Duncan Keith 2018-19 expectations

[Pez68]

Seabrook is one of the worst defensemen I have ever seen at protecting himself, and bracing for a hit. He routinely gets rocked, mostly because he's never aware that the hit is even coming. It's unbelievable, really. Seems to happen every other game.

 

[TheDoorDoctor]

Seabrook is one of the worst defensemen I have ever seen at protecting himself, and bracing for a hit. He routinely gets rocked, mostly because he's never aware that the hit is even coming. It's unbelievable, really. Seems to happen every other game.

For Sure! Keith is a monster but its difficult to be amazing when the next best D-man is a #4... (heres hoping Forsling develops in the right direction)

 

[SotasicA]

#2 is on a decline, so I expect him to once again be slightly worse than the previous season, when he already sucked. At least compared to past glory.

 

[LordKOTL]

#2 is on a decline, so I expect him to once again be slightly worse than the previous season, when he already sucked. At least compared to past glory.

The only way I see Keith worse is if Q continues to misplay him. Keith needs less minutes and he needs to be off the PP...permanently. I think Keith rebounds a bit on his own simply because his numbers from last season seem way more "bad fluke" than the new norm for him. However, I don't think he rebounds to anything spectacular--solid, but not spectacular. Think his 2012 play after 2011. He wasn't a Norris Frontrunner (not until 2013), but he wasn't the turnover machine he was in 2011.

 

[ClydeLee]

I dont see Keith being off the PP as something happening but I think how he was used early in last season is how he will be used again.

I'm not thinking Gus or Forsling are gonna win over Q as PP point players over Keith but with both Manning, forsling, and some prospects with tiny experience now in Hilman/Dahlstrom I don't think Q will put Keith on the heavy D focused pair he was late last year playing more with Murphy. So I dont think he will have that awful +/- like he gained the later half of last year

 

[LordKOTL]

I dont see Keith being off the PP as something happening but I think how he was used early in last season is how he will be used again.

I'm not thinking Gus or Forsling are gonna win over Q as PP point players over Keith but with both Manning, forsling, and some prospects with tiny experience now in Hilman/Dahlstrom I don't think Q will put Keith on the heavy D focused pair he was late last year playing more with Murphy. So I dont think he will have that awful +/- like he gained the later half of last year

His +/- was relatively awful at *all* points last year. Sure, it took a nosedive after Kempny was traded to the likes of which a Chicago D-man hasn't done since Slap Shot debuted in the theaters, but at almost any given point last season his +/- was not only near dead last on the entire team, but also worse than all the other d-men *combined* at the same given moment. That can't be blamed on his partner if he was collectively worse than everyone he could have possibly be partnered with.

That being said the issue with Keith on the PP is firmly on Q. Q using him there is like Wile E. Coyote buying Acme™ products--you know it's going to backfire. That will be one of many reasons I think Q ends up getting canned. I think once Keith's role/responsibility comes more in-line with his age and ability he does improve--be it by Q's hand or by whoever supersedes Q.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

His +/- was relatively awful at *all* points last year. Sure, it took a nosedive after Kempny was traded to the likes of which a Chicago D-man hasn't done since Slap Shot debuted in the theaters, but at almost any given point last season his +/- was not only near dead last on the entire team, but also worse than all the other d-men *combined* at the same given moment. That can't be blamed on his partner if he was collectively worse than everyone he could have possibly be partnered with.

That being said the issue with Keith on the PP is firmly on Q. Q using him there is like Wile E. Coyote buying Acme™ products--you know it's going to backfire. That will be one of many reasons I think Q ends up getting canned. I think once Keith's role/responsibility comes more in-line with his age and ability he does improve--be it by Q's hand or by whoever supersedes Q.

Not that +/- really matters, but Keith was a -24 after the all star break half (final 33 games) compared to a -5 the 1st 49 games.

I think it's pretty realistic to expect Keith to bounce back a bit this year as he was truly awful once the Hawks were just playing out the string but much better when the Hawks were playing for something.

 

[coolhand]

I certainly hope he doesn't take another step back this year. Hard to believe he could be worse than last year. I think he takes a step forward this season, back to respectable but not great. +/- can be deceiving as sometimes the d-man plays it right but the forwards don't back check or turn it over at the blue line. What worries me about Keith is his hesitation to turn and burn on a dump in and in taking a shot. Seems he's always settling down the puck before he shoots.

 

[LordKOTL]

Not that +/- really matters, but Keith was a -24 after the all star break half (final 33 games) compared to a -5 the 1st 49 games.

I think it's pretty realistic to expect Keith to bounce back a bit this year as he was truly awful once the Hawks were just playing out the string but much better when the Hawks were playing for something.

He was -7 when Crawford went down, and at that point only Franson, at -3 was a defender in the negative. Contrasting that Murph & Seabs were +8 at that point and Kempny was +9. If Keith was drawing all of the toughest match-ups as the explanation for his +/- someone (or a combination of someones) other than him had to be getting dinged just as much as him on the negative side at even strength. The numbers don't mete that out even within the usual deviation. That's mainly why I used "relative" At almost every given point of the season, his numbers compared to all the other D-men were worse, and in many cases, worse than the rest combined at the respective point in the season.

It was just a bad year for him--like 2006 and 2011...just...moreso. I expect him to bounce back as well as long as Q doesn't do something stupid with him, but in contrast given his age I'm not expecting another Norris-level season. Best case I think is a Hossa-like 2016-to-2017 bounceback. I think though even if Keith reverts to a reasonable level with respect to his age and whatnot the D is still a major issue - there's too much unproven youth, age is a factor at the top end, and in the past 4 seasons the shot suppression (to be fair, includes puck possession and defense from the FWDs, not just blueliners) has been the worst the 'hawks have seen since Patrick Kane was born.

