Silver Seven Does it Matter if the Sens Ever Win the Stanley Cup?

[Beech]

There is a salary cap, revenue share, a reverse order draft, a reverse order waiver claim, central scouting a league run draft combine. Free agency is at age 27 or 7 years of service.

All of these make the NHL the single most competitive league in North America. And probably in the world if you focus on large leagues. As a result, each and every franchise should have a near identical chance and expectation of wining a cup.

However!! 32 teams. That is a massive number. Factor in repeat winners (Chicago 3, LA 2, Pittsburgh 2, Tampa bay 2 all in the last 12 years or so), it would suggest that a cup may not be possible for a period of almost 100 years.

So the basic question is; does it matter? The answer is Yes, even though it may be a 100 years, I still want it and will be disappointed if it is not achieved. The bigger/deeper question is: is the organization doing all it can to win? is it being run properly and thus maximizing its effort to win?

No cup in my-life time will be easier to take if I believe that the organization is maximizing its effort. The last 10-12 years has left me shaken.

 

[NyQuil]

There is a salary cap, revenue share, a reverse order draft, a reverse order waiver claim, central scouting a league run draft combine. Free agency is at age 27 or 7 years of service.

All of these make the NHL the single most competitive league in North America. And probably in the world if you focus on large leagues. As a result, each and every franchise should have a near identical chance and expectation of wining a cup.

However!! 32 teams. That is a massive number. Factor in repeat winners (Chicago 3, LA 2, Pittsburgh 2, Tampa bay 2 all in the last 12 years or so), it would suggest that a cup may not be possible for a period of almost 100 years.

So the basic question is; does it matter? The answer is Yes, even though it may be a 100 years, I still want it and will be disappointed if it is not achieved. The bigger/deeper question is: is the organization doing all it can to win? is it being run properly and thus maximizing its effort to win?

No cup in my-life time will be easier to take if I believe that the organization is maximizing its effort. The last 10-12 years has left me shaken.

There’s still much less room for error on our part.

For one thing, the cap kept going up and the capacity for small market teams to spend to the cap gets increasingly challenged. COVID has halted this trend albeit likely temporarily.

Secondly, costs that are not related to player salaries still have to be paid, whether it is executive, scouting, coaching, or health and training staff, facility and equipment costs, etc. It’s a competitive environment with no cap.

Thirdly, larger teams may have more room to escape from bad decision-making in terms of buying out player salaries by measure of raw wealth, and can more easily weaponize cap room through front-loaded contracts, easing the capacity to trade them later when the real salary dollars are lower and appealing to poorer teams.

Fourthly, as a destination, Ottawa has the benefit of being hockey conscious but is not probably as desirable as some other cities in North America either in terms of climate or tax situation.

It’s much more egalitarian than other leagues but I don’t see near identical situations.

 

[Beech]

There’s still much less room for error on our part.

For one thing, the cap kept going up and the capacity for small market teams to spend to the cap gets increasingly challenged. COVID has halted this trend albeit likely temporarily.

Secondly, costs that are not related to player salaries still have to be paid, whether it is executive, scouting, coaching, or health and training staff, facility and equipment costs, etc.

Thirdly, larger teams may have more room to escape from bad decision-making in terms of buying out player salaries by measure of raw wealth, and can more easily weaponize cap room through front-loaded contracts, easing the capacity to trade them later when the real salary dollars are lower and appealing to poorer teams.

Fourthly, as a destination, Ottawa has the benefit of being hockey conscious but is not probably as desirable as some other cities in North America either in terms of climate or tax situation.

It’s much more egalitarian than other leagues but I don’t see virtually identical situations.

you saw Pierre^2, 7 keys to wining (key players). I actually believe that. I see it in reverse order. Goalie, defensive defense-man, offensive defense-man, and so on. Many athletes are 1) afraid enough 2) nice enough to make some allowance. And so, 27 or 7 years, is more often than not, 28 or 8 years.

So, a young goalie can be drafted at 18, by 20 he is in your line-up. And you have him for 8 years. years 1-3 are ELC. Years 4, 5 are bridge. Years 6,7 and 8 are a big contract. Ditto for the two Dmen, Ditto for the 4 forwards.

so a 2-3 year bottom stint should get you 3-4 of those guys. A one year decent and a one year ascent, should net you 2 more..You are at 5 or 6. And still inside the bridge deal time frame of acquisition 1. So players 5 or 6 will come as you are dealing with big contract time for player 1 and 2 only.

This is the Chicago model. It is the LA model as well.

