Speculation: Don't look now, Hawks 2 points from the 5th place in the lottery

[AmericanDream]

Perilini-Arnason-Stalberg

you do know you have an impersonator out there with your username that is really into Toews Toasters right????

 

[ChiHawks10]

you do know you have an impersonator out there with your username that is really into Toews Toasters right????

He owns 90 of them.

Flag that under things to never waste a couple thousand dollars on. Charity or not.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Specific seeds, no. But wildcard teams (what the Hawks would be) VS the field is something very different.

Right, but anyone vs the field is something different. In the time span you quote, only 1 presidents trophy winner has 1 the cup (Hawks in 13). The "best" team won less than 10% of the time.

I guess it semantics, but "anything can happen" to me means that its within the realm of possibilities for lower seeds to win, not that every team has the exact same chance at winning every year.

We like to look back at cup winners with conformation bias and act like they were always going to win because of how great they were. But in reality there's so many little moments that could have changed the course of history. A bounce of the puck here, a bad call there. The truth is that every given year there are a lot of teams that are capable and have a realistic shot of winning the cup. That doesn't mean every playoff team mind you, but it's often more than we think looking back in hindsight IMO.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Right, but anyone vs the field is something different. In the time span you quote, only 1 presidents trophy winner has 1 the cup (Hawks in 13). The "best" team won less than 10% of the time.

I guess it semantics, but "anything can happen" to me means that its within the realm of possibilities for lower seeds to win, not that every team has the exact same chance at winning every year.

We like to look back at cup winners with conformation bias and act like they were always going to win because of how great they were. But in reality there's so many little moments that could have changed the course of history. A bounce of the puck here, a bad call there. The truth is that every given year there are a lot of teams that are capable and have a realistic shot of winning the cup. That doesn't mean every playoff team mind you, but it's often more than we think looking back in hindsight IMO.

Well said.

 

[jaysoneil]

You can't win the 'Ship if you don't make the post season.

How many #1 draft picks since the 2011-12 draft have won a Cup? Zero. Statistically speaking, those are worse odds than a #8 seed winning a Cup in the same time frame.

You don't tank your shot at making the post season and running for a Cup for a draft pick, lol. Especially considering #88 & #19 are in their 30s. If the Hawks blow the next 5 games, fine, look for next year. However, with the West being as tight as it is, there's no reason to not shoot for a Wild Card.

With that said, it wouldn't surprise me if Bowman made a boneheaded trade at the TDL.

 

[Hawkaholic]

How many #1 draft picks since the 2011-12 draft have won a Cup? Zero.

Well that's not fair, how many of those #1 picks were Edmonton Oilers? LOL

 

[x Tame Impala]

Right, but anyone vs the field is something different. In the time span you quote, only 1 presidents trophy winner has 1 the cup (Hawks in 13). The "best" team won less than 10% of the time

We’re not talking about the Hawks being a 2 or 3 seed in the central and calculating their odds from there. We’re talking about the Hawks going on what would have to be a legendary run, barely making the playoffs as a wildcard team, and then winning the Cup.

Look at my Cup Finals list a few posts up. Middle seeds win the Cup or make it to the Finals all the time. I haven’t done the math but the statistical difference between let’s say a #5 seed winning or a #3 seed winning are probably too close to be relevant, which is why I didn’t use those data points. Distinguishing between the odds of a wild card team’s (2019 Hawks) and non-wild card playoff team’s odds is a totally fair and more precise analysis of the data. They’re the two worst teams going into the playoffs. They’re the two lowest seeds in the conference and they have to play the best teams possible in every round.

You either see the distinction or you don’t, but it’s there IMHO.

guess it semantics, but "anything can happen" to me means that its within the realm of possibilities for lower seeds to win, not that every team has the exact same chance at winning every year

Again, I’m fine with that mentality as long as the front office doesn’t trade away valuable pieces at the deadline.

But in reality there's so many little moments that could have changed the course of history. A bounce of the puck here, a bad call there. The truth is that every given year there are a lot of teams that are capable and have a realistic shot of winning the cup

I said as much in my previous post. I’ll add that good teams make their own luck and are good enough to take advantage of it. These Hawks are not good enough

 

[ChiHawks10]

We’re not talking about the Hawks being a 2 or 3 seed in the central and calculating their odds from there. We’re talking about the Hawks going on what would have to be a legendary run, barely making the playoffs as a wildcard team, and then winning the Cup.

Look at my Cup Finals list a few posts up. Middle seeds win the Cup or make it to the Finals all the time. I haven’t done the math but the statistical difference between let’s say a #5 seed winning or a #3 seed winning are probably too close to be relevant, which is why I didn’t use those data points. Distinguishing between the odds of a wild card team’s (2019 Hawks) and non-wild card playoff team’s odds is a totally fair and more precise analysis of the data. They’re the two worst teams going into the playoffs. They’re the two lowest seeds in the conference and they have to play the best teams possible in every round.

You either see the distinction or you don’t, but it’s there IMHO.



Again, I’m fine with that mentality as long as the front office doesn’t trade away valuable pieces at the deadline.



I said as much in my previous post. I’ll add that good teams make their own luck and are good enough to take advantage of it. These Hawks are not good enough

That's not always true. See 2017 Preds. There are numerous teams that are very good that end up as wildcards for a multitude of reasons, and they may not win the Cup, but they end up getting far in the POs. Injuries, a goalie going cold for a stretch, coaching changes, or whatever else you can think of could slot a very good team into a wildcard position.

 

[x Tame Impala]

How many #1 draft picks since the 2011-12 draft have won a Cup? Zero. Statistically speaking, those are worse odds than a #8 seed winning a Cup in the same time frame.

