Value of: Duchene to Florida

[Jonas1235]

Duchene for McCoshen, Rau, 1st round pick?

Jagr is UFA, I doubt he makes 4 mil next season. Kindle 2 mil comes off books. Longterm they can fit Duchene in without moving salary back.

 

[vipernsx]

Why would you have any interest in that?? A downgraded, 5'10 centre who addresses zero of the Avs' needs? No interest whatsoever.

No defense; a team that keeps missing the playoffs; keep getting high picks and keep drafting forwards; young goalies that get shelled; players who go on to succeed for other teams; an "all-star" LW who can't stay healthy; paid forwards who haven't accomplished anything and routinely underperform; fans that keep demanding top value for them;...see Edmonton Oilers.

Hopefully you guys come to the realization before you have to go through 4 first overall picks.

On the ice, Duchene is no different than Evander Kane. A likeable personality, playing in a city south of the border, and a quiet life off the ice keeps the media off his back for being an under performing player.

 

[Avs44]

This is hilarious.


Of course the Avs are making these guys available for the Top end Defenders. And guess what, not a single damn trade has occurred.

I wonder why? The answer is pretty obvious, these teams all understand the importance of high end Dmen or potential high end Dmen and they aren't willing to trade them without significant overpayment that comes in the form of Landeskog++ or Duchene++. Something the Avs can't afford to do.


I mean ok sure, if by some ridiculous set of circumstances a Dman like Hanifin or Lindholm become available for Duchene straight up then ya that's a trade you make over a package deal. But the Avs have tried this many times before over the last couple of years and no team is willing to move those type of Dmen without getting massive over payment and the Avs simply do not have the depth or prospect pool to make that kind of trade right now.



The ROR trade is working out great for us. It was a mystery box trade where we got pieces that filled multiple holes and added depth to this team. Another trade like that is exactly the type of trade we need to make if we're gonna make a trade.

One of the defensmen I mentioned was Trouba. Do you think it takes Duchene or Landeskog++ to get him? If yes, I'm not going to bother, and if that's not what you meant, then you're not addressing what I wrote at all.


My overall point was rather simple: you demand a high end defense prospect in return for Duchene as part of any package. ROR's return was centered by Zadorov, a high end defensive prospect at the time. Considering Duchene is not a pending UFA refusing to sign and demanding 8 million per year like ROR, I imagine they should be able to get a Zadorov level, or more, prospect in return if they opt for a future package, don't you think? If not, you tell the inquiring teams to take a hike and keep Duchene. The absolute worst thing the Avs could do is not see what they need on the market, yet rush to trade Duchene anyways. There's no panic here; other teams march to the Avs' tune, or you don't move Duchene. AKA no high end defensive prospect, at the least, no Duchene.


Certainly there is zero chance I trade Duchene for a clear downgrade up front, a mystery box forward, and a pick that is currently 11th overall and only going to rise with Huberdeau coming back (and Duchene hypothetically added). Panthers aren't a team I trade Duchene to.

 

[I am not exposed]

Duchene for McCoshen, Rau, 1st round pick?

Jagr is UFA, I doubt he makes 4 mil next season. Kindle 2 mil comes off books. Longterm they can fit Duchene in without moving salary back.

Easily would do that, but the Avs wouldn't.

 

[I am not exposed]

Here is the thing with Ekblad he is a fantastic defenseman, but the Panthers new management want to mimic the Penguins style of play. And Ekblad just isn't that fast, also we can't seem to fill the seats. Ekblad would be great in a system like Boston, Minnesota, Arizona. He is struggling badly with our break out system. At the moment we all seem to be in limbo as to whether we can actually be a puck moving team with the personel we have currently. If management decides that Ekblad really can't play the system I can see him on the move.

yeah, pretty much.

If they want to play this system, Ekblad, Bjugstad, Jokinen, and Jagr are not built for it. Nor are Hubs and Barkov, but they are too good. Especially Barkov.

 

[LordNeverLose]

Duchene for McCoshen, Rau, 1st round pick?

Jagr is UFA, I doubt he makes 4 mil next season. Kindle 2 mil comes off books. Longterm they can fit Duchene in without moving salary back.

Yikes that's bad

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

One of the defensmen I mentioned was Trouba. Do you think it takes Duchene or Landeskog++ to get him? If yes, I'm not going to bother, and if that's not what you meant, then you're not addressing what I wrote at all.


My overall point was rather simple: you demand a high end defense prospect in return for Duchene as part of any package. ROR's return was centered by Zadorov, a high end defensive prospect at the time. Considering Duchene is not a pending UFA refusing to sign and demanding 8 million per year like ROR, I imagine they should be able to get a Zadorov level, or more, prospect in return if they opt for a future package, don't you think? If not, you tell the inquiring teams to take a hike and keep Duchene. The absolute worst thing the Avs could do is not see what they need on the market, yet rush to trade Duchene anyways. There's no panic here; other teams march to the Avs' tune, or you don't move Duchene. AKA no high end defensive prospect, at the least, no Duchene.


