Eberle and RNH

[timekeep]

Hard to imagine that Gagner is only 1 year older than Eberle.

Gagner has always been considered expendable for a bigger forward while Eberle has been considered a core piece. If Gagner outperforms Eberle again next year, do we maybe consider moving Eberle and keeping Gagner?

Not against moving Eberle but the Oilers need to get larger at top six center and winger.

 

[Connor McOilers]

Not against moving Eberle but the Oilers need to get larger at top six center and winger.

Ebs and Gags to the blues for Backes and Stewart...





Top 10 things that will never happen.

 

[timekeep]

Ebs and Gags to the blues for Backes and Stewart...





Top 10 things that will never happen.

A couple of months ago the Blues might have done it.

 

[Replacement*]

Hard to imagine that Gagner is only 1 year older than Eberle.

Gagner has always been considered expendable for a bigger forward while Eberle has been considered a core piece. If Gagner outperforms Eberle again next year, do we maybe consider moving Eberle and keeping Gagner?

In infinite wisdom the Oilers just ensured that yet another longterm contract is essentially untradeable. This is what gets me. You just know they'll nickel and dime Gagner scoffing at as much as 5M through probably a long and arduous negotiation but Eberles agent got what he wanted immediately because, well, 6M even steven sounded good at the time for both even though one player is light years more valuable.

 

[Replacement*]

A couple of months ago the Blues might have done it.

Never would that be on the menu.

 

[Oiler11]

As far as I know, Eberle isn't injured

He has been playing through a hand injury.

 

[Connor McOilers]

Never would that be on the menu.

Perhaps if we included our first rounder?
i just proposed that trade jokingly after the way they manhandled us, but as sad as it would be to lose those two guys we would look great with Backes and Stewart... Maybe other teams are starting to feel bad for us now and will cut us a good deal? lol

 

[Replacement*]

He has been playing through a hand injury.

Which didn't impact him at all in a recent shootout when he snapped the puck so hard the goalie didn't move on it. The problem with Eberle is clear, not getting into money areas consistently enough. Of course on a shootout nobody is around to slam him into the middle of next week.

Eberle more than anything is a little rattled at the NHL heavy metal thrown at him these days. Something he has to man up to and get over. He will. But I imagine its a shock to the system when hockey players hit like this.

Proverbial welcome to the NHL sometimes arrives later than it should.

 

[Replacement*]

Perhaps if we included our first rounder?
i just proposed that trade jokingly after the way they manhandled us, but as sad as it would be to lose those two guys we would look great with Backes and Stewart... Maybe other teams are starting to feel bad for us now and will cut us a good deal? lol

Its all good.

Except in the dressingroom.

 

[Oiler11]

Which didn't impact him at all in a recent shootout when he snapped the puck so hard the goalie didn't move on it. The problem with Eberle is clear, not getting into money areas consistently enough. Of course on a shootout nobody is around to slam him into the middle of next week.

Eberle more than anything is a little rattled at the NHL heavy metal thrown at him these days. Something he has to man up to and get over. He will. But I imagine its a shock to the system when hockey players hit like this.

Proverbial welcome to the NHL sometimes arrives later than it should.

Seriously? You think teams *just* this season started playing the body on him? He's been worked over since he got here, and he still managed nearly a PPG last year.

I've seen him miss more glorious in the slot chances in the last 4 weeks than I have in his entire career. His timing and accuracy is off, I'm more willing to attribute that to a hand injury than a sudden dramatic increase of physical play against him (or his aversion to it). All those misses are playing with his head and confidence; he's never been this snake-bitten before, in any league he has played in.

Which is why it might be best to just pull him, let him get back to 100% and get a fresh start.

