Draft Picks, the cold hard facts/stats

[Penguinator]

RND # / CAREER PLAYERS + SUPPORTING CAST

1 / 45% + 20%
2 / 14.5% + 10.6%
3 / 7.33% + 8%

(a 10 years sample computed from 2001-2010)

Career = Players with an avg. of 40+ games/season (30+gp for goalers)
Supporting cast = Players with an avg. of between 20-40gp/season (15-30 for goalers)


For complete stats & analysis:
http://blogues.radio-canada.ca/bloguesportif/2015/02/26/que-vaut-un-choix-au-repechage/

To give you perspective my friends on the odds of success with all the talk about trading for the now and beyond and building for the future around here...

(the source link is in French so you might want to use your browser's translation program in order to understand what isn't just stats...)

Click to read more...

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And remember we have picked the bottom third of each round each year. So move those percentages down toward the next round when it comes to us.

A top five pick in the first is not the same as a bottom ten pick.

 

[cassius]

Can someone pull data on our draft picks during the the Sidney Crosby era?

i.e. how many we kept vs. how many we traded by year

 

[madinsomniac]

As i have said elsewhere, much of NHL drafting is projection so the bust rate is high. on the flip side you can find great talent low if you dont follow the same tired talent lines and give guys real chances.
If at any time you can lock in a good young player by trading a pick you do it, because you know what you are getting and you dont have to spend the resources developing them.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Didn't Rip already do this analysis already like 2 months ago?

 

[Penguinator]

And remember we have picked the bottom third of each round each year. So move those percentages down toward the next round when it comes to us.

A top five pick in the first is not the same as a bottom ten pick.

"Logical" -Spock (R.I.P. Leonard Nimoy, he lived long & prospered)

 

[Freeptop]

Can someone pull data on our draft picks during the the Sidney Crosby era?

i.e. how many we kept vs. how many we traded by year

Under Shero (not counting 2006, since Craig Patrick was responsible for trading most of that year's away):

Year: picks at draft/number of rounds => percentage of picks retained
2014: 5/7 => 71.4%
2013: 6/7 => 85.7%
2012: 9/7 => 128.6%
2011: 5/7 => 71.4%
2010: 6/7 => 85.7%
2009: 7/7 => 100%
2008: 4/7 => 57.1%
2007: 8/7 => 114%
Total: 44/49 => 89.8%

Picks per round:
round:
year: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
--------------------------
2014: 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
2013: 0 1 1 1 0 2 1
2012: 2 1 2 2 1 1 0
2011: 1 1 0 0 1 1 1
2010: 1 0 1 1 1 2 0
2009: 1 1 1 1 2 1 0
2008: 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
2007: 1 1 2 2 1 1 0
--------------------------
Total 7 5 7 9 8 10 4

Percentage by round:
Round 1: 7/8: 87.5%
Round 2: 5/8: 62.5%
Round 3: 7/8: 87.5%
Round 4: 9/8: 112.5%
Round 5: 8/8: 100%
Round 6: 10/8: 125%
Round 7: 4/8: 50%


Note that the number of picks "retained" includes those obtained through other trades.

 

[OnMyOwn]

So we've hardly "mortgaged the future" as some claim. We've kept a high % of picks over the years.

 

[cassius]

So we've hardly "mortgaged the future" as some claim. We've kept a high % of picks over the years.

Keep in mind 2014 will have 0 1st rounder and 0 2nd rounder.. but yes, that is somewhat true. Data suggests that our scouting / development is a mess.

 

[Winger for Hire]

So we've hardly "mortgaged the future" as some claim. We've kept a high % of picks over the years.

Pretty much. There's just been a high wash out rate and a metric **** ton of blueliners.

 

[ETA]

This was also a very good analysis (and in english to boot):
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

 

[Skk82]

So we've hardly "mortgaged the future" as some claim. We've kept a high % of picks over the years.

Well, they kept their 2007 and 2011 first round picks before trading them as a prospect for rental players*. "Mortgaging the future" doesn't just mean keeping the pick, if you trade the player before he turns pro, this analysis of keeping the pick doesn't matter.

*Which isn't always a bad thing, since 4 months of Hossa were worth more than 14 years of Esposito.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

As I said in another thread, the Pens have the 16th ranked organization in HF rankings.

Despite supposedly mortgaging the future.

Despite picking in the bottom third of every round during which every one of the players in their organization was drafted.

Despite some significant graduations recently.

So if they are selling out their future over a second round pick for Winnick, etc, they apparently are doing it all wrong.

