Speculation: Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part IX (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

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[Amazing Kreiderman]

You mean forwards only, I trust.

I was talking about forwards

 

[Edge]

I was talking about forwards

I tend to agree with you and think we need to come away with some impact forwards at the top of this draft.

Kakko obviously goes a long way toward that end, but there are other forwards who would be a cherry on top. Having said that, we have to be in range to grab them.

I go back and forth on someone like Seider. I don’t think I’d want to trade up for him, but there’s a good possibility that we might reach a point where he’s the prospect with the most tempting upside.

 

[Draft Guru]

Can't go for need at #20, gotta take the BPA but if two guys are close I'd prefer they leaned towards the forward.

Ideally I think the plan is to move up 4-6 spots and hopefully catch a forward that falls.

I'd like to a see a daily poll on here and see what this board's consensus top 20 is. Would be interesting to see how close we'd potentially get to the real top 20, and if the Rangers take our BPA at whichever spot in the top 20 they end up in.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I tend to agree with you and think we need to come away with some impact forwards at the top of this draft.

Kakko obviously goes a long way toward that end, but there are other forwards who would be a cherry on top. Having said that, we have to be in range to grab them.

I go back and forth on someone like Seider. I don’t think I’d want to trade up for him, but there’s a good possibility that we might reach a point where he’s the prospect with the most tempting upside.

At 20 I really want Dorofeyev. If he's no longer there, I want them to target Fagemo.

With the DAL 2nd rounder they should just go with boom-or-bust in Puistola who is probably closest to Brandon Pirri in terms of what he can do. With the number of defensemen we have in our system, I do not see why they would target Seider or Heinola unless they feel they are clearly ahead of others still available

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Can't go for need at #20, gotta take the BPA but if two guys are close I'd prefer they leaned towards the forward.

Ideally I think the plan is to move up 4-6 spots and hopefully catch a forward that falls.

BPA is never just one player though in that range. BPA is a group of players. And within that group, you pick who you are most comfortable with.

 

[Edge]

At 20 I really want Dorofeyev. If he's no longer there, I want them to target Fagemo.

With the DAL 2nd rounder they should just go with boom-or-bust in Puistola who is probably closest to Brandon Pirri in terms of what he can do. With the number of defensemen we have in our system, I do not see why they would target Seider or Heinola unless they feel they are clearly ahead of others still available

In my mind, Dorofyev goes in the teens. Someone looks at what’s on the table and nabs him.

I really like Fagemo, but not at 20. To me that was a kid I would’ve looked at with the second rounder we sent to Carolina.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

In my mind, Dorofyev goes in the teens. Someone looks at what’s on the table and nabs him.

I really like Fagemo, but not at 20. To me that was a kid I would’ve looked at with the second rounder we sent to Carolina.

I think Fagemo is worth a 1st round pick simply because he has already produced as a 1st round pick in his D+1

 

[Draft Guru]

BPA is never just one player though in that range. BPA is a group of players. And within that group, you pick who you are most comfortable with.

Not sure I'm following.

Teams make a list, in numerical order. They go back and forth on this list with their whole organization in the lead up to the draft. This is when they decide who they take over who. If their list reads:

14. Player A
15. B
16. C
17. D
18. E
19. F
20. G

And at #20 they have A, E, F and G to choose from, they take Player A since he's the highest left on their list.

 

[Edge]

Can't go for need at #20, gotta take the BPA but if two guys are close I'd prefer they leaned towards the forward.

Ideally I think the plan is to move up 4-6 spots and hopefully catch a forward that falls.

I'd like to a see a daily poll on here and see what this board's consensus top 20 is. Would be interesting to see how close we'd potentially get to the real top 20, and if the Rangers take our BPA at whichever spot in the top 20 they end up in.

It is my steadfast hope they can find a way to come away with someone like Zegras or Newhook.

But unless that is for sure on the table, I also have to consider the somewhat less enticing possibility of coming away with someone else.

 

[Edge]

I think Fagemo is worth a 1st round pick simply because he has already produced as a 1st round pick in his D+1

I can understand that, and I can’t really disagree with it. But 20 seems too high for me.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Not sure I'm following.

Teams make a list, in numerical order. They go back and forth on this list with their whole organization in the lead up to the draft. This is when they decide who they take over who. If their list reads:

14. Player A
15. B
16. C
17. D
18. E
19. F
20. G

And at #20 they have A, E, F and G to choose from, they take Player A since he's the highest left on their list.

I don't think players are ranked as 1, 2, 3, 4 etc

They are ranked in tiers.

Tier 1: Kakko, Hughes
Tier 2: Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, Caufield, Broberg, Söderström, Dach
Tier 3: Boldy, Lavoie, York, Dorofeyev, Heinola, Kaliyev

Once you are on the clock, you just look at the players available and go with what you feel most confident with within that tier.

That's what I mean with "BPA isn't a single player"

 

[Draft Guru]

I don't think players are ranked as 1, 2, 3, 4 etc

They are ranked in tiers.

Tier 1: Kakko, Hughes
Tier 2: Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, Caufield, Broberg, Söderström, Dach
Tier 3: Boldy, Lavoie, York, Dorofeyev, Heinola, Kaliyev

Once you are on the clock, you just look at the players available and go with what you feel most confident with within that tier.

