News Article: Dobber: Top 200 Free Agents & Salary/Cap Projections

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Capped: Top-200 free agent salary projections

Excerpt:

****
My overall thoughts on the projections:
Most importantly, these projections aren't perfect – keep that in mind. These projections try to take all of the player biases out of the equation, and it's all based off of numbers. As a result, if you don't agree with something, then it could mean you have some existing biases that are showing through (or that there is something I haven't considered in my work – so please let me know). On the flip side, this also means that a lot of the NHL GM biases can't be taken into account, and what we end up with is partially a projection of a player's value instead of exactly what they will sign for. This means that it can be a useful tool to ballpark a player's value before they sign and to give an approximation on their potential cost. It can then also be used after a contract is signed to compare their value to the contract versus the expectation, easily signaling whether the initial reaction to the contract should be positive or negative.
The list that I put out in February had a few major bugs that were fixed for the July edition. Since then, there have been some further tweaks to accommodate for the flat cap numbers among other minor tweaks. I am very happy with the results now, but as a writer and publisher of numbers I love to hear criticism and comments as they point out the areas for improvement. You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean for any of these comments.
From CapFriendly, there are currently 203 slots open on NHL rosters for next year, with a total of $420 million in cap space. The total of the top 200 free agents I have projected is about $440 million – add in the goalies and it is $490 million for the top 220 free agents. Taking into account the cap space available around the league increasing due to some buyouts, retirements, players getting buried in the minors, and teams not running with the fully available 23 roster slots, and the cap numbers start to add up. The cap crunch for free agents is going to be noticeable on 50th to 25th percentile players (third liners and fourth/fifth defencemen), who might have gotten a salary of a couple million, but now will be forced to take half or even a third of that. That's where I expect my numbers to be off the most – and it will be directly correlated to how many teams don't spend to the salary cap next year.

