready. They really only have 10 forward spots looked in, with Hali, Galiardi, Tangradi and Peluso taking up spots 11-14. Each one of of them could be replaced. Same with defense with Pardy and Ellerby as 7-8. I'm not saying prospects will push them all aside but Chevy has left the door open for some young players to make the team coming out of camp.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Klingberg v Thorburn debate illustrates one of the problems with contracts and training camp. There is NO WAY that jobs are won and lost based on performance at camp and exhibition games. This is not unique to the Jets. No coach is going to cut a guy with a 3 year deal in favour of a guy with a 2-way contract. Such a move would make the GM look bad.

So, the decision on which player is being kept was made in June and nothing happening thereafter has any impact.

I don't disagree but I think you might be overstating it a little. For example we have several non-roster forwards who have at least an outside chance of grabbing a 3rd line spot. Any of Ehlers, Petan or Kosmachuk could conceivably force their way in. If that happens others get shifted down a spot. O'Dell joins the competition for 4th line space. Thorburn is pretty much guaranteed no less than the 13th F spot (which he might share with Peluso at 14). So Klingberg has to beat out 2 of Hali, Galiardi, Tangradi (and maybe Peluso) for 4th line wings. Or at least that is how I think it should be.

What I expect is Thorburn playing regularly on the 4th line with Slater. Galiardi & Tangradi Sharing the other wing & 13th spot. Peluso will spend a lot of time in the pressbox. Klingberg and Halischuk will be in St. John's if they clear waivers. That means Klingberg going the same route as Redmond next off-season.

In a roundabout way I am saying that SOME jobs may be decided in TC and exhibitions. SOME players with 2 way contracts might win jobs from SOME guys with one way contracts but Thorburn will start the season with the Jets regardless of how good Klingberg/Tangradi/Galiardi are. Peluso is not quite so certain but he probably gets the 14th F spot over some probably better players. You don't want to find yourself with only 1 face-puncher. Like it or not that is still the reality of NHL hockey. So maybe it is not about Thor's contract. Maybe it is about that reality. 2 of the bottom 5 positions are reserved for those guys and everybody else is chasing the other 12 positions. 1 or both of those 2 guys may or may not take a regular shift on the 4th line but 1 of them will dress for every game.

 

[CaptainChef]

That would be nice. Question is can that happen? Is that roster position up for grabs or has it already been given to Thor for the next 3 seasons?

If the Jets history is anything to go by they have paid him such that he won't be sitting on the bench for extended periods, he certainly won't be sent down, and the likelihood of him being traded are slim to none. So yes, given the length and especially the amount, he will be blocking progress of all the guys that could come up and start on the fourth line but given a chance might be considerably better than Thorbs

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the Jets history is anything to go by they have paid him such that he won't be sitting on the bench for extended periods, he certainly won't be sent down, and the likelihood of him being traded are slim to none. So yes, given the length and especially the amount, he will be blocking progress of all the guys that could come up and start on the fourth line but given a chance might be considerably better than Thorbs

Yup. I wouldn't mind if he was dressed as the 13th F but he will most likely be taking a regular shift on the 4th line. The consolation is that with Slater back (and I hope healthy) and probably either Tangradi or Galiardi on the other wing the 4th line should still be better than last year with Wright at either LW or C.

I'm not sure what happens if (when) Slater gets hurt. Does O'Dell drop back to 4C or do they bring up somebody (Lowry?)? That will probably depend on both how well O'Dell is doing at 3W and how well Lowry is doing in St. John's.

 

[NBjet]

I really don't think that anybody's going to be blocking anybody strictly base on contracts. It might seem like a log jam at the bottom of the lineup, but don't forget that you ALWAYS need some spare parts for injuries. I'm sure that Thorbs understands that he is going to be the 13th man when that is the best option for the club, but like a good soldier I think that he will be ready to do what's asked of him without complaint, and a good example of a company man is good for the young-uns to observe... I think that that's why he's still here. It's not his skill, but his attitude...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I really don't think that anybody's going to be blocking anybody strictly base on contracts. It might seem like a log jam at the bottom of the lineup, but don't forget that you ALWAYS need some spare parts for injuries. I'm sure that Thorbs understands that he is going to be the 13th man when that is the best option for the club, but like a good soldier I think that he will be ready to do what's asked of him without complaint, and a good example of a company man is good for the young-uns to observe... I think that that's why he's still here. It's not his skill, but his attitude...

