Speculation: Dylan Larkin's Next Contract

[hyduK]

Because I see the Red Wings missing the playoffs for a long time and think they'll take their rebuild slow. Larkin holds lots of value in which they could use that for a much stronger rebuild down the line. Detroit will be a team that takes garbage contracts for some time to fill cap space around the time Zetterberg retires.

We already have garbage contracts lol. We certainly won't be taking anymore. Or shouldn't be, at least.

Larkin is 21, he's still a few years away from his true prime. There's really no reason why we couldn't be in the playoff race around that time. Coincidentally that's also around the time where most of our garbage contracts will be gone.

Detroit is a bad team, yes. One thing we do have is a good base of wingers and forward depth in general. We do probably need at least one more "elite" talent piece up front, which should be attainable in one of the next few drafts where we will surely be in lottery contention.

The other obvious hole is our defense, which is really one big hole. I think this one will take a bit more luck to fix, but it's very possible we do get lucky in the next few drafts and get the piece we need. One elite d-man can change the look of your dcore entirely. Add a couple players from smart signings/trades (we will have to trade away some forwards eventually), and you're in good shape. Goalies are easy to find. Like really, if Detroit somehow won the lottery this year, we would suddenly be in much much better shape.

Putting your eggs in the lottery basket isn't a great strategy obviously, it relies on luck. But what would we be trading Larkin for? Futures/draft picks? Also some luck involved there. I don't see how we get value for him in a trade.

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

Pay him accordingly. He'll be the next C once Hank hangs them up.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think he gets a similar deal to Monahan and MacKinnon.

 

[DRW204]

I mean if Larkin is the guy to build around throughout each and every year up until the rebuild is over, when he could be almost 30 or older, then I say keep him. But if he can produce for a contender that could use him, you guys could gets lots out of him for what he can bring. If Detroit did give him a big contract, then down the line (say three years in) trade him and retain half his salary they could get so... much out of him.

If Detroit trades Larkin to a contender the chances of finding another Larkin (essential a 2C floor, potential 1c) will be very low. They move Larkin and they'll essentially looking for another one. He's 21, local boy, and oozes potential/leadership qualities. There is 0 chance of Larkin being traded. I dont understand your opening sentence, are you saying the rebuild will be over by them time he is almost 30?

 

[Connor McConnor]

Larkin is one of the most underrated players this season. Truly remarkable what he's done on that bad of a team. Carries them offensively and defensively. The thing I like the most is he adapted his game after purely relying on speed as a rookie.

Based on his age and production early in his career, I would predict something similar to Pasta's 6 x 6.5ish.

 

[StreetHawk]

7x7

Something like that

Think he benefits with the big bump in the cap, along with being a C than compared to Pasternak and ehlers who signed last off season.

The bump in the cap will mean this coming years crop of young rfa will get more than those signed last a season.

 

[dragonballgtz]

I would hope they would be able to sign him long term to at most $7M cap hit. Then just structure his contract so his salary goes up every year.

But if I was Larkin, I would want a 2 year deal then go for more after that

 

[stl76]

I think the only way the AAV is ~6M is if the term is 8 years, and even then you're probably looking at closer to 6.5-6.75M. For 6 or 7 years, I think you're looking at closer to 7+M. Comparable deals like Barkov or MacKinnon were signed a couple years ago now.

If you want to get a better sense of comparison with the Barkov/MacKinnon deals, I'd say look at the % of cap they were then apply that to the new salary cap, then add a bit on top. For better or for worse, the cap is going up and the McDavid/Draisaitl deals changed the market a bit IMO.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Because I see the Red Wings missing the playoffs for a long time and think they'll take their rebuild slow. Larkin holds lots of value in which they could use that for a much stronger rebuild down the line. Detroit will be a team that takes garbage contracts for some time to fill cap space around the time Zetterberg retires.

So again, they should trade their 21 year old #1C for draft picks that are 2-3 years younger than him who are unlikely to end up as Good? Once again, explain how that makes sense?

You realize that at 21 the wings have about 12 years of his prime left, right?

 

[obey86]

I mean if Larkin is the guy to build around throughout each and every year up until the rebuild is over, when he could be almost 30 or older, then I say keep him. But if he can produce for a contender that could use him, you guys could gets lots out of him for what he can bring. If Detroit did give him a big contract, then down the line (say three years in) trade him and retain half his salary they could get so... much out of him.

He's 21, not 27.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

He's 21, not 27.

I knew that... would you come to know that I always think about how player's primes shouldn't be wasted, such as Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle, who haven't made the playoffs for 7+ seasons; yes I am aware Larkin has played some playoff games. Detroit will be missing for a while but at most I could see them hitting a few wild card spots down the line of the rebuild.

But if I'm wrong about considering a Larkin trade, I'm wrong. I guess he could be the star and future captain of the Red Wings down the long stretch of the rebuild. Sort of like how Winnipeg had Thomas Steen or Arizona had Shane Doan.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I mean if Larkin is the guy to build around throughout each and every year up until the rebuild is over, when he could be almost 30 or older, then I say keep him. But if he can produce for a contender that could use him, you guys could gets lots out of him for what he can bring. If Detroit did give him a big contract, then down the line (say three years in) trade him and retain half his salary they could get so... much out of him.

This literally makes no sense. If you're trading away every 21 year old star because you're not ready to be a contender... You're never gonna be a contender.

 

[Reddwit]

Wouldn’t give two f***s if this kid ends up costing Detroit $7.5M for the next 8 years. He’s worth it. Potential Bergeron type.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The dude has to be trolling lol. Nobody's that ignorant.

 

[Faltorvo]

Ball park Ehlers $ 6m per same for Nylander

IDK if many know this but Ehlers deal kicks in the same season as those 2.

 

[Pavels Dog]

6-8 years at 5-7 million.

Because I see the Red Wings missing the playoffs for a long time and think they'll take their rebuild slow. Larkin holds lots of value in which they could use that for a much stronger rebuild down the line. Detroit will be a team that takes garbage contracts for some time to fill cap space around the time Zetterberg retires.

I mean they could sign him for 8 years and likely have 8 years where he is either part of making the team successful again or is a great trade chip to have if it was to come to that. Trading him now would be insanity on so many levels.

 

[BlueBaron]

6mil x8. That would be good for both sides.