****

Rank	Name	Age	Pos	Projected Cap Hit
1	Taylor Hall	28	F	$9,215,498
2	Alex Pietrangelo	30	D	$8,647,661
3	Mathew Barzal	23	F	$8,119,226
4	Torey Krug	29	D	$7,908,774
5	Mike Hoffman	30	F	$7,140,559
6	Tyson Barrie	29	D	$7,024,068
7	Sam Reinhart	24	F	$6,771,467
8	Ryan Pulock	25	D	$6,719,811
9	Pierre-Luc Dubois	22	F	$6,709,205
10	Max Domi	25	F	$6,228,280
11	Tyler Toffoli	28	F	$5,858,878
12	Anthony Cirelli	23	F	$5,805,380
13	Anthony DeAngelo	24	D	$5,729,143
14	Evgenii Dadonov	31	F	$5,687,668
15	Anthony Mantha	26	F	$5,647,726
16	Andre Burakovsky	25	F	$5,474,486
17	Devon Toews	26	D	$4,903,906
18	Ryan Graves	25	D	$4,878,873
19	Ryan Strome	27	F	$4,775,928
20	Dylan Strome	23	F	$4,736,037
21	Kevin Labanc	24	F	$4,466,463
22	Jake DeBrusk	23	F	$4,363,252
23	Mikhail Sergachev	22	D	$4,164,167
24	Roope Hintz	23	F	$4,149,461
25	Matt Grzelcyk	26	D	$4,079,016
26	Mikael Granlund	28	F	$4,055,741
27	Tyler Bertuzzi	25	F	$4,053,558
28	Luke Kunin	22	F	$4,008,308
29	Dominik Kubalík	25	F	$3,996,015
30	Jesper Bratt	22	F	$3,943,560
31	Jordan Greenway	23	F	$3,860,816
32	Dominik Kahun	25	F	$3,636,743
33	Valeri Nichushkin	25	F	$3,597,986
34	Erik Gustafsson	28	D	$3,551,772
35	Vladislav Gavrikov	24	D	$3,513,276
36	Craig Smith	31	F	$3,501,009
37	Brandon Montour	26	D	$3,455,243
38	Connor Brown	26	F	$3,440,386
39	Jesper Fast	28	F	$3,417,353
40	Ilya Mikheyev	25	F	$3,415,183
41	Victor Olofsson	25	F	$3,397,585
42	T.J. Brodie	30	D	$3,357,553
43	Sami Vatanen	29	D	$3,347,992
44	Chris Tanev	30	D	$3,259,146
45	Andreas Athanasiou	26	F	$3,180,210
46	Troy Stecher	26	D	$3,170,985
47	Carl Soderberg	34	F	$3,072,167
48	Anthony Duclair	25	F	$3,038,763
49	Chandler Stephenson	26	F	$3,014,938
50	Kevin Shattenkirk	31	D	$2,989,705
51	Chris Tierney	26	F	$2,948,791
52	Philippe Myers	23	D	$2,946,927
53	Nikita Zadorov	25	D	$2,848,209
54	Mattias Janmark	27	F	$2,808,234
55	Vince Dunn	23	D	$2,796,791
56	Radek Faksa	26	F	$2,772,765
57	Jake Virtanen	24	F	$2,746,979
58	Ethan Bear	23	D	$2,746,158
59	Erik Cernak	22	D	$2,735,768
60	Justin Schultz	30	D	$2,729,516
61	Andrew Mangiapane	24	F	$2,717,929
62	Travis Dermott	23	D	$2,611,717
63	Tyler Ennis	30	F	$2,602,720
64	Jack Roslovic	23	F	$2,564,543
65	Matthew Nieto	27	F	$2,542,848
66	Haydn Fleury	24	D	$2,542,664
67	Adam Gaudette	23	F	$2,536,777
68	Denis Gurianov	23	F	$2,535,322
69	Radko Gudas	30	D	$2,407,297
70	Victor Mete	22	D	$2,393,796
71	Justin Braun	33	D	$2,329,518
72	Vladislav Namestnikov	27	F	$2,296,118
73	Cody Ceci	26	D	$2,294,940
74	Warren Foegele	24	F	$2,268,351
75	Erik Haula	29	F	$2,236,746
76	Christian Fischer	23	F	$2,129,227
77	Dylan DeMelo	27	D	$2,117,277
78	Tyson Jost	22	F	$2,080,440
79	Lucas Wallmark	25	F	$2,053,969
80	Vinnie Hinostroza	26	F	$1,981,709
81	Nick Cousins	27	F	$1,958,760
82	Michael Del Zotto	30	D	$1,950,060
83	Mark Jankowski	26	F	$1,949,232
84	Jimmy Vesey	27	F	$1,866,745
85	Nick Holden	33	D	$1,859,530
86	Carson Soucy	26	D	$1,846,716
87	Alex Galchenyuk	26	F	$1,834,333
88	Derick Brassard	32	F	$1,827,824
89	Cody Eakin	29	F	$1,818,161
90	Dominik Simon	26	F	$1,811,615
91	Johan Larsson	28	F	$1,755,810
92	Travis Hamonic	30	D	$1,747,364
93	Conor Sheary	28	F	$1,700,331
94	Sam Lafferty	25	F	$1,670,501
95	Madison Bowey	25	D	$1,663,873
96	Drake Caggiula	26	F	$1,650,444
97	MacKenzie Weegar	26	D	$1,621,245
98	Mark Pysyk	28	D	$1,613,563
99	Josh Anderson	26	F	$1,583,734
100	Casey Mittelstadt	21	F	$1,525,969