 

[jbean]

I hope to bump this thread in 3-4 years and point out some of the things people are saying about Eberle. He is having an off year, but it is ridiculous to think that he has already peaked. This thread is a classic example of what have you done for me lately. 6 months ago some thought Gagner was at best a 50 pt guy and at worst a bust. Look at where he is now. Eberle simply isn't going to be the player he is at this precise moment for the next decade. We also have no idea how much his finger or other injuries are bothering him. I know it's the AHL, but he was the best player in that league when the competition was much better than normal and scored at a ridiculous pace. Show some patience, he is in a rut and he will get out of it.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

I hope to bump this thread in 3-4 years and point out some of the things people are saying about Eberle. He is having an off year, but it is ridiculous to think that he has already peaked. This thread is a classic example of what have you done for me lately. 6 months ago some thought Gagner was at best a 50 pt guy and at worst a bust. Look at where he is now. Eberle simply isn't going to be the player he is at this precise moment for the next decade. We also have no idea how much his finger or other injuries are bothering him. I know it's the AHL, but he was the best player in that league when the competition was much better than normal and scored at a ridiculous pace. Show some patience, he is in a rut and he will get out of it.

Eberle's like 8 months younger than Gagner - obviously this isn't how well he'll be for the rest of his career, but I think we've seen him peak with that 74 points last year.

Sometimes players peak early - look at Hemsky. He put up 77 points as a 22 year old and never reached that plateau again.

Once teams figure out to stop a player, it makes it incredibly hard for them to put up the same numbers. That's why the greatest players - like Crosby, Datsyuk, Malkin - have such dynamic packages that there is no one way to stop them.

For Hemsky, it was about taking the body and not worrying about the shot.

For Eberle, it's taking away space and playing the body.

These players are extremely talented, but have only so many ways of being productive on the ice. Once it's taken away, they kind of slip into obscurity.

Ebs will be a 65-70 point threat for the rest of his career - but I don't see him as more than that.

But I also see him as someone who's production will forever be tied to who he's playing with. If Nuge bounces back with a big season next year, it's inevitably going to result in more points for Eberle. I don't think you can build a line around Eberle, but you can around guys like Hall and RNH. He's the perfect complement for guys like that. Like Prospal was for Lecavalier/St.Louis/Richards.

 

[jbean]

You honestly believe Eberle has peaked at 74 points? What did Patrick Sharp do from age 22 when he was scoring at a roughly 0.5 PPG pace in the AHL and then at the age of 26 scored 36 goals in the NHL? Sure he was a late bloomer, but why is Eberle "figured out" and unable to improve? Your example of a great dynamic player in Datsyuk is a guy who was sheltered by one of the best teams of all time and was much older than Eberle before he had success. Why were these players able to improve but Eberle peaked at age 21? How many players in NHL history had their best season at age 21? Isn't there also a chance that Eberle will be the kind of player that improves with time? Many of the best in the game are 28-32 years old and Eberle is ages way from that stage of his career.

edit: Also Hemsky put up his most amount of points at age 22 but you are wrong if you think that is when he peaked. In 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 he was at his peak but was devastated by injuries and only got to play 69 games over that span. Who knows what kind of player he could've been if he didn't have such awful set backs with his health. He was playing his best hockey at roughly ages 26-27 like most players. Your argument that Eberle has little room to improve doesn't convince me much at all, especially given how terrible the Oilers have been this year.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

You honestly believe Eberle has peaked at 74 points? What did Patrick Sharp do from age 22 when he was scoring at a roughly 0.5 PPG pace in the AHL and then at the age of 26 scored 36 goals in the NHL? Sure he was a late bloomer, but why is Eberle "figured out" and unable to improve? Your example of a great dynamic player in Datsyuk is a guy who was sheltered by one of the best teams of all time and was much older than Eberle before he had success. Why were these players able to improve but Eberle peaked at age 21? How many players in NHL history had their best season at age 21? Isn't there also a chance that Eberle will be the kind of player that improves with time? Many of the best in the game are 28-32 years old and Eberle is ages way from that stage of his career.

edit: Also Hemsky put up his most amount of points at age 22 but you are wrong if you think that is when he peaked. In 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 he was at his peak but was devastated by injuries and only got to play 69 games over that span. Who knows what kind of player he could've been if he didn't have such awful set backs with his health. He was playing his best hockey at roughly ages 26-27 like most players. Your argument that Eberle has little room to improve doesn't convince me much at all, especially given how terrible the Oilers have been this year.

