GWT: EPL - Matchweek 35

[KJS14]

Yeah I mean the rest of this season is just going to be if Arsenal’s luck was enough to triumph vs City’s muscle memory. Both are strong forces. Will see how it goes

Give it a break lol.

Injury prone Ederson, who has missed games ever since he got hurt and substituted against Liverpool (funny how that worked out), looked poor today. I'd rather him have been back there than Ortega tbh.

 

[KJS14]

Why is Arsenal considered lucky? Not even a rhetorical question. What's the actual logic behind it?

Because apparently having a few opponents players miss games against us through injury or suspension means that we have a four leaf clover shoved up our ass.

Whereas Liverpool have had it so rough playing all these early Saturday games this year. Notice that you didn't hear a peep out of Savant about Spurs having 15 days to rest and prepare for Arsenal today though. Hmm...

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Because apparently having a few opponents players miss games against us through injury or suspension means that we have a four leaf clover shoved up our ass.

Whereas Liverpool have had it so rough playing all these early Saturday games this year. Notice that you didn't hear a peep out of Savant about Spurs having 15 days to rest and prepare for Arsenal today though. Hmm...

Oh. So lucky just means bitter. Got it.

 

[bluesfan94]

Why is Arsenal considered lucky? Not even a rhetorical question. What's the actual logic behind it?

There isn’t.

 

[Savant]

Give it a break lol.

Injury prone Ederson, who has missed games ever since he got hurt and substituted against Liverpool (funny how that worked out), looked poor today. I'd rather him have been back there than Ortega tbh.

It’s not just that though is it?

Because apparently having a few opponents players miss games against us through injury or suspension means that we have a four leaf clover shoved up our ass.

How is this not luck? It’s not skill? It’s random and it’s luck - which is fine but call it like it is. I think consistently missing out on teams best players is lucky. What would you call it? This doesn’t have to be seen as a negative thing. It’s just reality.

Whereas Liverpool have had it so rough playing all these early Saturday games this year. Notice that you didn't hear a peep out of Savant about Spurs having 15 days to rest and prepare for Arsenal today though. Hmm...

I talked plenty about the scheduling of this week in a different thread. I think that Tottenham would have rather had a healthy Udogie than the extra rest though

 

[Spring in Fialta]

It’s not just that though is it?


How is this not luck? It’s not skill? It’s random and it’s luck - which is fine but call it like it is. I think consistently missing out on teams best players is lucky. What would you call it? This doesn’t have to be seen as a negative thing. It’s just reality.

I talked plenty about the scheduling of this week in a different thread

Imagine going through life that salty about something you have absolutely zero control over. Christ.

 

[KJS14]

Imagine going through life that salty about something you have absolutely zero control over. Christ.

It's almost like if he only focuses on the examples that support his argument, then he might just miss the ones that directly oppose it. And since Arsenal fans don't constantly complain about reffing decisions from 6 months ago, he doesn't see them.

 

[Savant]

It's almost like if he only focuses on the examples that support his argument, then he might just miss the ones that directly oppose it. And since Arsenal fans don't constantly complain about reffing decisions from 6 months ago, he doesn't see them.

What doesn’t support this? Are you saying Arsenal haven’t dodged other teams best players this season? Especially during the second half?

Arsenal fans do plenty of complaining about the refs when they aren’t getting help like they got today. They just have worse examples.

It's almost like if he only focuses on the examples that support his argument, then he might just miss the ones that directly oppose it. And since Arsenal fans don't constantly complain about reffing decisions from 6 months ago, he doesn't see them.

What doesn’t support this? Are you saying Arsenal haven’t dodged other teams best players this season? Especially during the second half?

Arsenal fans do plenty of complaining about the refs when they aren’t getting help like they got today. They just have not been at the scene of many, if any crimes this season. If you would like to provide an example of an officiating decision that I have complained about that was unfair to complain about this season, how about you provide that.

 

[Venkman]

Iraola doing a good job with Bournemouth. Could be an option for West Ham or Brighton in the summer if Moyes and de Zerbi leave.

 

[JPBolts]

Iraola doing a good job with Bournemouth. Could be an option for West Ham or Brighton in the summer if Moyes and de Zerbi leave.

was coming on here to post about him. Iraola has shown exactly why Bournemouth sacked Gary O'Neil for him. If i were looking for a manager, I'd much rather have him than de Zerbi tbh

The biggest thing we learn from the PL on nearly a weekly basis is that the best strategy is that if you feel *any* contact in the box you should immediately throw yourself to the ground. You will be rewarded for it far, far, far more often than not.

exactly. if you feel any type of push or other contact in the pro level, going down is the way to go.

 

[Savant]

was coming on here to post about him. Iraola has shown exactly why Bournemouth sacked Gary O'Neil for him. If i were looking for a manager, I'd much rather have him than de Zerbi tbh

exactly. if you feel any type of push or other contact in the pro level, going down is the way to go.

The Iraola/O’Neil thing was one of those rare win/wins

 

[IU Hawks fan]

You can argue that Arsenal have been lucky to have missed out on playing some of the guys, but attributing their success to primarily that luck is pure lunacy.