101	Nathan Beaulieu	27	D	$1,524,144
102	Wayne Simmonds	32	F	$1,518,746
103	Oliver Kylington	23	D	$1,505,117
104	Ilya Kovalchuk	37	F	$1,502,413
105	Corey Perry	35	F	$1,467,650
106	Brendan Lemieux	24	F	$1,461,438
107	Derek Grant	30	F	$1,455,077
108	Zemgus Girgensons	26	F	$1,422,268
109	Andy Greene	37	D	$1,404,011
110	Zdeno Chara	43	D	$1,403,507
111	Joe Thornton	41	F	$1,396,861
112	Tyler Pitlick	28	F	$1,338,778
113	Dmytro Timashov	23	F	$1,330,831
114	Sami Niku	23	F	$1,320,332
115	Brenden Dillon	29	D	$1,314,027
116	Kyle Clifford	29	F	$1,307,490
117	Mikko Koivu	37	F	$1,297,486
118	Trevor van Riemsdyk	29	D	$1,279,879
119	Melker Karlsson	30	F	$1,267,300
120	Mark Borowiecki	31	D	$1,266,901
121	Michael Frolik	32	F	$1,261,126
122	Filip Chlapik	23	F	$1,237,167
123	Mirco Mueller	25	D	$1,231,871
124	Tomas Nosek	28	F	$1,206,826
125	Carter Verhaeghe	25	F	$1,200,508
126	Dmitry Kulikov	29	D	$1,193,415
127	Pat Maroon	32	F	$1,130,007
128	Sam Gagner	31	F	$1,129,999
129	Taro Hirose	24	F	$1,101,027
130	Tim Heed	29	D	$1,097,238
131	Jayce Hawryluk	24	F	$1,093,412
132	Riley Sheahan	28	F	$1,092,284
133	Robert Hagg	25	D	$1,059,794
134	Mason Appleton	24	F	$1,011,147
135	Travis Boyd	27	F	$1,009,424
136	Trevor Lewis	33	F	$1,005,066
137	Derek Forbort	28	D	$967,502
138	Josh Leivo	27	F	$956,076
139	Luca Sbisa	30	D	$951,314
140	Matt Martin	31	F	$942,064
141	Adam Erne	25	F	$934,233
142	Anthony Bitetto	30	D	$927,541
143	Josh Brown	26	D	$911,474
144	Jason Spezza	37	F	$910,292
145	Nate Thompson	35	F	$907,000
146	Carl Grundstrom	22	F	$862,422
147	Rudolfs Balcers	23	F	$849,367
148	Kevin Rooney	27	F	$846,383
149	Ron Hainsey	39	D	$838,616
150	Austin Czarnik	27	F	$812,343
151	Austin Wagner	23	F	$810,880
152	Brendan Guhle	23	F	$804,865
153	Oscar Fantenberg	28	D	$801,574
154	Brendan Perlini	24	F	$788,287
155	Karson Kuhlman	24	F	$771,084
156	Lawrence Pilut	24	D	$766,042
157	Brian Boyle	35	F	$764,631
158	Mathieu Joseph	23	F	$759,589
159	Colin Wilson	30	F	$756,265
160	Brad Richardson	35	F	$752,768
161	Trevor Daley	36	D	$752,319
162	Patrick Marleau	41	F	$752,298
163	Nolan Patrick	22	F	$750,223
164	Zach Bogosian	30	D	$750,001
165	Brett Ritchie	27	F	$749,543
166	Slater Koekkoek	26	D	$737,180
167	Devin Shore	26	F	$736,758
168	Curtis Lazar	25	F	$736,451
169	Henrik Borgstrom	23	F	$727,287
170	Tage Thompson	22	F	$719,897
171	Frederik Gauthier	25	F	$718,523
172	Stefan Noesen	27	F	$713,969
173	Nick Merkley	23	F	$705,783
174	Kevin Stenlund	23	F	$700,000
175	Denis Malgin	23	F	$700,000
176	Matt Luff	23	F	$700,000
177	Joshua Ho-Sang	24	F	$700,000
178	Tyler Motte	25	F	$700,000
179	Louie Belpedio	24	D	$700,000
180	Oliwer Kaski	25	D	$700,000
181	Zach Senyshyn	23	F	$700,000
182	Kyle Capobianco	23	F	$700,000
183	Max Veronneau	24	F	$700,000
184	Nico Sturm	25	F	$700,000
185	Peter Cehlarik	25	F	$700,000
186	Kevin Roy	27	F	$700,000
187	Sebastian Aho (d)	24	F	$700,000
188	Derrick Pouliot	26	D	$700,000
189	Aleksi Saarela	23	F	$700,000
190	Sheldon Dries	26	F	$700,000
191	Nikolay Goldobin	24	F	$700,000
192	Sheldon Rempal	25	F	$700,000
193	Deryk Engelland	38	D	$700,000
194	Andrej Sekera	34	D	$700,000
195	John Hayden	25	F	$700,000
196	Jimmy Schuldt	25	D	$700,000
197	Joel L’Esperance	25	F	$700,000
198	Valentin Zykov	25	F	$700,000
199	Tom Kuhnhackl	28	F	$700,000
200	Ryan Kuffner	24	F	$700,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Click to read more...