Hemsky (22) - 77pts
Ovechkin (22) - 65g, 112p
E.Staal (21) - 45g, 100p
Backstrom (22) - 33g, 101p

Just some examples.

The possibility totally exists for Eberle to get better - it's inevitable that he does. But when I say that I mean his defensive game, etc. Basically stuff that's tangible to the eyes, but not necessarily numbers.

I don't think he has much "growth" to gain physically. Unlike Gagner, he never was too slow/weak as a 20-21 year old. His body hasn't really changed over the past couple years, nor does it really have to. Gagner, on the other hand, has gotten much stronger/quicker, which was necessary given that he was essentially a pre-pubescent player for the first 5 years of his career.

The Gagner we're seeing now and the Eberle we're seeing now are likely the same players we're going to see over the next 10 years. Not too bad of a thing when they're near-point/game players. Just sucks when you're committing $6M+ to them long-term.

I don't think Eberle will get another chance to produce ridiculous numbers offensively unless this team becomes a reckless run-and-gun team again.

 

[Connor McOilers]

Personally I think Eberle is better than he's playing right now, but just for the sake of speculation lets say he did peak and is destined to be a 60-70 point guy from here on out...


Now ask yourselves, is that really a bad thing? Stealing a guy with the 22nd pick who has a knack for scoring clutch goals and can be counted on for 60-70 points a year? Personally I'd want him on my team any day.

And assuming the three 1st overalls can put up the same numbers (though really it should be higher), and you've got a ridiculous amount of offence even if some of them didn't score as much as we hoped. In my opinion upgrading the players around them will give them the best chance of reaching their potentials, I know it's always scary when a highly touted player under preforms early in his career but give them time to develop and a supporting cast and all of the fab 5 kids should be golden.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Eberle is starting to look a little too much like Hemsky lately.

RNH had better be hurt now or he is going to have a hard time being a #1 center. Hopefully he packs on some pounds and gets his shoulder repaired. I think he should get surgery soon if it is that much of a problem. But the Oilers don't like to be honest about injuries.

Schultz, benefited from playing a large role in OKC at the start of the season, the length of season is showing on him lately too. Really he should not have been expected to be a first pairing dman yet.

As a rookie, he shouldn't even have been expected to be a consistent top-4 D-man yet. I think management thought otherwise...

 

[Oiler11]

As a rookie, he shouldn't even have been expected to be a consistent top-4 D-man yet. I think management thought otherwise...

That's a little revisionist. We all thought he was top-4 based on his play in the AHL and his first few weeks here. He's petered out, for sure, but let's not deny he took BOTH leagues by storm.

 

[McDeepika]

In infinite wisdom the Oilers just ensured that yet another longterm contract is essentially untradeable. This is what gets me. You just know they'll nickel and dime Gagner scoffing at as much as 5M through probably a long and arduous negotiation but Eberles agent got what he wanted immediately because, well, 6M even steven sounded good at the time for both even though one player is light years more valuable.

I find it strange how differently the organization has handled both players myself.

Gagner was thrown into the deep end from day 1. He had to play all kinds of minutes with all kinds of linemates (many of whom are/were anchors). Eberle on the other hand got prime offensive minutes with great line-mates. I don't think the organization ever appreciated what they had with Gagner. I know I sure didn't.

I love Eberle, but he was never on Hall's level and should not have been given the same contract.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

I find it strange how differently the organization has handled both players myself.

Gagner was thrown into the deep end from day 1. He had to play all kinds of minutes with all kinds of linemates (many of whom are/were anchors). Eberle on the other hand got prime offensive minutes with great line-mates. I don't think the organization ever appreciated what they had with Gagner. I know I sure didn't.

I love Eberle, but he was never on Hall's level and should not have been given the same contract.

This. Basically, you shouldn't be giving 6M+ to anyone you can't build a line around. So far, we have 2 players that fit that mould - RNH/Hall. This isn't based on recent performances, but just watching these players play. It's obvious you build around these guys on their own lines.

