Confirmed with Link: [EDM/CGY] James Neal <--> Milan Lucic ($750K Ret.) + Cond. 3rd '20 (Goals Scored Related vs. Looch)

[McVirginOil]

People think Neal’s contract is buyout proof? It’s 3.8 saved for 4 years and 1.9 saved for the next 4. Lucic’s buyout savings only exceed 2M the first year and becomes around and less than 1M for the next 7. Neal is 1000x more buyoutable than Lucic.

 

[McFlyingV]

If the Oilers do buyout Neal next summer... it's another $1.9 million of cap space taken up for 7 years... and add to that the $750,00 on the books for Lucic's retained salary for 3 more years after next summer) as well.

The total cap savings over 7 years would be about $2.2 million buying out Neal next summer rather than just buying out Lucic next summer. Modest difference.

6 years not 7, and 3.35M cap saving for the first 3 years which ultimately is the most crucial time while McDavid and Drai are still under contract.

 

[asa]

Perhaps they see looch as a candidate for LTIR....and that is their out

Just a hunch

So say Lucic goes on LTIR. Does that effect the money we retain? I would imagine it doesnt?

 

[Soundwave]

Lucic had something like a whopping 29 games with no shots on net for the entire game.

Neal had 7.

 

[joestevens29]

I'm probably one of the biggest lucic fans on here. I loved what he was able to do before Edmonton. I believe his teammates loved to have him and I think he still can play a decent role on the NHL

With that being said he's overpriced by 3-4 mil on his current contract. And that nmc is brutal.

You can't just bank on him waiving it for expansion. And for that reason alone I love this trade

 

[Del Preston]

There's no reason to buy out James Neal anyway. I bet there's a few teams that would be interested in him at 50% ($2.875M/season) if it ever got to that point. And he wouldn't have a say in where he would be traded to.

I hope the days of the Oilers giving out NMCs like candy are over. The last idiot who ran the team never realized those clauses should be used as a negotiating tactic to get the salary down.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So say Lucic goes on LTIR. Does that effect the money we retain? I would imagine it doesnt?

It doesn't.

He's been extremely healthy his whole career, he's not gonna go on LTIR.

 

[nexttothemoon]

How is QoT measured though? I'm sure it's based off advanced stats like CF%, when in reality that stat shows McDavid as a worse player than a lot of 3rd liners. I think the truly incredible stat to look at is Lucic's abysmal goal and point production the past two seasons while playing significant minutes with all of McDavid, Drai, and Nuge, while also getting significant top unit PP time, and at worst 2nd PP time. The only season that Neal has seen Lucic like production was when he was playing almost exclusively 3rd line with 30 point line mates, and 2nd PP time.

In fact, the only season Lucic ever produced anything in Edmonton was a complete anomaly season where he scored 50% of his points and goals on the PP as a guy who has never been a good PP producer. All while spending most of the year stapled to McDavid and Draisaitl.

I personally never look at corsi or fenwick or shot stats... when they start awarding wins based on fenwick or corsi or shots... I'll pay attention to them. Until then I always use GF and GA based stats because that's what they actually count on the scoreboard.

Saying that one of the better stats is TOI% QOT as it's more highly correlated with GF%. It seems coaches like using the better players on the roster more often on the ice if possible.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

People think Neal’s contract is buyout proof? It’s 3.8 saved for 4 years and 1.9 saved for the next 4. Lucic’s buyout savings only exceed 2M the first year and becomes around and less than 1M for the next 7. Neal is 1000x more buyoutable than Lucic.

if the Flames buy-out Lucic next summer, they save 500k in 2020-21, 2 mil 2021-22 then 500k in 2022-23
if the Oilers buy-out Neal next year, they save 3.8 mil the next 3 seasons

the buy-outs aren't even close

 

[joestevens29]

If the Oilers do buyout Neal next summer... it's another $1.9 million of cap space taken up for 7 years... and add to that the $750,00 on the books for Lucic's retained salary for 3 more years after next summer) as well.

The total cap savings over 7 years would be about $2.2 million buying out Neal next summer rather than just buying out Lucic next summer. Modest difference.

The thing is lucic doesn't work here. Why not try someone else out before worrying about buy outs?

 

[McVirginOil]

I personally never look at corsi or fenwick or shot stats... when they start awarding wins based on fenwick or corsi or shots... I'll pay attention to them. Until then I always use GF and GA based stats because that's what they actually count on the scoreboard.

Saying that one of the better stats is TOI% QOT as it's more highly correlated with GF%. It seems coaches like using the better players on the roster more often on the ice if possible.

There are win-stats but so far they’re all sort of modeled differently and it’s not as centralized as, say, baseball (but probably will be in the future!)

