Haha, seriously. That's what I thought when I read the OP. It's been seven years! I think it's safe to call him a bust by now.
Yeah, good point. Both are pretty (equally?) bad.
How did you define "expected value?"
This was an extensive and exhaustive project I did three years ago, analyzing the 1968-2001 drafts and assigning an hf rating to drafted players based on how their careers went. This was done before I had participated in any ATDs so undoubtedly with today's knowledge I would probably do a much better job.
I assigned player "values" intutitively to the hf ratings, on an exponential scale where a 1 (a player who never made it and never really got close) was worth a 1, and a 10 (only assigned to Lemieux) was worth 100. A 9 (a basic franchise player like Pronger) was worth exactly half that, and an 8 (a good top-pairing guy like Kenny Jonsson) was worth just over half that, 26. And so on.
I manipulated the ratings and constantly tweaked the pecking order of players for months until I felt I had it right. I made sure that 9s were much more rare than 8s, and 8s were more rare than 7s, and so on, right down to 1s being the most common type of draft choice. I also put more detail into the hf values by introducing 5.5, 6.5, 7.3, 7.5, 7.8, and every increment of 0.1 from 8.0 to 10.0 as options. (the closest anyone got to 10.0 was Roy's 9.6, still just a value of 75 compared to Lemieux's 100. FYI, Lafleur and Hasek were 9.5, Jagr, Bourque, Bossy, clarke and Messier were 9.4, Potvin, Yzerman, Trottier and Lidstrom were 9.3 - looking down below the 9s, I definitely would have some work to do if I was to revisit this, for example, Kurri and Mogilny are both 8.9, but anyway...)
I then took the average player value at every draft slot for this 33-year period and it was amazing how nicely they all lined up:
1 | 32.71
2 | 24.64
3 | 20.75
4 | 19.38
5 | 18.42
6 | 15.47
7 | 13.92
8 | 16.67
9 | 13.21
10 | 10.89
11 | 13.21
12 | 10.75
13 | 11.78
14 | 12.5
15 | 12.05
16 | 9.1
17 | 10.58
Daigle was rated a 6.5. At his best he was an average 2nd liner, but his career was not a great length, and at his worst he was a belwo average top-6-or-bust type player. that's a value of 10.5 out of an expected 32.71, hence the percentage I quoted earlier.