Eberle is an elite complementary player. You don't build a line around him, because there's no way he performs if he's the best player on his line.

It's a similar situation to what's happening in Philadelphia. Briere and Giroux are 2 guys to build lines round. Voracek leads that team in scoring, but it's clear who's driving the play on their first 2 lines. Giroux and Briere are appropriately being paid as the 2 highest paid forwards on the team.

Gagner to a lesser extent than Hall/RNH is driving his own line - quite impressively I must add. He's getting near-point/game production carrying MPS and a rookie. Another guy to build around. 4-5M with 2.5-3M wingers to make a formidable 3rd scoring line (if that's the direction we want to go in).

Chicago has 3 players to build lines around. Hossa, Toews, and Kane. They're lucky enough to get an opportunity to put 2 of them together (Hossa/Toews) such that the 3rd member of that top line doesn't really matter.

Kane basically produces offense regardless of who's on his line - so they saddle him with defensive players like Bolland to help make that line more complete.

Gagner-Hall would be an interesting duo on the top line heading forward. 2 guys with great ability to carry lines on their own that could work together to make the 3rd winger on that line (be it Yak/MPS/UFA) inconsequential to their production.

RNH could then handle his own line (with Ebs/Yak) and produce in a similar manner.

This is what Kruger was talking about early on in the season about having "duo's" of players that stick together, while a range of wingers moves up and down the lineup based on whatever chemistry is working.

 

[KarmaPolice]

That's a little revisionist. We all thought he was top-4 based on his play in the AHL and his first few weeks here. He's petered out, for sure, but let's not deny he took BOTH leagues by storm.

People thinking he would transition smoothly from the NCAA to a dependable top-4 guy in his rookie season in the NHL were fooling themselves. And sure, he was great in the AHL (and so was Ebs...), but that was for 1/3 of a season against much weaker competition. That said, along with Hall, he's one that I'm least worried about. I think he'll be a fantastic offensive defenseman, but it'll probably take another season or two.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

People thinking he would transition smoothly from the NCAA to a dependable top-4 guy in his rookie season in the NHL were fooling themselves. And sure, he was great in the AHL (and so was Ebs...), but that was for 1/3 of a season against much weaker competition. That said, along with Hall, he's one that I'm least worried about. I think he'll be a fantastic offensive defenseman, but it'll probably take another season or two.

Agreed. From watching him in the AHL it was clear that his offense was on another level. His PP production basically carried over, but after that there's nothing to write home about.

At even strength he's a liability with top-4 responsibility. He can neither move the puck out of the zone with any consistency or assertiveness, nor can he defend in his zone with any efficacy.

At this point he's an average bottom-pairing defenseman at even-strength with extra-ordinary powerplay point production abilities.

Like I said in another thread (with heavy criticism) - he's basically at this point a Joe Corvo for us.

I feel if he can develop an effective offensive game at ES and become even an average defender - then the comparisons to guys like Tomas Kaberle and Christian Ehrhoff can begin. At the very best, if he can become just an undeniable ES force offensively (like he was in the AHL) - a Dan Boyle type.

 

[McDeepika]

This. Basically, you shouldn't be giving 6M+ to anyone you can't build a line around. So far, we have 2 players that fit that mould - RNH/Hall. This isn't based on recent performances, but just watching these players play. It's obvious you build around these guys on their own lines.

Eberle is an elite complementary player. You don't build a line around him, because there's no way he performs if he's the best player on his line.

It's a similar situation to what's happening in Philadelphia. Briere and Giroux are 2 guys to build lines round. Voracek leads that team in scoring, but it's clear who's driving the play on their first 2 lines. Giroux and Briere are appropriately being paid as the 2 highest paid forwards on the team.

Gagner to a lesser extent than Hall/RNH is driving his own line - quite impressively I must add. He's getting near-point/game production carrying MPS and a rookie. Another guy to build around. 4-5M with 2.5-3M wingers to make a formidable 3rd scoring line (if that's the direction we want to go in).

Chicago has 3 players to build lines around. Hossa, Toews, and Kane. They're lucky enough to get an opportunity to put 2 of them together (Hossa/Toews) such that the 3rd member of that top line doesn't really matter.

