Embracing the Rebuild: Tank Nation, Part II

[AirBriere48]

Lets not celebrate getting the #1 pick between Mackinnon and McDavid/Eichel. Our tank would be considered a failure if we miss out next year. An example of how not to tank.

Ekblad/Reinhart is still going to be a cornerstone piece of our team for the next 10 years. I don't see why we wouldn't celebrate that.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Lets not celebrate getting the #1 pick between Mackinnon and McDavid/Eichel. Our tank would be considered a failure if we miss out next year. An example of how not to tank.

The Isles are going to do our dirty work next year

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Lets not celebrate getting the #1 pick between Mackinnon and McDavid/Eichel. Our tank would be considered a failure if we miss out next year. An example of how not to tank.

Thanks for the advice, but no thanks.

We may get 1st/2nd overall in a draft that isn't super deep, but still contains a couple franchise forwards.

I'm going to celebrate. It's what everyone knew they needed to do, and it looks like they did it.

 

[slip]

As of this moment: (Not factoring in the lottery)

Pick | Percentage Chance
1st|

0%​

2nd|

8%​

3rd|

22%​

4th|

27%​

5th|

25%​

6th|

9%​

7th|

4%​

8th|

2%​

9th|

1%​

10th|

1%​

Chance of top 3 |

30%​

Chance of top 5 |

82%​

Chance of top 10 |

99%​

95%.

At least 75% it's a top 5.

Not bad for guessing off the top of my head.

 

[enthusiast]

As of this moment: (Not factoring in the lottery)

Pick | Percentage Chance
1st|

0%​

2nd|

8%​

3rd|

22%​

4th|

27%​

5th|

25%​

6th|

9%​

7th|

4%​

8th|

2%​

9th|

1%​

10th|

1%​

Chance of top 3 |

30%​

Chance of top 5 |

82%​

Chance of top 10 |

99%​

I appreciate that, thanks.


So realistically, we're looking at either a top-2 and top-5 or conservatively two top-15 picks in 2015

 

[Zman5778]

Dear Team Tank,

I'd just like to formally register my position that Tank Version 2014 has successfully accomplished its target. We are 8 points back of 29th with 25 games to play and the near surety of losing 2-3 of our best players within the next 3 games. We have two games in hand, but we also play a harder and more condensed schedule. Edmonton just bought a pretty darned good goalie, too, who has them playing .500 hockey.

At the risk of effecting bravado, I'm comfortable putting away any bad juju dolls, wiccan potions, or animal sacrifices that have been instrumental in leading us to this position of "strength."

A cataclysmic injury for Edmonton or an unbelievable John Scott hot streak could all change this, of course, so I won't strictly speaking be destroying my pagan tokens (after all, we'll need them for Eichel), but as of today, I formally tender my resignation from Team Tank for the remainder of the 2014 season.

God bless. It's been an honor.

If we don't get Reinhart/Ekblad/Bennett this year

AND

McDavid/Eichel/Barzal next year, I am pulling this post out as to why.

 

[rtfirefly]

At the Olympic break, these are the teams most likely to be the bottom five at the end of the season.

Buffalo 38 pts. 25 games remaining 10 home 15 away
Oilers 47 pts. 22 games remaining 15 home 7 away
Calgary 51 pts. 24 games remaining 12 home 12 away
Florida 51 pts. 24 games remaining 14 home 10 away
Islanders 52 pts. 22 games remaining 11 home 11 away

If the Islanders have the first or second pick, I think they're sure to use it this year.
If they stay in the top (bottom) five, I think they're still likely to use the pick this year.
There's nine points separating the Islanders from New Jersey and Carolina, and they both have games in hand, so this is the probable bottom five as of now. I'm hoping for the Islanders to lose (and defer the pick) and for the three above them to win, since they may well be not much better next year and the draft class is said to be much stronger.

 

[ZZamboni]

My mindset has and will continue to be...

The Sabres will not get a top two pick in 2014 and/or 2015. So if it doesn't happen, I'm not going to verbally jump off the peace bridge, or rage how everything is a total failure in dramatic fashion.

If they do I'll be pleasantly surprised and excited. I don't assume or project Reinhart or any top pick in our future lineup.

 

[Shoey]

The list of 2nd overall picks is hardly something to sneeze at.

 

[couture23]

The list of 2nd overall picks is hardly something to sneeze at.

So many good 2nd overalls since 2000.

 

[Paxon]

The list of 2nd overall picks is hardly something to sneeze at.

Often equal to the first in years like this and the Oiler drafts where there isn't a runaway elite franchise no-brainer.

