Speculation: Do we make the playoffs?

[IcedCapp]

Nope. Entering these last three games, I said they needed 5 of 6 points to really cement themselves as a playoff-caliber team.

While failing to come close to that doesn’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things, this team has repeatedly shown they’re incapable of consistently finding wins against teams that are even close to “good.”

They can get leads against anyone. But they can’t hold them and I don’t trust them to blind-squirrel-finding-a-nut enough points to make it.

The game against buffalo was the night the music died for me. They will continue to play hockey, but they’re not competing for anything. The farewell tour has started and the buses and vans are already packed

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The good news for people who want them to eek into the playoffs is that a whole lotta teams in the bottom half of the East are also aggressively mediocre.

 

[Big Poppa Pump]

I'll say no.

Being on the outside at Thanksgiving, teams only have like a 10-20% chance of making the playoffs.

Although, the Pens are only 2 points out of a spot right now and if they had a competent PP, they'd be second in the Metro, behind the Rangers.

Who can figure this team out? Who had them beating the likes of Vegas, Colorado, Washington, Los Angeles and Toronto?

 

[Headshot77]

The Standard is the Standard

 

[Genetic]

If we fix the powerplay? Yes

If we don't fix the powerplay? No

 

[Peat]

My major concern is that we look like hot garbage in conference.

That one is a killer. Fixing that and taking points off of the teams in front of us could rapidly change this thread. I watched the NYR game and thought they were a bit unlucky; I watched the NJD game and boys, you can't do that.

I'll say no.

Being on the outside at Thanksgiving, teams only have like a 10-20% chance of making the playoffs.

Although, the Pens are only 2 points out of a spot right now and if they had a competent PP, they'd be second in the Metro, behind the Rangers.

Who can figure this team out? Who had them beating the likes of Vegas, Colorado, Washington, Los Angeles and Toronto?

This is the frustrating thing. The best version of this team isn't just good, it's very good. That Colorado effort was a masterclass. I don't think many people here would be *that* surprised if the team ripped off 10 straight at some point and got right back in it.

But the fixes to the consistency needed for that...

 

[HandshakeLine]

Exactly @Peat, which is why it’s more of a question than sentiment here indicates. I’m on the cynical side, I don’t think team ownership will make the tough calls needed to fix this team, but you’re absolutely right this team has potential and is fixable.

 

[Peat]

Exactly @Peat, which is why it’s more of a question than sentiment here indicates. I’m on the cynical side, I don’t think team ownership will make the tough calls needed to fix this team, but you’re absolutely right this team has potential and is fixable.

That reads like you looking at coaching. Might be the answer.

Me, I look at the locker room and the talent available and want another couple of puzzle pieces to make it easier. Nobody in the bottom six belongs in the top six (although I think DOC looked better than vs Toronto than he did vs NJ). Zohorna started strong as a spark plug there but has fizzled a little. The bottom pairing hasn't been a strong note, although maybe Ludvig can stick and fix things.

I think any coach is going to find it tough sledding with that. There's not a lot of space for error. I don't think that collection of talent should be regularly expecting to get more than 6-4-0 from this team's last 10 games as they did, and if they were frustratingly close to doing better than that in some games they also got bailed out in others.

Someone needs to step up. Or someone needs to be brought in. But there's no assets and no cap space to bring anyone in, barring Carter LTIRing or another team wanting Rakell's 3 points in 16 games. And they brought up WBS' two best scorers in Nylander and Harkins in response to recent injuries and I don't think anyone is impressed.

Which is why I trailed off. Is it possible to make the fixes? Sure. Do I see how? Not really, other than get lucky.

And even the PP... yeah, I'd be real happy if they relieved Reirden of his duties there, but they had a slightly above median PP last year with him last year. Maybe a new coach is the magic bullet there, but maybe there isn't one other than Karlsson/Crosby/Malkin getting on the same page, or them sticking in a real net front forward like *stares at the roster forlornly*...

Ultimately, the fix is the team commits to defending like they did vs Colorado a hell of a lot more often and chasing the puck like they did vs New Jersey a hell of a lot less - which might go easier with a new coach but could very easily not; finding PP chemistry; and somehow getting 2/3 players on minimum wage to be real players when they have zero depth, which is maybe on coaching but there are looks being given to multiple guys.

And I don't feel comfortable predicting where the core are in regards to the first two, and I don't feel comfortable expecting the third.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, I'm just puzzled how anyone can NOT think of coaching as a key part of the struggles. I've been pretty consistent on that. I do think the roster could still use some work, but it was assembled pretty much with this coach and system in mind, so if it's missing puzzle pieces, it's due to The System, IMO.

