Confirmed with Link: Douglas Murray signed 1 year deal ($1.5m)

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Roulin

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Mar 21, 2007
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They really don't, is the point I just made - last year aside, of course, as explained. You've claimed an observable and sharp decline since 2009. I'd like to see a sample of the statistical "proof" since then that leads you to be concerned about what we're going to get out of a $1.5 million, 1 year investment in Murray.

Season / Corsi / Relative Corsi (relative to teammates)

07-08 / +2.19 / -4.1
08-09 / +5.62 / -3
09-10 / +1.8 / -1.5
10-11 / +4.29 / -5.9
11-12 / -7.93 / -16.2
12-13 / -12.6 / -14.3

Not as far back as 2009, but there's evidence of a steep decline going back more than just last season.
 
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Andy

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Jun 26, 2008
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A lot of people dicephered is play looking only at stats too ...

Yes because determining someone's character from a 3minute video which he responds yes or no to ridiculous questions is exactly the same as drawing conclusions on a player's playing ability by analyzing advanced stats over the course of a player's career.
 

Analyzer*

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Not saying he's comparable, but if advance stats exist 20-30 years ago it would have showed that Phil Housley, Paul Coffey, Brett Hull and others were terrible hockey players based on stats. To base your opinion on advanced stats is pretty much the same thing as basing your opinion on a 3 minute video on yes and no questions.
 

Andy

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Not saying he's comparable, but if advance stats exist 20-30 years ago it would have showed that Phil Housley, Paul Coffey, Brett Hull and others were terrible hockey players based on stats. To base your opinion on advanced stats is pretty much the same thing as basing your opinion on a 3 minute video on yes and no questions.

When Murray is putting up 80 and 90 point seasons as a defender, I think we can let some things slide regarding defensive zone play.
 

Roulin

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Mar 21, 2007
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Not saying he's comparable, but if advance stats exist 20-30 years ago it would have showed that Phil Housley, Paul Coffey, Brett Hull and others were terrible hockey players based on stats. To base your opinion on advanced stats is pretty much the same thing as basing your opinion on a 3 minute video on yes and no questions.

It's a pretty safe bet that the "advance stats" that don't like Murray would love Hull. Especially in his prime when he was finding ways of getting 380-400 shots per season.
 

Kenny Powders

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Apr 6, 2005
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Yes because determining someone's character from a 3minute video which he responds yes or no to ridiculous questions is exactly the same as drawing conclusions on a player's playing ability by analyzing advanced stats over the course of a player's career.

I never pointed the video as why?

I just said that people make conclusion about a video the same way they do conclusion looking at stats only.
 

Andy

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Jun 26, 2008
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I never pointed the video as why?

I just said that people make conclusion about a video the same way they do conclusion looking at stats only.

Sure, but when you add in the context they aren't comparable at all. He drew a conclusion from a 3 minute video with stupid questions. Others are drawing conclusions using a player's advance stats over the course of a career. Again not at all comparable.
 

Forsead

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Apr 7, 2009
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I like this method to look for the effectiveness and usefulness of defensives defensemans in the NHL.

http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/slasher98/41485/

I've done it for Murray :

Season/total

2007-2008; 60,04944
2008-2009; -10,73856
2009-2010; 207,18432
2010-2011; 174,93984
2011-2012; 172,593
2012-2013; -8,4728

I see only a decline last season and the guy played much more on the PK than normally (2,8 minutes contrary to 1,8 minutes the year before, probably part of the reason that he got a negative corsi relative QOC) which IMO contributed alot to the result. Though he probably also was less effective, because he got sheltered ice time, then again we talk about only last season in a shortened half season which doesn't help older big slow defensemans.
 

Roulin

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Mar 21, 2007
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I like this method to look for the effectiveness and usefulness of defensives defensemans in the NHL.

http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/slasher98/41485/

I've done it for Murray :

Season/total

2007-2008; 60,04944
2008-2009; -10,73856
2009-2010; 207,18432
2010-2011; 174,93984
2011-2012; 172,593
2012-2013; -8,4728

I see only a decline last season and the guy played much more on the PK than normally (2,8 minutes contrary to 1,8 minutes the year before, probably part of the reason that he got a negative corsi relative QOC) which IMO contributed alot to the result. Though he probably also was less effective, because he got sheltered ice time, then again we talk about only last season in a shortened half season which doesn't help older big slow defensemans.

At behindthenet, hockeyanalysis, and everywhere else I see them compiled or quoted, Corsi numbers are separated into 5v5, 4v5, etc... unless otherwise noted, it's generally assumed the numbers being quoted are 5v5. PK TOI shouldn't have any effect.
 

Analyzer*

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When Murray is putting up 80 and 90 point seasons as a defender, I think we can let some things slide regarding defensive zone play.

I'm sure people will let the odd slip up go when Murray crushes someone.

