Draft lottery rigged?

[ES]

There is actually a short video on 2013 lottery:

 

[pucky]

The odds are increased, the worse a team does, correct? So, if it is fixed, it would have to be only applicable to a handful of bottom dweller teams. When the Pens won Crosby, the worst teams of the previous year (before lockout cancelled that particular season), were - Pens (58 pts), Caps (59 pts) and Hawks (59 pts). So, how is it fixed when the Pens won the lottery? They finished dead last so should, in theory, have the best chance of winning it. Second, the only other team/franchise that might be considered in trouble would be the Caps. I don't think their attendance was that great?

I think it's feasible the League would want certain teams to improve via lottery or draft pick if they are in trouble and smaller market teams, though. But, the question is, would they have to interfere in that case?

 

[Buck Aki Berg]

Also i hate how it has become established fact that Bettman wanted the Pens to win. Is there any real proof of that?

He gifted Crosby to the Pens. What more proof to you need?

Jeez, did you even read the thread?

 

[Talain]

As much as the league may have wanted Pittsburgh to win the Sidney Crosby lottery due to the very serious danger of them relocating if they didn't, The Penguins up and moving to another city would be far, FAR less of a blow to the league than the complete loss of credibility from them getting caught trying to fix a draft lottery - especially one where a generational talent like Crosby as involved.

 

[seanlinden]

I can say with a high degree of confidence that the Crosby draft was rigged. It was simply too high of a priority to let it fall to chance... with the system they used (all 30 teams / spots are drafted, teams have between 1 and 3 balls), it was far too easy to make the Pens come up first. There was no team that stood to benefit more from getting Sidney Crosby than the Pens, and they needed to show that the salary cap could save teams.

That being said, I don't believe it's been since. The lottery system they use today would be much tougher to rig. It also (publicly and to an egregious level) favours the really bad teams... so it's really no suprise when they win it.

 

[cbcwpg]

The NHL Lottery is NOT fixed.

- If it was fixed do you think the NHL would have let Edmonton get the 1st overall pick three years in a row? Never.

What will hurt the NHL's credibility more is when a team is actively tanking for the hopes of landing the 1st pick, everyone in hockey knows they are tanking, all the sports shows make a big joke about it, and the the NHL says "no they aren't"

 

[tempofound]

I can say with a high degree of confidence that the Crosby draft was rigged. It was simply too high of a priority to let it fall to chance... with the system they used (all 30 teams / spots are drafted, teams have between 1 and 3 balls), it was far too easy to make the Pens come up first. There was no team that stood to benefit more from getting Sidney Crosby than the Pens, and they needed to show that the salary cap could save teams.

That being said, I don't believe it's been since. The lottery system they use today would be much tougher to rig. It also (publicly and to an egregious level) favours the really bad teams... so it's really no suprise when they win it.

When a crime is commited the bad detective speculates about the motives instead of following the evidence. A truly pathetic detective speculates about imaginary crimes with motives functioning as evidence.

 

[Jerkini]

In a perfect world, the Coyotes just miss the playoffs this year, but win the lottery, and this place explodes.

*That* would be entertainment.

Or Toronto. But we're not that lucky.

 

[seanlinden]

When a crime is commited the bad detective speculates about the motives instead of following the evidence. A truly pathetic detective speculates about imaginary crimes with motives functioning as evidence.

Sorry, I don't pretend to be an actual detective. I wasn't in the room, I didn't have a chance to inspect the lottery machine immediately after the fact or anything like that.

I'm simply a neuteral observer who thought that if the NHL had it's choice, Crosby would end up in Pittsburgh. The Penguins had something like a 6% chance in the lottery IIRC. A little too convenient for me.

 

[Buck Aki Berg]

The Penguins had something like a 6% chance in the lottery IIRC. A little too convenient for me.

Could you provide us with a list of teams that had a higher probability than Pittsburgh's 6%, and thus, should have had a greater statistical probability of winning?

 

[Estlin]

At the very least, the NHL can livestream the lottery so that people who are interested can watch it happen over the internet.

As for rigging, I am expecting Arizona to magically get the #1 pick. The situation is just too perfect for Bettman to have his pet team/project get the greatest boost a struggling franchise can receive.

 

[Brick City]

As entertaining as this is to read, time to rain on the tin foil hat parade rolling through BoH. Pittsburgh, along with 3 other teams, had the highest odds in the 2005 draft lottery:

Breakdown of lottery balls from Wikipedia

Three balls [6.3%]

Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins

Two balls [4.2%]

Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes

One ball [2.1%]

Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NHL_Entry_Draft#Lottery


NHL press release

The Pittsburgh Penguins won the National Hockey League Draft Drawing, held today following the League's Board of Governors meeting in New York, and obtained the first overall selection for the 2005 Entry Draft, to be held Saturday, July 30 (noon, ET) at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa.

The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent. These clubs were the Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers.

Ten clubs met one of the seven criteria listed above and had a 4.2% chance of winning the Drawing, while the remaining 16 clubs met more than one of the criteria and had a 2.1% chance.

Forty-eight balls, numbered one through 48, were placed in a lottery machine. Three ball numbers were randomly assigned to each the Penguins, Sabres, Blue Jackets and Rangers; two ball numbers were assigned to the 10 clubs with a 4.2% chance; and one ball number was assigned to the 16 clubs with a 2.1% chance. The first ball expelled determined the winner of the first overall draft pick and it had been assigned to the Penguins.

