News Article: Do the Penguins have a Puck Possession Problem? (Parts I and II) (will update OP)

[billybudd]

Great nbrs on the turnovers.....

I wonder, how much of Crosby/Malkins negative nbrs are due to them trying to do too much/carrying the puck too long, not trusting their wingers...?
Also as has been pointed out, opposition simply collapsing 2or even 3 guys on Sid and Geno, thereby forcing a lot of turnovers?

Getzlaf and Perry are minus 20 each and giveaways/takeaways are notoriously poorly (and inconsistently) tracked, much like hits (anybody see 200 hits from Craig Adams this season? I didn't. Glass probably, Adams no.). I wouldn't read too much into NHL "real-time" stats.

They've been garbage ever since Robert Svehla doubled Darius Kasparaitis in hits per game after the all-star break, which, incidentally, lead to the NHL retiring those types of statistics for half a decade.

 

[IcedCapp]

Getzlaf and Perry are minus 20 each and giveaways/takeaways are notoriously poorly (and inconsistently) tracked, much like hits (anybody see 200 hits from Craig Adams this season? I didn't. Glass probably, Adams no.). I wouldn't read too much into NHL "real-time" stats.

They've been garbage ever since Robert Svehla doubled Darius Kasparaitis in hits per game after the all-star break, which, incidentally, lead to the NHL retiring those types of statistics for half a decade.

also should be noted that someone like Toews (and let's assume his numbers are real and not a product of confirmation bias) will have different turnover numbers than someone like Crosby, who has the puck a majority of the time and is always looking to make a pass.

If Crosby would finish plays on his stick more often, his turnover numbers would be different.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Yes, and it stems from a huge personnel issue.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Getzlaf and Perry are minus 20 each and giveaways/takeaways are notoriously poorly (and inconsistently) tracked, much like hits (anybody see 200 hits from Craig Adams this season? I didn't. Glass probably, Adams no.). I wouldn't read too much into NHL "real-time" stats.

They've been garbage ever since Robert Svehla doubled Darius Kasparaitis in hits per game after the all-star break, which, incidentally, lead to the NHL retiring those types of statistics for half a decade.

I'm not concerned about Crosby, he's always around that -15 mark, even in our cup years. But the lack of takeaways throughout our lineup is something to look at and be concerned about. We really don't have forwards who are taking the puck away, and the disparity between a players usual numbers is what concerns me. For example, Malkin always had giveaways, but also caused a lot of turnovers. Not this year.

Whether you believe in the accuracy of stats like this is one thing, but they corroborate the eye test. And especially in the case of the 4th line, we're just not getting anything we need from them.

Having a Hossa or an ROR helps tremendously with possession, but you don't need stats like this to tell you that.

 

[KiuasWarrior]

I am going to take off my jaded hat for one second.

We have played in troubling ways all year. But have been especially bad since the Olympics.

To be fair we also had the Metro basically won by then too. So maybe some of the worst we saw was a product of not having anything much to play for in months now.

I keep telling myself this as well. I want to see them flip the switch starting tomorrow... which remains to be seen.

 

[eXile59]

You can blame the bottom six, rightfully so, but Orpik & Scuds are literally the opposite of puck possession as well.

 

[cygnus47]

Crosby and Malkin will never have positive turnover numbers because they have the puck on their sticks for 50% of every shift. They're the ones trying to make the plays, so they end up with the turnovers. Same thing happens in NHL14 haha.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Crosby best 3rd line shutdown C


But this just shows how much he has grown as a player. Maybe he scores less however he is more of a two way player. All we need is a winger for him

 

[billybudd]

I'm not concerned about Crosby, he's always around that -15 mark, even in our cup years. But the lack of takeaways throughout our lineup is something to look at and be concerned about. We really don't have forwards who are taking the puck away, and the disparity between a players usual numbers is what concerns me. For example, Malkin always had giveaways, but also caused a lot of turnovers. Not this year.

Whether you believe in the accuracy of stats like this is one thing, but they corroborate the eye test. And especially in the case of the 4th line, we're just not getting anything we need from them.

Having a Hossa or an ROR helps tremendously with possession, but you don't need stats like this to tell you that.

About Ryan O'Reilly: glancing at Colorado's real time stats as a team, the giveaway and takeaway stats seem to need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

As a team, their Corsi and Fenwick % are among the worst in the league, but their individual giveaway and takeaway stats would have you believe they've constantly got the puck.

My guess is, like the Islanders with hits and the Predators with shots, they've got a scorer at the home rink that massages the statistics. There's just no other way to square MacKinnon posting a 46 corsi % while doubling his giveaways with takeaways.

If players like him and O'Reilly are stripping everyone they're on the ice with and not giving it back, the rest of their metrics would look like Bergeron's. They both look more like Sutter's than Patrice's.

 

[FDBluth]

I wouldn't read too much into the turnover numbers. In addition to being terribly inconsistently tracked, they are very biased against playmakers like Sid and Malkin. If you attempt to a pass to a guy in a great scoring position and it doesn't quite connect, it's most likely a turnover. However, if you take a shot and the goaltender saves it, it's not a turnover, regardless of how poor a shot attempt it is or who gets the puck afterwards.