That's what I mean with "BPA isn't a single player"

Teams may have players grouped into tiers such as those above, but they 100% hammer out a final list that literally ranks everybody from #1 to #100-200~whatever.

There are certain situations where teams will deviate from that list in later rounds (Don Maloney telling his scouts to take the toughest player available when it was their turn to pick in the 3rd round of the '05 draft - Rangers took Dalyn Flatt) but in the 1st round - and especially the top 20 - they don't deviate from that list.

The weeks leading up to the draft is when they have the hotly contested discussions with their scouts to hammer out the final list and decide who over who.

 

[pblawr]

Just draft BPA. It doesn't matter what position someone plays if they aren't any good.

 

[Fvital92]

I don't think players are ranked as 1, 2, 3, 4 etc

They are ranked in tiers.

Tier 1: Kakko, Hughes
Tier 2: Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, Caufield, Broberg, Söderström, Dach
Tier 3: Boldy, Lavoie, York, Dorofeyev, Heinola, Kaliyev

Once you are on the clock, you just look at the players available and go with what you feel most confident with within that tier.

That's what I mean with "BPA isn't a single player"

You forgot Cozens.

 

[SA16]

Not sure I'm following.

Teams make a list, in numerical order. They go back and forth on this list with their whole organization in the lead up to the draft. This is when they decide who they take over who. If their list reads:

14. Player A
15. B
16. C
17. D
18. E
19. F
20. G

And at #20 they have A, E, F and G to choose from, they take Player A since he's the highest left on their list.

Teams aren't able to predict which players in that group will end up the best so they might as well just take the guy who plays a position prefer/they like best for whatever reason. Personally, I would just take whichever forward they like best.

Best player available is kind of a lazy argument when pretty much all research has shown that no team is better than any others at drafting long term, results are relatively random (outside of the top few picks usually), and thus most value charts always are in favor of maximizing the quantity of picks. If all teams are basically the same at drafting and yet all teams have different lists after the top guys that just goes to show you that nobody really knows so you can kind of just take whoever you want, within reason.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

You forgot Cozens.

Not the point

 

[Ghost of jas]

I understand not wanting add another Dman similar to what we already have. But, if the right Dman is on the board, and he’s the best player available, I’m taking him.

 

[Fvital92]

Not the point

Yeah, but you still forgot him.

 

[Edge]

I understand not wanting add another Dman similar to what we already have. But, if the right Dman is on the board, and he’s the best player available, I’m taking him.

At 20, it might very well be the case.

Higher than that and my hope is that it isn’t.

 

[I Eat Crow]

In my mind, Dorofyev goes in the teens. Someone looks at what’s on the table and nabs him.

I really like Fagemo, but not at 20. To me that was a kid I would’ve looked at with the second rounder we sent to Carolina.

I can see Dorofyev being this year's Ty Dellandrea, or I can see him slipping to the 2nd round. No in between.

 

[Edge]

I can see Dorofyev being this year's Ty Dellandrea, or I can see him slipping to the 2nd round. No in between.

When I get beyond my desire to come away with one of the centers, Dorofyev might be my next real “want” at forward.

 

[BKGooner]

My perfect draft for this year once the Rangers won the lottery was to get the remaining bounty of conditional first rounders and come away with Kakko, Newhook and Dorofyev. Dmen could be added via whatever second round picks were left after moving assets to make the first round happen.

 

[I Eat Crow]

When I get beyond my desire to come away with one of the centers, Dorofyev might be my next real “want” at forward.

To be honest, this is my take on Dorofyev.

He's a good to great prospect that should go anywhere between 15 and 40th overall. That being said, I'm also looking at the contents of the prospect pool and seeing what is needed. Dorofyev is a very similar prospect to Kravtsov in many ways. He's a very heady, cerebral player in both zones that protects the pick well and has some good skill.

I'm not entirely convinced that Dorofyev will be the BPA at 20 if the Rangers pick in that spot. There is going to be a surprise faller or two that will be there, and I believe that there will be other players that I hold in as high regard or higher regard in Dorofyev available in that spot. When push comes to shove, I'll pick the player with a different skill set that the team is lacking that's as good or an even better prospect than Dorofyev.

For example, I have York ranked somewhere in the early to mid teens. If he's available at 20, I'm taking him.

 

[Edge]

To be honest, this is my take on Dorofyev.

He's a good to great prospect that should go anywhere between 15 and 40th overall. That being said, I'm also looking at the contents of the prospect pool and seeing what is needed. Dorofyev is a very similar prospect to Kravtsov in many ways. He's a very heady, cerebral player in both zones that protects the pick well and has some good skill.

I'm not entirely convinced that Dorofyev will be the BPA at 20 if the Rangers pick in that spot. There is going to be a surprise faller or two that will be there, and I believe that there will be other players that I hold in as high regard or higher regard in Dorofyev available in that spot. When push comes to shove, I'll pick the player with a different skill set that the team is lacking that's as good or an even better prospect than Dorofyev.

For example, I have York ranked somewhere in the early to mid teens. If he's available at 20, I'm taking him.

Funny you should mention York because he’s a guy I’ve had more or less neck and neck with Dorofyev for most of the season.

I’d love to take him at 20.

Hell, I’d love to find a path to Zegras or Newhook in the 10-14 range and still find a way to grab York a little later.