 

[Zman5778]

One more point for the Oilers tonight.

So, headed into the Olympic break, we're 9 points back with 3 games in hand.

Assuming that current pace holds,
Sabres -- 55 points
Oilers -- 64 points

Calgary and Florida seem truly out of reach, and I feel confident thinking that at WORST, we'll be picking #3.

 

[Zman5778]

The list of 2nd overall picks is hardly something to sneeze at.

Even if you look at the list of 3rd overall picks since 2000:


2013 Jonathan Drouin LW
2012 Alex Galchenyuk C
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau
2010 Erik Gudbranson D
2009 Matt Duchene C
2008 Zach Bogosian D
2007 Kyle Turris C
2006 Jonathan Toews C
2005 Jack Johnson D
2004 Cam Barker D
2003 Nathan Horton C
2002 Jay Bouwmeester D
2001 Alexandr Svitov C
2000 Marian Gaborik LW

Svitov is the only out-and-out bust and Cam Barker is darned near a bust (310 NHL games though). The rest of the list is filled with rock-solid players and borderline superstars. Some of them took longer to percolate than others (Horton, Turris, Bogo, Gudbranson, maybe Huberdeau), but outside of Barker and Svitov, it's a solid list.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

That list isn't bad Zman, but Buffalo needs a Toews or Duchene, which shows to be a 1 out of 7 proposition. Anything less would be a disappointment. OTOH, we're not talking about previous drafts, just 2014, so it's all about Reinhart/Ekblad/Bennett. IMO, that means worst case is Bennett because the other two have solidified their rankings. If he can bring his game up to their level I won't worry, but in the meantime I'll also hope that Buffalo wraps up the 30th spot and a #2 pick at worst.

 

[yahhockey]

To be fair it's safer to say a 2/11 proposition since the jury is still out on the type of players Huberdeua, Galchenyuk and Drouin may become. There may be an argument to be made against Gaborik's all around game or possibly even his leadership but an offensive output similar to his 686 points in 787 games is nothing to sneeze at and would be a helpful addition to the Sabres top six.

 

[brian_griffin]

My mindset has and will continue to be...

The Sabres will not get a top two pick in 2014 and/or 2015. So if it doesn't happen, I'm not going to verbally jump off the peace bridge, or rage how everything is a total failure in dramatic fashion.

If they do I'll be pleasantly surprised and excited. I don't assume or project Reinhart or any top pick in our future lineup.

Proverbally.

Lets not celebrate getting the #1 pick between Mackinnon and McDavid/Eichel. Our tank would be considered a failure if we miss out next year. An example of how not to tank.

Meh. Sabres set out to finish last; we should be proud if/when they meet their goal. It takes a lot of hard work by a lot of people to finish last and still put butts in seats to pay the bills. Also, what pick they actually get, and whom they select with it are separate issues.

 

[allsilverdreams]

wld Reinhart start in2014

if we do draft Reinhart this draft wld he make the team or do u see Patty sending him to a JR. if he makes the team who r his linemates

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I think there is no pressure on him to make the roster, they will have no issues sending him down to juniors. Unlike some I don't think he will automatically be sent down because they don't like 18yr olds, but he will probably have to outplay Larsson to get it. With Ennis Hodgson Larsson starting the season down the middle.

 

[Deevo]

I think there is no pressure on him to make the roster, they will have no issues sending him down to juniors. Unlike some I don't think he will automatically be sent down because they don't like 18yr olds, but he will probably have to outplay Larsson to get it. With Ennis Hodgson Larsson starting the season down the middle.

I think you might see Ennis move to wing when we draft our center.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I think you might see Ennis move to wing when we draft our center.

And also the apparent desire to move Girgensons to C...

Hodgson
Girgensons
Reinhart
Larsson

 

[BananaSquad]

And also the apparent desire to move Girgensons to C...

Hodgson
Girgensons
Reinhart
Larsson

Larsson can play wing as well

 

[haseoke39]

No idea what they do. Praying they keep him down. Tank tank tank.

 

[Heraldic]

No need to rush Reinhart if we draft him (or Bennett), but him back to juniors.

Let Girgensons and Larsson play the center position and get adjusted there - eventhough if they never are our "primary" centers - it would be a really, really valuable asset to have those kind of players who can play at the centrum if needed.

 

[Moskau]

I can't see Reinhart going back to junior. He's already played 3 full seasons and the areas of the game he needs to work on would be better spent in the NHL.

 

[Ruckus007]

No idea what they do. Praying they keep him down. Tank tank tank.

You think having Reinhart on the team next year would appreciably affect where the team ends up in the standings?