Eichel's Goal Pace

[GOALOFSSON]

Eichel has always had a pretty good shot and has started to utilize it better this year. He scored 36g in 68gp, about a 43 goal pace over a full season.

Will he maintain this pace? Improve? Regress?

Let's say for the next six seasons.



Here are all of his goals from this season incase you haven't watched him much. You can see just how much he creates for himself.

Half of this is just him gaining entry with the puck and sniping it off the rush/going hard to the net and beating the goalie, or holding on to the puck until he puts himself into a position to score and snipes it.

Click to read more...

 

[hamzarocks]

High 30s to low 40s in goals and low yo mid 60s in assists

 

[WetcoastOrca]

40-44 goals I’d say if you ignore potential injuries.

 

[filinski77]

	GP	Goals	G/GP	82 pace
2015-16	81	24	0.30	24
2016-17	61	24	0.39	32
2017-18	67	25	0.37	31
2018-19	77	28	0.36	30
2019-20	68	36	0.53	43

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Eichel shot 15.9% this year, and had a career average of like 10% in the 4 years prior. Unless he suddenly realized how to score goals, I would say 35-39 is realistic and also fairly optimistic. There is not much reason to expect 40+ per year to be his new norm.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

	GP	Goals	G/GP	82 pace
2015-16	81	24	0.30	24
2016-17	61	24	0.39	32
2017-18	67	25	0.37	31
2018-19	77	28	0.36	30
2019-20	68	36	0.53	43

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Eichel shot 15.9% this year, and had a career average of like 10% in the 4 years prior. Unless he suddenly realized how to score goals, I would say 35-39 is realistic and also fairly optimistic. There is not much reason to expect 40+ per year to be his new norm.

Eichel has an underrated shot, not top 3 (Ovi, Laine, Matthews etc.) but not far off.

I wouldn't be surprised to see his career shooting % continue to climb.

 

[Merrrlin]

I expect him to be a regular 40-60 guy moving forward on a bad team. Closer to 45-70 if he gets help.

 

[82Ninety42011]

I'll go with high 30's as I believe he's more of a playmaker so he'll get his 50-60 assists as well.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Eichel's mindset is to be a complete producer. He could probably score 50 more regularly if he was more shooting focused. His shot is lethal. But his mentality is to be a good distributer, making teammates more productive which is good since he was such a good playmaker. I would say 35-45 depending on the year. He will probably crack 50 one year in his career, but I would expect he will have a 40-60 ratio of goals to assists based on the type of player he is.

Eichel:

“I don’t care if I’m scoring, if someone else is scoring. …
“I’m not looking at it like, ‘Oh, I have this many (goals),’ whatever. (It’s) however I can try to help this team win, whether it’s scoring goals or setting other guys up.”

 

[CatchyTune]

He has the talent to get 40+ im just wondering if he can reach it with the guys he is playing with.

Put him with 2 legit 1st line talents and he should give you 40+ goals 100+ points.

 

[Regal]

It's always been a bit weird that Eichel's shooting percentage is so low given he has a good shot. His much higher percentage this year could be variance, but it also could be just learning how to better utilize his shot. I've mentioned it before, but MacKinnon's breakout came with a decent increase in shooting percentage after being a low percentage shooter his first few years, but he's actually maintained it. It's unlikely Eichel maintains a nearly 16% shooting percentage, but getting it up into the 12-13 range wouldn't be surprising. I don't think he maintains his pace this year and becomes a regular 40+ goalscorer, but I think he can be in the mid to high 30s more years with a couple in the 40s.

 

[34]

I would think anywhere between 35-40 goals should be average.

Living in Toronto, with buffalo only an hour and 15 minute drive...had the chance to see Eichel play a few times...and I have to say he is insanely skilled. He is good for 40 goals a season.

 

[Mickey Marner]

	GP	Goals	G/GP	82 pace
2015-16	81	24	0.30	24
2016-17	61	24	0.39	32
2017-18	67	25	0.37	31
2018-19	77	28	0.36	30
2019-20	68	36	0.53	43

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Eichel shot 15.9% this year, and had a career average of like 10% in the 4 years prior. Unless he suddenly realized how to score goals, I would say 35-39 is realistic and also fairly optimistic. There is not much reason to expect 40+ per year to be his new norm.

This was my thinking as well. His career shooting percentage at 4 shots per game came out to about 32. I bumped him up to factor in organic improvement, but I don't think he's a 40 goal guy regularly.

 

[67Leafs67]

Definitely an interesting question, and with every player having a different aging curve, as well as gradual changes in overall league scoring, it will be hard to predict with certainty, but I'd imagine a good model could guess pretty close over a sample as long as six seasons.

He's a very skilled player, and despite being primarily a playmaker, is a good goalscorer. The interesting thing is that this year he actually shot a lot less than usual (9.02 shots/60, the lowest of his career), but scored at a way higher rate (1.43 goals/60). In fact, he nearly doubled his ixG (36 over 19.27 ixG), which is probably somewhat shooting talent, but I'd also venture to guess a bit of random luck, as over the rest of his career, he usually outshoots expectations by much smaller margins.

So his 43.4 goal pace from this season is probably not something he will continue to produce I'm guessing. His 15.9% shooting percentage is pretty high above his usual 9-10%. He had 36 goals and 19 primary assists, whereas he is usually pretty much a 50/50 split (with a slight edge towards goalscoring). So maybe he just totally remodeled his game, revamped his shot, and is a different player (and maybe Sabres' fans who watch him more closely can speak to this). If I had to guess though, I think he'll drop more into the ~35 goal range for the next six seasons, obviously with some deviation (probably a season below 30, as well as some like this season, with potentially 40+).

 

[LongWayDown37]

I think Eichel peaks in the high 40s, maybe even 50 - he's that good of a scorer. However, like a lot of centers, I think he soon rounds into the total package where his goals are in the mid-30s with 70+ assists on the average.

 

[lauraP]

	GP	Goals	G/GP	82 pace
2015-16	81	24	0.30	24
2016-17	61	24	0.39	32
2017-18	67	25	0.37	31
2018-19	77	28	0.36	30
2019-20	68	36	0.53	43

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Eichel shot 15.9% this year, and had a career average of like 10% in the 4 years prior. Unless he suddenly realized how to score goals, I would say 35-39 is realistic and also fairly optimistic. There is not much reason to expect 40+ per year to be his new norm.

In interviews last summer. he stated that he wasn't using his shot as much and was thinking more pass first (even though he's had the best shot on the team since coming into the league) and went into the off-season with the goal of well, scoring more goals. so with that in mind i could easily see him scoring 40 goals next year.

 

[abo9]

Eichel's mindset is to be a complete producer. He could probably score 50 more regularly if he was more shooting focused. His shot is lethal. But his mentality is to be a good distributer, making teammates more productive which is good since he was such a good playmaker. I would say 35-45 depending on the year. He will probably crack 50 one year in his career, but I would expect he will have a 40-60 ratio of goals to assists based on the type of player he is.

Eichel:

Oh how I wish the Habs could have had him. He has so much more to offer than being surrounded by mediocrity in Buffalo

 

[Voight]

I expect him to be a regular 40-60 guy moving forward on a bad team. Closer to 45-70 if he gets help.

So he could score more than peak Ovechkin?

Oh how I wish the Habs could have had him. He has so much more to offer than being surrounded by mediocrity in Buffalo

Wouldn't be much better off in Montreal....