I mean, look at Chelsea a couple weeks back. Is that game really going that much different if Palmer plays? Could see the argument if they won 1-0, but saying they were lucky to win because he didn't play is absurd. You're essentially arguing he's a 5=6 goal player in that case.

 

[Savant]

You can argue that Arsenal have been lucky to have missed out on playing some of the guys, but attributing their success to primarily that luck is pure lunacy.

Hold on a second. I never said it was the primary reason. I said it was a factor. If you would like to point out somewhere where I said Arsenal only winning because of luck please share. I am simply pointing out that Arsenal, who have also outperformed their xG by over 9 goals, have consistently had randomness on their side by playing teams at the right times; especially during the second half of the season. Doesn’t mean that’s primary reason; but yes this is something that’s happening and it has made things easier for them. Arsenal were the second best team in the league last year, and then they spent nine figures on Declan Rice. That’s why they are where they are at. I’ve said all season; Arsenal isn’t a scrappy underdog - they should be no worse than second.

I mean, look at Chelsea a couple weeks back. Is that game really going that much different if Palmer plays? Could see the argument if they won 1-0, but saying they were lucky to win because he didn't play is absurd. You're essentially arguing he's a 5=6 goal player in that case.

I think Chelsea put up a better fight with Palmer. That wasn’t a 5-0 game at halftime. Chelsea was in it for the first half. Not saying Palmer is an 5/6 goal player (unless there are 5/6 penalty kicks), but he might not have had to be. But again we will never know and that’s fine. My point is Arsenal would much have rather played Chelsea without Palmer, than Chelsea with Palmer. Do you disagree?

And again it’s lucky Palmer didn’t play that game, and was miraculously recovered in time to play at the weekend.

 

[hatterson]

Arsenal's biggest form of "luck" this year is having the best finishing team in regards to G vs xG

They also finished best in that last year after middle of the pack the couple years before that, so maybe it's luck and maybe it's just the team coming together and being good finishers.

 

[Savant]

Arsenal's biggest form of "luck" this year is having the best finishing team in regards to G vs xG

They also finished best in that last year after middle of the pack the couple years before that, so maybe it's luck and maybe it's just the team coming together and being good finishers.

No. Their biggest luck is getting Man City without Rodri and KDB and winning off an accidental deflection

 

[S E P H]

Iraola doing a good job with Bournemouth. Could be an option for West Ham or Brighton in the summer if Moyes and de Zerbi leave.

I don't disagree, but I think I've been more impressed by Glasner and how fast he's made CP look like a relevant club. His club has destroyed Newcastle, destroyed WHU, beat LFC at Anfield, and got two by City. Holy smokes.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Hold on a second. I never said it was the primary reason. I said it was a factor. If you would like to point out somewhere where I said Arsenal only winning because of luck please share.

It's literally the only thing in this post. The whole season comes down to of they're lucky enough or not.

Yeah I mean the rest of this season is just going to be if Arsenal’s luck was enough to triumph vs City’s muscle memory. Both are strong forces. Will see how it goes

 

[Savant]

It's literally the only thing in this post. The whole season comes down to of they're lucky enough or not.

That’s one game. A season is 38 games. Hope this helps.

Yes, it’s lucky to play your top competitor if they are missing their best two players.

I don't disagree, but I think I've been more impressed by Glasner and how fast he's made CP look like a relevant club. His club has destroyed Newcastle, destroyed WHU, beat LFC at Anfield, and got two by City. Holy smokes.

Palace can beat anyone if Olise and Eze are both healthy. It’s just rare that happens.

 

[bluesfan94]

Man City is lucky they played us without Timber and with Martinelli and Partey coming back from injury. Otherwise we would have beat them for the third time this season and we'd be four points clear.

Liverpool, West Ham, and Fulham are lucky they played us without Partey or Timber, or else we would have won those games and, along with the City result, we'd be 12 points clear.

Fulham is also lucky we played them before we integrated Raya. Otherwise we would have beat them, and now we're 14 points clear.

Spurs are lucky we played them without Martinelli. Timber, or Partey, and before Jorginho and Havertz found their role in the squad, or else we'd have beat them. 16 points clear.

Chelsea is lucky Mudryk mishit a cross, or else we would have beat them. 18 points clear.

Newcastle is lucky they played us without competent VAR, or else their goal wouldn't have stood and they'd have been a man down. Add in their luck that Partey, Timber, and Jesus weren't fit and that's another three points. 21 points clear.

In December, Aston Villa was lucky that Timber, Tomiyasu, ESR, and Partey all were not fit. Otherwise we would have beat them. 24 points clear.

Really, looking at it, Arsenal is pretty unlucky not to be 35-0-0. Unluckiest club?

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Man City is lucky they played us without Timber and with Martinelli and Partey coming back from injury. Otherwise we would have beat them for the third time this season and we'd be four points clear.

Please, of all the top teams in the EPL I would say Arsenal have been the most fortunate regarding injuries this season. Arsenal played nothing like a team that wanted a W at all cost at the Etihad.