Murray isn't the best player in the World, but he's the type of d we need. He obviously needs to be paired with someone who's mobile.

When he's clearing the crease and defending teammates people will tend to forget about the Corsi and come to appreciate that he was a need.

If everyone wants, we could have gone and tried to outbid the Devils for Ryane Clowe.

This thread is growing faster than Murray could ever skate.
 

le_sean

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Oct 21, 2006
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Not saying he's comparable, but if advance stats exist 20-30 years ago it would have showed that Phil Housley, Paul Coffey, Brett Hull and others were terrible hockey players based on stats. To base your opinion on advanced stats is pretty much the same thing as basing your opinion on a 3 minute video on yes and no questions.

I wouldn't care if a player slept in the defensive zone if he scored 86 goals like Brett.
 

Ice Poutine

LA POUTINE IS BACK!
Feb 18, 2006
11,914
2
ON MY CHAIR
In the next couple of years this entirely Swedish lineup may go on the ice.
Now wouldnt Don Cherry in Toronto find that nice! :)

Presenting tonight the Montreal Swedes!

Erik Nystrom, LW
Jacob De La Rose, LW:
Sebastian Collberg, RW,
Douglas Murray, D
Magnus Nygren, D

vg1vMQS.gif
 

Andy

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Jun 26, 2008
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Montreal
I'm sure people will let the odd slip up go when Murray crushes someone.

Murray isn't the best player in the World, but he's the type of d we need. He obviously needs to be paired with someone who's mobile.

When he's clearing the crease and defending teammates people will tend to forget about the Corsi and come to appreciate that he was a need.

If everyone wants, we could have gone and tried to outbid the Devils for Ryane Clowe.

This thread is growing faster than Murray could ever skate.

I think this is a good example of the problem people like Mathman and others have pointed out.

Sure, Murray fills a need that the team missing, but the problem they see is that Habs fans have been so deprived of toughness that whenever a player who has an ounce of it is acquired, this one ability trumps all their other flaws that player may have, even if it is detrimental to the team. The point they are trying to make is that while toughness is needed, the player acquired could still bring a negative impact to the team by not being good in the other areas the team also needs filling.

Personally, I think Murray is a good acquisition and that the problems MathMan has brought up are over-stated to a certain extent. That being said, he still brings up a valid point, toughness for toughness sake, even if it is filling a hole in the lineup does not necessarily equate to a better team. It is quite possible to bring in a tough player who is overall worse than the players they are replacing. The idea can be expressed in "1 step forward, but 2 steps back" or "so we fixed this hole, but we've created another."

I think this is what MathMan's concern is, even though it doesn't get articulated as such.

Also, no matter how much we want to imagine otherwise, advanced stats are useful, that's why actual nhl teams employ them (Boston, San Jose and the Kings have admitted to their use and have all been successful teams, could advance stats be the reason Murray was shipped from San Jose in the first place?). Like everything else in life, taken to an extreme they can be useless. In moderation, they should be used to complement visual observation and vice versa. That being said, MathMan brings up something extremely relevant, many observed last year that Murray slowed down quite significantly and the advanced stats show and agree with this visual observation.

Now like I said, I don't think the decline should be a problem considering Murray will play a depth/bottom pairing role. In that case it's a good signing. But people shouldn't be scoffing at advanced stats, MathMan and the question surrounding Murray's supposed decline since it's not just habs fans who noticed this, but San Jose and Pittsburgh fans as well. Where MathMan goes wrong in my opinion is that he thinks Murray can longer play an effective role.

But I understand his concern that his acquisition might be reflective of a mindset which he thinks might be detrimental to the team in the long-run, that is, acquiring toughness for the sake of it.
 

Forsead

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Apr 7, 2009
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Québec City
At behindthenet, hockeyanalysis, and everywhere else I see them compiled or quoted, Corsi numbers are separated into 5v5, 4v5, etc... unless otherwise noted, it's generally assumed the numbers being quoted are 5v5. PK TOI shouldn't have any effect.

You're right I forgot about that, it probably isn't that then. Though I still think IMO that's a good way to show that even if he had a bad season in 2012-2013 (nobody is trying to say otherwise), it was the first time it happened and we can't talk about a big decline throught the years.
 

Habit11

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Dec 18, 2009
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When MB trades high picks/blue chip prospects or talent from the roster to acquire said toughness then maybe it would be a cause for concern. If he cared so much about toughness briere/desharnais wouldn't be under contract. For the record I am not on board with some of MB's signings, but in direct response to the over analysis of the Murray signing, who won't be more than a #6, and will probably get bumped when Emelin returns, I really fail to see the extrapolation that some are deriving from it. I also keep in the back of my mind that he said he was going to build thru the draft, so it doesn't surprise me when he fills sweaters with plugs like Murray.
 
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