 

[cassius]

As I said in another thread, the Pens have the 16th ranked organization in HF rankings.

Despite supposedly mortgaging the future.

Despite picking in the bottom third of every round during which every one of the players in their organization was drafted.

Despite some significant graduations recently.

So if they are selling out their future over a second round pick for Winnick, etc, they apparently are doing it all wrong.

Devils advocate since when have HF rankings ever been accurate though?

We've consistently been around ~15 range and the last NHL forwards we developed are named Zach Sill, TK, and Beau Bennett.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Devils advocate since when have HF rankings ever been accurate though?

We've consistently been around ~15 range and the last NHL forwards we developed are named Zach Sill, TK, and Beau Bennett.

If we had drafted forwards instead of D's we would be in the top 10. Forwards are always more popular on here anyways.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Devils advocate since when have HF rankings ever been accurate though?

We've consistently been around ~15 range and the last NHL forwards we developed are named Zach Sill, TK, and Beau Bennett.

It is the best indicator we have. And the ranked players for the most part are working out for us. It took Letang and Goligoski some time and growing pains before they improved. Of course some may say that they never shed those horrid habits of the early days, but they do not remember their first two years then.

 

[Freeptop]

Keep in mind 2014 will have 0 1st rounder and 0 2nd rounder.. but yes, that is somewhat true. Data suggests that our scouting / development is a mess.

I should have included 2014, true, since Shero was responsible for trading away the picks used there, but 2014 did include a first round pick: Kasperi Kapanen, you might recall.

Edit: I went back and edited 2014 into my original post above.

 

[Rocket of Russia]

I believe too much emphasis is being put on the percentage of 2nd rounders who make it in the NHL vs. what the average going rate for 3rd line rentals at the deadline is.

"2nd rounders rarely turn into NHL players anyway." That's great, but if the going rate for a 2nd rounder is normally a higher caliber of player, who cares how often that 2nd rounder turns into a roster player?

The reality is Toronto got great value on an asset they signed in free agency. The Pens paid a steep price. Let's hope it pays off.

Unrelated, kinda related:

Gaborik went for a 2nd, conditional 3rd, and Frattin. Vanek went for a 2nd and Collberg. Hemskey went for a 3rd and a 5th.

2014 was a historically cheap year for scoring wingers, but it's not like we didn't have the assets then - who knows what could have been if Hemsky or Gaborik played in Pittsburgh. We got Goc. Still salty. Sue me.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Picks really are just lottery balls. The more you have the better chance that 1 turns into a contributing NHL'er.

 

[Penguinator]

Can anyone copy & paste the stats% grid from the link i provided por favor?

Can't properly do it with my phone.

Thanks.

 

[ETA]

Not sure how well-formatted this will be but here you go:

Tour A (joueurs de carrière) B (joueurs d’appoint) T (total)
1er tour 45 % 20 % 65 %
2e tour 14,5 % 10,6 % 25,1 %
3e tour 7,33 % 8 % 15,3 %
4e tour 5 % 7,6 % 12,6 %
5e tour 3,33 % 5 % 8,3 %
6e tour 2,3 % 7 % 9,3 %
7e tour* 3,33 % 3,66 % 7 %

 

[Penguinator]

Not sure how well-formatted this will be but here you go:

ROUND/ A (career players) / B (supporting cast) / T (total)
1rst rnd 45 % 20 % 65 %
2e tour 14,5 % 10,6 % 25,1 %
3e tour 7,33 % 8 % 15,3 %
4e tour 5 % 7,6 % 12,6 %
5e tour 3,33 % 5 % 8,3 %
6e tour 2,3 % 7 % 9,3 %
7e tour* 3,33 % 3,66 % 7 %

Well, it didn't go well as the grid was lost but thanks anyway! I've translated it in this suite from your post.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

Devils advocate since when have HF rankings ever been accurate though?

We've consistently been around ~15 range and the last NHL forwards we developed are named Zach Sill, TK, and Beau Bennett.

Hey, what about Letestu and Vitale?

Dustin Jeffrey was probably bound to be a legitimate NHL player if he hadn't been injured. He's still good enough to lead the Utica Comets in scoring!

 

[Penguinator]

Also, to explain the weirdness of the 7th rnd numbers, it includes 8th & 9th rnds from 2001-2004.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Hey, what about Letestu and Vitale?

Dustin Jeffrey was probably bound to be a legitimate NHL player if he hadn't been injured. He's still good enough to lead the Utica Comets in scoring!

Ya, to be fair, Jeffrey was never the same after tearing up his knee.