Dreger: NHL expansion fee could be $2 billion

[mouser]

Quote is from about 2009, during the BK proceedings in Phoenix. He was on the witness stand. Clearly, it was an accurate evaluation of what the league thought of the market AT THAT TIME.

However, again, if most of the money would go to the owner, rather than being shared with the other owners, is that what the owners want? Note that Vegas has been a huge boom in terms of US-wide interest and merchandising. Exactly perfect for all of the owners. Likely, Hamilton would never be that.

I’m going to disagree this was an accurate evaluation by the NHL.

You have to understand the context of the bankruptcy proceedings in 2009. Balsillie‘s position with the bankruptcy court was he shouldn’t have to pay any relocation fees to the NHL. The NHL was highly incentivized in the bankruptcy proceedings to “pump up” the value of the Hamilton market to increase any potential relocation fee.

In the event the bankruptcy judge Redfield T. Baum ruled in favor of Balsillie to gain ownership of the Coyotes, he could also rule the NHL was owed a market relocation fee from Balsillie for Hamilton in the hundreds of millions.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

2bil seems pretty outlandish in 2023. It may not be in 2035.

In fact, relocation fees could potentially hit that number sooner if the NHL opted to cap teams at 32 and just move teams every few decades. Fixed commodity only goes up in value.

All this chatter of Hamilton or QC getting teams is probably no more than a pipe dream. Sure, in some 36 or 40-team scenario they might but probably more likely to fill up empty spaces once US markets become exhausted. Definitely not 'front of the line' markets.

 

[StreetHawk]

2bil seems pretty outlandish in 2023. It may not be in 2035.

In fact, relocation fees could potentially hit that number sooner if the NHL opted to cap teams at 32 and just move teams every few decades. Fixed commodity only goes up in value.

All this chatter of Hamilton or QC getting teams is probably no more than a pipe dream. Sure, in some 36 or 40-team scenario they might but probably more likely to fill up empty spaces once US markets become exhausted. Definitely not 'front of the line' markets.

Don’t get the sense it’s 2030’s for expansion. TB sold at a $1.4 billion valuation. But these past 7/8 years have seen an explosion of sports team’s valuations. Clippers and rockets in the 2015/2017 year sold at $2 bill and $2.2 bill. 2022 the suns go for $4 bill. Double in about 7 years. Might be maxed out for that level of growth. But who knows.

I doubt that development that is being worked on in ATL is waiting a decade for a team. They might need approval for a team before it gets greenlit to proceed.

 

[These Are The Days]

The NHL in Hamilton ain't happening. Canadian expansion will be focused entirely on Quebec City. If the Leafs win a title at any point since 1990, the idea would be completely dead because it's based entirely on 600,000 people frustrated by the Leafs' lack of success. Not only that, Buffalo, Toronto and probably even Detroit by proximity will oppose every effort of expansion. And if you're still not convinced, give Quebec City 5-10 years and it'll be about the size of Hamilton once it gets the Nords back. If you don't believe me, look at Winnipeg's population growth after the Jets left and when they came back. 13% doesn't lie folks. They will live where the hockey does

Out west you can bet on Houston or Salt Lake City

 

[Headshot77]

Realistically I don't think the NHL wants to add any Canadian franchises for any reason. They serve purely as emergency relocations for distressed American markets now.

If you want a QC and a Hamilton team, you better start hoping that Las Vegas runs out of water, or that rising sea levels make Miami uninhabitable.

 

[BMN]

If the Leafs win a title at any point since 1990, the idea would be completely dead because it's based entirely on 600,000 people frustrated by the Leafs' lack of success.
I don't think the NHL is likely to ever go to Hamilton either but I think you're highly naive to the number of Hamiltonians that would welcome a rivalry with Toronto regardless of the Leafs' success.

 

[Anisimovs AK]

Well given NHL isn’t worth 2$B in New York or Toronto, it definitely isn’t worth that much elsewhere.

Sure on some paper the league and Forbes estimate top teams value to be around 2$B, until Rangers or Leafs or Habs are sold for that much, it’s still just speculation.

Those teams arent going to be sold anytime soon, they are too valuable.


Which kind of makes your point moot, then, doesn't it?

 

[Anisimovs AK]

That is a pretty expensive payoff to get only a few NHL caliber players out of Arizona after having a team there for quite some time and pouring millions into that market to keep it afloat. To me it looks like much was not done at the grass roots level other than just plop a team in that market.

