Draft Order Question

[StarvingHysterical]

Hi, I don't know too much about hockey. I know it's 20% to get the top pick now if you finish last. But if you end up in the 80% and not getting it are you guaranteed the 2nd pick? Thanks.

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[Sabretooth]

This year, yes, the team that finishes last is guarenteed to pick no worse than 2nd. Starting next year, there will be a lotto for the first 3 picks, so the team that finishes last could pick as low as 4th.

 

[Paxon]

This is the last year where if you finish last you are guaranteed either the 1st or 2nd pick. So yes, if we finish last it's basically 20% at #1 and 80% at #2. Starting with the 2016 draft there are going to be multiple lottery drawings, meaning multiple teams may move up and multiple teams may move down. So whichever team finishes last in the 2015-2016 pick may wind up drafting 3rd or 4th overall.

 

[sabres4ever]

This is the last year where if you finish last you are guaranteed either the 1st or 2nd pick. So yes, if we finish last it's basically 20% at #1 and 80% at #2. Starting with the 2016 draft there are going to be multiple lottery drawings, meaning multiple teams may move up and multiple teams may move down. So whichever team finishes last in the 2015-2016 pick may wind up drafting 3rd or 4th overall.

Doesn't every other team have a less than 20% chance to pick first?

 

[Mike McDermott]

Doesn't every other team have a less than 20% chance to pick first?

Yes. There are 14 teams in for lotto (the teams that miss the playoffs) and the higher you were of the 14 lowers your odds.

 

[yahhockey]

quick google search and voila

Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest Pts. to Most) New Odds...Old Odds
1.... 20.0%... 25.0%
2.... 13.5%... 18.8%
3.... 11.5%... 14.2%
4.... 9.5%.... 10.7%
5.... 8.5%.... 8.1%
6.... 7.5%.... 6.2%
7.... 6.5%.... 4.7%
8.... 6.0%.... 3.6%
9.... 5.0%.... 2.7%
10... 3.5%.... 2.1%
11... 3.0%.... 1.5%
12... 2.5%.... 1.1%
13... 2.0%.... 0.8%
14... 1.0%.... 0.5%

 

[Paxon]

Doesn't every other team have a less than 20% chance to pick first?

Yes. I didn't mean to imply otherwise if my wording was ambiguous. As you can see in the post above, no other slot is close to a 20% chance at 1st overall, not even the second slot.

 

[sabres4ever]

Yes. I didn't mean to imply otherwise if my wording was ambiguous. As you can see in the post above, no other slot is close to a 20% chance at 1st overall, not even the second slot.

Bottom line is, finishing last we will have the best chance of winning the lottery given the odds. The way some post it, it makes it seem like 20% chance of winning it, and 80% we dont. It's just that 80% is the combination of all the remaining teams.

 

[Bps21*]

That's still 80% we don't...

 

[MattyB101]

Bottom line is, finishing last we will have the best chance of winning the lottery given the odds. The way some post it, it makes it seem like 20% chance of winning it, and 80% we dont. It's just that 80% is the combination of all the remaining teams.

Well, if they make it seem that way it's true. The last place team has the best odds (20%) over any other individual team. But the lottery is pooled with 13 other teams. So, out of that pool, there is an 80% chance a team other than the last place team wins the lottery. What their individual odds are don't matter... it's "us" vs "not us".

Example.

You enter a raffle. You get 10 tickets. There are 90 other people with only 1 ticket for a total of 100 tickets. Individually, you have the best odds of anyone else (10% vs their 1%). However, collectively there are 90 tickets that aren't yours and any of which are drawn means you don't win. That means there is a 90% chance you don't win.

 

[sabres4ever]

I'm sticking to we pick first.