Estimating NHL scoring for Soviet players

[steve141]

Has anyone done any serious attempt at estimating what Soviet era players would have scored in the NHL?

I had an idea for a crude approximation by adjusting the Soviet numbers against the player's own results after moving to the NHL. Most players have a similar career curve, with scoring usually peaking in their mid 20s.

Let's take Makarov for example. He scored 1.08 points per game in his first NHL season. In his last Soviet league season he scored 1.23 points per game.

Using 1.08/1.23=0.87 as the basis for PPG adjustment allows us to estimate what his earlier years would translate to in the NHL.

Estimated NHL points for Makarov

Season | Age | Team | Soviet GP | Est GP | Soviet PPG | Adj PPG | Est Points

1976-77 | 18 | Traktor Chelyabinsk | 11 | 24 | 0,09 | 0,08 | 2
1977-78 | 19 | Traktor Chelyabinsk | 36 | 80 | 0,86 | 0,75 | 60
1978-79 | 20 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 0,89 | 0,78 | 62
1979-80 | 21 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,35 | 108
1980-81 | 22 | CSKA Moscow | 49 | 80 | 1,61 | 1,41 | 113
1981-82 | 23 | CSKA Moscow | 46 | 78 | 1,63 | 1,43 | 112
1982-83 | 24 | CSKA Moscow | 30 | 55 | 1,40 | 1,23 | 67
1983-84 | 25 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,66 | 1,45 | 116
1984-85 | 26 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,63 | 1,42 | 114
1985-86 | 27 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,36 | 109
1986-87 | 28 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,33 | 1,16 | 93
1987-88 | 29 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,35 | 108
1988-89 | 30 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,23 | 1,08 | 86

Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?

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[Henkka]

Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?

Sovjet league didn't have the 2nd assist in their time. That could change those stats drastically.

 

[Yamaguchi*]

Has anyone done any serious attempt at estimating what Soviet era players would have scored in the NHL?

I had an idea for a crude approximation by adjusting the Soviet numbers against the player's own results after moving to the NHL. Most players have a similar career curve, with scoring usually peaking in their mid 20s.

Let's take Makarov for example. He scored 1.08 points per game in his first NHL season. In his last Soviet league season he scored 1.23 points per game.

Using 1.08/1.23=0.87 as the basis for PPG adjustment allows us to estimate what his earlier years would translate to in the NHL.

Estimated NHL points for Makarov

Season | Age | Team | Soviet GP | Est GP | Soviet PPG | Adj PPG | Est Points

1976-77 | 18 | Traktor Chelyabinsk | 11 | 24 | 0,09 | 0,08 | 2
1977-78 | 19 | Traktor Chelyabinsk | 36 | 80 | 0,86 | 0,75 | 60
1978-79 | 20 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 0,89 | 0,78 | 62
1979-80 | 21 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,35 | 108
1980-81 | 22 | CSKA Moscow | 49 | 80 | 1,61 | 1,41 | 113
1981-82 | 23 | CSKA Moscow | 46 | 78 | 1,63 | 1,43 | 112
1982-83 | 24 | CSKA Moscow | 30 | 55 | 1,40 | 1,23 | 67
1983-84 | 25 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,66 | 1,45 | 116
1984-85 | 26 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,63 | 1,42 | 114
1985-86 | 27 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,36 | 109
1986-87 | 28 | CSKA Moscow | 40 | 80 | 1,33 | 1,16 | 93
1987-88 | 29 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,55 | 1,35 | 108
1988-89 | 30 | CSKA Moscow | 44 | 80 | 1,23 | 1,08 | 86

Does this seem reasonable? What's a better way of doing it otherwise? The above method does not take league level scoring in the NHL nor Soviet into account for one. Does anyone have this info for the Soviet league?

The above numbers would put Makarov at 1531 points in 1381 games if he had played his entire career in the NHL. Does that seem about right?

Please don't forget that in the Soviet league they often wouldn't count secondary assists.

 

[steve141]

Sovjet league didn't have the 2nd assist in their time. That could change those stats drastically.

Not really, since that is accounted for by adjusting to the player's own last season. Unless the scoring system changed during the player's career?

 

[Henkka]

Not really, since that is accounted for by adjusting to the player's own last season. Unless the scoring system changed during the player's career?

Okay, it takes them in count. I think the system was same until the collapse of the Soviet Union. Just looking from HockeyDB.com there's always almost identical amount of goals and assists in team totals.

How many goals would Makarov have scored with NHL projection? That secondary assist affects on those amounts. Or how about Krutov?

 

[Czech Your Math]

I would recommend reading this article:

Behind the Net: Projecting to the NHL

That study used goals, so a separate calculation would have to be done for assists, based on the varying Assist/Goal ratio in each league.

For more current data, one can reference this article:

Puckworlds: How Good is the KHL?