KevinRedkey
12/18/23 and beyond!
- Jan 22, 2010
- 9,829
- 4,748
According to Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com the formula is pretty simple.
Step 1: Adjust for games played (to 82)
Step 2: Adjust for roster size (to 18)
Step 3: Adjust for league scoring
Step 4: Add it all together
Steps 1 and 2 are simple with modern players who have played 82 games, as no adjustment is required. Ther multiplier is 1.00 in that case.
Step 3:
"Calculate the era adjustment, which we will do by dividing 6 by the league average goals per game without the player in question. In 1952-53 a total of 1006 goals were scored in 210 games. Without Howe this works out to (1006 - 49) / 210 = 4.56 goals per game, so our era adjustment is 6 / 4.56 = 1.32."
If we used Draisatl from last year (50 goals in 82 games), the calculation would be:
(3826 -50) / 1271 = 2.97, so the era adjustment is 6 / 2.97 = 2.02
Step 4:
Finally, we put everything together. Take the player's actual goals and multiply by the adjustments we computed above. For Howe in 1952-53 this is 49 * 1.17 * 0.86 * 1.32 = 65 adjusted goals.
For Draisatl this is 50 * 1.00 * 1.00 * 2.02 = 101 adjusted goals.
WTF is going on here? Draisatl's era-adjusted goals should not be 101. What exactly is going on here? Am I missing something? In Step 3, why is everything divided by 6? That seems very random. I thought it might be the number of teams in the league, but dividing by 31 makes even less sense. Help?
Note: Draisatl was just the example used. I don't care about his stats specifically. I want to figure out how to calculate era-adjusted individual seasons.
Step 1: Adjust for games played (to 82)
Step 2: Adjust for roster size (to 18)
Step 3: Adjust for league scoring
Step 4: Add it all together
Steps 1 and 2 are simple with modern players who have played 82 games, as no adjustment is required. Ther multiplier is 1.00 in that case.
Step 3:
"Calculate the era adjustment, which we will do by dividing 6 by the league average goals per game without the player in question. In 1952-53 a total of 1006 goals were scored in 210 games. Without Howe this works out to (1006 - 49) / 210 = 4.56 goals per game, so our era adjustment is 6 / 4.56 = 1.32."
If we used Draisatl from last year (50 goals in 82 games), the calculation would be:
(3826 -50) / 1271 = 2.97, so the era adjustment is 6 / 2.97 = 2.02
Step 4:
Finally, we put everything together. Take the player's actual goals and multiply by the adjustments we computed above. For Howe in 1952-53 this is 49 * 1.17 * 0.86 * 1.32 = 65 adjusted goals.
For Draisatl this is 50 * 1.00 * 1.00 * 2.02 = 101 adjusted goals.
WTF is going on here? Draisatl's era-adjusted goals should not be 101. What exactly is going on here? Am I missing something? In Step 3, why is everything divided by 6? That seems very random. I thought it might be the number of teams in the league, but dividing by 31 makes even less sense. Help?
Note: Draisatl was just the example used. I don't care about his stats specifically. I want to figure out how to calculate era-adjusted individual seasons.