Also which coward mod changed this from the "rumor" tag to "speculation". Show yourself!

 

[AuroraBorealis]

One thing that's improved thus far from last year is that we're playing the playoff teams better. We were even close in a few we lost. Just eyeballing the schedule without checking the standings, I think we're 6-6-0 against teams currently in a playoff spot.

So if you can finish the season .500 at that, your record against golfing teams should, theoretically, get you over the line.
But that's not happening right now, and that's the biggest problem.

 

[Richard]

This team is playing a style that is no longer suitable to play. Sullivan needs to be fired and a third-line center brought in.

IF these things occur we can easily contend.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

I'd agree the goaltending is inconsistent, but the team has a top 5 save percentage with all three guys saving more than expected, and routinely gives up odd man rushes like they're going out of fashion. Statistically, this team is bottom nine for xGA/60.

In other words, I think they get far more consistent goaltending than defence.

IIRC, the Jfresh charts from the other day said they're like 3rd or 4th in goals saved above expected and like 28th in expected goals against. It's not the goalies.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

I'm not seeing it. They don't seem to have the gas tank (whether physically or mentally) to see things through to the end.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I just don't see a way that a coaching change meaningfully backfires. This team's dead in the water. They haven't been to the 2nd round since 2018, they're on a steady decline since, they're staring down consecutive seasons where they miss the playoffs. They're probably not gonna win a round again in the Sid/Geno era.

What, exactly, is the downside here? A coaching change is the easiest and simplest form of shakeup a team can make. Even if they end up with a Mike Johnston, who gives a shit? This team's circling the drain. What's the difference between barely making the playoffs with *zero* shot at legitimately competing for a Cup, versus missing by a relatively wide margin? They're still cooked either way, but at least making changes to the coaching staff, they can say they tried everything. /shrug

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

This team is playing a style that is no longer suitable to play. Sullivan needs to be fired and a third-line center brought in.

IF these things occur we can easily contend.

Eller is not an issue. I am not the only one that has been pleasantly surprised that not only is he not cooked but that his all around play has been excellent.

Here’s a paywalled article about how they have changed from their not suitable style of play.

How Mike Sullivan's one big change made the Penguins tougher

A lot of coaches would go down with the system. Mike Sullivan has adjusted and is seeing the results with the Penguins.

theathletic.com

 

[Ulf5]

I just don't see a way that a coaching change meaningfully backfires. This team's dead in the water. They haven't been to the 2nd round since 2018, they're on a steady decline since, they're staring down consecutive seasons where they miss the playoffs. They're probably not gonna win a round again in the Sid/Geno era.

What, exactly, is the downside here? A coaching change is the easiest and simplest form of shakeup a team can make. Even if they end up with a Mike Johnston, who gives a shit? This team's circling the drain. What's the difference between barely making the playoffs with *zero* shot at legitimately competing for a Cup, versus missing by a relatively wide margin? They're still cooked either way, but at least making changes to the coaching staff, they can say they tried everything. /shrug

Is it possible management knows this team is going nowhere no matter what they do short of bringing in McDavid, Saros and Makar?
Sullivan has had success in the past with lesser lineups. He might just be the most qualified coach for the rebuild. Maybe they're just keeping him around for when they tear it all down. Since they're most likely not winning jack shit with or without him?

 

[Richard]

Eller is not an issue. I am not the only one that has been pleasantly surprised that not only is he not cooked but that his all around play has been excellent.

Here’s a paywalled article about how they have changed from their not suitable style of play.

How Mike Sullivan's one big change made the Penguins tougher

A lot of coaches would go down with the system. Mike Sullivan has adjusted and is seeing the results with the Penguins.

theathletic.com

That is fine, well, and good but the penguins are putting far too much pressure on their centers in particular and their forwards in general with their defensive transitioning. Allowing Letang and Co. to aggressively pinch is making our forwards age, ahem, move faster than is necessary.

Pinching off the boards is fine and good but our situational hockey IE has been bad for at least two years maybe even dating back to 19.

We need to play strong defensive hockey in the neutral zone and the other team's offensive zone. How many of our goals against have been due to a bad turnover high in the other teams dzone or a mistimed pinch by one of our dmen?

Quite simply we cannot play high tempo 200 foot hockey anymore. It is foolish to try.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Is it possible management knows this team is going nowhere no matter what they do short of bringing in McDavid, Saros and Makar?
Sullivan has had success in the past with lesser lineups. He might just be the most qualified coach for the rebuild. Maybe they're just keeping him around for when they tear it all down. Since they're most likely winning jack shit with or without him?