After the first overall selection was awarded, another ball was expelled to determine which club, from among the 29 remaining, received the second overall pick. This process was continued until each of the 30 first-round draft positions was assigned.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Note the bolded - the lottery selection was held right after the BoG meeting in New York. As others have already said on here, I highly, highly doubt that any of the other 29 owners would be complicit in allowing Bettman to rig the lottery against one of their teams. Remember, in 2005 every team had a shot at the #1 pick. Why would any governor/owner in their right mind allow a rigging against their own self-interest to occur?

I could not find any references to an audit from 2005 (although Google led me to posts on another Devils forum fully expecting the Rangers to win the lottery, so the conspiracy theories were alive and well then too), but nowadays I am pretty sure KPMG audits the lottery selection. No way in Hades a Big 4 accounting firm is playing along with any alleged Bettman/NHL shenanigans that would destroy the firm's legitimacy if it ever leaked out.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Okay--some of you must have me on ignnore

Can someone point out to the people overlooking what I said earlier

A third party overseas the lotto and verfy the results--I forget the companies name (it maybe price waterhouse) and if the company monitoring the lotto allows illigal stuff to happen and not report it--it could have collateral affects on that companies legal business as they are used both by the government and business to verify indipendantly outcomes of accounting practices.

The Lotto while is held behind closed doors--it is monitored by a independant company

 

[Gnashville]

thought maybe I had finally pissed everyone off here and that all collectively put me on ignore.

I do not think people who are curious about if the NHL tries to rig the lotto realize that the third party who verifies the results actually does some pretty serious stuff in the business world and if they were participants is such a fiasco that it could lead to all their other business dealings being looked at and that could result in BILLIONS of DOLLARS of business being put under a microscope

Your right about the draft but I don't think many people are ignoring you.
The NHL is a small client compared to some of the other accounts these firms handle. The accounting company is NOT going to risk it's reputation and license just to appease that NHL. If there was any hint of monkey business these firms would not attached their names to them. Sometimes people's hatered of Bettman gets the best of them and these conspiracies gain traction. There is no way using that video that the grand secret would not be discovered. The camera operator could leak information if there was a fix. Why risk everything to favor one member over the other.
The funniest part of these conspiracies is the 2013 draft was fixed for the Avs to acquire hometown boy Seth Jones. Not only did they not draft him he fell to the stunned Predators at forth. Most drafts have no consensus number 1. Even McDavid is not a guarantee.

 

[Brodeur]

How thrilling that would be.
"Uh, the four-number combination is....1-4-6-6. Check the tables."
"Did you say 1466 or 1646?"
"1466".
"Okay, hold on."
(10 second pause)
"Huh, I must have grabbed my old reading glasses. Does anyone have a pair or a magnifying glass?"
"Yeah, here's mine."
"Okay, 1466, right?
"Right."
"1466 corresponds to....Ottawa."

The math nerd in me has to point out that the number can't be repeated. And just to clarify, 1-2-3-4 would be the same as 3-4-1-2.

While I agree that an actual live airing wouldn't be terribly exciting, it could be presented in a better way than how it is currently.

For full transparency, they could release the actual combinations allotted to each team before the draft. With each ball drawn, it would take a computer a split-second to figure out which teams are still in the running to win. You could have a graphic at the bottom of the screen displaying the logos of the 14 teams in the lottery. Once a team is eliminated, their logo would get grayed out. Before the last ball is drawn, we could know ahead of time that only four or five teams are left (and which ball(s) each one would need to pop up).

But that is a bit of overkill for what is a relatively simple process.

A third party overseas the lotto and verfy the results--I forget the companies name (it maybe price waterhouse) and if the company monitoring the lotto allows illigal stuff to happen and not report it--it could have collateral affects on that companies legal business as they are used both by the government and business to verify indipendantly outcomes of accounting practices.

It's Ernst & Young who also does the NBA Lottery.

 

[Jumptheshark]

The math nerd in me has to point out that the number can't be repeated. And just to clarify, 1-2-3-4 would be the same as 3-4-1-2.

While I agree that an actual live airing wouldn't be terribly exciting, it could be presented in a better way than how it is currently.

For full transparency, they could release the actual combinations allotted to each team before the draft. With each ball drawn, it would take a computer a split-second to figure out which teams are still in the running to win. You could have a graphic at the bottom of the screen displaying the logos of the 14 teams in the lottery. Once a team is eliminated, their logo would get grayed out. Before the last ball is drawn, we could know ahead of time that only four or five teams are left (and which ball(s) each one would need to pop up).

But that is a bit of overkill for what is a relatively simple process.



It's Ernst & Young who also does the NBA Lottery.

Thanks--I knew it was one of the bigger companies

E @ Y is one of the top accounting firms in the world for reporting and monitoring--now way in hell do they risk their rep to get involved in something as small as the NHL lotto

 

[Gnashville]

Thanks--I knew it was one of the bigger companies

E @ Y is one of the top accounting firms in the world for reporting and monitoring--now way in hell do they risk their rep to get involved in something as small as the NHL lotto

Not only that but these accounting firms use their involvement with the NHL, Oscars, Grammys, ect as an advertising opportunity. That is why you see some suited up guy during the draft and awards show with the firm get a free plug during the broadcast. There is no way that during a meeting with Exxon when someone says "sorry we were late for the meeting we were in Toronto help the NHL fix their draft lottery last night." Too much to lose for these companies if they helped stage a lottery. Also all parties involved could face racketeering charges if the lottery is fixed.