Prospect Info: Erik Karlsson as a prospect

[WhoahNow]

Hey guys, Stars fan coming in peace. Just had a question for you guys in regards to Erik Karlsson before he was in the NHL and the 70+ point player he is now. I guess my question is from a prospect perspective what was your expectations for him, or was he always expected to be a guy who would be able to put up big numbers (from when he was drafted to his first season), did he rise out of no where, or was it an expected debut by the time he was in the NHL? Any info would be great! Thanks

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[Philoops]

The comparable player that came up on draft day was Brian Rafalski

 

[HavlatMach9]

expected (not necessarily 60-70+ points though) as he was already rising before he was drafted and was one of the most skilled players at the time of the draft. he made drastic but linear steps each year. he won a WJC MVP, was PPG in the AHL in his about 10 games, and put up points right away in his rookie season.

it was a matter of when he'd play in the NHL and whether he could overcome hurdles in order to be effective. his talent was so high that even though his body wasn't ready, he could play in the NHL

 

[Benjamin]

Nobody thought he was going to be this good. Not even management. That big of a breakout came out of nowhere. Owe a huge thanks to Paul Maclean.

Most people expected a 40-60 point #2-#3 dman.

 

[dan1el]

I was super excited watching him play alongside Victor Hedman in the juniors, but I expected a maybe 50-point defenseman who might be able to crack 60 one year. Definitely thought we would be picking up one of the better offensive defenseman in the league but never thought he'd be close to Norris quality.

 

[koreaboy]

I remember really, really hoping that they weren't going to try to rush him that second year (I think when he was 19) into the NHL and I wanted him to spend the whole year in the AHL. I figured a tiny little guy never having played on small ice would need a full year of seasoning on small ice in the minors. I think anyone who said he'd be a Norris calibre guy in hindsight are probably lying. But he came in and it was clear he was an electric skater who could pass and shoot.

And then in his Norris year, he was absolutely unreal. I think without a doubt, the best season ever had by an ottawa senator. Ever. Unreal skating, great shot, an absolutely unmatched ability to skate away from people out of danger and either take it himself or hit a forward with a bullet pass on the tape. And all of that while being extremely responsible defensively. He wasn't getting turned to his right regularly anymore, and while he didn't shine trying to muscle big forwards down low, he was truly a very good defensive player because of his stick and his recovery speed. If he got beat, he'd just chase the the guy down from behind. He made so, so many defensive plays by just outsmarting guys to angle them out, or catching them from behind to knock it away. It blew me away one game when he started from about 8 feet behind ovechkin who was at full speed, and he CAUGHT him from behind and broke up the breakaway. It was scary.

He hasn't quite been that guy since. We hope his Achilles is fully back and he starts doing that again. I think this past year was very tough for him on a personal level too. Generational skills though, still.

 

[LynxBud]

When he was first drafted I was a lot more emotionally invested in this team. I was pretty excited the day they drafted him. I can't remember what my exact expectations of him were, but I remember thinking he would be the next Alfie. Maybe an Alfie/Lidstrom hybrid. I talked him up like crazy to any other Sens fans because back then the Sens were my life. I was telling everyone how awesome he was going to be for the Sens.

Admittedly though, soon after that, I started to lose a bit of interest in the Senators for multiple reasons. I went from watching the team religiously to watching them occasionally. I was still excited for Karlsson to debut, though. By the time he did, I'd say my expectations were tempered a little. When he was drafted and I was ridiculously optimistic, I'd say I saw this coming. I miss those days.. that passion's gone.

Craziest part is, my Alfie/Lidstrom expectations were ridiculous and yet he may actually surpass them.

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

The comparable player that came up on draft day was Brian Rafalski

Wasn't Niedermayer used as comparison too? Or was that more so HFBoards.

 

[HavlatMach9]

Wasn't Niedermayer used as comparison too? Or was that more so HFBoards.

i believe TSN used Refalski, and Karlsson himself said Kronwall

08: drafted
08-09: WJ MVP defensemen
09-10: ppg in 10 games in AHL, 60 games in the NHL, 30 points pace, ppg in 6 games vs the Penguins in the playoffs, almost as many goals as the Norris winner this year
10-11: 50 point pace, played in the all-stars game
11-12: 78 points, Norris

Norris came a bit out of nowhere, but he rose steadily but quickly

 

[Back in Black]

Hey guys, Stars fan coming in peace. Just had a question for you guys in regards to Erik Karlsson before he was in the NHL and the 70+ point player he is now. I guess my question is from a prospect perspective what was your expectations for him, or was he always expected to be a guy who would be able to put up big numbers (from when he was drafted to his first season), did he rise out of no where, or was it an expected debut by the time he was in the NHL? Any info would be great! Thanks

When I was watching Sweden vs Canada Jrs, I couldn't see what they saw in him, as he didn't stand out at all. Thank god for the good scouting we have!