It’s called GAR or WAR (goals or wins above replacement) I recommend you check it out! It’s neat

 

[Gordian Knot]

Question for those who know better but what if Lucic doesn’t play until his contract is finished and retires? How that affects our cap situation, doesn’t it punish us for front loaded contract?

I like the trade anyway and it gives kind of new start for whole team.

 

[joestevens29]

And this is way better than loui from the nucks

 

[McFlyingV]

I personally never look at corsi or fenwick or shot stats... when they start awarding wins based on fenwick or corsi or shots... I'll pay attention to them. Until then I always use GF and GA based stats because that's what they actually count on the scoreboard.

Saying that one of the better stats is TOI% QOT as it's more highly correlated with GF%. It seems coaches like using the better players on the roster more often on the ice if possible.

Oh it's TOI QOT that you're using.

Either way, my point still stands that Lucic outside of an anomaly PP driven season has produced at a 3rd or 4th line level his entire time in Edmonton despite spending the majority of his minutes with some combination of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nuge. Neal on the other hand has at least been a contributing player in 2 of the last 3 seasons, and the only season he wasn't was when he was saddled to the 3rd line.

 

[nexttothemoon]

6 years not 7, and 3.35M cap saving for the first 3 years which ultimately is the most crucial time while McDavid and Drai are still under contract.

Yep you are right... 6 years... made a mistake when I said 7 years.

So it would have been a $16.5 million buyout for Lucic next summer.

Next summer the total for a Neal buyout + the Lucic retention money will be $13.75 million.

So $2.75 million total cap savings over that 6 year period... ~$458,000 per year on average.

 

[McFlyingV]

Yep you are right... 6 years... made a mistake when I said 7 years.

So it would have been a $16.5 million buyout for Lucic next summer.

Next summer the total for a Neal buyout + the Lucic retention money will be $13.75 million.

So $2.75 million total cap savings over that 6 year period... ~$458,00 per year on average.

It's really the short term relief in 2020-21, 21-22, and 22-23 that the value lies. The Oilers need to improve in the next 4 seasons and a Neal buyout would give them much more cap relief than a Lucic buyout. As was also mentioned, if Neal bounces back you could always look at a suitor in a trade with retention.

For example, a Neal buyout gives us ~3.35M cap space in '20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 seasons. A Lucic buyout would have given us 1.2M, 2.5M, and 1.2M cap space in those seasons.

 

[Senor Catface]

People think Neal’s contract is buyout proof? It’s 3.8 saved for 4 years and 1.9 saved for the next 4. Lucic’s buyout savings only exceed 2M the first year and becomes around and less than 1M for the next 7. Neal is 1000x more buyoutable than Lucic.

“Person” not people

 

[joestevens29]

Where is Jimmi? The season is a success!!!!

 

[duul]

I'd to say that James Neal from my experience is an incredibly nice and laid back guy. Funny as hell. Back in 2014 I went to my buddy's brothers house and he was hanging out with James Neal and Derek Roy. They grew up together (Roy and my friends brother) playing hockey.

Anyway, we spent the night having a few beers and playing mini sticks before going out. Absolutely hilarious guys to be around and it's no surprise guys like McDavid have already taken a liking to him. I imagine he would be a very hard guy to dislike as a person.

Hopefully he can put er together a bit this year and pot 40 for us. The real deal.

 

[McVirginOil]

“Person” not people

I’m not just talking about the boards. A lot of flames fans out there don’t know how to use CapFriendly’s calculator

 

[Skolman]

On his 6th team despite scoring on a regular pace in this league.

Way to completely dismiss the point, can't answer it can you?

You clearly have absolutely no idea how this league works.

Guess what? It's a business.
Dallas traded him early in his career, it happens.
Nashville traded a very solid player for him.
Vegas claimed him in the expansion draft.
Calgary paid big money for him, which Vegas couldn't match.

Again, why are teams trading solid players, paying him big money, and strapping an "A" on his chest?

Please answer that.

I'm surprised I'm wasting my time with you, but I'll play.

 

[Senor Catface]

I’m not just talking about the boards. A lot of flames fans out there don’t know how to use CapFriendly’s calculator

Haha, well in that case "things" not people

 

[LemmyUlanov55]

Wow. Kenny got rid of Lucic, great read while having breakfast.

 

[MessierII]

Question for those who know better but what if Lucic doesn’t play until his contract is finished and retires? How that affects our cap situation, doesn’t it punish us for front loaded contract?

I like the trade anyway and it gives kind of new start for whole team.

There’s no cap recapture. If Lucic retired Calgary would gain 5.25 mil in cap space nothing else would happen.

 

[nexttothemoon]

The thing is lucic doesn't work here. Why not try someone else out before worrying about buy outs?

Yep, that's fair... my point being that you have a player coming in that's an even bigger negative... and effectively hoping for an even bigger bounceback to get back to even.

He could do it... or they buyout Neal at a slight cap savings... which is a likely eventuality as well.