Kane basically produces offense regardless of who's on his line - so they saddle him with defensive players like Bolland to help make that line more complete.

Gagner-Hall would be an interesting duo on the top line heading forward. 2 guys with great ability to carry lines on their own that could work together to make the 3rd winger on that line (be it Yak/MPS/UFA) inconsequential to their production.

RNH could then handle his own line (with Ebs/Yak) and produce in a similar manner.

This is what Kruger was talking about early on in the season about having "duo's" of players that stick together, while a range of wingers moves up and down the lineup based on whatever chemistry is working.

It's funny you say that because that is exactly how I describe Eberle. He's an elite complimentary player. He can play on any kind of scoring line and make it better. He's the perfect player to pair with an elite center.

But like you say, you can't build a line around him. Not yet anyways. Maybe if he gets a little bit faster he will get to that level.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Agreed. From watching him in the AHL it was clear that his offense was on another level. His PP production basically carried over, but after that there's nothing to write home about.

At even strength he's a liability with top-4 responsibility. He can neither move the puck out of the zone with any consistency or assertiveness, nor can he defend in his zone with any efficacy.

At this point he's an average bottom-pairing defenseman at even-strength with extra-ordinary powerplay point production abilities.

Like I said in another thread (with heavy criticism) - he's basically at this point a Joe Corvo for us.

I feel if he can develop an effective offensive game at ES and become even an average defender - then the comparisons to guys like Tomas Kaberle and Christian Ehrhoff can begin. At the very best, if he can become just an undeniable ES force offensively (like he was in the AHL) - a Dan Boyle type.

He's a rookie. You brought up Gudbranson in another thread, and about how he's getting eaten alive. So was Hedman for his first 2-3 seasons. Defenseman take time to develop, and he'll get there, I think. I don't think he'll ever have a Pronger or Lidstrom-like shutdown game, but he has the skill set to at least become someone who can keep his head above water at EV, and get the majority of his points on the PP, and being a damn good PP QB at that. I'm not a clairvoyant, so we'll see; but that's my opinion.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

It's funny you say that because that is exactly how I describe Eberle. He's an elite complimentary player. He can play on any kind of scoring line and make it better. He's the perfect player to pair with an elite center.

But like you say, you can't build a line around him. Not yet anyways. Maybe if he gets a little bit faster he will get to that level.

There've been plenty of players like this on many successful teams - but none of which that got more than 4-5M.

Chris Kunitz, Vinny Prospal, Ray Whitney, Martin Straka, Brad Marchand - these kind of guys make 3-4M tops in the league, and often move around a lot too, because they boost their values playing with star players, and teams are quick to recognize who's actually driving the boat on these lines.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

He's a rookie. You brought up Gudbranson in another thread, and about how he's getting eaten alive. So was Hedman for his first 2-3 seasons. Defenseman take time to develop, and he'll get there, I think. I don't think he'll ever have a Pronger or Lidstrom-like shutdown game, but he has the skill set to at least become someone who can keep his head above water at EV, and get the majority of his points on the PP, and being a damn good PP QB at that. I'm not a clairvoyant, so we'll see; but that's my opinion.

I agree 100% with you - and there's nothing wrong with him topping out like that if he's someone that came to us for absolutely free.

Guys like Kaberle and Ehrhoff have roles on good teams - as long as they're not playing above their heads at even strength.

Kaberle was a second pairing defenseman paired with defensively-capable Dmitri Yushkevich on the competitive Leafs teams of the early-2000's and shone in that role. Big point producer BOTH at ES and PP, and never looked out of place as a defender.

Ehrhoff was a 2nd pairing defenseman for Vancouver in it's 1-2 years atop the League standings. He was sheltered on the second pairing while Hamhuis-Bieksa-Edler saw the heavier minutes. His biggest forte was point production and he shone in that role without getting too heavily exposed defensively.

Schultz is going to be the perfect offensive component to our 2nd pairing IMO - important piece to keep around. But unless we do something to address our top pairing we're in trouble.