What about shot quality or number of scoring chances? The Leafs had a better 1st period, Blue Jackets a better 2nd, and by the 3rd period the Blue Jackets were putting everything on net behind one goal.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/201703220CBJ.html#all_advanced
Chart above shows a lot of shots from the point for the Blue Jackets, while the Leafs were taking lots of shots from the circles and the slot.
Does CF% incorporate shot quality? In my opinion, shots alone mean nothing. Sure, it's indicative of who is maintaining possession, and possession does seem like the magic elixir of success, but, like you said, who is leading? Because if a team is pressing from one goal behind, and getting 10 shots on net without a goal, but it results in a couple 2-on-1s against that lead to one goal against, then CF% may look bad but the score look good.
I guess the point I'm starting to make is that any stat in isolation isn't going to paint a clear picture.