Okay, so the youth programs and ice sheets for them to skate on just dont exist?

There are only a handful of players from the Columbus, OH area in the league, that's still infinity times more than there were in the league before the Jackets existed. However, there were only 2 Columbus area high school hockey teams (and no travel/junior teams) at the time. Now the city has a 16 teams high school hockey league. The AAA Blue Jackets program keeps churning out NHL/AHL level players, but the Blue Jackets are always near the bottom of the league in net revenue and income.


Was Columbus worth it? Or do we get a pass because it snows here

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

You're asking if a city in the states gets a pass? The answer is obviously not. Did Winnipeg get a pass for having hockey players and no NHL team? Or did that change when they finally got one?

 

[Jets4Life]

Why are people here are forgetting Hamilton here because Hamilton is most lucrative market left here is why Hamilton has arena that will be all set to go when 150 million dollars in renovations are complete in 2025 plus Hamilton population right now is over 800.0000 & will be over million in the next few years then you got the areas outside of Hamilton such as Brantford , Guelph , Kitchener\Waterloo area to London & the rest of southwestern Ontario oh lets no forget the LRT. .

People from Kitchener/Waterloo, London, etc. are not going to drive all the way to Hamilton to see an NHL game.

 

[Jets4Life]

The best markets left for an NHL. expansion teams are as follows

Southern Ontario (Hamilton)
Quebec City
Portland
Milwaukee

All have arenas all set to go time the NHL. is ready to expand again & are traditional hockey markets that are safe bets to make tons of money .

None of those markets are the "best."

Quebec is a small market Canadian team, and Montreal would object to their presence. The NHL would much rather put a team in the GTA, than one in Hamilton. Unless Buffalo moves, there would be zero chance the NHL would ever grant the market a franchise.

Milwaukee is a small market US city with about 1.6 million people. They are over-saturated in the sports market, with the Brewers and Bucks. Many people also drive a short distance to see the Packers. Portland is not likely as the Trailblazers would be hesitant about splitting their arena with an NHL team.

The most likely areas that the NHL will expand to in future are:

Houston
Atlanta
Salt Lake
San Diego

 

[GKJ]

The Sabres are southern Ontario’s second team.

 

[MMC]

 

[TheLegend]

Weeksie bringing the gasoline.

 

[hammer42]

None of those markets are the "best."

Quebec is a small market Canadian team, and Montreal would object to their presence. The NHL would much rather put a team in the GTA, than one in Hamilton. Unless Buffalo moves, there would be zero chance the NHL would ever grant the market a franchise.

Milwaukee is a small market US city with about 1.6 million people. They are over-saturated in the sports market, with the Brewers and Bucks. Many people also drive a short distance to see the Packers. Portland is not likely as the Trailblazers would be hesitant about splitting their arena with an NHL team.

The most likely areas that the NHL will expand to in future are:

Houston
Atlanta
Salt Lake
San Diego

Listen 1st here the problem with the your list of future NHL. expansion teams Houston is the only one there that is all but guaranteed NHL. by either a relocated coyotes team or an expansion team but most likely the coyotes would move there as for the others there is no way the NHL. gives Atlanta a third chance they failed twice that's it Salt Lake City is way to small of a market & they are being highly considered for an MLB Expansion team along with Nashville & they can support hockey , basketball , baseball & soccer so they would have choose & Salt Lake City way more of a baseball market than a hockey market last but not least San Diego no 3 teams in California is enough .

 

[hammer42]

Look the Buffalo Sabers are restricting ticket sales in southern Ontario so they have pretty much given up there so called territory rights as for Toronto Maple Leafs & should have no problem with 2nd regional team in southern Ontario based in Hamilton besides MLSE. well be direct competition anyway when you consider that the FirstOntario center is getting 300 million dollar reno which will make it an NHL. ready arena & the people that are funding this development would throw this kind of money around with they did not have the NHL. in mind & besides you look at other markets that kind close together like the Rangers , Islanders , Devils & Flyers on the east coast & on the west coast you the Kings & Ducks & don't say that is different no it is not the only difference is one is American & the other is Canadian & the NHL. has shown to anti Canadian .

 

[hammer42]

Here in my opinion is the best markets for NHL. expansion team

Houston
Kansas City
Hamilton ( Regional Team most likely called Ontario)
Quebec City
*Portland

* Portland gets a team only if the coyotes move to Houston

 

[mouser]

2+ week old thread bump with nothing new. Closed