So even an impoverished team should be able to do it..the issue is always the same..F'ng up the draft and missing..say a Logan Brown. Imagine if he had been rock solid. He would be the teams #1 Center. If Lassi Thomson was a tad more up to speed and not taking the more scenic route to get here. If Collin White had become our Patrice Bergeron! Handled properly the Sens should have been under the 2015-2020 draft umbrella and should have been "at the door", all the while paying pennies.

No grantees of wining a cup, but almost surely a top 5/ top 10 NHL team and on a shoe string budget.

 

[ColinM]

However!! 32 teams. That is a massive number. Factor in repeat winners (Chicago 3, LA 2, Pittsburgh 2, Tampa bay 2 all in the last 12 years or so), it would suggest that a cup may not be possible for a period of almost 100 years.

So the basic question is; does it matter? The answer is Yes, even though it may be a 100 years, I still want it and will be disappointed if it is not achieved. The bigger/deeper question is: is the organization doing all it can to win? is it being run properly and thus maximizing its effort to win?

No cup in my-life time will be easier to take if I believe that the organization is maximizing its effort. The last 10-12 years has left me shaken.

I feel the same way. There's going to be fanbases that go an entire lifetime without seeing their team win the cup. Personally I think if any of Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Buffalo, Columbus, Carolina, Florida, Nashville, or Arizona win a cup within the next 40 years it will be a one off of 2019 Toronto Raptors proportions.

The better question is, "Is the franchise doing everything possible to win or are they finding ways to shoot themselves in the foot?" In the early 2000s I was definitely convinced they did everything possible and were just a better goaltender away from winning a cup. Over the past 5 to 10 years, finding ways to shoot themselves in the foot became the priority, which doesn't install a lot of confidence.

In my adulthood I've watched the Canadian Olympic Men's team win 3 gold medals and I've seen my favorite NFL team win the Super Bowl. It's fun but its entertainment. I'll die having lived a fulfilled life either way.

 

[topshelf15]

You can,t win a cup on a budget,this much is pretty certain...So unless this changes ,Ottawa has no hope of being anything more than a mushy middle team hoping for a fluke run once and awhile...This has needed to change yesterday ,but with the current ownership Iam not holding my breath

 

[Sweatred]

You can,t win a cup on a budget,this much is pretty certain...So unless this changes ,Ottawa has no hope of being anything more than a mushy middle team hoping for a fluke run once and awhile...This has needed to change yesterday ,but with the current ownership Iam not holding my breath

Ottawa’s attendance has been the worst in the league recently … something has to give to fuel some spending ability.

List of National Hockey League attendance figures - Wikipedia

 

[topshelf15]

Ottawa’s attendance has been the worst in the league recently … something has to give to fuel some spending ability.

List of National Hockey League attendance figures - Wikipedia

So what happened when we we were top 10 ??We didnt spend back then either...

 

[Sweatred]

So what happened when we we were top 10 ??We didnt spend back then either...

Top ten ? Like 15 years ago ? We need to stop living in that bubble … the building isn’t new, it doesn’t auto draw fans like it did. We spent well but keep in mind fan attendance doesn’t translate equally to revenue. We have some of the cheapest tickets in the league. Combine that with league low attendance and you don’t get a lot of money to spread around.

League and team revenue is well reported now. Find a year Melynk horded cash and I’ll apologize for him. If we want a cup us fans are going to have to pay for a cup.

 

[topshelf15]

Top ten ? Like 15 years ago ? We need to stop living in that bubble … the building isn’t new, it doesn’t auto draw fans like it did. We spent well but keep in mind fan attendance doesn’t translate equally to revenue. We have some of the cheapest tickets in the league. Combine that with league low attendance and you don’t get a lot of money to spread around.

League and team revenue is well reported now. Find a year Melynk horded cash and I’ll apologize for him. If we want a cup us fans are going to have to pay for a cup.