They're keeping him around because A. they owe him a ton of money, B. they think he's a genuinely top echelon coach despite going on six years of worsening failures, and C. they don't want to rock the boat and potentially anger a fanbase (lose revenue) right before what's probably gonna be like a decade of real lean years.

Also, maybe I'm off here, but I really do not want Mike Sullivan in charge of molding the game/development of the next crop of top-5 picks this team's gonna be drafting in the very near future.

 

[LOGiK]

Nope. Entering these last three games, I said they needed 5 of 6 points to really cement themselves as a playoff-caliber team.

While failing to come close to that doesn’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things, this team has repeatedly shown they’re incapable of consistently finding wins against teams that are even close to “good.”

They can get leads against anyone. But they can’t hold them and I don’t trust them to blind-squirrel-finding-a-nut enough points to make it.

The game against buffalo was the night the music died for me. They will continue to play hockey, but they’re not competing for anything. The farewell tour has started and the buses and vans are already packed

So after years of decline and witnessing insufferable defeats year after year - even 3-1 up in a playoff round to crumble and lose 3 straight to keep up the masquerade at this club - _now_ you realize the jokes on you, after a loss to.... Buffalo?
How so....?

 

[LOGiK]

One thing that's improved thus far from last year is that we're playing the playoff teams better. We were even close in a few we lost. Just eyeballing the schedule without checking the standings, I think we're 6-6-0 against teams currently in a playoff spot.

So if you can finish the season .500 at that, your record against golfing teams should, theoretically, get you over the line.
But that's not happening right now, and that's the biggest problem.

Yea. That is the big one in pro sports... you have big teams and you have scrub teams (scrub having various meanings depending on the sport) but that is what sets most teams apart, their ability to handle the lesser teams handedly and at least compete 50/50 against the imposing top squads.
It won't get you deep into a playoff run (need a Florida style hot streak) but it'll get you into the big stage at least.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Team is insanely frustrating. I believe they have the ability to be good. I think last year repeats itself though.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

The team isn't actually in a bad place from a possibilities perspective. The roster is definitely better than last year.

I remember NJ running circles around us last year, and though we still have trouble with them, we are significantly more competitive.

We still have our 3rd period breakdowns, but it's less frequent than last year.

Is that all enough to make the playoffs? So far it doesn't look like it, but the potential is there. I mean, if I PP was even average, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

It's impossible to predict where this will all go. Remember the year the Blues won the cup, they picked up in the latter 1/2 of the season.

I do believe that this is officially the last year for anything. However, seeing Joe Pavelski kill it at that age, does reduce some of my negativity. So confused.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Out of curiosity, I have been keeping up with the team's record this year versus last as they go. Through 20 games;

2022-23 - 10-7-3
2023-24 - 10-10-0

They had some pretty absurd streaks last year throughout the season. Winning seven in a row from games 24 through 30. Then immediately lost six in a row from games 33 through 38. A couple more streaks of wins and losses in the five game range throughout the year.

All in all, very similar. Not exactly a good thing when you take into account the huge upgrade from Petry to Karlsson, Zucker and Smith being a wash, and additions like Eller and Graves being solid upgrades over last year's Carter and Dumo.

 

[Pancakes]

One thing that has struck me with this team the past few years is how they're no longer a team that can assert its will on their opponents. I remember early on in Sullivan's tenure here where the Pens would just take it to the other team all game and really put their foot down their throats.

What's the last game this year or last where you guys felt like that watching them? Maybe San Jose I guess but that is an AHL team lol.

Even when this team wins now it usually has the feel of just smart grindy hockey. It's not that the other team can't handle us in our wins. It's just that we played smart and got just enough offense and goaltending.

It's tough being that kind of team because to make the playoffs winning that way you have to have the consistency to play that style more often than not. This team cannot fall back on talent to win games. It has to play the right way or it will lose. Previous iterations of the Pens could play sloppy and still win because of talent or the PP.

I just don't know if this team has it in them to put together enough smart performances to make the playoffs. This core still has their games where they want to fall back on talent instead of brains but unfortunately the talent isn't good enough any more to pull wins out of their ass in those sloppy efforts.

 

[pistolpete11]

People can nitpick things all day and night, but the answer is simple. It's the PP.

They are 6th in GA. They are 16th in GF. They are 27th in PPG. If they had an even mediocre PP, they'd have 8 more goals which would put them T-6th in GF.

It's really that simple. Pick up a PPG here or there and it likely changes the outcome of at least a few games. Even a few OTL and they would be in playoff position.