Great post.
I would suggest we can go further in estimating Howe's ESGA, especially from his peak seasons, by looking at scoring logs and which forwards scored with whom. Howe was known for his great stamina on the ice and ability to play high minutes, so it's possible he was on the ice from more than 1/3 of the play at ES. If so, he may have been on the ice for more than 1/3 of even strength goals against.
I'll take the 1950-51 season for an example. Sid Abel was Gordie Howe's regular centre at even strength. Looking at Sid Abel's scoring logs, Abel scored 50 even strength points. He combined with Howe for 38 of these points, and with Ted Lindsay for 27 points. The interesting thing is that Abel combined with no other Detroit forwards on his 50 even strength points. No double-shifting for Abel as far as we can tell. So we can start with an estimate for Abel and then build Howe's estimate from Abel's.
Let's assume that Abel played a regular shift, 33% of the ES time. Based on the scoring logs, it's a reasonable estimate that he played on the #1 line 100% of the time, and did no double shifting with any other forwards. So Abel would have 38.28 ESGA in 1950-51 as estimated by
@seventieslord.
Moving to Gordie Howe, he scored 70 even strength points. He combined with Abel on 38 of those points, and with Ted Lindsay for 31 of those points. And there were 13 of those points on which he combined with other forwards (see below for the table). Based on these points, I conclude that Howe was doing some double-shifting with lower forward lines.
I don't know the exact formula to translate these 13 points to extra ice time. Let's say that Howe was playing 20% more even-strength ice time than Sid Abel, based on these 13 points. And let's say that the team allows even strength goals against in proportion to the ice time. In that case, Howe could have been on the ice for about 40% of ESGA. Here's how that would affect the on/off ratios.
1950-51 Howe (33% of ESGA): 91.5 ESGF, 38.28 ESGA, 2.39 R-ON, 1.36 R-ON
1950-51 Howe (39.6% of ESGA): 91.5 ESGA, 45.94 ESGA, 1.99 R-ON, 1.51 R-ON
Just an estimate of course but one that uses a bit more information than the simple 33% number.
Scoring logs - 1950-51 goals with Gordie Howe and lower line DET forwards
| Rk | Date | Tm | | Opp | P | Time | | Description |
| 6 | 1950-10-28 | DET | | CBH | 1 | 9:14 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Red Kelly and Joe Carveth |
| 11 | 1950-11-08 | DET | @ | BOS | 2 | 16:28 | EV | Goal by Ted Lindsay, assisted by Gordie Howe and Jim McFadden |
| 12 | 1950-11-11 | DET | @ | TOR | 1 | 18:02 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Metro Prystai and Red Kelly |
| 22 | 1950-12-16 | DET | @ | BOS | 2 | 9:57 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Ted Lindsay and Metro Prystai |
| 29 | 1950-12-25 | DET | | NYR | 2 | 10:36 | EV | Goal by Ted Lindsay, assisted by Gordie Howe and Leo Gravelle |
| 31 | 1950-12-28 | DET | | MTL | 1 | 19:02 | EV | Goal by Leo Reise, assisted by Metro Prystai and Gordie Howe |
| 33 | 1950-12-28 | DET | | MTL | 2 | 14:04 | EV | Goal by Metro Prystai, assisted by Gordie Howe and Marty Pavelich |
| 35 | 1950-12-28 | DET | | MTL | 3 | 8:24 | EV | Goal by Ted Lindsay, assisted by Gordie Howe and Metro Prystai |
| 41 | 1951-01-09 | DET | | TOR | 2 | 8:02 | EV | Goal by George Gee, assisted by Vic Stasiuk and Gordie Howe |
| 48 | 1951-01-17 | DET | @ | CBH | 3 | 16:10 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Marty Pavelich and Jim McFadden |
| 61 | 1951-02-07 | DET | | CBH | 3 | 9:57 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Ted Lindsay and George Gee |
| 63 | 1951-02-08 | DET | @ | CBH | 2 | 10:25 | EV | Goal by George Gee, assisted by Gordie Howe |
| 64 | 1951-02-11 | DET | @ | BOS | 1 | 0:41 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Glen Skov |
I'll continue this off-topic digression about estimating Gordie Howe's on-ice goals in his prime.
After looking at the 51-52, 52-53, and 53-54 scoring logs, there is less evidence for Howe double-shifting in those seasons. He may have played a regular shift with maybe 5% more ice time, rather than the 20% extra ice time I suggested for 50-51.
1951-52
Sid Abel once again centred Howe and Lindsay. This was the 33 year old Abel's final season with the Wings, he would move to Chicago as a coach after this season.
Sid Abel scored 33 points at even strength. Gordie Howe also received a point on 24 of them and Ted Lindsay on 21 of them. No other Detroit forwards combined with Abel at even strength. So I'll conclude that Abel played a regular shift centering Howe and Lindsay, with no double shifting.
Abel only played 62 of 70 games. In those 8 games, it looks like Glen Skov replaced Abel on the top line. I'll look only at those 62 games played by Abel and see if Howe and Lindsay's scoring logs show any evidence of double-shifting.
In those 62 games, Howe scored 52 EV points. 32 of them included Ted Lindsay, and 24 included Sid Abel. Outside of those two linemates, in those 62 games that Howe played, he only combined on 2 EV points with different forwards. One with Glen Skov, and one with Fred Glover. And Ted Lindsay was also involved in the goal with Glover, so Glover may have been replacing Abel on the top line for a shift rather than Howe and Lindsay double-shifting.