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Excerpt #2

Some quick hits regarding the list:
-The Islanders and Lightning are in real trouble with the projected cap hits of their key RFAs. Anthony Cirelli just keeps padding his wallet with clutch goals too.

-Who is going to need an offensive defenceman badly enough to pay Tyson Barrie $7 million or Torey Krug $8 million?

–Max Domi deserves $6 million, but it doesn't sound as though he is going to get it in Montreal. After the Canadiens tried to sign away Sebastian Aho via an offersheet last year, does someone (Minnesota?) try to get Domi for a first and a third-round pick? Montreal may have to let him go for that.

-Andrew Mangiapane is going to be a bargain if he gets his projected $2.7 million.
-Which sub-$3 million defenceman would you rather have? Kevin Shattenkirk, Phil Myers, Travis Dermott, Nikita Zadorov, or Vince Dunn?

–Josh Anderson's past few seasons have really killed his projected value. He may need a short-term deal for a season where he stays healthy before he can really cash in. He might be a good buy-low in bangers leagues.

-The minimum salary for next year as per the new CBA is $700,000, going up to $750,000 for the 2021-2022 season. Anyone not showing is also projected to earn the league minimum of $700,000, though most rookies will probably be closer to $900,000.

-If any players are bought out then I'll post their projected new salaries on Twitter. For example, if Kyle Turris gets bought out by the Predators, then his projected salary for next season would be $3.2 million.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

15

Anthony Mantha

26

F

$5,647,726

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

that's right b/w the $5.25-5.75 I projected earlier this season.

27

Tyler Bertuzzi

25

F

$4,053,558

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I hope we get Bert that cheap, but I think it'll be closer to $4.5-$4.9m

113

Dmytro Timashov

23

F

$1,330,831

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

wanna see what the kid can do, replaces Erne.

42

T.J. Brodie

30

D

$3,357,553

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

that'd be a F*ng Steal, sign me up for 3-4 yrs @ that price...one of the best backhand passers in transition in the NHL.


Erne @$934k, I think he'll be let go 70/30%.

Krug @$7.9M+ Lol @ the GM who pays him that for 5-7yrs.

40

Ilya Mikheyev

25

F

$3,415,183

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

this is the guy we gotta steal from Toronto, one day, perfect 3rd liner w/Ras+Berggren.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Trade Bait: The NHL's 31 teams fit neatly into three buckets this off-season - TSN.ca

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I feel sorry for the team that'd give Barrie $7M.

 

[Go Wings]

There is no way in hell that Brodie and Tanev get signed a UFAs for 3.3 million each. Just awful.

 

[Oddbob]

If Barrie gets more than 5.5 than yikes to whoever does it!

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

There is no way in hell that Brodie and Tanev get signed a UFAs for 3.3 million each. Just awful.

Tanev probably gets close to 5 x $5,000,000 and i'd imagine Brodie similar.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

My first reaction is that the projections are systematically low. It should be expected to have some above and some below what one would expect, but it seems like their may be some bias in the model. As well, without having an attached contract length the given AAVs are kind of meaningless. I appreciate the effort, but I think it could've used some refinement.

There are two other projections available that I'm aware of, Evoling-Hockey's and a joint effort from Sam Forester and Puckpedia. I like Evolving Hockey's the most as they provide a multitude of options and give a nice idea of the range a contact may be in. As well, their model had an R^2 of at least .7 and I think it may have been upwards of .9 in terms of accuracy for AAV. Their model projects this for the Wings RFAs:

Mantha - Most likely 4 years x 6.3M AAV, 21% chance; 8 year x 7.58M, 4% chance
Bertuzzi - Most likely 4 years x 4.99M AAV, 29% chance; 8 years x 6.72M, 9% chance

Mantha's contract years are pretty evenly split distributed between 3-6 years and Bertuzzi is thought to be likely to sign for either 4 or 6 seasons. EH did update their projections to account for the new FA period and it seems most have been depressed from their original July 1st projections.

The other model projects:

Mantha - Most likely 5 years x 6.25M AAV
Bertuzzi - They don't have a projection for him (my assumption would be in the 4.2-4.8M range) for 4 or 5 years

 

[Go Wings]

Tanev probably gets close to 5 x $5,000,000 and i'd imagine Brodie similar.

Yah I would agree with that range.

 

[Frk It]

Krug/Brodie should be a priority for us. Need to bump Dekeyser/Nemeth/Cholowski down the depth chart. I’ve always liked Brodie, so if his price is more palatable than Krug, I’m ok with that.

I wouldn’t mind targeting Dadonov on a ~3 year deal or so. Would be a good line mate for our youngsters, and should be able to flip him at a trade deadline for assets if we want.

 

[Mister Ed]

Kyle Turris might be bought out

Turris and Mantha had insane chemistry at the 2018 World Championships, could he be of interest? 2-3 years as the #3 C / 2nd PP ?

 

[Winger98]

Kyle Turris might be bought out

Turris and Mantha had insane chemistry at the 2018 World Championships, could he be of interest? 2-3 years as the #3 C / 2nd PP ?

Turris' big appeal for me was what we might have been able to pull from Nashville as a sweetener.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Kyle Turris might be bought out

Turris and Mantha had insane chemistry at the 2018 World Championships, could he be of interest? 2-3 years as the #3 C / 2nd PP ?

Man 8 years of dead money in a flat cap world, Don't really know what David Poile would be thinking of if he makes that move.

 

[wingfan]

Turris' big appeal for me was what we might have been able to pull from Nashville as a sweetener.

Yeah.. But if he does get bought out and we can get him on a short term deal he's clearly a better option at 2C than Neilsen/Filppula..