Certainly there is zero chance I trade Duchene for a clear downgrade up front, a mystery box forward, and a pick that is currently 11th overall and only going to rise with Huberdeau coming back (and Duchene hypothetically added). Panthers aren't a team I trade Duchene to.

I personally dont value Trouba highly at all(I think at best he works out to be a good #2, and more likely just a #3) so no I wouldn't trade even Duchene straight up for him. But if I thought he could be a future high end #2 or #1 then yes absolutely it would cost Duchene/Landeskog++. And the reason Trouba wasn't traded this summer was because Winnipeg still has hopes he can be that #1 or high end #2.



I think you're massively overrating Duchene to be honest. I think that much is extremely obvious.

 

[Avs44]

I personally dont value Trouba highly at all(I think at best he works out to be a good #2, and more likely just a #3) so no I wouldn't trade even Duchene straight up for him. But if I thought he could be a future high end #2 or #1 then yes absolutely it would cost Duchene/Landeskog++. And the reason Trouba wasn't traded this summer was because Winnipeg still has hopes he can be that #1 or high end #2.



I think you're massively overrating Duchene to be honest. I think that much is extremely obvious.

Of course. Even though I have not suggested any straight up swaps at all and have merely disagreed with what you would trade Duchene for as a poor fit, and said a high end defensive prospect would be required back, I am automatically massively overrating Duchene simply by contradicting what you think would be a fine package - even though I wasn't commenting on its value, as I have now said multiple times.


And even though I was willing to accept less from Montreal fans for Duchene than you were. Somehow that doesn't fly with your analysis, but good work jumping to extremely obvious conclusions.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Of course. Even though I have not suggested any straight up swaps at all and have merely disagreed with what you would trade Duchene for as a poor fit, and said a high end defensive prospect would be required back, I am automatically massively overrating Duchene simply by contradicting what you think would be a fine package - even though I wasn't commenting on its value, as I have now said multiple times.


And even though I was willing to accept less from Montreal fans for Duchene than you were. Somehow that doesn't fly with your analysis, but good work jumping to extremely obvious conclusions.

If you give it a "Zero percent chance" of trading Duchene for a replcement Top 6 forward, a "mystery box" and an ~11th overall pick in the draft then yes you absolutely are overvaluing Duchene.



For the record. A package of Trocheck + Borgstrom + ~11th overall pick is way more then Sergachev + Scherback + a late 1st. But I bet you disagree with that opinion as well.

 

[Avs44]

If you give it a "Zero percent chance" of trading Duchene for a replcement Top 6 forward, a "mystery box" and an ~11th overall pick in the draft then yes you absolutely are overvaluing Duchene.



For the record. A package of Trocheck + Borgstrom + ~11th overall pick is way more then Sergachev + Scherback + a late 1st. But I bet you disagree with that opinion as well.

I'm not sure why you're putting quotes around something I didn't say. All of the insiders have been adamant the Avs are after defensmen. That is all we've heard, for practically years. They were hard after Kulikov, they went hard after Stralman and Orpik in free agency, they went after Sekera, they've been trying to trade for young defensmen, they put Landeskog and seemingly Duchene on the block for defenders this past off-season, they traded ROR for a package centering a young defense prospect...I'm not too sure what to say if you think there is a reasonable chance they now go trade Duchene and don't get a young defender or high end defensive prospect back. For years that is literally the biggest thing Sakic has been after, and now he's going to trade one of his best, if not his best, player on the team - whom he doesn't have to trade at all - and not at least get something that is / could be a high end defender back? I guess we'll see, but I don't like the odds if that's your bet - unless a club offers something ludicrous, and I don't think a downgraded forward, what I think would be a playoff first rounder if Duchene was added, and a forward prospect is that type of ludicrous overpayment.


Defense is key in the NHL, and it's been a massive problem for years. If Sakic trades Duchene now and doesn't get a young defender or very good defensive prospect back, when he has zero pressure to trade Duchene, he is incompetent, plain and simple. You don't give up one of your top trading chips and fail to address something you badly, badly need. You and I should know better than about anyone else - except Edmonton fans maybe - that it doesn't matter how nice your offense is, even if you add Trocheck and Borgstrom and whoever else, if your defense sucks. Getting someone like Sergachev, a prospect with a real shot at being a top pairing defensman, is immense value in of itself beyond value in just a 'vacuum.'

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'm not sure why you're putting quotes around something I didn't say. All of the insiders have been adamant the Avs are after defensmen. That is all we've heard, for practically years. They were hard after Kulikov, they went hard after Stralman and Orpik in free agency, they went after Sekera, they've been trying to trade for young defensmen, they put Landeskog and seemingly Duchene on the block for defenders this past off-season, they traded ROR for a package centering a young defense prospect...I'm not too sure what to say if you think there is a reasonable chance they now go trade Duchene and don't get a young defender or high end defensive prospect back. For years that is literally the biggest thing Sakic has been after, and now he's going to trade one of his best, if not his best, player on the team - whom he doesn't have to trade at all - and not at least get something that is / could be a high end defender back? I guess we'll see, but I don't like the odds if that's your bet - unless a club offers something ludicrous, and I don't think a downgraded forward, what I think would be a playoff first rounder if Duchene was added, and a forward prospect is that type of ludicrous overpayment.