 

[SHOOTANDSCORE]

We have numerous reasons for our low possession this year, but turnovers and failure to create them is a significant contributing factor as well that doesn't get analyzed a lot. Our 4th line is clearly horrible:

Turnover +/-:

Typically good checking players create turnovers, and defenseman have negative +/-. Ours:

Adams: -1 (15 takeaways / 16 give aways)
Glass: +5 (10/5)
Vitale: +2 (10/8)

Sutter: +16 (29/13)

Boston:

Paille: +19 (32 take aways / 13 give aways)
Campbell: +16 (26 / 10)

So good teams really rely on their 4th lines to create turnovers and hold possession, whereas ours is terrible at this.

But what's even worse is that our top 6 is terrible in turnover ratio also:

Crosby: -15
Malkin: -21
Kunitz: -21
Jokinen: -25
Neal: +8

When a guy like Hossa is +49, Toews is +19, ROR is +50.

The whole team is a mess, and I can't help but think that's an indictment of the system/coaching in some cases, poor transitional play in others, and some players just being careless with the puck. And a roster built out of players that are just not good at causing turnovers and avoiding them.

There are a few things I've noticed that may have contributed to that.

At the beginning of the season it seemed like we were engaging the opposition high in the O zone and early in the N zone. Our forwards were creating turnovers there and counterattacking. Now it seems like we are content to engage in our D zone and counterattack 200 feet.

Also, our top 6 has been trying to force high risk plays for a while now. I'm sure it has boosted their giveaways. Drop passes, blind passes, etc. Maybe Sid and Geno trying to do too much, to cover for their linemates. Maybe the coaches don't want to say things like "hey Sid, no more blind drops at the blue line" or "hey guys, don't miss the net from this angle because it's a free breakout."

 

[Malkin4Top6Wingerz]

Have they hurt? The 3 players who missed the most time (Letang, Martin, Scuderi) are all (-) FF% Close Rel. players. Replacement players like Gibbons & Despres were (+). The numbers are low because never-scratch fixtures like Orpik, Glass, Pyatt & Adams were all heavy (-) players. Sutter is low as well, but he has mostly been playing with toxic waste all season.

Martin and Letang have a long track record of strong possession numbers, so their absence has been a signficant detriment to our overall Fenwick / Corsi numbers. Even still, this team hasn't been the same since Staal left. The bottom 6 is much more important than people realize and we're starting to see the effects of relying solely on your top 6 to win you games. Simply put, better teams will expose you.

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

Injuries haven't helped.

Good lord you can totally tell who you work for and with...

 

[IcedCapp]

Parto Doso

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-reasons-penguins-possession-problem/

 

[IcedCapp]

really good read, whatever your thoughts on the team are. I think Mike (as usual) hit it out of the park.

 

[WVP]

really good read, whatever your thoughts on the team are. I think Mike (as usual) hit it out of the park.

I also liked his summary from the FF roundtable:

http://www.faceoff-factor.com/1pittsburgh-penguins/4949/round-1-playoff-roundtable

Colligan: I’ve always viewed this season a transition year for the Pens. They went all-in at the deadline last season (as they should have) and came up short. This season, a lower cap put a crunch on their ability to fill out the checking lines. I think we’ll see some significant changes in the offseason and that’ll open the door for a more balanced lineup. If you buy into the transition year idea and acknowledge the injury situation, this season has been a huge success. Are the Penguins in the Top 5 of the NHL? Nope. Is the Eastern Conference wide open? Yep. With luck, matchups, and timing playing such a big role in the playoffs, the Penguins are definitely capable of making a run.

That's basically it. The Dupuis injury hurt our depth as well....

Dupuis - Sutter - Stempniak
Glass - Goc - Vitale/Adams/Gibbons/Megna

is not a bad bottom 6. We're just missing (at least) one more competent player that makes a positive impact on the game.

Anyway, playoffs come down to matchups, health and hot runs. If we get NYR and anyone but Boston - who knows what happens.

 

[NMK11]

Crosby best 3rd line shutdown C


But this just shows how much he has grown as a player. Maybe he scores less however he is more of a two way player. All we need is a winger for him

I'm actually fine with Crosby matching up with other teams top lines, as we've seen teams to do us, the best way to shut someone down is force them to play in their own end. If Crosby had another possession winger, they'd be an amazing "3rd line" while still scoring ala Toews' line. The big key here is that the scoring needs to come from somewhere because occasionally the two top lines are just going to cancel each other out. Malkin's line would then need the best matchups and the third line needs to be able to score.

We have the ability to use Crosby as a "defensive player by default because he always has the puck" because he have a second "first" line, but the third line needs to step up. This isn't preferable to me because I think we have the personnel to have a good shut down 3rd line, but it isn't a bad strategy overall.

 

[Crafton]

put up a 55.6% FenwickClose in the first game. that's a a great number but it's only one game. they'll need to keep doing more of that.