I would have more sympathy and want them to win if they decided to go toe to toe with Man City at the Etihad but they decided to play prime Moutinho park the bus tactic. They managed to get a tie and for that reason Man City deserve the title even though they were clearly not up to their usual standard this year.

Had Arsenal (who were playing better btw) had more ambition at the Etihad and won, they would 100% deserve that title.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

Please, of all the top teams in the EPL I would say Arsenal have been the most fortunate regarding injuries this season. Arsenal played nothing like a team that wanted a W at all cost at the Etihad.

I would have more sympathy and want them to win if they decided to go toe to toe with Man City at the Etihad but they decided to play prime Moutinho park the bus tactic. They managed to get a tie and for that reason Man City deserve the title even though they were clearly not up to their usual standard this year.

tbf prime Moutinho was generally pretty solid at slicing a defense with a nice through ball, which Arsenal did not endeavour to do in that fixture

 

[bluesfan94]

Please, of all the top teams in the EPL I would say Arsenal have been the most fortunate regarding injuries this season. Arsenal played nothing like a team that wanted a W at all cost at the Etihad.

I would have more sympathy and want them to win if they decided to go toe to toe with Man City at the Etihad but they decided to play prime Moutinho park the bus tactic. They managed to get a tie and for that reason Man City deserve the title even though they were clearly not up to their usual standard this year.

So Man City deserves the title despite picking up a total of one (1) point against Arsenal but Arsenal doesn't deserve it despite picking up a total of four (4) points against Man City? You got it dude!

Anyway, Arsenal has had the following players miss time this season: Timber, Tomiyasu, ZInchenko, Partey, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus, ESR, Vieira, White, Elneny. So really, the other teams were all very lucky we weren't at full strength.

Or is it one of those things where luck somehow only flows one direction?

Please note that much of this is tongue-in-cheek, with the goal of highlighting the absurdity of saying a team is lucky for arbitrary injury reasons and then assuming that the results would necessarily change.

 

[Savant]

Man City is lucky they played us without Timber and with Martinelli and Partey coming back from injury. Otherwise we would have beat them for the third time this season and we'd be four points clear.

Liverpool, West Ham, and Fulham are lucky they played us without Partey or Timber, or else we would have won those games and, along with the City result, we'd be 12 points clear.

Fulham is also lucky we played them before we integrated Raya. Otherwise we would have beat them, and now we're 14 points clear.

Spurs are lucky we played them without Martinelli. Timber, or Partey, and before Jorginho and Havertz found their role in the squad, or else we'd have beat them. 16 points clear.

Chelsea is lucky Mudryk mishit a cross, or else we would have beat them. 18 points clear.

Newcastle is lucky they played us without competent VAR, or else their goal wouldn't have stood and they'd have been a man down. Add in their luck that Partey, Timber, and Jesus weren't fit and that's another three points. 21 points clear.

In December, Aston Villa was lucky that Timber, Tomiyasu, ESR, and Partey all were not fit. Otherwise we would have beat them. 24 points clear.

Really, looking at it, Arsenal is pretty unlucky not to be 35-0-0. Unluckiest club?

Arsenal is lucky Partey isn’t in prison

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

So Man City deserves the title despite picking up a total of one (1) point against Arsenal but Arsenal doesn't deserve it despite picking up a total of four (4) points against Man City? You got it dude!

Anyway, Arsenal has had the following players miss time this season: Timber, Tomiyasu, ZInchenko, Partey, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus, ESR, Vieira, White, Elneny. So really, the other teams were all very lucky we weren't at full strength.

Or is it one of those things where luck somehow only flows one direction?

Please note that much of this is tongue-in-cheek, with the goal of highlighting the absurdity of saying a team is lucky for arbitrary injury reasons and then assuming that the results would necessarily change.

the bolded have played 90%, 88%, and 87% (respectively) of available minutes this season, the underlined has played in almost every match this year, and the italicized don't see the pitch when fit, so this list feels slightly disingenuous.

I get that you're being tongue-in-cheek, but (for all of the "but Saliba!!!" from last season) it is undoubtably true Arsenal have had really really good luck with fitness over the last two years, and their key guys have played a far higher proportion of minutes than the other title contenders.

It should not be even remotely controversial to say that they have been the most fortunate regarding injuries, given that the two other contenders have had, of available minutes (amongst guys who would undoubtedly start if fit):

KdB - 30%
Haaland - 72%
Bernardo - 73%
Stones - 34%

Alisson - 71%
Szobo - 66%
Nunez - 63%
Trent - 61%
Jota - 37%
Konate - 50%

City has had two guaranteed starters miss 2/3 of the season. Liverpool has had two miss 1/2, and multiple others miss 1/3.

City's biggest minute muncher, Julian Alvarez (which greatly surprised me), would be seventh in playing time on Arsenal. That is partially because Rodri missed time due to the world's stupidest suspension. But I think the point rests.

 

[S E P H]

Fulham is also lucky we played them before we integrated Raya. Otherwise we would have beat them, and now we're 14 points clear.

The other teams in the league are lucky that EPL and FA are incompetent and can't tell when balls are out of bounds or not. Incompetence and corruption.