do smaller players have longer careers?

[soireeculturelle]

Curious as to if anyone else here has done size vs. longevity studies.

Montreal went to the conference finals with 50% of its defense corps older than 35 and under 6'0" (Markov, Bouillon and Weaver). Plugged all the dmen playing at least 500 minutes into a spreadsheet, and saw that the average height for dmen went from about 6'2" for 18-24 year olds, to just over 6'0" for 35 and over players. Chara is the only outlier, but otherwise taller/heavier dmen tend to leave the league at a high pace (or spent a lot of time on the IR) past the age of 30 or so.

Wished the height data was more reliable, though. Weaver is listed at 5'10" but much shorter in real life.

original link: http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=721759

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[NewLife]

Smaller players use to be older when they break into the league so when they are done and hang them up they might as well have less pro miles in the system even if they are older.

 

[Rekin]

Also bigger guys are more likely to have a more physical and consuming style of play, often forcing them to retire earlier.

 

[Primary Assist]

A lot of smaller players like St. Louis or Kessel had to learn how to avoid unnecessary contact when they were younger (although St. Louis is still a monster on the boards) and may have developed that "6th sense" to increase their longevity. They also aren't expected to throw their body around as much as the big guys, which probably helps them out as well.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

All good ideas thus far.

Smaller players also have shorter limbs (by definition), and I wonder if the ratio of length to width is shorter as well (not as obvious, but possible). The former would reduce exposure (there's just less to hit), and the latter would lead to greater resilience when hit.

There's likely also a selection bias - since there's a preference towards size in NHL drafting and scouting, you have to be a better player to "make it" as a smaller player. Hence, we see longer careers once they do make it (but we don't see all of the zero-length careers from those small players who don't make it).

 

[Namejs]

Are changes in the average height of all players taken into account?

35 year olds were 18-24 quite a while ago. How has the average height changed during the last 15 years?

 

[soireeculturelle]

There's likely also a selection bias - since there's a preference towards size in NHL drafting and scouting, you have to be a better player to "make it" as a smaller player. Hence, we see longer careers once they do make it (but we don't see all of the zero-length careers from those small players who don't make it).

That's absolutely true. Another way to look at the issue, is to examine whether it's a risk for teams to sign very tall (6'4"+) players to long-term contracts if there's a significantly higher chance that they wouldnt be able to deliver value. curious about how a guy like tyler myers is going to hold up.

 

[Patchey*]

That's absolutely true. Another way to look at the issue, is to examine whether it's a risk for teams to sign very tall (6'4"+) players to long-term contracts if there's a significantly higher chance that they wouldnt be able to deliver value. curious about how a guy like tyler myers is going to hold up.

It all depends on how he plays. Shae Weber for example he is very good positionally and with stick work. He is seen as a "physical" defender because of his size but IMO he is more of a positional defender. I feel that Weber could play until his mid 40s. It all depends on how Myers adapts when his body starts to wear down.

 

[maroon 6]

A lot of smaller players like St. Louis or Kessel had to learn how to avoid unnecessary contact when they were younger (although St. Louis is still a monster on the boards) and may have developed that "6th sense" to increase their longevity. They also aren't expected to throw their body around as much as the big guys, which probably helps them out as well.

I don't know how accurate it is but, Kessel is listed as 6'0 and 200 lbs.

 

[soireeculturelle]

I don't know how accurate it is but, Kessel is listed as 6'0 and 200 lbs.

generally speaking, guys are listed at 2" taller and 5-15lb heavier than they are, at least out of the ones Ive been around.

 

[charlie1]

Are changes in the average height of all players taken into account?

35 year olds were 18-24 quite a while ago. How has the average height changed during the last 15 years?

this^^

Defensemen have gotten larger in recent years, correct? If that wasn't taken into account it's difficult to know how much of this is a durability effect vs just changes in the average height of a defensemen.

 

[plusandminus]

20 year olds today are overall taller than 20 year olds some decade ago. So not only hockey players playing in the NHL, but overall "white" persons in countries like USA and Sweden gets taller and taller. It has been that way for decades.

So to an extent there is a natural explanation if the veteran players overall are of lesser height than the younger players.

Wouldn't it be better to study the height of certain year groups of NHL players.
Take players born in 1970. Look how their height distrubution was when they were 26 years old. Look at the same players ten years later and check to see if it looks like the smaller ones have "survived" longer than the taller ones.
Do the same for other years. Look for patterns.

If I was to guess, I would guess that smaller players last longer.

 

[Franck]

20 year olds today are overall taller than 20 year olds some decade ago. So not only hockey players playing in the NHL, but overall "white" persons in countries like USA and Sweden gets taller and taller. It has been that way for decades.

This is actually no longer the case. The growth in average height has stagnated in developed countries and your average 20 year old in 2013 will not be significantly taller than what the average was in 1993.

If the average hockey player has grown in height since then, it is more indicative of selection bias in youth hockey than it is of a growth in height of the population at large.

 

[Namejs]

This is actually no longer the case. The growth in average height has stagnated in developed countries and your average 20 year old in 2013 will not be significantly taller than what the average was in 1993.

Do you have a source for this by any chance?

 

[Rekin]

I don't have a source, but that's exactly how I've understood it to be as well. The standard of life has reached a point where fundamental changes aren't happening anymore and so people reach their growth potential already to a large extent with few room to improve without artificial means.

 

[plusandminus]

This is actually no longer the case. The growth in average height has stagnated in developed countries and your average 20 year old in 2013 will not be significantly taller than what the average was in 1993.

If the average hockey player has grown in height since then, it is more indicative of selection bias in youth hockey than it is of a growth in height of the population at large.

I have read that it still increases. Maybe there are different studies showing somewhat different results. I've read that the increase have been about 2 inches during the last 40 years, i.e. 0.5 inches per decade.

The players we should study should be in their mid-30s or older now, meaning they were 20 years old in year 1999 or earlier. So IF there has been a recent stagnation, it won't matter for the study.
If we study players born in the years 1950-79, they would have been 20 year old in the years 1970-99, and in their mid-30s in the years 1985-2014.

Anyway, it shouldn't matter as a study on the subject should focus on comparing players born during the same year (or so) with each other, like I suggested.

 

[charlie1]

If the average hockey player has grown in height since then, it is more indicative of selection bias in youth hockey than it is of a growth in height of the population at large.

Yeah I don't think the effect is due to growth in the average size of young men, but rather the average size of rookie defensemen. Has there been no study showing this??