 

[golffuul]

Man 8 years of dead money in a flat cap world, Don't really know what David Poile would be thinking of if he makes that move.

Same thing he thought about Shea Weber's and PK Subban's contracts?

(Meaning that he really hasn't been thinking very well the last several years)

 

[Bench]

Same thing he thought about Shea Weber's and PK Subban's contracts?

(Meaning that he really hasn't been thinking very well the last several years)

Shea Weber forced an offer sheet before they closed the loophole on long-term deals like the ones Franzen and Zetterberg signed. The Flyers gave Weber that poison pill front loaded contract, hoping to push him out of a cash strapped Nashville.

A reminder Weber took a tour of Detroit that off-season, so the Wings seemed poised to offer a similar deal.

Then Poile flipped Weber for Subban. Subban already had his deal in place from the Canadians.

Then Poile pulled the ripcord on Subban before he completely crashed, and was able to trade him for two early second round picks.

All told, Poile got prime years from Weber and Subban and shed both before their contracts became problematic. The only downside is it's unclear how the league will handle cap recapture if Weber retires, but I feel like the odds of them following through with that punishment are virtually zero given every other team, including the Wings, have avoided any serious repercussions.

What I'm trying to say is... He's actually done pretty damn great given the difficult hand he was dealt with Weber.

 

[Ricelund]

The only downside is it's unclear how the league will handle cap recapture if Weber retires, but I feel like the odds of them following through with that punishment are virtually zero given every other team, including the Wings, have avoided any serious repercussions.

Agreed. I can't see the NHL actually following through with the recapture penalties.

 

[Winger98]

Yeah.. But if he does get bought out and we can get him on a short term deal he's clearly a better option at 2C than Neilsen/Filppula..

Full disclosure, I'm not a Turris fan at all. He'd be an upgrade on Neilsen/Flip, but I'd like to either pay for a guy I like more (not that there is a great selection this summer) or use the space for more cap dumps from other teams. If he's cheap enough, I'd live with it but...ugh. Just don't like him as a player.

 

[Henkka]

Kyle Turris might be bought out

Turris and Mantha had insane chemistry at the 2018 World Championships, could he be of interest? 2-3 years as the #3 C / 2nd PP ?

Turris with 1M + short deal would be nice.

Worth to try.

 

[deca guard]

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

From Dobber: Ramblings – Goalies: who’s going where, top RFA signing sheet candidates, and more of your questions (Oct 01)

"Any ideas how upcoming Free Agency might play out in terms of goalie spots? Will we see any additional goalie trades?
— pahlsson26 (@Pahlsson26) September 30, 2020"​

"This is the biggest story. I have never seen this kind of market for starting goalies. Holtby, Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Thomas Greiss and Cam Talbot are each legitimate options. Markstrom, to me, is the top guy followed closely by Lehner. As far as the best deal – I like Talbot. I think a team will get him cheap and I think he'll give that team two surprisingly good years. And besides those five options, there is Crawford, Mike Smith and Lundqvist, and a couple of teams may feel either could be a starter for them. And then besides those seven options, there is the rumored trades of Fleury, Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen and Petr Mrazek! That makes 12 different goalies who could be a starter or a 1A/1B split starter on a new team!"

"I think we'll end up with seven to nine teams with a new starting goalie for next year. To speculate on which goalie goes where would be throwing darts. Detroit needs a stopgap if they draft Askarov, and they need a long-term signing if they do. They are the best fit for Markstrom or Lehner. Buffalo is the other best fit for one of those two. Vegas reportedly has Lehner signed, though. "

"Here's my darts:
Detroit – Markstrom
Vegas – Lehner
Buffalo – Holtby
Colorado – Fleury
Edmonton – Greiss
Calgary – Bishop
Ottawa – Talbot"

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Yzerman speaks with the media ahead of the Draft and Free Agency period.

This was worth the 41 minutes. When asked about muting his mic & blacking out his screen during the Cole Perfetti interview, he said jokingly "I was doing yoga" & "I have an older dog that barks for no reason"

 

[Bench]

"This is the biggest story. I have never seen this kind of market for starting goalies. Holtby, Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Thomas Greiss and Cam Talbot are each legitimate options.

Detroit needs a stopgap

They are the best fit for Markstrom

if they draft Askarov

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I wouldn't be shocked if he picked Askarov, but I'm not expecting him to either.

Interesting though that he mentioned leaving the (AHL bound) kids in their respective Euro leagues for an entire season if need be...still no word on Veleno, very strange. I can't imagine they think he's ready for NHL 3rd line minutes either...not sure what to make of that.