Lol ,still dancing around the question...EM has been afforded many years of loyal fans...Willing to support the team,but everything has its limits...He has promised so much since he has bought the team and delivered very little

 

[Xspyrit]

Lol ,still dancing around the question...EM has been afforded many years of loyal fans...Willing to support the team,but everything has its limits...He has promised so much since he has bought the team and delivered very little

Reality is it's such a small market... Not a really big populated area to begin with and there's a lot of loyal Habs/Leafs fans, plus maybe a bunch of fans who don't spend their entire sports budget on just the Sens (but habs/Leafs too). The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is frequent runs like the Habs just did, or even worse a Stanley Cup and/or a true perennial contender. Imagine if the Leafs were to become the next Lightning

I think the NHL and the guy everybody hates (Bettman) are what is keeping this market safe if Melnyk really wanted to relocate the team. Sens really need a good decade, can't afford to be a perennial loser like the Sabres, Oilers, etc. They need more committed loyal fans

 

[topshelf15]

Reality is it's such a small market... Not a really big populated area to begin with but there's a lot of loyal Habs and Leafs fans, plus maybe a bunch of fans that don't entirely spend their sports budget on the Sens (but habs/Leafs too). The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is frequent runs like the Habs just did, or even worse a Stanley Cup and/or a true perennial contender. Imagine if the Leafs were to become the next Lightning

I think the NHL and the guy everybody hates (Bettman) are what is keeping this market safe if Melnyk really wanted to relocate the team. Sens a good decade, can't afford to be a perennial loser like the Sabres, Oilers, etc. They need more loyal fans

You cant build to a budget every cycle and expect to drive up fan interest...This team has never crossed the 70 mil threshold in its entire history...They need to be able to spend at least once and awhile

 

[aragorn]

Reality is it's such a small market... Not a really big populated area to begin with but there's a lot of loyal Habs and Leafs fans, plus maybe a bunch of fans that don't entirely spend their sports budget on the Sens (but habs/Leafs too). The worst thing that could happen to this franchise is frequent runs like the Habs just did, or even worse a Stanley Cup and/or a true perennial contender. Imagine if the Leafs were to become the next Lightning

I think the NHL and the guy everybody hates (Bettman) are what is keeping this market safe if Melnyk really wanted to relocate the team. Sens a good decade, can't afford to be a perennial loser like the Sabres, Oilers, etc. They need more loyal fans

Agreed. The market of hockey fans in this area is small, the amount of Montreal fans because we live next door to Quebec is huge, along with the number of stinking loyal Leaf fans is also huge. Add to that the number of fans of other teams other than the Sens & it's no wonder that they have trouble selling season tickets although game day sales for some games (Montreal/Toronto) are usually sell outs. A couple of friends of mine who are Hab fans were talking about cheering for a new team (Ottawa) because the Habs were losing to Toronto in the playoffs. Their tune changed miraculously as they beat Toronto & moved on. Some fans are fickle that way & refuse to support the team or buying tickets when they are losing & only support them when they are winning.

This team needs to be successful for the fans to stay loyal, casual fans will lose interest quickly when the team sucks & they don't have enough season ticket holders who are loyal to the team although EM has something to do with that. I have RedBlacks season tickets, but they are not my CFL team, I go because I like football & my buddy loves the team, but since they won the cup & the team has sucked lately their fans have dropped off significantly too. Ottawa had a good run in the Alfie yrs, a couple of good runs with EK, but now need to build a winner again so fans can come back. Of course, Covid hasn't help matters for anyone. I like what they are building & hope for the future of this team although nothing is certain in sports & they need to be successful to get the city behind them again.

 

[Xspyrit]

You cant build to a budget every cycle and expect to drive up fan interest...This team has never crossed the 70 mil threshold in its entire history...They need to be able to spend at least once and awhile

Agreed that the timing to go "all in" financially is now as the rebuild is coming to an end. Like I said, the Sens need to be significantly more successful than both the Habs and Leafs. The Habs last run hurt but as long as it stays an "isolated event" it could be fine but the next 10 years are kinda crucial.

Agreed. The market of hockey fans in this area is small, the amount of Montreal fans because we live next door to Quebec is huge, along with the number of stinking loyal Leaf fans is also huge. Add to that the number of fans of other teams other than the Sens & it's no wonder that they have trouble selling season tickets although game day sales for some games (Montreal/Toronto) are usually sell outs. A couple of friends of mine who are Hab fans were talking about cheering for a new team (Ottawa) because the Habs were losing to Toronto in the playoffs. Their tune changed miraculously as they beat Toronto & moved on. Some fans are fickle that way & refuse to support the team or buying tickets when they are losing & only support them when they are winning.

This team needs to be successful for the fans to stay loyal, casual fans will lose interest quickly when the team sucks & they don't have enough season ticket holders who are loyal to the team although EM has something to do with that. I have RedBlacks season tickets, but they are not my CFL team, I go because I like football & my buddy loves the team, but since they won the cup & the team has sucked lately their fans have dropped off significantly too. Ottawa had a good run in the Alfie yrs, a couple of good runs with EK, but now need to build a winner again so fans can come back. Of course, Covid hasn't help matters for anyone. I like what they are building & hope for the future of this team although nothing is certain in sports & they need to be successful to get the city behind them again.