How many top 3 picks have won and/or played in the Finals since the lockout?

 

[x Tame Impala]

That's not always true. See 2017 Preds. There are numerous teams that are very good that end up as wildcards for a multitude of reasons, and they may not win the Cup, but they end up getting far in the POs. Injuries, a goalie going cold for a stretch, coaching changes, or whatever else you can think of could slot a very good team into a wildcard position.

A wildcard team has won the Cup once in 11 years. A wildcard team has made the finals two other times in 11 years. Wildcard teams are generally that low in the standings for a reason

 

[ChiHawks10]

A wildcard team has won the Cup once in 11 years. A wildcard team has made the finals two other times in 11 years. Wildcard teams are generally that low in the standings for a reason

I'm just saying there are exceptions. It's obviously not the rule.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Let's be honest, looking at the past 10 years of the 7/8 teams in the west getting in the playoffs isn't comparable to what we have in the West today. The West is clearly A LOT weaker than it has ever been, so it's easier to make the playoffs, and going to be A LOT harder to beat a top seeded team.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

We’re not talking about the Hawks being a 2 or 3 seed in the central and calculating their odds from there. We’re talking about the Hawks going on what would have to be a legendary run, barely making the playoffs as a wildcard team, and then winning the Cup.

Look at my Cup Finals list a few posts up. Middle seeds win the Cup or make it to the Finals all the time. I haven’t done the math but the statistical difference between let’s say a #5 seed winning or a #3 seed winning are probably too close to be relevant, which is why I didn’t use those data points. Distinguishing between the odds of a wild card team’s (2019 Hawks) and non-wild card playoff team’s odds is a totally fair and more precise analysis of the data. They’re the two worst teams going into the playoffs. They’re the two lowest seeds in the conference and they have to play the best teams possible in every round.

You either see the distinction or you don’t, but it’s there IMHO.



Again, I’m fine with that mentality as long as the front office doesn’t trade away valuable pieces at the deadline.



I said as much in my previous post. I’ll add that good teams make their own luck and are good enough to take advantage of it. These Hawks are not good enough

Sorry if this wasn't clear, but we are in complete agreement with regards to this years Hawks team. I don't want them to add as I don't think this team is good enough to warrant doing so. Full stop.


The rest of my comments where in reference to this statement, disregarding this Hawks team...

Of all the sayings in hockey, I hate "just make it in and anything can happen" more than all of them.

I don't hate the statement and think it actually applies pretty well to the NHL.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Sorry if this wasn't clear, but we are in complete agreement with regards to this years Hawks team. I don't want them to add as I don't think this team is good enough to warrant doing so. Full stop.


The rest of my comments where in reference to this statement, disregarding this Hawks team...



I don't hate the statement and think it actually applies pretty well to the NHL.

I disagree, statistically. So we’ll just leave it there

 

[ColdSteel2]

Forget statistics, listen to your gut/intuition.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Forget statistics, listen to your gut/intuition.

Statistically, upsets happen much more often in the NHL than any other sport. That's what the saying "anything can happen" means to me.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Statistically, upsets happen much more often in the NHL than any other sport. That's what the saying "anything can happen" means to me.

Right. I’m talking about taking that a step further and separating who out of the “anything can happen” group actually has a chance of anything happening.

Put in rational terms, our biggest weakness is defense and goaltending and that is why anything cannot happen for this team, of course, IMO.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Right. I’m talking about taking that a step further and separating who out of the “anything can happen” group actually has a chance of anything happening.

Put in rational terms, our biggest weakness is defense and goaltending and that is why anything cannot happen for this team, of course, IMO.

Gotcha, I think was misinterpreting what you meant.

 

[Malagahawks]

Updated thread title with today's win. Many peeps were right, we have won 7 straight and picked up a full 14 points but have not made as a big a dent or jump in the standings as I would have thought. This is incredibly difficult to make up ground.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Minnesota’s season went with Koivu. Now let’s see if Dallas can hang on with Benn playing like ass.

 

[HawkNut]

Updated thread title with today's win. Many peeps were right, we have won 7 straight and picked up a full 14 points but have not made as a big a dent or jump in the standings as I would have thought. This is incredibly difficult to make up ground.

The fact that this team has an actual possibility to make up ground after where they were earlier this year is incredibly voluminous.

 

[TheSting]

Updated thread title with today's win. Many peeps were right, we have won 7 straight and picked up a full 14 points but have not made as a big a dent or jump in the standings as I would have thought. This is incredibly difficult to make up ground.

worst case scenario is for the Bhawks to finish the season out of the playoffs with this run and have nothing but a 10-15 slot first round pick to show for it...

 

[Malagahawks]

Welp, we have lost 2 games in convincing fashion with terrible D and multiple turnovers/giveaways. I am back on the fence leaning towards a tsnk finish because the reality is we just don't have the speacial teams or defensive talent to hang with the big boys. That winning streak was just a flash in the pan. Only 5 points in front of the bottom 3.

 

[TheSting]

Welp, we have lost 2 games in convincing fashion with terrible D and multiple turnovers/giveaways. I am back on the fence leaning towards a tsnk finish because the reality is we just don't have the speacial teams or defensive talent to hang with the big boys. That winning streak was just a flash in the pan. Only 5 points in front of the bottom 3.

Yep. They played 2 playoff teams in the Bruins and Blue Jackets and got smoked at a time they were playing their best hockey. Neither game was competitive. Put a fork in em, they done. Start Delia the rest of the way for development and sit Ward. Call up Joker as well.

 

[ColdSteel2]

We need a rusty Crow to come in right about now. Let’s see if he’s still got it and let the chips fall where they may.