 

[Jeffrey Lebowski]

I think Keith could rebound in a big way with proper usage and toi. He still skates really well, and reads the game well. He just needs to be put back into his element: he needs to be able to take risks and trust his partner defensively.

He also needs forwards who can find the soft areas to accept passes in the neutral zone. When Dunc is pressured to play a certain style or constrict his style, he forces plays. Usually it ends bad and he gets flustered.

Ultimately, i think he slightly improves... All things considered (mostly regarding Qs decisions). But if he bounces back, he could have another good few years. If not, he's going to trend downward from here on out. Just my opinion.

 

[LordKOTL]

I think Keith could rebound in a big way with proper usage and toi. He still skates really well, and reads the game well. He just needs to be put back into his element: he needs to be able to take risks and trust his partner defensively.

He also needs forwards who can find the soft areas to accept passes in the neutral zone. When Dunc is pressured to play a certain style or constrict his style, he forces plays. Usually it ends bad and he gets flustered.

Ultimately, i think he slightly improves... All things considered (mostly regarding Qs decisions). But if he bounces back, he could have another good few years. If not, he's going to trend downward from here on out. Just my opinion.

I think crux of Duncs issues from the Nashville series in 2017 until now are his own. He's making bad decisions in moving the puck. His coverage is shoddy because it looks like he's trying to over-cover for his partner instead of playing his gap, which means that the goalie has to compensate for 2 guys out of position instead of 1. Lack of D from his partners complicates the issue, plus the FWDs not making an outlet pass available--as you mentioned.

A big thing that would help Keith, aside form Q stopping his Wile E Coyote-level exercises in futility with this deployment of all players, is to focus on his own. Focus on his coverage and not try to do too much--especially if Crawford is back. Crawford has more than proven that he can bail out bad defense since his bad 2012 year so let Crawford handle a rookie/journeyman misplaying it and Keith should stay tight to his assignment. In essence--he shouldn't try to do too much and be the hero. If he keeps it simple on the ice--covers his man tighter than the anatomy of waterfowl, and lets the goalie compensate for the lack of his partner it would help his game a lot.

Conditioning-wise I'm not worried about Keith. He's a lot like Hossa or Kane in that regard--he's always ready physically for the opening puck drop.

I think the most major issue with Keith is Q. If Q alters his gameplan to fit the players we got, or we get a coach who's gameplan fits the players we got I think we see him rebound very well. But right now Q's playing Keith like it's 2010, 2013, or the 2015 playoffs...and that's not what Keith is anymore. Thus I think we see a rebound to a level where he's not a liability, but not stalwart, either.

A strong stay-at-home D partner would help him a ton, and that's why Joker should not play with him--Joker's game is too similar They both drive transition and are both the O-biased part of the paring. IMHO Joker and Keith paired would be a lot like Leddy and Keith paired.

 

[ClydeLee]

I think crux of Duncs issues from the Nashville series in 2017 until now are his own. He's making bad decisions in moving the puck. His coverage is shoddy because it looks like he's trying to over-cover for his partner instead of playing his gap, which means that the goalie has to compensate for 2 guys out of position instead of 1. Lack of D from his partners complicates the issue, plus the FWDs not making an outlet pass available--as you mentioned.

A big thing that would help Keith, aside form Q stopping his Wile E Coyote-level exercises in futility with this deployment of all players, is to focus on his own. Focus on his coverage and not try to do too much--especially if Crawford is back. Crawford has more than proven that he can bail out bad defense since his bad 2012 year so let Crawford handle a rookie/journeyman misplaying it and Keith should stay tight to his assignment. In essence--he shouldn't try to do too much and be the hero. If he keeps it simple on the ice--covers his man tighter than the anatomy of waterfowl, and lets the goalie compensate for the lack of his partner it would help his game a lot.

Conditioning-wise I'm not worried about Keith. He's a lot like Hossa or Kane in that regard--he's always ready physically for the opening puck drop.

I think the most major issue with Keith is Q. If Q alters his gameplan to fit the players we got, or we get a coach who's gameplan fits the players we got I think we see him rebound very well. But right now Q's playing Keith like it's 2010, 2013, or the 2015 playoffs...and that's not what Keith is anymore. Thus I think we see a rebound to a level where he's not a liability, but not stalwart, either.

A strong stay-at-home D partner would help him a ton, and that's why Joker should not play with him--Joker's game is too similar They both drive transition and are both the O-biased part of the paring. IMHO Joker and Keith paired would be a lot like Leddy and Keith paired.

That suggestion of paired with a stay at home guy is what Murphy with him late last year was. That is an option but that mostly forces that to be the matchup pair. It was that and that's why the results for Keith struggled so much.

Unless you ease the matchups with Forsling/Manning-Ruuta being in that role I dont see Keith benefiting from that situation.

 

[LordKOTL]

That suggestion of paired with a stay at home guy is what Murphy with him late last year was. That is an option but that mostly forces that to be the matchup pair. It was that and that's why the results for Keith struggled so much.

Unless you ease the matchups with Forsling/Manning-Ruuta being in that role I dont see Keith benefiting from that situation.

Q definitely needs to use the other guys more in match-ups--he overused Keith in that and look where it got the team: Further...Q kept doing it even when the 'hawks were supposed to be tanking!

No matter how you slice it the way forward has to be seeing what our D-kids have. Sure, they may make their mistakes but if Q keeps handing the reins over to Keith when there's the slightest bit of risk it's doing nothing for the kid's development, nor is keeping them out of game situations telling anyone if they can be stalwart in the backend or if we need to acquire someone who is. IMHO we're past the point Keith & Seabs being *the* guys for the foreseeable future--we have to be looking for the next guys and that beans them being allowed some responsibility to see if they can or can't handle it.