 

[Tap on the Ankle]

From what I remember people here on HF Sens were excited after it got out that Karlsson was in the Sens' top 5 or something, and he was probably a little more hyped than a typical Ottawa 1st rounder due to the fact that we traded up to get him, but no one had any idea he would become as good as he is today. I do remember seeing a video posted here of his only SEL goal that year (an OT winning shot from the point), but that was really all the info we had to go on aside from some Swedish posters who said he was very good for playing in a men's league at such a young age.

The expectation was probably something like a 30-40pt dman. If someone had said he would become a ppg dman, I don't think any of us would have believed it.

 

[Oil For The Boys]

I don't even really remember his rookie season that much. I just remember he had a breakout performance in the playoffs against the Penguins. From then on I knew the Sens would have a special player.

 

[Cat Herder]

I first thought was "Why are we drafting a 150lb boy"

 

[Canadian Time]

I first thought was "Why are we drafting a 150lb boy"

And you certainly weren't alone, in fact probably in the majority. Everyone remembers Brennan's garbage pick article. Karlsson probably got about the same amount of hype as Englund is today. People like reading about prospects and pretend to be able to project but it's beyond most poster's ability.

The biggest hype I remember besides the top picks was Volchenkov. When he came to the rookie tournament and knocked out that player with a hit, it was on.

 

[Senscore]

I don't even really remember his rookie season that much. I just remember he had a breakout performance in the playoffs against the Penguins. From then on I knew the Sens would have a special player.

He played 45 min in that triple OT game.

 

[Don Draper]

He jumped up a ton that first year. After the juni

 

[Don Draper]

He jumped up a ton that first year. After the junior tourney in ottawa, it was quite clear he was already moving way up the rankings, and was far and away the best defenseman in the juniors.

Zubov was the name I started using pretty exclusively, and still think that's what we have/hope for.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Imagine how you would usually rate a first round pick expecting it to be some next level star, and then the hype never fades away.

 

[MisterMethos]

Wasn't Niedermayer used as comparison too? Or was that more so HFBoards.

Comparables also included Paul Coffey for his smooth skating, Brian Leetch for his offensive abilities if I am not mistaken.

I seem to recall many people saying that it was only his size that was the major concern and what may have kept him from going in the top 10.

 

[Knave]

Here is TSN on draft day, it's a little blurry, sound isn't the best but it has it all the opinions, the draft pick and I think the interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOTrs7UgyDE

 

[dumbdick]

Here's a 2009 thread on him. Most were pretty high on him by then, but nobody was predicting greatness.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=646280&highlight=karlsson

Also, wow 2008 draft was awesome.

Stammer, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Eberle, Josi, Karlsson.
They'll be debating the #1 out of that draft decades from now.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Not to toot my own horn but when I saw him play live in Sweden the year after he was drafted, I knew he was gonna be one of the best defenders in the league. It's one of the reasons I was viewed as huge enthusiast/optimist when I first joined these boards.

The common consensus was that he was gonna be 40-50 point defender even after his rookie year a lot also foretold his ability to hit 60+

If you simply just viewed his progression from when he was drafted to his rookie year, you know he was something special. He was the best defender/player everywhere he played.

 

[WhoahNow]

Cool thanks for the input guys, just after the recent draft made me wonder how the expectations should be for top end offensive defenceman. You always hear about forwards who can put up big numbers, but when drafting an offensive dman who is 5 foot 10, 160 pounds how do you see that progress vs expectations. You guys rock


Edit: Also weird seeing Tim Murray in that video haha

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Cool thanks for the input guys, just after the recent draft made me wonder how the expectations should be for top end offensive defenceman. You always hear about forwards who can put up big numbers, but when drafting an offensive dman who is 5 foot 10, 160 pounds how do you see that progress vs expectations. You guys rock


Edit: Also weird seeing Tim Murray in that video haha

Something you need to take into consideration is also his flaws.

Some defenders that are spectacular offensively but weak in the defensive end, while they are drafted are much harder to gauge. When they get into the NHL though, their offense can't help them as much because they gotta sacrifice most of it to have sustainable defending and to just to stay in the league.

When Karlsson was drafted, even though he was known as an offensive dynamo he was also considered to be pretty good on the defensive end too with an edge physically. That's where Rafalski and Kronwall comparisons were drawn. That's something people forget about Karlsson, he wasn't considered as a tragedy in his own zone. And that's why he was able to play excellent in SEL and in WJC onwards.

Does said defender, who is really good offensively, also excel beyond his peers in other aspects of the game(speed, stick work, IQ, all of the above) that'll allow him to transfer that ability to the pros?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

It's great seeing that video again. Even with the baby fat on his face, he looks so small.

I was just hoping the kid would survive in the NHL at that size.