With only 1-2 points showing evidence of Howe double-shifting at EV, I would say he probably played about 1/3 of the EV ice time, maybe 5% more at most.
| Rk | Date | Tm | | Opp | P | Time | | Description |
| 14 | 1951-11-18 | DET | @ | NYR | 3 | 3:04 | EV | Goal by Gordie Howe, assisted by Glen Skov and Marcel Pronovost |
| 50 | 1952-02-03 | DET | | NYR | 2 | 18:48 | EV | Goal by Fred Glover, assisted by Ted Lindsay and Gordie Howe |
1952-53
With Sid Abel gone to Chicago, Metro Prystai took most of the minutes between Howe and Lindsay. However, he didn't play the full season there. Of Prystai's 41 points at even strength, he combined with the following forwards:
Gordie Howe 23
Ted Lindsay 15
Alex Delvecchio 11
Johnny Wilson 8
Reg Sinclair 1
The goals with Delvecchio and Wilson overlap, and the goals with Howe and Lindsay overlap, but there's no overlap between Delvecchio or Wilson and Howe or Lindsay. So it's clear that Prystai spent part of the season on a Lindsay-Prystai-Howe line, and part on a Delvecchio-Prystai-Wilson line. The points with Delvecchio and Wilson add to 19, and the points with Lindsay and Howe to 38, so 1/3 with Delvecchio/Wilson and 2/3 with Lindsay/Howe. Let's say Prystai played 2/3 of the time on the top line with Ted Lindsay and Gordie Howe.
All of Howe, Lindsay, Prystai, Wilson, and Delvecchio played 70 GP so we can consider all 70 games when estimating from the scoring logs.
Gordie Howe scored 67 EV points. He combined with the following Detroit forwards as follows:
Ted Lindsay 40
Metro Prystai 23
Alex Delvecchio 8
Marty Pavelich 6
Reg Sinclair 2
Johnny Wilson 2
Glen Skov 1
Lou Jankowski 1
Looks like Howe played most of his time with Ted Lindsay. Is there any evidence that he played without Lindsay?
Lindsay also appears on both Howe's goals with Sinclair, and Howe's one goal with Jankowski.
Lindsay was not involved in either of Howe's goals with the winger Johnny Wilson, and Alex Delvecchio was on one of them. So I would say Howe played a little time with Johnny Wilson on LW rather than Lindsay.
Both Alex Delvecchio and Marty Pavelich appear to have spent some time centering Howe and Lindsay.
I'll say Howe had 2 goals with Wilson-Delvecchio-Howe, maybe 5% of ice time. All the rest were likely with Ted Lindsay at LW, with Prystai, Delvecchio, Pavelich, Sinclair, Skov, or Jankowski as the C.
Marty Pavelich and Ted Lindsay combined for 3 goals with just the 2 of them, and 5 goals with Howe. I'll assume that Howe was on the ice for those 3 as well, there's no evidence that any other RW was involved.
| Centre with Howe/Lindsay | Points w/Howe | Percentage | Points w/Lindsay | Percentage | Average |
| Prystai | 23 | 59% | 15 | 52% | 55% |
| Delvecchio | 6 | 15% | 3 | 10% | 13% |
| Pavelich | 6 | 15% | 8 | 28% | 21% |
| Sinclair | 2 | 5% | 2 | 7% | 6% |
| Skov | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| Jankowski | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3% | 3% |
| Total (centres) | 39 | 100% | 29 | 100% | 100% |
Based on these numbers, Prystai spent about 55-60% of the EV ice time between Lindsay and Howe, and the rest of the time with Delvecchio/Wilson. Prystai scored at a higher rate with Lindsay/Howe, as one would expect, getting about 2/3 of his EV points with them.
Howe appears to have played exclusively with Ted Lindsay at LW, except for 2 points with Johnny Wilson with Alex Delvecchio at C.
To me, these numbers look like Howe played a regular shift with Lindsay, plus maybe 5% extra ice time with Wilson-Delvecchio and without Lindsay. Is it possible that both Lindsay and Howe were double-shifting and playing through multiple centres? Yes, it's possible. They did play with a number of different centres. But I think the fact that Prystai played around 55-60% of their ice time and then spent a fair bit of time with Delvecchio and Wilson puts a limit on how much they could have been double shifting, assuming Prystai, Delvecchio, and Wilson were playing regular shifts. Maybe another 5-10% extra ice time with Lindsay at most, maybe none.
1953-54
This season is a bit simpler because the rookie Dutch Reibel became the regular centre for Howe and Lindsay. Reibel missed 1 game and Howe and Lindsay both played all 70 games. In the game that Reibel missed, Howe and Lindsay combined with Alex Delvecchio for a goal. I'll exclude that one goal to look only at the 69 GP played by Lindsay, Reibel, and Howe.
Of Howe's 47 even strength points, he combined with other Detroit forwards as follows:
Dutch Reibel 25
Ted Lindsay 24
Marty Pavelich 4
Glen Skov 1
Vic Stasiuk 1
Of Lindsay's 34 even strength points, he combined with other Detroit forwards as follows:
Gordie Howe 24
Dutch Reibel 21
Vic Stasiuk 2
Marty Pavelich 1
Bill Dineen 1
And of Reibel's 36 even strength points, he combined with other Detroit forwards as follows:
Gordie Howe 25
Ted Lindsay 24
Vic Stasiuk 2
Marty Pavelich 1
Bill Dineen 1
There were two goals where Lindsay/Reibel/Stasiuk combined, and one goal where Lindsay/Reibel/Dineen combined. So Lindsay and Reibel did play a bit without Howe. And Howe played a bit without them, probably about the same amount as Lindsay/Reibel without Howe based on the number of points they each had with other forwards.
I would say either all of Lindsay, Reibel, and Howe played a regular shift, or they all did about 5% extra time double shifting.