I wouldn't say it was strictly based on the contract. It is based on a perception of his value. The contract is based on the same perception. It is the validity of that perception that is in question.

 

[NBjet]

I wouldn't say it was strictly based on the contract. It is based on a perception of his value. The contract is based on the same perception. It is the validity of that perception that is in question.

Yeah, but I have to defer to the hockey experts. They obviously are well aware of the limitations of his skills on the ice, so there must be other components to his presence that they feel have value... all that esoteric locker room stuff, or whatever. Or maybe they are hoping a prospect pushes him out, because he's the kind of player that has value at the trade deadline - grab a pick or prospect and run if one of our prospects steps up after a little seasoning down on the farm. I would hope that we're playing checkers on these boards, and the people actually in charge are playing chess. I guess time will tell...

 

[pucka lucka]

Yeah, but I have to defer to the hockey experts. They obviously are well aware of the limitations of his skills on the ice, so there must be other components to his presence that they feel have value... all that esoteric locker room stuff, or whatever. Or maybe they are hoping a prospect pushes him out, because he's the kind of player that has value at the trade deadline - grab a pick or prospect and run if one of our prospects steps up after a little seasoning down on the farm. I would hope that we're playing checkers on these boards, and the people actually in charge are playing chess. I guess time will tell...

Because someone is paid as an expert means that don't make mistakes or have gaps in their competency? Why don't we have 30 equal teams?

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah, but I have to defer to the hockey experts. They obviously are well aware of the limitations of his skills on the ice, so there must be other components to his presence that they feel have value... all that esoteric locker room stuff, or whatever. Or maybe they are hoping a prospect pushes him out, because he's the kind of player that has value at the trade deadline - grab a pick or prospect and run if one of our prospects steps up after a little seasoning down on the farm. I would hope that we're playing checkers on these boards, and the people actually in charge are playing chess. I guess time will tell...

Its not hard to understand why the Jets signed Thorbs, he is the best or at least plays the most clearly defined role out of the dredge we have at the bottom of the lineup. The length and amount of is contract are a bit of a head scratcher.

 

[Whileee]

Its not hard to understand why the Jets signed Thorbs, he is the best or at least plays the most clearly defined role out of the dredge we have at the bottom of the lineup. The length and amount of is contract are a bit of a head scratcher.

Thorbs plays a very particular role. He's sort of a "hybrid enforcer". When he's in the line-up he's usually the only player who will go up against another team's enforcer. The coaches think he's better at hockey than a lot of enforcers, which is why the Jets terrible depth in the past few years has let him slip up the line-up from time to time. It's also why he got a three-year contract, along with the fact that the Jets obviously like what he brings to the locker room and the team culture.

The suggestion that he is competing for Klingberg's spot seems odd to me. If Klingberg had showed signs of being good he would have replaced someone like Halischuk or Tangradi or O'Dell in the line-up. Klingberg obviously hasn't impressed anyone in the organization enough to take that role.

As the Jets develop more and better bottom line players the depth / competition for Thorburn's spot comes mainly from Peluso.

 

[NBjet]

Because someone is paid as an expert means that don't make mistakes or have gaps in their competency? Why don't we have 30 equal teams?

I'm talking about OUR hockey experts... I happen to believe that Chevy et al have done a lot more good than bad. And I couldn't even begin to convey the actually disparity in hockey smarts between the likes of Chevy and the average poster here. The punditry gets ridiculous at times... but I understand that that's what fans do, myself included. We're really all just howling into the wind... thankfully!

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Let's use this thread going forward, since it has a fancy poll and all (and will end up being a duplicate of this thread):

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1733087