The Habs have barely played for 0.500 the last 2 seasons (55-52-20) and yet they had playoffs success. Missed opportunity to gain some ground if the Sens were to "rise again" in the near future. That's one reason I was surprised to see many Sens fans (not just on HF) cheer for a direct rival that is taking a big part of their team's market. The NHL is a business after all.

 

[aragorn]

Agreed that the timing to go "all in" financially is now as the rebuild is coming to an end. Like I said, the Sens need to be significantly more successful than both the Habs and Leafs. The Habs last run hurt but as long as it stays an "isolated event" it could be fine but the next 10 years are kinda crucial.



The Habs have barely played for 0.500 the last 2 seasons (55-52-20) and yet they had playoffs success. Missed opportunity to gain some ground if the Sens were to "rise again" in the near future. That's one reason I was surprised to see many Sens fans (not just on HF) cheer for a direct rival that is taking a big part of their team's market. The NHL is a business after all.

A lot of us used to be Hab fans before Ottawa got a team.

 

[Sweatred]

You cant build to a budget every cycle and expect to drive up fan interest...This team has never crossed the 70 mil threshold in its entire history...They need to be able to spend at least once and awhile

I thought we were mid $70’s a couple of times - maybe propped up with dead money. Buyouts, bonuses (Heatley) and such still cost the owner money.

I look at Melynk for any sign he is pocketing money instead of putting it into the club … i can’t find any but I see lots of years he lost millions.

Is there any year he pocketed $20 million or whatever is too much for us to accept ?

 

[aragorn]

I thought we were mid $70’s a couple of times - maybe propped up with dead money. Buyouts, bonuses (Heatley) and such still cost the owner money.

I look at Melynk for any sign he is pocketing money instead of putting it into the club … i can’t find any but I see lots of years he lost millions.

Is there any year he pocketed $20 million or whatever is too much for us to accept ?

We talk on here like it's our money to spend, but if it really was I doubt we would be spending any differently in this market & watching every penny, you know if there was such a thing as pennies still. Must be a pain in the ass when you here so many people talking about how you need to spend more of your hard earned money. He spends the money & stays out of the GM job, but his GM goes & signs a few players who were all done & the money is wasted, that has to be frustrating.

Then again if you own a sports franchise you have to expect that when you are losing some people are going to blame you for one thing or the other. It's impossible to please everyone although this guy hasn't done himself any favours & seems to keep on pissing the people off in this town who could actually help him in some cases. I'm not trying to make excuses for the guy, I think he's a dickhead too, but what if it were my money, what would I do? How much would I want to spend at this time when the team isn't even competing for a playoff spot yet?

 

[Wallet Inspector]

With regards to the budget, I'm not super bummed if we can't sign big UFAs as I honestly believe we have the pieces to be a contender within the team(especially after drafting 10OA this year.)

My big concern is whether we can resign all our key pieces while also maintaining good depth. Like are we going to have to trade away guys like Formenton and JBD while they're still on their RFA contracts thanks to the budget?

 

[aragorn]

With regards to the budget, I'm not super bummed if we can't sign big UFAs as I honestly believe we have the pieces to be a contender within the team(especially after drafting 10OA this year.)

My big concern is whether we can resign all our key pieces while also maintaining good depth. Like are we going to have to trade away guys like Formenton and JBD while they're still on their RFA contracts thanks to the budget?

The question might be whether it's because of the internal budget or that we have too many players wanting more money around the same time. The cap could prevent us from signing all of them or more likely who should we spend money on & who should we not. Maybe we get there & maybe we won't, but who would have thought a few yrs ago the cap would go over $80 mil & whether this market could afford to stay in the NHL with salaries being so high. What do we do when the cap is over $100 mil, how long before it's too expensive to have a team here?

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The question might be whether it's because of the internal budget or that we have too many players wanting more money around the same time. The cap could prevent us from signing all of them or more likely who should we spend money on & who should we not. Maybe we get there & maybe we won't, but who would have thought a few yrs ago the cap would go over $80 mil & whether this market could afford to stay in the NHL with salaries being so high. What do we do when the cap is over $100 mil, how long before it's too expensive to have a team here?

I suppose the optimistic view is that Melnyk finally sells once the cap(and thus the cap floor) gets too high, but that man is stubborn as a mule, so who knows what he'll do?