Defense is key in the NHL, and it's been a massive problem for years. If Sakic trades Duchene now and doesn't get a young defender or very good defensive prospect back, when he has zero pressure to trade Duchene, he is incompetent, plain and simple. You don't give up one of your top trading chips and fail to address something you badly, badly need.

Sure, I mean you literally said exactly what I quoted just two posts earlier, but go ahead and deny it. Hell go ahead and edit it out if you want. Doesn't bother me. Also, if you want to believe Daters "rumors" about the Avs trade wants then that's cool but I'm not nearly as naive as you. And even the Friedmans/LeBruns/Mackenzies have said in the rumors they've posted about the Avs that they're using Dater as the source for what they say. At this point you really should no that even those guys dont have insider sources with the Avs. Nobody does. We're the most secretive organization in the league whether a good thing or a bad thing(It's honestly a bad thing IMO).


In that Florida trade the Avs may not specfically be getting a Dman or D prospect back. But instead they have the opportunity to draft a Dman they've extremely high on in the first ~10 picks of the draft this year. That's the main point of this trade. You're not going to get a teams top young Dman in a trade for Duchene. It's just not happening. You might be able to get a top prospect like Sergachev, and in that circumstance I would agree that a trad with MTL makes more sense. But with a trade like this the Avs get the opportunity to draft a Dman they really like in this years draft, either with our own pick in the Top 3(And obviously that Dman would be Liljegren) or with Fla's pick at that point and the player is likely Foote or Hague.


Those 3 Dmen the Avs can draft are just as good and have just as much potential as any D prospect they would get back from another team via trade.

 

[Avs44]

Sure, I mean you literally said exactly what I quoted just two posts earlier, but go ahead and deny it. Hell go ahead and edit it out if you want. Doesn't bother me. Also, if you want to believe Daters "rumors" about the Avs trade wants then that's cool but I'm not nearly as naive as you. And even the Friedmans/LeBruns/Mackenzies have said in the rumors they've posted about the Avs that they're using Dater as the source for what they say. At this point you really should no that even those guys dont have insider sources with the Avs. Nobody does. We're the most secretive organization in the league whether a good thing or a bad thing(It's honestly a bad thing IMO).


In that Florida trade the Avs may not specfically be getting a Dman or D prospect back. But instead they have the opportunity to draft a Dman they've extremely high on in the first ~10 picks of the draft this year. That's the main point of this trade. You're not going to get a teams top young Dman in a trade for Duchene. It's just not happening. You might be able to get a top prospect like Sergachev, and in that circumstance I would agree that a trad with MTL makes more sense. But with a trade like this the Avs get the opportunity to draft a Dman they really like in this years draft, either with our own pick in the Top 3(And obviously that Dman would be Liljegren) or with Fla's pick at that point and the player is likely Foote or Hague.


Those 3 Dmen the Avs can draft are just as good and have just as much potential as any D prospect they would get back from another team via trade.

I said zero chance I do that, not "zero percent chance" it happens. Rather important difference you missed there.



You can toss out rumors as you go if you wish, but with Roy here the Avs were not nearly as secretive. Under Sakic now it appears they've gone back to that, but if you want to dismiss everything that credible insiders have turned out - including people like Friedman, and even people like henchy on our board - confirming interest in pieces like Kulikov - and pretend none of it can possibly be true and that I am naive for somehow believing Bob McKenzie might actually know what's going on before posting information, as he has done his entire career during his climb to the top of hockey reporting, that is your prerogative. I'm not going to dismiss what the best insiders in the business say, and if you think that makes you somehow more intelligent or more savvy than me, that's great.



Regarding the pick from Florida...there is zero guarantee it is top 10, if that is the pick you're referring to. It is currently not top 10, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggesting a returning Huberdeau+Duchene should make Florida a better team, do you? And if you're referring to the Avs' pick, if it stays as high as it is now, you draft BPA and needs be hanged. That is how it always goes, and making a trade like this wouldn't change that selection in the slightest - BPA. If management and scouting feels Liljegren is the BPA, and he is available, that is who they would take - this trade or not. For that matter, I feel like that would happen with Florida's pick too even if it was top 10. Teams that high in the draft always draft BPA I think, not by need, so I disagree with that entire logic.



There's no rush. If nobody offers a top defense prospect at the least, the Avs can keep Duchene. Regardless, you and I obviously have very different philosophies on what the Avs need and what they should do with their best trading chip, so I'll leave this one here because I'm not changing my mind, and neither are you.

 

[LondonKendrick]

You probably wont like what the + is in that trade.


Would take at least FLA 1st + B level prospect.

I'm just curious and won't respond beyond this post.

Would you take the Leafs 1st top two protected + Avs choice of prospect off the Leafs farm system for Duchene?